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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #19,201
  • May 23, 2015 2:54am May 23, 2015 2:54am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Didnt you have wrong positions before the euro fall? So what did you see?
No, I did not. I did not trade on Friday.

But I saw a great sell off, I suppose.

5 min chart is attached.

Best,
D.P.
Attached Image
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,202
  • May 23, 2015 2:57am May 23, 2015 2:57am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} No, I did not. I did not trade on Friday. But I saw a great sell off, I suppose. 5 min chart is attached. Best, D.P. {image}
Ok but the 18 may when the EUR/USD were above 1,14 you wrote:

#P.S. We seem to be going to the 1,16 price area.=

In afterhand everyone can see that on the chart. The most important is what you see on beforehand and you were euro BULL at that time
  • #19,203
  • May 23, 2015 2:58am May 23, 2015 2:58am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} I thought you were longing the euro but might be mistaken
Marianne,

My trading desicions are intraday only.
So one day I am long, another day I am short.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,204
  • Edited 3:15am May 23, 2015 3:00am | Edited 3:15am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Marianne, My trading desicions are intraday only. So one day I am long, another day I am short. Best, D.P.
That intraday it changed. you wrote it was going to 1,16 just before it dropped
  • #19,205
  • May 23, 2015 3:01am May 23, 2015 3:01am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote}you wrote: P.S. We seem to be going to the 1,16 price area.
Yes, you are right. It was. I was thinking it would be. But you see we were all dropped down.

My trades are short-time. So they are closed at a day end.

if I were at a long position, I would have a loss by the moment of the sell off.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,206
  • May 23, 2015 3:10am May 23, 2015 3:10am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Yes, you are right. It was. I was thinking it would be. But you see we were all dropped down. My trades are short-time. So they are closed at a day end. if I were at a long position, I would have a loss by the moment of the sell off. D.P.

My point is that one does not see on beforehand the direction by looking at Charts and also not how much it will drop. One keep buying for the big fishes feeding them with food because noone expected it to drop that much. The euro positive will buy and buy feeding the fishes crossing new support levels. It is not easy what you see because one doesnt see
  • #19,207
  • May 23, 2015 3:23am May 23, 2015 3:23am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} My point is that one does not see on beforehand the direction by looking at Charts and also not how much it will drop. One keep buying for the big fishes feeding them with food because noone expected it to drop that much. The euro positive will buy and buy feeding the fishes crossing new support levels. It is not easy what you see because one doesnt see
Oh, Marianne, how you are right.

Of course, globally we can not predict anything at markets.
But once impulse has happened, we can assume that price might go the way it has choosen by impulse.
Then we can estimate a theoretical probability of a chance the price goes to the price level assumed.
And even if we are going the way following the price, we can be always prepared to the "shit happens" chance right the next minute.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,208
  • May 23, 2015 4:02am May 23, 2015 4:02am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} I have been trading forex for many years 20 years why should I trade commodities? There are different ways to trade forex and to earn money.I always follow tecnical advices from my bank and stick to the direction I belive in. That doesnt mean I stick to my positions all the time. I sell and stay out of the market when I am uncertain. I stayed out of the market for a long perod when euro climbed up from 1,046 to 1,1 It is no right og wrong way to play this game. In my opnion it is the fudamentals that succes best. Forex is also a zero game....
Hi Marianne,


nice discussion :-)

When we are talking about pro and cons of FA, TA, etc, it is more for the academic use, because this discussion will stay for the next centuries, I think :-)


Look, when Mario spoke the "all what it takes" speech (to support the EURO), price reversed from a downward move and ended nearly a year later at 399x.

This move had not much to do with fundamentals, because Draghi did nothing in this time. His verbal work was enough to break the bearish sentiment.
At the same time it was already clear, that the FED's QE3 was about to be ended.


It was all about psychology, nothing about fundamentals.



Just a totally other question:

I have since ever asked the technical traders, who think, that there is a secret code in market. A secret code which enables the constantly successful use of e.g. fib-relationships to the pip etc. (for example: the Mofu-believers) the following question:

when there is such a secret code, how comes that the really big fish with really deep pockets have not been able so far to gain this secret code and use it to their advantage in order to gain world domination in a short period of time? If there is a secret code, there surly would be already a computer+program build in order to crack this code. But there is nothing available or talked about.

Now a new question:

We can find very much studies spanning over the last 50 years of trading that go after the question, if Speculators are able to forecast prices.
Many of this studies centre above the COT reports, where traders are grouped into Commercials, large speculators and small speculators (where the retails are in, plus smaller banks and funds).

One can recognise, that there is a tendency to say, that the large speculators are making money, the commercials are losing money (yes, hedging is kind of "cost of doing business), and that the small speculators are the ones losing big.

Many of the studies find, that the losing behavior of the small speculators is due to their lack of proper information.

Now let us look again at the large speculators. Despite the fact, that they are mainly trend followers, momentum riders, one would believe, that they are not only well informed, but also should have good FA skills due to their big research departments.

But we can find, that the group of the large traders is also not very homogeneous when it comes to trade results. It seems, that the largest of the large speculators are doing best.

But anyway, even here we can find periods of losses. Also we can find, that the large speculator group is constantly completely wrong positioned at turning points. They do only survive this due to their deep pockets.

So the question is: when they all have this superb FA departments, why are they not able to get the turning points rights? How can that be? They are the ones with biggest FA departments, and are also very well informed?

And when you compare all that, with us smallish retail trader, trying to figure out FA, can you sense how big we will lose?

JMHO
  • #19,209
  • May 23, 2015 4:20am May 23, 2015 4:20am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Do we change the next minute from long to short? I think that is very diffecult. WE have a short mind and a long mind. Eighter we belive it is going up or vi belive it will go down. I can see very clearly on this forum who is short thinking and who is long thinking. It is the same people that is long now that was long thinking at 1,36
Yes, we can. And Yes, it is difficult. Personally I am trying to think both ways at the same time. Sometimes it allows me to have profit, sometimes it gives me a loss.

Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Do we change the next minute from long to short? I think that is very diffecult. WE have a short mind and a long mind. Eighter we belive it is going up or vi belive it will go down. I can see very clearly on this forum who is short thinking and who is long thinking. It is the same people that is long now that was long thinking at 1,36
It depends on a timeframe the trader trades.
The short-term positions last for no more than 2-3 hours.
But the long-term positions last for months. So those who bought at the lower prices would be waiting for the 1,36 level even if the price drops lower their price they previously entered.

So who is right? the answer is BOTH.

Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} When we are loosing money we stick to our mind that we will earn the loss back and keep buying and buying against the market. This is what the big fishes speculate in that there are buyers there so they can get their money. There is no rational decision and their computeres are just that this will happend. I think it is very diffecult to change the human mind from long to short from one minute to another.
In the short-term trade you might be wrong. If you have had a loss, you should mostly reverse your position and your mind.
In the long-term trade you might be right, but you should check yourself if the trading conditions are the same they were resently.

Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} When we are loosing money we stick to our mind that we will earn the loss back and keep buying and buying against the market. This is what the big fishes speculate in that there are buyers there so they can get their money. There is no rational decision and their computeres are just that this will happend. I think it is very diffecult to change the human mind from long to short from one minute to another.
Big fishes know they are right at any way.
Big fishes trade both ways at the same time.
Big fishes hedge their positions at the option and other derivatives' markets.

That is why we need to see what big fishes do to be with them on their road.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,210
  • May 23, 2015 4:20am May 23, 2015 4:20am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} My point is that one does not see on beforehand the direction by looking at Charts and also not how much it will drop. One keep buying for the big fishes feeding them with food because noone expected it to drop that much. The euro positive will buy and buy feeding the fishes crossing new support levels. It is not easy what you see because one doesnt see

I think it is not right:

speaking about me, I go most of the time against the big fishes at the turning points and I am earning money.

As I laid out earlier: the big fishes are almost ever completely wrong positioned at the turning points


I am not saying that my methods are right everytime. But the wins are bigger than the losses. That is all it needs.


Regardless of TA, FA, sentiment, COT data, EW or whatever: in hindsight we are always able to make nice statements or analysis. Another game is to trade real time and make a decision, jump into the cold water. When you are in, you have to know your limitations.

Regarding: "noone expected it to drop that much"

I wrote this beforehand:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post8268070

and also I published at the weekend, shortly after the high was in, my EW analysis, which stated that the top may be in or within reach:

05.16.2015 EURUSD short term count

I even took a position just a few pips before the top.

Does that make me a hero? Heck, NOT, I could have also been wrong. The main driver for my positioning were some obvious fib-relationships, the EW-pattern on subwaves, and very importantly, the fact, that on that day we had very high USD bearishness. Only 9% USD bulls were left.
  • #19,211
  • Edited 4:50am May 23, 2015 4:26am | Edited 4:50am
What Mario said one year ago whatever it takes was abouth fudamentals. He made a safety wall againt Greece for bailout for the whole eurosone.This was a very important step which made the interest rate decline very sharply. The loan rates for some countries in the eurosone were so high that they were not avaiable to pay their loans. This made the stock market go up and the safety for the euro grew stronger.The problems for the eurosone continied because the euro was too strong to compete With other markets.Thats why the euro had to come down.
I hope that I will have the chance to see the euro back to 1,0464. I am so certan abouth improvments of the eurosone that I will buy euro for a longer period. The housing market in the south of Europe is continiuing to improve.I am in the housing market in Cyprus so I follow it tightly. The problem now for the eurosone is that the euro climbs too quickly back up. It will damage the positive developments for the eurosone and expectaions for the future.. Greece will not default. The problems is the figures coming from the US. If they are not improving we will see a pressure down on the USD. Hope this will not happen before we see a more stabilisized eurosone.
I am still also expecting a stock market corrections which turns into safety and stronger USD.

I was expecting 1,08 on the euro now but hope for an double bottom of 1,0460 for a long long positions in the euro.

The big fishes must be wrong about turing point due to the high volume of the big fishes


I agree with you abouth the big institutons how many mistakes the make. TA is important . FA is very important but it is diffecult and complicated . It addition to that we have the human mind which is complicated.It is all the 3 facors together that decides the sucess in forex trading I think

You succeded in the top short 1,14 but sold at 1,290. I started to buy earlier sell euro but stayed longer so it is different ways. Techically it was oversold and ready for an correction back down
  • #19,212
  • May 23, 2015 4:27am May 23, 2015 4:27am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Oh, Marianne, how you are right. Of course, globally we can not predict anything at markets. But once impulse has happened, we can assume that price might go the way it has choosen by impulse. Then we can estimate a theoretical probability of a chance the price goes to the price level assumed. And even if we are going the way following the price, we can be always prepared to the "shit happens" chance right the next minute. Best, D.P.

Yes, trading is all about probabilities

Because of that, and the fact that we simply do not get all the fundamental information we need, plus the fact that even the biggest of the biggest big fish with their huge FA departments is able to forecast the turning points and keep into trend trading/momentum trading, you can do simply two things:


a) use other tools than FA (preferred)

b) use trend following (but find measurres to not to stay too long in trend, or other said, to have the biggest position, when price turnes against you)


For both you can spare the time to very hard try to figure out the FA and instead spent the time with other crazy stuff
  • #19,213
  • Edited 4:52am May 23, 2015 4:37am | Edited 4:52am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Yes, we can. And Yes, it is difficult. Personally I am trying to think both ways at the same time. Sometimes it allows me to have profit, sometimes it gives me a loss. {quote} It depends on a timeframe the trader trades. The short-term positions last for no more than 2-3 hours. But the long-term positions last for months. So those who bought at the lower prices would be waiting for the 1,36 level even if the price drops lower their price they previously entered. So who is right? the answer is BOTH. {quote} In the short-term trade you might...
The problems is that we are human beeing and not machines and our mind damages,. Stoplosses are made and the computer fight the stoplosses
  • #19,214
  • May 23, 2015 4:38am May 23, 2015 4:38am
Quoting MarianneOslo
What Mario said one year ago whatever it takes was abouth fudamentals. He made a safety wall againt Greece for bailout for the whole eurosone.This was a very important step which made the interest rate decline very sharply. The loan rates for some countries in the eurosone were so high that they were not avaiable to pay their loans. This made the stock market go up and the safety for the euro grew stronger.The problems for the eurosone continied because the euro was too strong to compete With other markets.Thats why the euro had to come down. I...

Yes, but the rate declines in Eurozone were not because of a fundamental step of Mario, it was because of the psychology

"The big fishes must be wrong about turing point due to the high volume of the big fishes"

No, it seems, that they are simply running their strategy till they hit the wall. Than it takes some time until they have figured out the new direction and to position anew.

The problem for them is: they constantly run into the wall with the biggest position. Now they have the hard work of unwinding it discretely in order to not cause a panic reaction which would lead to prices moving very fast against them.


BTW: some studies found out, that some of the biggest fishes in the market in some markets have very good ability to predict price turning points.

This leads me to the question: are this the addresses, who get illegal insider information ?
  • #19,215
  • May 23, 2015 4:47am May 23, 2015 4:47am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Yes, but the rate declines in Eurozone were not because of a fundamental step of Mario, it was because of the psychology "The big fishes must be wrong about turing point due to the high volume of the big fishes" No, it seems, that they are simply running their strategy till they hit the wall. Than it takes some time until they have figured out the new direction and to position anew. The problem for them is: they constantly run into the wall with the biggest position. Now they have the hard work of unwinding it discretely in order...
When we see huge movements as from the 18may I think big fishes give a signal and short together. The insider information is cooperation among the biggest. It must be.
What is your prediction abouth the euro? I saw yesterday that you thought many shortrers stopped their positions
  • #19,216
  • May 23, 2015 4:56am May 23, 2015 4:56am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Now they have the hard work of unwinding it discretely in order to not cause a panic reaction which would lead to prices moving very fast against them. BTW: some studies found out, that some of the biggest fishes in the market in some markets have very good ability to predict price turning points. This leads me to the question: are this the addresses, who get illegal insider information ?
Yes, that is why they need defending the prices they entered.

Quoting infinitus
{quote} BTW: some studies found out, that some of the biggest fishes in the market in some markets have very good ability to predict price turning points. This leads me to the question: are this the addresses, who get illegal insider information ?
I think, this option seems to be the main one. I suppose, as soon as markets become calm, and the fundamental background becomes calm as well, big fishes begin forming their positions slowly, they are trying not to attract attention of the retail traders, doing this. Such information are being spreaded among big fishes quietly.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,217
  • May 23, 2015 4:57am May 23, 2015 4:57am
Financial myths and Socionomics

Read more at: http://ewminteractive.com/financial-myths-and-socionomics/ | EWM Interactive
  • #19,218
  • May 23, 2015 5:13am May 23, 2015 5:13am
Quoting infinitus
Financial myths and Socionomics Read more at: http://ewminteractive.com/financial-myths-and-socionomics/ | EWM Interactive
Fundamental reading

@the paper - inflation is a better path than deflation
@the paper - It is absolutely normal to see higher prices of goods and services in a productive economy

In order for the economics to be productive, this economics needs inflation. But the inflation needs to be controlled by governement.
It should be up to 4% as a maximal value. Such an inflation value can be controlled and the ecomonics can be increasing under these conditions.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,219
  • May 23, 2015 5:33am May 23, 2015 5:33am
Is the FED controlling interest rates?

Read more at: http://ewminteractive.com/is-the-fed-controlling-interest-rates/ | EWM Interactive
  • #19,220
  • May 23, 2015 5:38am May 23, 2015 5:38am
Quoting MarianneOslo
What Mario said one year ago whatever it takes was abouth fudamentals. He made a safety wall againt Greece for bailout for the whole eurosone.This was a very important step which made the interest rate decline very sharply. The loan rates for some countries in the eurosone were so high that they were not avaiable to pay their loans. This made the stock market go up and the safety for the euro grew stronger.The problems for the eurosone continied because the euro was too strong to compete With other markets.Thats why the euro had to come down. I...
You are buying EUR on EU based fundamentals but you are complety discrediting USA fundamentals. You are picking the side with David instead Goliath. 2015/16 EURUSD price drive will not come from Europe, it will come from USA and FED. Even if you are right about your fundamental analysis of EU which i think its not, you can be picking bad trade due to other party of influence on EURUSD price. FED hikes and all your correct reasons go belly up. That is difference between pickng good fundamental trade and a bad one with mixed outcome. Good fundamental trade is clear one, where currency dirrection is strongly based by action of central bank (not economical situation which has much less of impact on price) eg QE, cut, hike or political action (referendum,default) and such action overpowers any action going in for day by day economy. You are going against direction. I have exchanged EUR for USD savings when EU was trading 1.34 for reasoning to go lower that fundamentals have peaced of central banks not economy itself. There has been no significant change in economy since so if you would have kept that way you could have started just as well buying at 1.31 . Again going by your approach you would have bought USDJPY trading at 110 becouse after launch of QE Japanese economy would be improving, which it did, but the difference is that you would be in 1000 pips loss becouse you picked the wrong side and the relationship between economy and policy actions on price of currency/pair.
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