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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #19,141
  • May 19, 2015 8:23am May 19, 2015 8:23am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} For the second option, we would come back to the channel, and to 1.14 levels, isn'it? About murray , 1,1120-00 is not an overextension? Bearing in mind the way that has been done.

When Oil and EU swing further in tight correlation, that may work out


Regarding Murrey Math

When you see such strong Momentum moves,either switch to higher TF's (look at the right chart, the daily Murrey), or stay away from Murrey. Keep in mind:

it works best in sideways movements


also read here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post4500676



And here:

starting page from my old Shangri-La thread

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=329948


excerpt:


Murrey Math:

my Murrey Math indicator for MT4 http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...202012%2016:13

http://tradinglib.com/indicators/murrey-math
http://howitworks.mymurreymath.com/
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...202012%2015:33
http://www.foretrade.com/MM_description.htm
http://www.bonniehill.net/pages/murrey.html
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post4500676
http://meta4valas.blogspot.de/2010/0...rrey-math.html
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...52#post4201852
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=159471
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=202379


Maybe read this article first:

http://www.foretrade.com/MM_description.htm

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post4500676

The math behind that all is a bit hard to understand. Especially when you read the links directly from Murrey himself. You will see.......

To simplify the method:

price tries to find its equilibrium. So when price travels in one direction or the other, it will come back to the equilibrium or build a new one. The longer price travels in one direction, the higher the probability for a reversal. And that is the point of Murrey Math - to define areas of probability for reversal.

The Murrey Math indicator looks back a certain period of time (for Forex this look-back period (p-value) is best set to 32) to find the high and low in this period. Then it calculates with regard to Murrey's rules the equilibrium and the octave lines/Murrey Math trading lines. Basically, there is no need to understand the detailed math behind that.

Keep in mind: the original Murrey Math method is very complex. It comes with "circles of conflicts", "speed angles" and a few more. I do only use the horizontal lines of his Method, called the "octave lines" or "Murey Math Trading Lines" (MMTL).

This lines define the playing field for the next moves. The 4/8 line is the center, where price has its equilibrium.

Now when price travels in one direction, 3 factors judge the probability for reversal:

a) price relative to the MMTL
b) number of MMTL price took out on its journey since its last change in direction
c) time

The octave lines are influenced by two factors:

a) price
b) time

When forces push price in one direction and it runs out of the octave, the octave has to be calculated anew. That will cause the "octave jump".

But price influences the octave too. Because, like I mentioned above, the Indicator looks back a certain period of time and calculates the lines. One can see the influence of time very well, when price made a big move in short time. The octave lines are now fairly wide spaced. Now when price goes in a sideways range with little amplitude you can see, that the octave lines will come narrower and narrower. You see: time can cause octave jumps too.


Best is to use the Murrey Math MT4 indicator I did provide at the starting page of Shangri-La, because this Indicator calculates the lines in the right way. There are some indicators out, which calculate wrong.
  • #19,142
  • May 19, 2015 8:34am May 19, 2015 8:34am
[quote=infinitus;8271178]{quote} When Oil and EU swing further in tight correlation

Thanks for above, it's complicated
  • #19,143
  • May 19, 2015 8:34am May 19, 2015 8:34am
EU

1084 nearly zero-business zone

judged from the pips travelled today plus + Murrey Math + volume profile

I think we have a bigger chance for some up-movement now than much more down today
  • #19,144
  • May 19, 2015 8:42am May 19, 2015 8:42am
[quote=Lavanda;8271218]
Quoting infinitus
{quote} When Oil and EU swing further in tight correlation Thanks for above, it's complicated

na, not really


There is no deeper need to understand the whole mathematics behind Murrey Math.

But you have to understand, that the lines are not static and can change

A) either after each period

B) when price moves outside of the octave (then the octave gets recalculated immediately)


Many times Murrey lines get hit nearly by the pip,but do not bet on that. It s much better to think in zones.


Many here in FF are dreaming of entries to the pip, with extremely high R:R then.

For me, the central question for this is:

when you are permanently able to get the right trades to the pip, which then results often enough in R.R of 1:50, 1:100 etc, the really question then is (when it would work): what are these people doing here after years? They should be financially settled within a few years max.

Judge it from this point.

I am here while earning money in order to finance my life. When I have enough, I will stop trading and be in the mountains 24/7/365 to the end of my life
  • #19,145
  • May 19, 2015 8:47am May 19, 2015 8:47am
must read

http://news.forexlive.com/!/traders-...ivate-20150519

Traders pissed off after discovering Coeure ECB speech delivered in private


snippet:

What. A. Joke.
So were left wondering if it was a case of incompetence or corruption but with 1,800 employees at the ECB, it's hard to imagine that someone forgot to hit the button. And whatever the Chatham House rule is, it needs to be turfed.


Governments spend millions and fine banks billions over moving FX rates 3 pips at the fix and the idiots at the ECB deliver a speech that moves the euro 170 pips in private.

  • #19,146
  • May 19, 2015 9:09am May 19, 2015 9:09am
Quoting infinitus
must read http://news.forexlive.com/!/traders-...ivate-20150519 Traders pissed off after discovering Coeure ECB speech delivered in private snippet: What. A. Joke. So were left wondering if it was a case of incompetence or corruption but with 1,800 employees at the ECB, it's hard to imagine that someone forgot to hit the button. And whatever the Chatham House rule is, it needs to be turfed. Governments spend millions and fine banks billions over moving FX rates 3 pips at the fix and the idiots...
Haha. Seriously even if there would be 0 proff of market manipulation and insider trading, i wouldnt believe you if you would tell me Draghi has no trading account that is tied to someone elses name. And probably same goes along with majority of employees at ECB. Funny side is how much cash gets turned on insider trading, which you pointed out. There is tens billions turned on such info/even which dwarfs many many illegal things happening in whole EU probably for week/s.
  • #19,147
  • May 19, 2015 6:19pm May 19, 2015 6:19pm
Hey D.P.,


something for you

http://traders.com/Documentation/FEE...adersTips.html
  • #19,148
  • May 19, 2015 8:33pm May 19, 2015 8:33pm
this thread has a lot of fundies information I could really use, well done infinitus, hows your trading lately?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #19,149
  • May 20, 2015 12:37am May 20, 2015 12:37am
Quoting fxtyrant
this thread has a lot of fundies information I could really use, well done infinitus, hows your trading lately?
Hi FxTyrant,

all is well and running. Hope same with you.

The funny thing here in thread is, that many of us like to read about certain fundamentals, but nearly never would trade it

Or do I see this wrong?

Who who trades fundamentally raises the left hand!

So let us see......


But maybe I/we process the information subconsciously.You know: you read something and it keeps on influencing your bias
  • #19,150
  • May 20, 2015 12:52am May 20, 2015 12:52am
1084 is the lower end of the recent distribution

either it is rejected quickly, or taken in a hurry.

Break to the downside, and we are within a new distribution, which spans down to the very lows
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 53 KB
  • #19,151
  • May 20, 2015 12:53am May 20, 2015 12:53am
if 1084 is broken, look as target to the even MM lines (red ones) on the daily MM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 53 KB
  • #19,152
  • May 20, 2015 1:10am May 20, 2015 1:10am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi FxTyrant, all is well and running. Hope same with you. The funny thing here in thread is, that many of us like to read about certain fundamentals, but nearly never would trade it Or do I see this wrong? Who who trades fundamentally raises the left hand! So let us see...... But maybe I/we process the information subconsciously.You know: you read something and it keeps on influencing your bias
im trading fundamentals but problem as you can see with me trading fundamentals is that I often enter positions earlier than supposed to....and usually end up with trades having drawdown before turing backin profit just like the EURUSD short ive been short about 2 weeks ago around 1.12, and also the USDJPY long from 119.80... This trade was a beast I entered long back in april only to close in profit for 110 pip today....
so yea fundamentals are very often trading the correct direction but timing is a little off at times....

technical traders are very often precise with timing but wrong on the direction because of false signals appearing in charts.....

and because while I trade fundamentals I do have a technical side to my trading but that's called psych levels... I usually ignore numbers that are not rounded... if you tell me 1.10833 I would say. the psych level is 1.1050 because orders at rounded numbers are usually much larger than random numberd levels.
banks quote prices at rounded price. that's how physical fx are dealt. if you go to any branch and say you want to exchange euro using USD. they would say they are only gona give you 1.10 and not 1.10833

large sized options in fx are also in rounded number levels. the more rounded the more psychological that level is.... so that's where I usually look at the price action instead.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #19,153
  • May 20, 2015 1:14am May 20, 2015 1:14am
Quoting infinitus
Hey D.P., something for you http://traders.com/Documentation/FEE...adersTips.html
Thanks, Markus,

Cought.

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #19,154
  • May 20, 2015 1:28am May 20, 2015 1:28am
Quoting infinitus
if 1084 is broken, look as target to the even MM lines (red ones) on the daily MM {image}

break of the 1108 caused the 4h MM to jump

here actual picture
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 59 KB
  • #19,155
  • May 20, 2015 1:31am May 20, 2015 1:31am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} im trading fundamentals but problem as you can see with me trading fundamentals is that I often enter positions earlier than supposed to....and usually end up with trades having drawdown before turing backin profit just like the EURUSD short ive been short about 2 weeks ago around 1.12, and also the USDJPY long from 119.80... This trade was a beast I entered long back in april only to close in profit for 110 pip today.... so yea fundamentals are very often trading the correct direction but timing is a little off at times.... technical traders...

will come back to that later in the evening - am on business trip and my appointments are looming


catch you later
  • #19,156
  • May 20, 2015 1:42am May 20, 2015 1:42am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} break of the 1108 caused the 4h MM to jump here actual picture {image}
it likely will break 1108, and then bounce around 1.1010.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot from 2015-05-20 01:39:53.png Size: 29 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #19,157
  • May 20, 2015 1:56am May 20, 2015 1:56am
Hi Markus, you asked about ThinkorSwim history data. Sorry for late reply cause I was offline for a while.

It looks like their data is in memory buffer, since I notice that every time I log on to their platform, it takes a while to reload all of their data for the charts to be displayed. While still logged on to the platform, if I change to another trading symbol and then switch back to the original symbol, all data for the original symbol will be re-downloaded from their website.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #19,158
  • May 20, 2015 2:05am May 20, 2015 2:05am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} will come back to that later in the evening - am on business trip and my appointments are looming catch you later
btw added you on Skype.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #19,159
  • May 20, 2015 3:05am May 20, 2015 3:05am
The last two weeks low has been erased, so I'm waiting at least a try from these levels:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1431450399

Even if the move fails, than 50% of the previous down move is around 1.12700-800, just like the 3drive patterns first top...
So buying under 1.1 and SL into entry + comission could be profitable.

What do you think?
f(z)=z2+c
  • #19,160
  • May 20, 2015 5:40am May 20, 2015 5:40am
1134 short EU. Rejection area of flip zone, sellers are trying hard, will flip it if it gets above 1130.
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