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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #19,161
  • May 20, 2015 5:45am May 20, 2015 5:45am
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...esident-judici

Hah no wonder, USA presidents traditionally have large hidden burdens, along with those campaining for next elections, heck they even had to erase all tied to Hilary history ties of past 10 years 2000 backwards. Reminds me of that line from US version of the Office: "Kev your computer had such dirty porn searches we found saved that we had to throw computer away. "
  • #19,162
  • May 20, 2015 5:55am May 20, 2015 5:55am
Quoting janpec1000
1134 short EU. Rejection area of flip zone, sellers are trying hard, will flip it if it gets above 1130.
Took 10 pips. Small movements today, not good for scalping.
  • #19,163
  • May 20, 2015 11:44am May 20, 2015 11:44am
FED minutes later, hoping maybe for some stronger inches towards or against hikes i dont really care as long as it gives movement for trading afterwards. Probably 50ish pips is all its gona happen since there is no speech, but who knows.
  • #19,164
  • Edited 12:41pm May 20, 2015 11:52am | Edited 12:41pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} im trading fundamentals but problem as you can see with me trading fundamentals is that I often enter positions earlier than supposed to....and usually end up with trades having drawdown before turing backin profit just like the EURUSD short ive been short about 2 weeks ago around 1.12, and also the USDJPY long from 119.80... This trade was a beast I entered long back in april only to close in profit for 110 pip today.... so yea fundamentals are very often trading the correct direction but timing is a little off at times.... technical traders...

I am trading the same way I think the fudamentals win in the end. It also never exist a rational desicion but the timing may be diffecult. WE see more and how the computors find the increasing stoplosses to stop the tecnical trader. I belive although one is following technical trading one always have a mind of the direction.I think a combination of technical and fudamental is the best.Otherwise one is running back and fourth without any direction.
  • #19,165
  • Edited 1:02pm May 20, 2015 12:42pm | Edited 1:02pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg

UK PM David Cameron Proclaims: Its Not Enough To Follow The Law, You Must Love Big Brother

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ve-big-brother

Best,
D.P.

P.S. Cool !!
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,166
  • May 20, 2015 7:17pm May 20, 2015 7:17pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{image} UK PM David Cameron Proclaims: Its Not Enough To Follow The Law, You Must Love Big Brother http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...ve-big-brother Best, D.P. P.S. Cool !!
in Portugal you are going to football with the grandfather of your children ... and a cop hits the children's father ... why not hit the bad guy?
It is the sad world we currently have ...

Inserted Video
  • #19,167
  • May 21, 2015 12:54am May 21, 2015 12:54am
Quoting chess king
{quote} in Portugal you are going to football with the grandfather of your children ... and a cop hits the children's father ... why not hit the bad guy? It is the sad world we currently have ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3i3mnefqkhA
in front of children's eyes.

a sad story in there.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,168
  • May 21, 2015 1:53am May 21, 2015 1:53am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} im trading fundamentals but problem as you can see with me trading fundamentals is that I often enter positions earlier than supposed to....and usually end up with trades having drawdown before turing backin profit just like the EURUSD short ive been short about 2 weeks ago around 1.12, and also the USDJPY long from 119.80... This trade was a beast I entered long back in april only to close in profit for 110 pip today.... so yea fundamentals are very often trading the correct direction but timing is a little off at times.... technical traders...
Hi Fxtyrant,

happens to me also from time to time to get into drawdown first. That is a general problem when trading the bigger swings. Make a fault in the interpretation of FA or TA, and one is too early.

If oneis careful with MM, positionsize etc., one can endure this. But when it happens it is never nice. Because we can have no 100% guarantee, that price will "only" cause a drawdown of 5% or in the end 20% or more.

I have learned painfully: Overconfidence may kill one in the blink of an eye.


Only solution seems, to really keep the SL relatively low, and/or to use several analysis methods and combine them.

Sweet spots on the charts are a good thing, but alone they do not help much in terms of direction.


Since you surely have access to really the best of best information via Bloomberg, Reuters, or via the information what your bank customers (the bigger fishs) are doing, I clearly would go the way via sentiment analysis and volume analysis.


Most of us here have no access to this information and have to be satisfied with part of such information, or have to look at many sources to get a feel for the bigger picture.

So my advice would be to use your advantage and the data you have access to.


When I started Forex trading, I hardly read anything FA related, because I tried to relay solely on Elliot wave. But soon I found out, that it is much more easier, to look at some other factors like sentiment, COT data, volume analysis in order to get a better picture.

The problem with FA is, that you never really know, if part of the information or all of it has been already digested and build in in the price data. Surly, it is good to know what is going on fundamentally, and I am sure that every experienced trader will do his FA homework in one way or the other, build his own sentiment etc.. But to use it for the purpose of entry/exit/timing, at least in my view, not a very reliable instrument.

I think, when you mainly relay on FA, then you should at least combine it with a sound sentiment analysis. But also the sentiment analysis is a rather bad tool for timing which needs a wider SL.

So all in all, for timing purposes you will need something different: Elliottwave, price action, momentum analysis (also a bitch) etc. You can choose your poison :-)
  • #19,169
  • May 21, 2015 2:06am May 21, 2015 2:06am
Quoting infinitus
1084 is the lower end of the recent distribution either it is rejected quickly, or taken in a hurry. Break to the downside, and we are within a new distribution, which spans down to the very lows {image}

The area of 1084 gets a bit of volume fill in the moment

when looking at the low volume zones, one can name them by their lowest points, but it makes more sense to think in areas which surrounds them, because normally they spread out over an area

actual distribution show low volume zone around 1056-1058
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 40 KB
  • #19,170
  • May 21, 2015 2:09am May 21, 2015 2:09am
from an EW point of view, the structure at the recent developing sideways structure looks like a streched, yet developing ABC (now in in C) or getting complex wxy, or developing triangle.

We can only say when more time passes by. My feeling would say, that 1150 is a lid.
  • #19,171
  • May 21, 2015 3:03am May 21, 2015 3:03am
EURUSD bottoming out. 1200 attack should come soon.
  • #19,172
  • May 21, 2015 3:32am May 21, 2015 3:32am
Quoting ffleo
Hi Markus, you asked about ThinkorSwim history data. Sorry for late reply cause I was offline for a while. It looks like their data is in memory buffer, since I notice that every time I log on to their platform, it takes a while to reload all of their data for the charts to be displayed. While still logged on to the platform, if I change to another trading symbol and then switch back to the original symbol, all data for the original symbol will be re-downloaded from their website.

Hi FFleo,

thanks for answering. That is what I feared

I noticed the same
  • #19,173
  • May 21, 2015 4:40am May 21, 2015 4:40am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Hathor, regarding the positioning of the retail crowd: I published an EW analysis a few minutes back. There you can read all about. here is my conclusion: So the question for me is: why are the retail crowd still short, when their sentiment is so bullish? Well, maybe it is "hope springs eternal", and they are hanging onto their losing positions in the hope to get them at least near BE again. So when price will drop from this levels, they will cover their shorts very soon, and go long. Then they might be trapped again, when price keeps...


EU


the prognosis regarding the retail traders seems to come true:

since this morning most retail traders are net long since weeks. Various broker outlets show the same picture
  • #19,174
  • May 21, 2015 8:05am May 21, 2015 8:05am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} EU the prognosis regarding the retail traders seems to come true: since this morning most retail traders are net long since weeks. Various broker outlets show the same picture

textbook


it is more and more fun to work with all of this sentiment data


yesterday I read in a book about COT data from Stephen Briese, that you have to be careful, when analyzing the data of the small specs, because, he wrote, they are sometimes very right and in the next moment totally wrong. He called it schizophrenic. Can you remember me calling it manic-depressive? LOL


If you have other sentiment data you are looking at, please share your source and we can discuss it
Attached Image
  • #19,175
  • May 21, 2015 8:15am May 21, 2015 8:15am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
The Fed's Computer Model Of The US Economy "Sees Little Slack" (And A Big Clue From Gartman)
Submitted by http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...root/frbus.jpg
Even without a double seasonal adjustment, the Fed may very well surprise with not only a September, but even a June hike. After all recall that to Yellen stocks are now clearly overvalued, and the cornered Fed Chairwoman is between a rock and a hard place - keep failing to rase rates and risk another bond tantrum as all the shorts are squeezed leading to even more illiquidity and volatility, or slowly take the air out of the stock bubble (good luck with that).



Like I said last week.

With early Hikes she may be able to crush the stock markets a bit, and she then has the ability to lower the rates again if she feels the need.......

Although I think, that the US data are now almost so bad, that she can not afford to raise the rates anytime soon, above may be that what she might do
  • #19,176
  • May 21, 2015 8:17am May 21, 2015 8:17am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Not Thursday Humor: Saudi Arabia Plans To Head U.N. Human Rights Council


OK, where is the problem:

the Saudis behead with Swords, the US send drones


In this word of craziness, only few states are left who can do this job
  • #19,177
  • May 21, 2015 8:19am May 21, 2015 8:19am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Indonesia Just Sank "A Large Chinese Vessel" And 40 Other Fishing Boats In The South China Sea


  • #19,178
  • May 21, 2015 9:10am May 21, 2015 9:10am
[quote=infinitus;8276655]{image} The Fed's Computer Model Of The US Economy "Sees Little Slack" (And A Big Clue From Gartman) Submitted by {image} Even without a double seasonal adjustment, the Fed may very well surprise with not only a September, but even a June hike.

I have a lot of doubts about the path designed by the FED about the rate hikes. The rates must be gradually hiked when and if the econmy is rehotted, burning...with the demand going like a train.. and each week the US' datas are worsening...,unemployment...,sales....

But on the other hand they should do something with the stock market, as this is the one that is going like a train... thanks to QE drugs..

So, they are in a crossroads. If they hike rates, they will give a bad favour to the economy...
  • #19,179
  • May 21, 2015 9:38am May 21, 2015 9:38am
Quoting infinitus
{image} Indonesia Just Sank "A Large Chinese Vessel" And 40 Other Fishing Boats In The South China Sea

Yea, I've read about it..

Sailors are safe & healthy, only ships were sunk in South China Sea but they were caught within Indonesian territory in South east sea region.

Question is why such a Large Chinese Vessel fishing on relatively small sea with less fish while they could fish on South China Sea which is larger sea with more fish ?
  • #19,180
  • May 21, 2015 10:23am May 21, 2015 10:23am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Yea, I've read about it.. Sailors are safe & healthy, only ships were sunk in South China Sea but they were caught within Indonesian territory in South east sea region. Question is why such a Large Chinese Vessel fishing on relatively small sea with less fish while they could fish on South China Sea which is larger sea with more fish ?
Well this is event that is ongoing for 90% of fishing countries especially those that have poor resources in water or are heavy under fishing. Tons of countries are packed in there, they go cross the boarder fish and try their luck as long as oposite fishermen dont call up police/army. Usually the reason for doing so is simply becouse its more to pull out in going trough to neighbours sea thats what most of fishing accidents/events are based on and same thing is happening here in China/Indonesia. Its not just fishing, its anything based on resources and China is doing fantastic job performing as who gives a fuck power, going trough boarders getting everything they can. Vietnam, Thailand, Japan (not that much), Indonesia, India...China doesnt have single good relationship with neighbour state.
Btw size of sea doesnt have anything to do in fishing, its all about what is in the sea. There are huge salt water surfaces on planet, 99% extinct or unpopulated.
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