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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #19,181
  • May 21, 2015 10:36am May 21, 2015 10:36am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} textbook it is more and more fun to work with all of this sentiment data yesterday I read in a book about COT data from Stephen Briese, that you have to be careful, when analyzing the data of the small specs, because, he wrote, they are sometimes very right and in the next moment totally wrong. He called it schizophrenic. Can you remember me calling it manic-depressive? LOL If you have other sentiment data you are looking at, please share your source and we can discuss it {image}
Maybe it would be better now, when price would retrace much higher towards 1230 or 1350 roughly, in order to get the retail crowd really convinced about their long positions before further and steep fall towrds the lows
  • #19,182
  • May 21, 2015 11:15am May 21, 2015 11:15am
Forget the Wall street, this is how real trading is done:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20Traders.JPG
  • #19,183
  • May 21, 2015 11:31am May 21, 2015 11:31am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Well this is event that is ongoing for 90% of fishing countries especially those that have poor resources in water or are heavy under fishing. Tons of countries are packed in there, they go cross the boarder fish and try their luck as long as oposite fishermen dont call up police/army. Usually the reason for doing so is simply becouse its more to pull out in going trough to neighbours sea thats what most of fishing accidents/events are based on and same thing is happening here in China/Indonesia. Its not just fishing, its anything based...

South China Sea is rich with fish but China ban neighbouring countries fishing there,

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0O20PF20150518
  • #19,184
  • May 21, 2015 11:46am May 21, 2015 11:46am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Yea, I've read about it.. Sailors are safe & healthy, only ships were sunk in South China Sea but they were caught within Indonesian territory in South east sea region. Question is why such a Large Chinese Vessel fishing on relatively small sea with less fish while they could fish on South China Sea which is larger sea with more fish ?
I think the message is If you looking for fish look in South China Sea not in sea within Indonesia territory.
  • #19,185
  • May 21, 2015 3:52pm May 21, 2015 3:52pm
See what China claim on South China Sea :

http://www.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/pdf/SEAPp...seadispute.pdf
  • #19,186
  • May 21, 2015 4:30pm May 21, 2015 4:30pm
Quoting janpec1000
Forget the Wall street, this is how real trading is done: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...%20Traders.JPG
not stress mode...
  • #19,187
  • May 22, 2015 10:05am May 22, 2015 10:05am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Maybe it would be better now, when price would retrace much higher towards 1230 or 1350 roughly, in order to get the retail crowd really convinced about their long positions before further and steep fall towrds the lows
OK, so far we got nearly the lower "wish"

today, around 6h back, the FF crowed reached 57% longs.

Now they are again net short. will be interesting to see, if they start to cover now and go heavily long
  • #19,188
  • May 22, 2015 10:30am May 22, 2015 10:30am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ing-zero-bound
  • #19,189
  • May 22, 2015 1:25pm May 22, 2015 1:25pm
4h EURUSD Possible target area

Best
D.P.
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Hunting High and Low
  • #19,190
  • May 22, 2015 1:31pm May 22, 2015 1:31pm
Murrey Math on VP

EU

VP's are from last night - but I think nothing has changed much
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  • #19,191
  • May 22, 2015 1:35pm May 22, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
4h EURUSD Possible target area Best D.P. {image}

chose your poison

actual distribution
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  • #19,192
  • May 22, 2015 1:37pm May 22, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
4h EURUSD Possible target area Best D.P. {image}

that would mean, that price would stop on the lower high volume zone of the distribution

at least a nice place to temporarily clear some or all short positions
  • #19,193
  • May 22, 2015 1:39pm May 22, 2015 1:39pm
I think very many EUR shortere were manipulated into EUR long positions during these two sharp euro decline this week.
  • #19,194
  • May 22, 2015 2:12pm May 22, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
I think very many EUR shortere were manipulated into EUR long positions during these two sharp euro decline this week.

forget about manipulating etc.

yes, the big fishes have enough power to drive prices up and down, in the end.

But as a trader the most important thing you have to learn, is, that price movements is never a straight line. There will be ever ups and downs.

See, alone here in this thread, there were enough traders able to foresee at the right point, that prices most likely would go up, and last week, around the top, at least me and when I am correct, Janpec said that prices would go down.

It simply makes no sense to call manipulation every time prices goes up or down. It it the rhythm of the market.

Selling finds no more supply, price goes up.
Buying finds no more demand, price goes down.

Simple as that
  • #19,195
  • Edited 3:05pm May 22, 2015 2:28pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} forget about manipulating etc. yes, the big fishes have enough power to drive prices up and down, in the end. But as a trader the most important thing you have to learn, is, that price movements is never a straight line. There will be ever ups and downs. See, alone here in this thread, there were enough traders able to foresee at the right point, that prices most likely would go up, and last week, around the top, at least me and when I am correct, Janpec said that prices would go down. It simply makes no sense to call manipulation every...

I was refering to your own words earlier this week quote:

#So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish?
Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps on going lower many hundreds of pips#

This is a manipulatian of the market because one wishes the traders to get trapped. It is psycology that is running this market, As eg. the computers looking for stop losses and the directon turns immediatly afterwards. When the euro/USD were 1,39 at the same time as the eurosone were almost defaulting yes it is maipulation but in the end the fudamentals win an this is why it had to come down. They manipulate the interest rates to run the euro up again.Draghi is doing QE to keeep the interest rate low and the interest rate rises. AS you said the sentiment was so bullish. At the same day Draghi started the QE the euro has risen.
It is manipulation all the time.Those who develop the algoritm I am sure using psykology to test the level of stress a human can bear before one give up and sell and manipulate the market up and down. I read yesterday abouth the big banks manipulating the market with agreements of the trading.

Many shorters are now trapped in long positions far above 1,10 just as you described. Many will think it has turned but it has not due to the QE.


. I does not need to call it manipulation but this is maniplulation.
I was short due to I belive in the trend due to fudamental reasons. I only speak abouth short.
This is why I mean it is so important to have a meaning of the direction in my opinion. I have waited also for the USD to rise. I also remember you sold your positions
  • #19,196
  • May 22, 2015 3:16pm May 22, 2015 3:16pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} chose your poison actual distribution {image}

I was wrong last week about waiting climax on USD,

Now USD is really bullish and should heading toward 100+ I guess.
  • #19,197
  • May 22, 2015 5:31pm May 22, 2015 5:31pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} I was refering to your own words earlier this week quote: #So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish? Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps on going lower many hundreds of pips# This is a manipulatian of the market because one wishes the...

Do you really believe the big addresses in the market care so much about how we tiny fish-retailers are positioned?

Maybe, maybe certainly, they play their games at turning points via SL hunting etc.


But when EU reached 1.399 last year, it had nothing to do with manipulation. Price is the proxy for social mood. That is why EW oftentimes work very well. When we were at or near 1.3990 I called the top. I had an average short position around 3970.


When we can agree, that there are Elliottwaves, then there can not be manipulation all the time. Would there be manipulation all the time, they had to design the manipulation in a way to fit the Elliottwaves. That would be way too deterministic.

Price goes up and down, up and down, and it is doing this for aeons.

People try to make sense of this movements with fundamental explanations. But there is ample evidence, that price most of the time defies logic and simply follows social mood.

The sooner one accepts this, the sooner you can profit from it.

What I wrote last week was not about manipulation. It was about the self-trapping of retail traders. An ever repeating pattern in the markets. Try to read it, and you will eventually profit from it.

MissPips and I have shown in the past weeks ample evidence, that you can not expect a rise in EU, when the Eurozone hikes rates, or a fall in EU, when the US rises rates. Sometimes you will be lucky with this approach, another time not. Sometimes the traders have front-run the decisions, another time not.

Last week, when we reached the last temporary top, I went short for 140 pips or so. I thought, when I covered the position, that I would be able to reshort after a bit of pullback. But shortly after my covering price dropped for 100 pips or so. So what? That is the name of the game. Shit happens, can happen. Next opportunity is around the corner.

Can you remember? When we bottomed out around 1.04, I said, that the move up would only be temporarily. Your opinion was, that it would now be time for Euro strength because the situation in Europe would be improving. We had a debate about housing prices etc.

The main problem with fundamental analysis is, that it is impossible to judge all fundamental aspects, that weigh on a currency, in the right way. Make a fault and you are toast. Forget one aspect and you are toast. Overlook some interconnected aspects and you are toast..

Out of my view, when you like to trade fundamentals, trade commodities. Specialize at the beginning on one commodity. Do not take Gold or Silver. It might be much more easier to apply FA on pork bellies, lumber, wheat, what ever than on complex currencies.

But also here statistics and studies show, that the retail trader will most likely fail with FA, because he will not have the same information than the Commercial Traders will have.
  • #19,198
  • Edited 2:38am May 23, 2015 1:56am | Edited 2:38am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} that would mean, that price would stop on the lower high volume zone of the distribution at least a nice place to temporarily clear some or all short positions
Do you mean it will happen near by 1,06?
If so, it is possible then.

I am looking at the distribution and I find it interesting enough.
As to the distribution, the first standart deviation is about 1.065 (your calculation is 1,0641). That exactly confirms my picture.
However look at it once again. We have strong support levels at the areas of 1.0875 and 1.075.
The first of them is 1,0875 that directly point at the same price level of the first SD (white dotted line) at my picture, what could be the problem to overcome.
That is why the market in the end can be stopped earlier than expected, for example, right at these prices of 1,075-1,0875.
Look at my picture once again. Moreover you can see that the previous accumulation zone was already at the first SD, it was at the prices of the 1.06 zone.

Best,
D.P.

Quoting infinitus
{quote}Selling finds no more supply, price goes up. Buying finds no more demand, price goes down. Simple as that


Nothing to add more.

Quoting infinitus
{quote} The main problem with fundamental analysis is, that it is impossible to judge all fundamental aspects, that weigh on a currency, in the right way. Make a fault and you are toast. Forget one aspect and you are toast. Overlook some interconnected aspects and you are toast.. Out of my view, when you like to trade fundamentals, trade commodities. Specialize at the beginning on one commodity. Do not take Gold or Silver. It might be much more easier to apply FA on pork bellies, lumber, wheat, what ever than on complex currencies. But also here...
Good speech, Markus !

That is why I gave up using FA in FOREX. Only tech view is applicable. Of course, one can argue about it.

TRADE WHAT YOU SEE.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,199
  • Edited 2:48am May 23, 2015 2:22am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Do you really believe the big addresses in the market care so much about how we tiny fish-retailers are positioned? Maybe, maybe certainly, they play their games at turning points via SL hunting etc. But when EU reached 1.399 last year, it had nothing to do with manipulation. Price is the proxy for social mood. That is why EW oftentimes work very well. When we were at or near 1.3990 I called the top. I had an average short position around 3970. When we can agree, that there are Elliottwaves, then there can not be manipulation all the time....
I have been trading forex for many years 20 years why should I trade commodities? There are different ways to trade forex and to earn money.I always follow tecnical advices from my bank and stick to the direction I belive in. That doesnt mean I stick to my positions all the time. I sell and stay out of the market when I am uncertain. I stayed out of the market for a long perod when euro climbed up from 1,046 to 1,1
It is no right og wrong way to play this game. In my opnion it is the fudamentals that succes best.
Forex is also a zero game. The big fishes are dependent on the small fishes to make mistakes to earn their money.
My point was to support your point some days ago nothing more. I use the word manipulate, my banks report use manipulate several times in their reports Forex game and other money games are abouth manipulation so that some can win and other lose money. You wrote that you are your own biggest enemy

That is true and how the big fishes want you to do make mistakes so they can get your money
We had an discussion abouth the improvement of the eurosone and yes I was right abouth this the figures from the eurosone have mostly been improving since then. Some of you said this ws wrong but the eurosone is improving.
I am still bearish at this Level due to the QE that will force the rates down.At 1,04 I am not so sure if it is neccessary to make the euro decline further. I dident take any long positions at 1,046 due I said and showed I was uncertain at that point. When the rates increased again and the euro climed I started to short the euro again.
WE heard that Mario said the rates were almost low enough at 1,04 but at 1,14 he said the market rates were too high.If we go back to 1.04 again I might take long long positions for the euro. If the euro increases back too quickly it will be too early for further improvements. AS long as the cetralbank is doing the QE it will force the markets rates down. I think 1,2 is a good future value of the euro but not too early.
  • #19,200
  • May 23, 2015 2:38am May 23, 2015 2:38am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Do you mean it will happen near by 1,06? If so, it is possible then. I am looking at the distribution and I find it interesting enough. As to the distribution, the first standart deviation is about 1.065 (your calculation is 1,0641). That exactly confirms my picture. However look at it once again. We have strong support levels at the areas of 1.0875 and 1.075. The first of them is 1,0875 that directly point at the same price level of the first SD (white dotted line) at my picture, what could be the problem to overcome. In the end the market...
Didnt you have wrong positions before the euro fall? So what did you see? I thought you were longing the euro but might be mistaken
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