Reflexivity in the USD

That did not work out well. Had the oppertunity to get out near .60 but of course I was away from my computer. Took a loss on that one but will go back to the drawing board and wait for better setups instead of the 'lets test the waters' trade.

Key levels I am watching given the choppiness the last couple days. Looking for either a failure here to get short on US open or if we break above this level resistance level most likely we will have a retest and possible continuation higher. Either way not going to do a 'feeler bet' tonight like I did a few days ago. I will stick to my 3 setups that never let me down before pulling the trigger this time.

EUR levels to watch for buying/selling
1.1149 if we break above this level US should retest it and ether have a 2 step entry long or failure for continued range trading
1.1113 If we are at this level come US open i WILL sell for a possible retest of lower part of range the last few days.

Interesting to note ES is failing to break above yesterdays us session low and has traded lower, this could be telling for dollar going lower in US trade as correlation between the two instruments has been pretty strong the last 10 trading days. I talked to one of the best ES traders I know and he stated we could flush lower on ES by Friday given a major ABCD reversal that started at 2134. Either way I will wait for lower ES and the above EUR to play out before picking the long or short side.

95Buy stops set at 1.1145 and 1.1150 for EURfut as Dollar futures US session is particularly weak and we are trading below yesterdays US session low and close to a flush to fill a gap lower. Also Dollar failed to stage a rally along with ES today which is another reason I am longing EURO here.

RSI is overbought. Will have to see what this one does but this looks like a great push higher for EURO if dollar can close near or below 95.24

Cancelled all pendings on EUR for right now as Dollar was able to hold the line EOD and continue sideways. It still closed below yesterday US close but really that level is irreverent given the range its had the last couple days. I am still optimistic that EUR may spike a bit here tomorrow possibly and also like the fact DANO has similar setup which he is on point the majority of the time with the wave analysis as well. Honesty if you're not following him and you trade EURO then you're missing great charting.

On a side note I was thinking of starting a small forex account along with my main futures account to show major PROS currency futures offer over forex given the questions I got over the last month while away on the reason ppl should switch.
What other questions for those who are currently trading forex but looking to switch to futures do you have?
As the summer month are upon us we could see SHITTY trading going on and it might be a great time to write the Ebook I always wanted that talks about currency futures trading and how to get started in it. Hmm I will see but I do have more time on my hands where I can be doing productive work vs. watching netflix when markets are dead lol..

Dollar broke below that key level I was watching all day Thursday. Looking to see it trade lower and fill the gap. Upset i missed this small surge in EUR but I have another long opp coming up as EUR looks to test yesterdays us high. If we find support here I am plunging long in euro for US trade all day. Hoping we don't have a low vol tomorrow given the extended weekend. We do have the CB's all day so I am expecting some exciting news wires come across. EITHER way will wait a bit more here to get long EUR at a more advantageous price.

White chart is CME us hours on dollar.

Went Long EURfut here at 1.1155 for the following reasons.

1. Looking at the tick chart I did a simple fib hi/low and we retraced back down to the 618 and held.
2. Also plotted the B wave tick high and low and we have crossed above which is a great signal
3. I have been bullish eur the last couple days pricing wise I was not on point. Today feels different like we will get this spike finally.
4. We traded lower close to the US hi from Today and I didn't want to nit pick a few ticks so decided on the 618 for long entry.
5. Dollar broke the level B wave top and looks to trade lower to fill part of the gap.

Either way this is a low RR trade and I have set my stop at 1.1149 6 points which is minimal for the upswing I expect.
I could be wrong and we could still test US session high from Thursday but I don't mind taking a small long here on this level as well.

Moved to BE
quick 15pts made, tempted to close but I feel this can run. If not, I refuse to take a loss here.

Dollar itching to break lower here. On tick chart it has broken the main support and big orders starting to battle here.

Out at BE. That was quick up 30 points only for london to take me out in 15min NICE LOL....
Well I will have to wait once more.

Alright lets try this again in at 1.1170 as we are finishing up this hour lower on Dollar after that London pop. Stop loss is not placed yet.

Finally you bastards!!! dollar finally gave way on tick chart and the 5 lot and 4 lots started flooding. SL at BE again.
set TP at 1.1198

EDIT no tp now as I want to see what happens when 112 is triggered

Dollar is at support here so I am looking at PA and might just get out of the long but still think we can test 112 here for a failure or small pop before dump.
RSI on 1hr is approaching overbought as well on EURO

Finally on Ts we are getting 10.30.10 orders coming through this should see us test 112 shortly.

Out at 112 as RSI on 1hr is above 70 and don't want to lose profit going into a bundle of CB presidents.
Also been up since Thursday US open so need the rest.

Crazy London session, should of made 50 ticks on my first entry but set my stop to tight, but its ok because made my nut in this 30 tick move. Might be up for US open but not sure. Best of luck all EUR may go higher in US but this move since Asia was insane given the light data. Might want to wait for a minor pullback here as dollar is going to find support at the levels mentioned in previous post

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well holy shit guess I was right about the dump and getting out in time. Went long again ON EURO at 1.1166 here as we hit another key fib for a possible move higher. Dollar has recovered and now testing new resistance of yesterdays US session low price which could fail. This move that just happen over the last few minutes could be a wire that I have not read but it was swift. Lets see. No stop set yet trying to gauge level but it most likely will be put inh at .50 but will see further PA and orders coming in to gauge this move.

And I was almost asleep to before I HEARD THE ALERT. Now I know what parents of newborns feel like with the random wake ups. lol

now at .74 set to BE I am on a freeroll here and back to sleep. Night all lol.

Woke up to see the eur get slaughtered. Now I am glad I set at BE the quick entry when prices came down. Good news is I got some sleep and am ready for the weekend to get off my ass and workout after 2 months. Best of luck all this weekend and I will start the futures ebook and get the ball rolling on the forex acct to show the main differences and what I believe are cons in forex trading vs. currency futures.

Have a great weekend all.

I enjoy reading your posts, even though I think you may be off re the euro in the near term

Do you put equal weight in fundamentals or do you primarily rely on technicals for your analyses?

Have a good workout; I know what it's like to fall off the ball and get back in.

Monday morning analysis and PTA zone for USD.

Obviously dollar had a major surge the last couple hours of trade on Friday. This not only caused alot of range traders to cover but also possibly established new long term positions going into possible fed hike in on June 17th. Although I am in the camp that this is unlikely, Yellen has been telling the market that a path to normalization needs to happen, and such bad Q1 data was transitory where she expects a pickup towards the end of the year. I don't trade credit or interest rates futures so I won't pretend to know what she will do next month.

Dollar is at a crucial point here. Most saw the Friday surge as a renewed interest in the dollar, but the reality based on COT report traders are still fading USD. Long position $ stands at 27.0 bn its lowest level since Q314. Technically we finished near a very interesting level on Friday. Currently we are trading right near a major C wave low from previous trade. This level stands at 96.63. Dollar is also overbought on the following TF's

4HR: RSI 70. Also showing a slightly lower reading from May 19 when we topped out near 74.
1HR " 61 However, this is natural as it is coming down from the recent surge on Friday. Could see a small pop to retest overbought and decide
DAILY: 56 I don't rely on daily too often as it is very delayed reaction on RSI and can stay overbought/oversold for months like it did from Aug/Oct 14


I am short biased right now on dollar at these levels but with CPI coming in line, Yellen talking up a hike later this year, and a possible beat in durable goods I will await key levels to be broken before going short. Now I don't expect too much on today given a holiday, but my limit orders will be ready in case something happens.

The charts below the one with the gap is US CME hours only. That is why you see a disparity in price as dollar is trading higher than it was on Friday's close. Then the second and third chart are current trade. Here are my short levels for dollar.

EUR ANALYSIS COMING UP SHORTLY.

EURO
I took a small long here in EURfut at 1.0985 with a SL set at 1.0968 (17 ticks). I am doing this because I believe based on the dollar and the massive move we had on Friday we could see a small retest for EUR here. My thought process is it will test the C wave high before deciding to fail once more, and the fact it is bouncing off of the major low (3/13) to HI (5/15) 50% retrace at 1.0972. This could be a quick small loss for me, or a great entry long if dollar fails at Friday's US session high price here.
First charts is cme hours only. Other charts are current trade.