Reflexivity in the USD

I would normally say don't trade right now as PA is shit and I usually only trade US session but this month I have been up substantially so I don't mind taking a highly speculative trade here that is not one of the 3 setups I usually look for.

If I lose here then this only confirms the notion that its terrible to trade when there is no PA, or vol and guessing on direction rather than waiting. However this is only 3 contracts so much smaller than I normally trade. Well off to bed hopefully when I wake up late I am in the money on my limit shorts in dollar and current long in EUR

All the best.

Woke up to see nothing happened which is expected today. While I was sleeping, I was sweating getting stopped out but set the SL correctly for now and was able to avoid it by 2 ticks!! lol

So still long EUR and waiting for a small pop and dollar orders are still on the book waiting for execution.

Asia took me out at a loss of 17 ticks. Will wait for better PA and sit on my hands until London.

I'm curious as to why you are trying to pick a bottom. The euro is at the very least neutral, leaning towards bearish. Can you provide some insight into why you're bullish?

I will wait for a clean quick break on Dollar to determine a long or short here on EUR. I was expecting a small spike on EUR but as soon at Asia opened we are already down 30 ticks.
Durable goods should see Dollar resume its bull trend where I will just ride the wave. Or we get a breakdown here as I am leaning towards if we break below 96.50

Hey Stewi nice to meet you. I agree with you it looks as if I am trying to pick a bottom in EURO which the first trade this week was not successful. I did deviate from my normal setups I usually take which are ABCD reversals, Pivot range trades for US session, or failure of a breakout in the pivot range trades to go short/long

This trade was really a spec bet in that certain FIB Levels were going to hold for a PTA (potential trade area) and dollar would fail here.

I used to be huge into fundamental data when I was crushing AUD short, but found myself more and more relying less on macro economic themes and just finding pivots to trade. I rely heavily on USD futures to supplement EUR positioning and this was one of those areas for a PTA. Now when I took this trade I had only two things going for me which was RSI overbought on Dollar and we were 'close' to a key resistance which has now broke per the last pic above. Had I waited for a solid confirmation such as letting the dollar bounce around this tight range and either found its breakout like it did here or let it close below Friday's pivot level I would of saved myself 17 ticks.

If you notice the pic below the dollar was finding support most of Sunday and today at this pivot level and simply could not close/continue lower. That was my mistake in not waiting for confirmation and taking a hunch trade.

Do I believe EUR will continue to decline lower as this Greece mess continues? Sure. It would be in my best interest to just ride this current wave but I have slowly transitioned my trading to only trade US hours where I trade size and get in/out for a few hours. This trade really was terrible when I look back at it and I got slack from my trading group also on how they knew I was 'testing the water' here. Being out of the trade and waiting makes me clearly see that I could of waited for confirmation as dollar finished on its highs on Friday, and the possible default is still present.

So long story short this was a terrible feeler trade in which I always tell traders not to trade certain sessionS and wait for all the confirmations to align in your favor before clicking the mouse. And then I go off and do it myself

Hey man, nice to meet you too. I enjoy reading well-reasoned, logical posts on FF, so kudos

Yeah these markets have been tricky lately. But I suppose they always are I agree the euro may potentially head lower across the board.

I was tempted to go long, but stuck with my shorts upon seeing some divergences in both PA and RSI followed by breaks. I'm waiting to see if there will be a bounce at the 40 RSI level, but a break below that and all bets are off. Here's my daily chart.

I look at dollar indices as well but am still trying to figure out what drives their respective PA's.

PS: I use 20 periods on the RSI, which I've found helps reduce noise.

Curious why you think durable goods will see Dollar resume it's bull trend when the last 7 results have been below forecast and this month the forecast is for an improvement on previous month?

This is a classic case of my ADD in the failure to slow down and type correctly. I should of added a comma instead of the period as the second portion of the sentence is where I am leaning towards. I should of stated or we get a breakdown here as I am leading toward THIS if we break below 96.50. Thanks for pointing that out to me dab, I need to slow down when I type because when I re read my posts sometimes it looks convoluted or worse yet playing both sides.

I used to focus on AUDfut/spot and it took me a solid 3-4 months understanding their economy. As for dollar PA i always look at the most active times when Dollar is trading to find entry exit points which usually is 30 min before US open until 10:30 est, and then I break before coming back near the last hour of US.

That is interesting you say that as I used to have 20/80 on my RSI which really showed major exhaustion points to hopefully find cleaner entries on the reversal. I don't use it as much unless I am trading position or more than a week hold.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...mentid=1680798

Lol! I didn't see Dano's post until a few minutes ago. As I shouted on his profile if you're going long EURO and he is shorting most likely you will see the debit. Great call again Dano. I should of viewed this before taking that long in eur for 17ticks

....Nooo!

I just dropped my month's profit doing that...

Haha I even said that to a few friends and they basically told me I should just take the money out of my pocket and throw it in the trash. It was a bad trade all around from the oh hey I am having a solid quarter its ok to speculate more than usual, to the lack of PA.

Dollar just crossed above the 50% fib from the YTD HI at 100.785 to the 5/15 low wave at 93.155. Even though I don't put enormous weight being I only trade on intra day setups, this is definitely on the radars of everyone now. Lets see if a daily close in US will confirm or reject this level

I will see what durable goods brings before chasing.

So it was USD/JPY that triggered everything. I have not been paying attention in so long on JPY futures but we just took out a new low. Big implications if JPY trades lower now for the next month or two

Watching EUR really drop like a stone here and dollar crushing through light stops is tempting to go the other way but I will sit..

However, 1.0876-55 are my next long PTA zones. If durable goods disappoints we could see USD test Asia open at 96.54

I wont get ahead of myself this time and try to bottom pick eur here. Waiting to see how eur trades at the levels above

EDIT: WELL shit orders came thorough and took out resistance on tick. Will wait for a restest @ 1.09 for confirmation long

so far so good

EDIT failure to test successfully so no long consideration until the pta zones mentioned earlier. Off to bed as I don't feel like watching paint dry. I will just wait for US pa.

All the best

PTA zones now being tested for a EURfut long 1.0876-55 will look for entry but right now dollar is not finding much selling here. Might have to wait it out.

EDIT just went long two contracts at 1.081. no SL set at the moment and will wait for EOD for onfimation on a short pop here

PTA zone for US intra day held up and now in a slight profit. Not looking for a position swing play, only looking to play the hi end of the 8:30EST range between 1.0930-35
Moved longs SL to BE

Out at BE.