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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,201
  • May 21, 2015 10:18am May 21, 2015 10:18am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Huh..hard question. Interesting how these ~ 1.1 levels are holding. -> Looks like big loading in going on in my opinion. As I wrote today, the signals are quite mixed, on the technical side we are at mid point. In a market maker view: The only thing that is not neutral is the (~60%)(~40%) Short:Long ratio. Breaking of the last two weeks low can occur more shorts overall (break out strategy, novice retail trading, etc) and not moving lower suggests that the shorts are all bought. But on the other side there are much better Risk:Reward ratios...
Thank you! Well, I am not too familiar with the patterns you use. But, 1.106-1.105 is a new support created, and haven't been tested. Basing on the order book of my broker, majority buy orders are in that area. You can check yours as well.
I highly doubt we will be able to go under 1.105 in fact...but if we do and go through 1.1, I don't think we will stop there...1.08x-1.07x area will become possible...
One more thing...today's US data are very ugly, tomorrow's CPI won't be impressive, so bears are running out of time to test the lows. Only Draghi's empty words can spark some firework to the downside...
  • #135,202
  • May 21, 2015 11:11am May 21, 2015 11:11am
Quoting sisse
B....Its do or kill for the news play since yesterday until London goes home so no more room for anything. Plenty of stops staggered at the lows now and reverse in play (1.112x flip area) if they get trigger for a quick test 1.105x and ....
...ufff they made it very hard today. Europe went home sitting in 1.112x. Too close too call intraday, so basically siting tight and nothing to do until the US afternoon session ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,203
  • May 21, 2015 12:22pm May 21, 2015 12:22pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...ufff they made it very hard today. Europe went home sitting in 1.112x. Too close too call intraday, so basically siting tight and nothing to do until the US afternoon session ... sisse
Quoting sisse
The only variables in play are where do i enter and where do I exit using whatever tools you want to define those levels. However in a 2 dimensional chart, TIME is very hard to understand
Time .........
  • #135,204
  • May 21, 2015 12:27pm May 21, 2015 12:27pm
Inserted Video
  • #135,205
  • May 21, 2015 12:31pm May 21, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting Pharm0r
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO1rMeYnOmM
  • #135,206
  • May 21, 2015 1:04pm May 21, 2015 1:04pm
Quoting ws121
{quote} {quote} Time .........
Time for a reverso in play for the roll ... je je je ... bulls losing foot for the close ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,207
  • May 21, 2015 1:15pm May 21, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Time for a reverso in play for the roll ... je je je ... bulls losing foot for the close ... sisse
Do you have a quick over view / opinion on UJ fundamentally?
  • #135,208
  • May 21, 2015 1:31pm May 21, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} +90% of all micro intraday flows are now automated algorithmic trading, some of those values could arguably be reverse engineered manually (trail and error in hundred of thousand hours of chart time as for example Gator) if you have the expeiriecne, patience and hundred of thousand of hours tracking them. Hacking a tiny part of the results of an algorithm alone is nice but useless for trading as you will be always facing the "hindsight dilemma" of manual trading. However, If you manage to incorporate those concepts in your trading plan and...
Since nothing is happening at the moment, I would like to say a few words...
When I started learning about forex, one of the most powerful lectures I watched was by a self-claimed millionaire trader. His lecture went over 3 hours and his biggest point was that we need to take time off the equation because the only thing that matters in trading is price. He delivered his point in a strong logical and convincing way. His idea got stuck in my mind until the moment I read your post.

There's no words to say to thank you sisse for your effort and knowledge generosity that's converting the way I perceive trading positively.
  • #135,209
  • May 21, 2015 1:47pm May 21, 2015 1:47pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Do you have a quick over view / opinion on UJ fundamentally?
I made of couple of quick key comments on the yen (somewhere in the back posts) one after the FOMC in march when my outlook change to "the less attractive pair for trading" in the next few months....Because of the strong contradictory fundamentals behind that pair. Weaker dollar via the FED delaying the hikes and weaker yen via the BOJ strong expansionary policy.

Last week I also highlighted in the thread a breakout alert (we were testing the bottom of the range) with the very vocal BOJ flirting to push the markets again, however as you saw, king dollar took control and we have that rally that put the yen back on track to test [obviously] the top of the range.

In conclusion, is the same conclusion: its is the least attractive pair for trading (i am talking about proper trading not micro trading as you know). In simple words, FED hikes (like in everywhere) will trigger the break up but with the hyperactive and politicized BOJ you better keep a very close ear on that front. As you probably well know, BOJ is a specialist in active and unexpected intervention in the market...

I hope it helps.


Quoting ws121
{quote} Since nothing is happening at the moment, I would like to say a few words... When I started learning about forex, one of the most powerful lectures I watched was by a self-claimed millionaire trader. His lecture went over 3 hours and his biggest point was that we need to take time off the equation because the only thing that matters in trading is price. He delivered his point in a strong logical and convincing way. His idea got stuck in my mind until the moment I read your post. There's no words to say to thank you sisse for your effort...
ufff... thank you very much for your kind words. I am glad you get something from my comments.

Lets see how we roll. 1.112x only level to track for the close ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,210
  • May 21, 2015 1:58pm May 21, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I made of couple of quick key comments on the yen (somewhere in the back posts) one after the FOMC in march when my outlook change to "the less attractive pair for trading" in the next few months....Because of the strong contradictory fundamentals behind that pair. Weaker dollar via the FED delaying the hikes and weaker yen via the BOJ strong expansionary policy. Last week I also highlighted in the thread a breakout alert (we were testing the bottom of the range) with the very vocal BOJ flirting to push the markets again, however as you...
It does thanks
  • #135,211
  • May 21, 2015 2:08pm May 21, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...ufff they made it very hard today. Europe went home sitting in 1.112x. Too close too call intraday, so basically siting tight and nothing to do until the US afternoon session ... sisse
indeed.

i was hoping for a rally and actually rode it up and down. not being able to close above 1130 will add to my view but i am looking to test 1.0950
  • #135,212
  • May 21, 2015 2:18pm May 21, 2015 2:18pm
Quoting darimik
{quote} indeed. i was hoping for a rally and actually rode it up and down. not being able to close above 1130 will add to my view but i am looking to test 1.0950
I hear you mate. Thats why hate knee jerk reaction out of natural flows in key places...Most if not all of the knee jerk reaction get filled back up/down (only a runaway break down/up will avoid it but that look out of range in this one) rather quickly but they make a bitch of intraday flows....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,213
  • May 21, 2015 4:20pm May 21, 2015 4:20pm
... and we rolled ... as expected all day long chopping around 1.112x...we barely tested 1.118x on soft stops run but nothing beyond that for the Minutes FOMC play so killing the position on any tick at entry (for the just in case).

I was wrong [mistake] and I mistimed the ECB QE that was triggered with the leak on the timing for bond purchases early this week with a knee jerk reaction beyond my trading range, time and control.

Changing outlook today and with this weekly close:

  1. Short term (days to weeks) rolling back to Neutral from BUY

Nothing to do after the close, same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,214
  • Edited 6:20pm May 21, 2015 4:35pm | Edited 6:20pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Hey Carlos...nice to see you around...well it was just a public shout to highlight his posts ....they have interesting points to watch-out in detail and to know the poster's background behind the comments to put context for future reference ... -------- --------- -------- --------- -------- --------- -------- --------- In any case, a fellow trader share this via PM. Fantastic very short reading on the latest knee jerk reaction this week. From Bloomberg "When...
...How are you sisse, I always read your posts, but in this case I was only kidding and to tell you the true, I don't even remember the joke I was trying to do, lol never mind.....

Oh that is so true, when they whisper secrets, they are up to something, that is their nature, very good read sisse, thanks for sharing.....they are trying to keep the euro low I believe, otherwise they don't sale BMW's but the thing is that both sides are armed with great weapons to keep their currency low, so let see what the other side will do to get to the 38% fibo this time....or parity will be next, place your bets........I wish good luck on your trading sisse and hope the family and all is fine......http://www.bloombergview.com/article...rom-ecb-s-leak-
The Chonchy
  • #135,215
  • May 21, 2015 4:51pm May 21, 2015 4:51pm
Quoting sisse
... and we rolled ... as expected all day long chopping around 1.112x...we barely tested 1.118x on soft stops run but nothing beyond that for the Minutes FOMC play so killing the position on any tick at entry (for the just in case). I was wrong [mistake] and I mistimed the ECB QE that was triggered with the leak on the timing for bond purchases early this week with a knee jerk reaction beyond my trading range, time and control. Changing outlook today and with this weekly close: Short term (days to weeks) rolling back to Neutral from BUY Nothing...
Sisse,
The fact that ECB intensifies its QE the following months will weigh on the EUR for sure. But why is the dollar so strong versus the other currencies as well - AUD,NZD,JPY, etc? Do you expect this broad USD strength to continue also versus them, despite the constant flow of bad US indicators week after week?
  • #135,216
  • May 21, 2015 10:45pm May 21, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting Wulfgar
{quote} Is Denmark full of great Danes? I'm a USD bull too... At least till Like 2015... But doin intraday stuff I guess it doesn't matter too much unless I plan on turnin spot into swing/position...
not a bad call 3 years ago
  • #135,217
  • May 22, 2015 2:42am May 22, 2015 2:42am
Euro flirting again to complete the intraday break of the tiny range. Tracking 1.116x in the european morning session to quickly complete the first part of the mini leg to 1.122x but other than that nothing new for this session. Same levels, same trades, same all.....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,218
  • Edited 3:15am May 22, 2015 2:59am | Edited 3:15am
Last H4 signal was buy at 1.11182. (Last Daily signal can support it - H4+D are usually quite strong together)
While...
Last H1 signal was sell at 1.11401.


P.S.
In the bullish scenario, technically 1.12166-1.13042 could have a visit.
In the bearish scenario, technically ~1.10300-1.09800 could have a visit. (1.272-1.618 extension)

SSI: FOMC Minutes Shakeout Weak Hands in Positioning Reset
Thursday, 21 May 2015 12:00 GMT Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
"EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.37 as 41% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.50; 40% of open positions were long. Long positions are 8.0% higher than yesterday and 19.8% above levels seen last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 28.4% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.4% higher than yesterday and 12.3% below its monthly average."
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,219
  • May 22, 2015 3:07am May 22, 2015 3:07am
Quoting hathor
Last H4 signal was buy at 1.11182. While... Last H1 signal was sell at 1.11401.
Close one of those charts....there you have it, problem solved ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,220
  • May 22, 2015 3:23am May 22, 2015 3:23am
Could this be possible on EURUSD?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDmDaily2205.png Size: 41 KB
Whenever i buy the price goes up & whenever i sell the the price goes down!
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