G Trades

Hi- Please skip to post 7 for examples of the current system, the rules etc are in post 71.
Current results-
Nov 2015- 6.51% growth
Dec 2015- 43.56% growth
Jan 2016- 17.59% growth
Feb 2016- 15.53% growth

Thanks

M


Hi All,

Thank you for taking the time to look at my journal- please post questions/comments etc- there is always something I could learn.

Long time lurker, few posts posted.

Time to start a journal- to document my trades, my trading thoughts etc.

The reason for this thread- I blew another account on Friday! And I hate that.

On reflection, I am making the same mistakes over and over again- and as a wise man once said- Insanity is doing the same thing, and expecting a different outcome.

I know the mistakes I am making- they fall into the category 'Not following the rules!'

So this journal will document my upcoming trades in an attempt to prevent taking trades when I shouldn't!

I will also go into more detail about my style/system, what 'G Trades' are.

So here is a picture with explanation of my trades from Friday 22nd May, and where I went wrong. This is a live account.



1) Buy signal generated- trade taken, but was stopped out for a loss (around 3% loss). However this was a GL trade, meaning that all the rules were followed.

2) Sell signal generated- trade taken, the trade got wipe-sawed quite badly, and my emotions kicked in with me closing the trade at the worst time (almost the highest price- around 8% loss)). If I had followed the rules the trade would've been closed at BE or a small loss. This started as a GL trade, but became a BL trade because I closed early.

3) Buy signal generated- but I took the signal at the bar open, instead of at the bar close, I also then closed before the next signal was given- I closed the trade again at the worst possible price- almost the low of the bar! This is a BL trade- the worst kind of trades and the kind of trades that blow accounts!!!!

4) No buy signal generated- the trade was taken because my emotions were at an all time high!! (All for the wrong reason) It was a revenge trade, and should never have been taken- hence it is a BL and it eventually got margin call.

If I had followed the rules- I would've ended the day with a positive outcome- the sell signal which I did not take went for over 100pips!

Rules to follow

G Trades.

The rules are simple.

1) 15min GBP/JPY chart.
2) Indicator- Heiken_Ashi_Ma_T3, setting are 15/50
3) Trade European open and London open- this is when the orders flood the market, and generate momentum/volatility- which we need to make money.
4) Trade the signals generated by the indicator. Yellow arrow for buy trades, and Light Blue arrow for sell trades. The idea being that you always want to be trading with the trend (Heard that a 1000 times). TP can either be a fixed number of pips/% of account, or can be the opposite signal.

And that's it- there is obviously money management- but I clearly haven't worked that part out.



FOOT NOTE
The way I think about is that the individual bars are like the waves, small movements up and down. And the Indicator bars are like the tides, big movements of water up and down. As long as I am trading with the tide (Indicator bars) I should be able to make money! (Notice I said should- because I am still trying!!)

G Trades.

So what are G Trades.

Moving forward I will be categorizing my trades into 4 different types- GW, GL, BW, BL.

There are Good trades, Bad trades, Winning trades, and Losing trades.

G Trades- are trades that follow the rules- these trades are the types of trades that need to be traded to succeed long term. Professional take these trades.

B Trades- are trades that disobey or ignore the rules- these types of trades blow accounts, Amateurs take these types of trades.

W/L Trades- are trade outcomes- either the trade closes for a profit (W) or for a loss (L).

The objective of this journal is to make me accountable for taking only G Trades- irrespective of the outcome (W/L).

I have never had a G trade cause me to blow an account- it has always been a B Trade.

So the simple answer is to not take B Trades!

Demo Trade Explorer attached, but will sync on Monday when the market is open.

Til then.

Hey Michael,

Friday GBP pairs were tough. I followed my system rules completely and lost 1.25R (but because of my special Rag2Riches MM rules, it's 50% loss; see my thread for more details).

But if you were in the market at that time, you would have intuitively felt the order flow was a bit unusual. It wasn't like the typical kind of spikey/enthusiastic movements price tends to exhibit before breaking out or around that time in the morning. Prices were moving really slowly, often pausing at each level for long periods of time. There were some spikes up, but there were never any follow through.

I think following rules is very important and I myself did follow my rules and lost $$ yesterday. But I think the goal here is to refine these rules over time. Now I am thinking, how might I start quantifying these intuitive observations and make them into actionable decision rules. It's a challenge for sure, and I would need to observe and test a lot more in real time before I can come to any sort of conclusion. But observing Friday's price action was a first step in that direction.

Don't take the losses too harshly, and if you blow your account in 4 trades, you are either using a crazy MM (and are mentally prepared for it with a good system to boot) or you are using a bad MM. Try to survive longer trading Live first, so you can get exposure from the market without losing too much $. Grimes (author of Science and Art of TA) estimates that traders need about 3 years of live trading exposure before they can start breaking even and making any money. I initially rejected that idea when I first started out. I thought I was special and I could do it in a year or less. Now 4 years and 10,000 hours of exposure later, I start to see that it's true lol. In fact, the more intelligent you are, the most likely trading will trip you up because of ego traps.

Good luck with your trading! Drop me a message if you need any help/discuss anything. You seem very serious about your trading. Look forward to your success.

Hi Shellsnail,

Thanks for your comments.

I agree that all GBP pairs were moving unusually on Friday- the beginning of the week was much easier to trade. Having said that the system would've made money if the rules were followed- which they were not. My bad.

'Quantifying intuitive observations'- as you say- would be very difficult to convert into actionable decision rules. And would be very hard to distinguish from emotionally driven trading decisions- which from my experience are generally wrong. I was convinced that GBP/JPY was going to go up on Friday.

I agree my trading on Friday was very poor- 4 trades to blow up an account- Thanks for writing it like that, I never thought about it like that. So my MM is clearly very wrong.

The trade that killed my account was definitely a revenge trade, because after placing the the trade I turned off the PC and only checked the trade the following morning when it was already too late.

Sadly, I have been trading on and off since 2008- did well initially, (with initial profits paying for a trip to NZ). I have recently started trading seriously again, but I keep breaking the rules of the system which I believe to be profitable.

Again, thank you for your encouragement, I will drop by your thread and have a look.

M

So today is pretty much a Bank Holiday everywhere around the world....

I know my system works best when there is a flood of orders coming into the market- this is the reason I look to trade the European/London open.

So no trading for me today, I have been burnt in the past by trading when it's Bank Holidays.

Til tomorrow.........

Edit:

If a trade was taken yesterday- it would've been a simple GW, with no headaches!

But I am still happy with my decision- not trading on Public holidays- if you want to be a Professional in this game- you have to trade when Professionals Trades.

M

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

So I'm back.... back to where I started, round and round we go. LOL

I have been doing really well lately, until the GBP/JPN did a run away this week and my account bombed out.

The lesson, I have learnt is that my weak point in trading is taking a loss/setting a SL. So I have revived this Journal to try and track my trades, and force myself to set SL, and accept that losses are a part of trading. (This sounds really basic as I am writing- however it is REALLY a weak point in my trading.)

So moving forward I will document my trades and set a SL on every trade.

Here goes..

M

1ST Trade-
SL placed- 30 PIPS
TP placed- 25 PIPS

Here goes.....

Trade complete. GW Trade

+25 Pips = 2.5% gain on account.



M

Fridays Trade- 30 Oct 2015.

Buy signal given within time brackets. However candle over 80pips.
So waited for pull back on 5min chart and trying to get in a little lower.

Pull back to previous highs, and 50%of initial buy candle.

Risk/Reward- 6% of account.



M

That went quickly- trade stopped out.



Enjoy the weekend all.

Hi,

Quick recap- Current Running Total -5pips (since 29 Oct)

Looking back at Friday's trade- I am happy with my exit- because as mentioned earlier the main reason for the Journal is too ensure that I place SL on every trade. However I am not too happy with my entry- when I placed the trade, I was thinking that the volatility was too high and that it was going to make a significant retracement- which it did. I should have waited for things to calm down.

Next week sees the start of a new week and a new month- so the plan is to have G Trades all week.

M

Trade on.

TP- 25Pips
SL- 35Pips (emergency SL, will close earlier if reverse signal given)



M

Trade closed early.

186.00 seems like big resistance.
GBP manufacturing PMI is coming up.

Basically emotionally driven- fear.

10.2 pips profit.
+2.4% gain.

November running total: 11.2pips



M

So... Trade would've gone all the way to full profit!

They say trading is driven by Fear and Greed- my overriding emotion is definitely Fear.

On reflection- I have closed many trades early due to fear, only to watch the market move to my TP. This is definitely something I need to work on.

On a side note I have set a goal of 100 to 150 profit per month- which would mean a growth of 20%-30% per month.

M

Trade on.

TP-25pips.
SL- 32pips (emergency SL, will close earlier if opposite signal given).



Trade not looking great at the moment.

Thinking about yesterday's trade- I am not happy that I closed the trade early- I thought (and was driven by fear) that I was 'protecting my profits'- but in the long run I am sabotaging myself because I won't close a losing trade early. I would always take a full loss, so why I am happy taking partial profits?

Consistency is the hardest part in this game- I know I can be profitable with this system- I just need to follow my guideline/rules every time. This journal is already paying dividends- the reflection is helping.

M

After being negative for the past 2.5 hours, a reverse signal has been given, So I closed the position manually.

Trade closed at -16.2pips
-3.7% loss

Running total Nov: -6.2pips

(this highlights why closing a trade with partial profits is sabotaging my returns- if I had left yesterdays trade I would currently have a running total of +8.9Pips)



Until tomorrow.....

M

Morning/Hi/Hey,

Trade taken.

TP: 25pips (as usual)
SL: 35pips (below recent low, is emergency stop, will close earlier if reverse signal given)



Trade progression to follow.

M

Trade closed

TP hit +25Pips (+5.9% on account)

Running Pip Total: November- = +18.8Pips



Thanks, until tomorrow

M

Hi All,

No Trade yesterday- no signal generated in the time window.

Missed the BIG drop!