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  • #135,341
  • May 28, 2015 9:24am May 28, 2015 9:24am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Magic..however I doubt it can crack the spike. {image} {image}

something wrong about this man but can u explain the reason behind this move mr.hathor ... moves or opposite to the data ..... BTW ur guess on those spikes & cracks ???
Om Namah Shivaayae
  • #135,342
  • May 28, 2015 9:29am May 28, 2015 9:29am
On the move although there is some remarkable EUR strength noticed within EU

USDOLLAR D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0057.png Size: 67 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #135,343
  • May 28, 2015 9:35am May 28, 2015 9:35am
Quoting USD-Bear
On the move although there is some remarkable EUR strength noticed within EU USDOLLAR D1: {image}
Dear USD-Bear!

Do You think it's a possible 'C' point of descending AB=CD?
Thank You in advance!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,344
  • May 28, 2015 9:46am May 28, 2015 9:46am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Dear USD-Bear! Do You think it's a possible 'C' point of descending AB=CD? Thank You in advance!
Hi hathor,
sorry, I'm not knowledgeable in that respect
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #135,345
  • May 28, 2015 9:57am May 28, 2015 9:57am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} Hi hathor, sorry, I'm not knowledgeable in that respect
Never mind..it was a wrong question, should have check you images first. Pure and simple, only horizontal lines & channels.
Thank you for the effort!

Quoting annunaki
{quote} something wrong about this man but can u explain the reason behind this move mr.hathor ... moves or opposite to the data ..... BTW ur guess on those spikes & cracks ???
On the technical side:
- nearly finished AB=CD from the 1.14xx top
- quite extended move without (extended) retest of previous levels
- monitoring supply/demand & short:long ratio -> these are indicating rather up move/ranging market
- tomorrow comes important data, market doesn't like to hurry before that..rather load positions at a level, which can be raped/leaved behind in a blink of an eye
-...and so on

On the fundamental side:
- no I can't, sorry. I'm not an expert of fundamentals, rather monitor the whole picture to understand the basic moves. Others can give you very nice explanations, I've burned myself enough time to leave it to them. Sometimes the news are already priced in (these infos are quite expensive, when you see it on FF for free, you are already late...), sometimes a green data can be bad...so I stick to visuals and math.

Spikes:
Spike can turn the market, but sometimes it shows just a retest of a previous level. When the retest is happening during a candle change, than the spike actually indicates the retest and not a turn. So when new candle 'born', it can start it's trip to the previous spike's top/bottom.

My favorite, when the market draws a triangle from spikes:
-> the first spike is full of orders against the spike
-> the second attempt to the spike's end is full either (maybe a double top? - asks the retail trader)
-> when third attempt coming -> the triangle can be finished anytime:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spike_triangle.png Size: 20 KB


Quoting hathor
{quote} Magic..however I doubt it can crack the spike. {image} {image}
Failed with this statement.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 05_28_EurUsd_#4.png Size: 28 KB


PM: Sorry kenfen69 if I'm "overspamming" this thread, please PM me, if I should push the brake.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,346
  • May 28, 2015 11:57am May 28, 2015 11:57am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Failed with this statement. {image} PM: Sorry kenfen69 if I'm "overspamming" this thread, please PM me, if I should push the brake.
Watch out in the next 2 weeks you get too focus in micro TFs. My 2 cents, we are in mayor leauges mode until June fed so lots of chop in micro TFS with major quick and fast moves with rates...sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,347
  • May 28, 2015 12:08pm May 28, 2015 12:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Watch out in the next 2 weeks you get too focus in micro TFs. My 2 cents, we are in mayor leauges mode until June fed so lots of chop in micro TFS with major quick and fast moves with rates...sisse
I will..I will! Thank you for the helping hands!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,348
  • May 28, 2015 12:41pm May 28, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} For me we have an ambiguous situation now. We have a higher high on the hourly which says to me we might make a higher low somewhere before 816 and then at least one more higher high. BUT we had a big swing down with lots of momentum on the H4, which says to me that that won't be the last low. So I'd rather look for shorts between 1060 and 1170 if I can find a good setup. Of course we have to go higher on the hourly to get there first, but although I see the potential for a bottoming pattern to form...
Check Check by a pip or two. Looking toppy now on 5 and 15 tfs. Shorted tap back at 939
  • #135,349
  • May 28, 2015 1:05pm May 28, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Check Check by a pip or two. Looking toppy now on 5 and 15 tfs. Shorted tap back at 939
Okay half off right there for 10, and the rest is set to b/e to see if we can get a runner going for the next swing down.
  • #135,350
  • May 28, 2015 1:53pm May 28, 2015 1:53pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Okay half off right there for 10, and the rest is set to b/e to see if we can get a runner going for the next swing down.
Huh..taking the half & set to b/e the rest was a smart move.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,351
  • May 28, 2015 1:55pm May 28, 2015 1:55pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} On the monthly it took four years. On the daily you never got a retrace to that area after the momentum bar until the next weekly swing up. If you are using that four year period as the top , then I'd (which.)
You sound honestly excited of discovering a tool that make sense. Nice indeed, nothing like finding that Eureka moment that make trading finally "click" ....I still remember mine. For some is a fib, a mofu, a s/r, for other is a stochastic or etc but the result is always the same. Not all roads leads to Rome, you just need to choose the right one even if your TA tools are sound.

I think you still are missing my point. I wasn't talking about the tools you are using or your tiny micro Tfs ( in this particular point it will be impossible to convince me to that anyone can make it in the long run with manual trading alone ... but that is just me and my experience so ignore this bit) , I was talking about technical consistency in both how to define a swing and how to define the correlation within TFs..... It applies to a 1s chart or a 1 year chart !!!!

In simple words, without adding context (macro direction) and without defining the proper correlated swings in your case for the fibs, the retracement and the extensions become weak for real consistent and sustainable trading in the long run.

Just to play a test, you posted some calls, add a clean chart with a slow stochastic or a Macd or Cci or whatever simple indicator and I would bet you that you would have +/- the same results. Point being? The money is in the direction not in the trigger. Even if fibs, mofu, s/r, a slow stochastic or whatever could be better ( or worst) for the actual placement of the trade..,,

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,352
  • May 28, 2015 2:01pm May 28, 2015 2:01pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}[...]
Just to play a test, you posted some calls, add a clean chart with a slow stochastic or a Macd or Cci or whatever simple indicator and I would bet you that you would have +/- the same results. Point being? The money is in the direction not in the trigger. Even if fibs, mofu, s/r, a slow stochastic or whatever could be better ( or worst) for the actual placement of the trade..,,
this is gold.
follow the flow
  • #135,353
  • May 28, 2015 2:34pm May 28, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} technical consistency in both how to define a swing and how to define the correlation within TFs... without adding context (macro direction) and without defining the proper correlated swings in your case for the fibs, the retracement and the extensions become weak for real consistent and sustainable trading in the long run. Just to play a test, you posted some calls, add a clean chart with a slow stochastic or a Macd or Cci or that you would have +/- the same results.. The money is in the direction not in the trigger
Actually to tell the truth, I do use stochastics (or rather at set of them) as a filter, although I usually don't show them on the charts I post. Obviously those calls that I listed were a small subset of all the possible setups that occurred, and some of the filters for those calls (as opposed to others) was that when I put a fib where I think a top is (based on H, LH, LL) it has to be

a) in a place where I think there should be strong enough resistance to get some green pips at least equal to the risk, before being s/o and

b) my stochastics set has to look a certain way, part of which is that they have to be in oversold for a fib at the top (or vice versa of course).

I always define the swing upon which I place the fib as a high, then lh, then ll where the stochs are at the top and look a certain way, and the fib goes from the top high to the lh, with the stochastics confirming the highs/lows (or vice versa of course.) And I have one more directional filter as well.

So I'm not sure what you mean by defining proper swings, because H, LH, LL is the classic definition that I know of.

You won't have the same results without the fib. The point of using the fib is to get an idea where you can expect the move to go to, which the stochastics/cci whatever don't give you. By watching how price behaves at the fib lines, you can see it it's 'working' or not, in the sense that price is hitting those lines, stalling and bouncing where it normally does, returning to where it normally does, and continuing. That is how you get an idea if's safe to scalp there. (For example, suppose you have a higher tf fib and you see price bounce strongly at 32, and at 50. Well what do you think will happen at 68 most times?) Of course I also check if where the fib suggests price is going matches what I think is a reasonable target area, but then what the fib gives you is an idea how price is going to move as it tries to reach that target area.

I agree with this only partly. Depends on your risk tolerance. I don't like to go 200 pips into drawdown just because the big trend is down and I think it will eventually reverse. I'd rather take a shot where I think resistance is AND where I get a good trigger (fibs and price action) where I can risk only a few pips, take some off the table, and see if the rest turns into a runner. Most times I get stopped out on the second lot at b/e but I don't lose any money in those cases and there's always the next time to try.
  • #135,354
  • May 28, 2015 2:35pm May 28, 2015 2:35pm
Quoting hathor
{quote} Huh..taking the half & set to b/e the rest was a smart move.
Yeah, I know. I though it was worth a shot at getting a runner from a possible double top there.... Prolly gonna tank now that it's taken out all the stops of people like me trying that...
  • #135,355
  • May 28, 2015 2:36pm May 28, 2015 2:36pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}( in this particular point it will be impossible to convince me to that anyone can make it in the long run with manual trading alone ... but that is just me and my experience so ignore this bit)
It is really impossible for me to ignore this bit from someone like you sir.
Just to make sure I understood your statement correctly:
You are saying that one needs an automated trading tool to make it in the long run, right?
Not that I'm asking for the tool, I just would like to know whether that was your statement
  • #135,356
  • May 28, 2015 2:44pm May 28, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Yeah, I know. I though it was worth a shot at getting a runner from a possible double top there.... Prolly gonna tank now that it's taken out all the stops of people like me trying that...
Don't get me wrong, as a scalper I think it was a reasonable try/trade (imho), but it was even more reasonable to defend yourself at current circumstances! Smart move with positive outcome, no need to be sad/upset!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,357
  • May 28, 2015 2:54pm May 28, 2015 2:54pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} You won't have the same results without the fib. The point of using the fib is to get an idea where you can expect the move to go to, which the stochastics/cci whatever don't give you.
With all the respect to your opinion and strategy (and well done if it works for you), I personally stopped using fibs (with all their kinds and sets) long ago. My only target is the opposing aria of supply/demand or, else, at b/even.
  • #135,358
  • May 28, 2015 10:43pm May 28, 2015 10:43pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ... Just to play a test, you posted some calls, add a clean chart with a slow stochastic or a Macd or Cci or whatever simple indicator and I would bet you that you would have +/- the same results. Point being? The money is in the direction not in the trigger. Even if fibs, mofu, s/r, a slow stochastic or whatever could be better ( or worst) for the actual placement of the trade..,, sisse
Dear Sisse,

I read a lot of your postings and I think this is the first time I approach you directly by a reply. I agree, most of those indicators look at the past price movements and calculate possible future moves, somehow, often providing comparable if not the same results as other indicators.

And now my question: How is that different when you use the price directly ? You also use the past price movements to calculate possible future moves. Well, compared to indicators maybe not that laggy. Why does it work so much better then ? And what is the correct method to predict price direction in Tfs S1 - M1 ?

I am looking forward to your reply.

Best Regards,
Verified
  • #135,359
  • May 29, 2015 12:24am May 29, 2015 12:24am
Buddy plsf trade the Nzd/chf short to make profit today .ty now and check ur result
  • #135,360
  • May 29, 2015 12:33am May 29, 2015 12:33am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Never mind..it was a wrong question, should have check you images first. Pure and simple, only horizontal lines & channels. Thank you for the effort! {quote} On the technical side: - nearly finished AB=CD from the 1.14xx top - quite extended move without (extended) retest of previous levels - monitoring supply/demand & short:long ratio -> these are indicating rather up move/ranging market - tomorrow comes important data, market doesn't like to hurry before that..rather load positions at a level, which can be raped/leaved behind in a blink...
Great charts, especially the one showing the PA after the spike.
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