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U.S, trade balance

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 10, 2006 4:46am Aug 10, 2006 4:46am
Hi all

Today there will be a trade balance news for USD, Any comment for this news is much apprecaited,
<table class="tborder" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><thead><tr><td class="alt1" align="center">USA</td> <td class="alt1">Trade Balance</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">[img]images/misc/mi_med.gif[/img]</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">
</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-64.5B</td> <td class="alt1" align="center">-63.8B</td></tr></thead></table>
Do you think it will move the market or it will be a whipsaw?!

with kind regards
mohsen
  • #2
  • Aug 10, 2006 4:48am Aug 10, 2006 4:48am
USD - CAD or USD - Eur????

Witch one makes a spike?
  • #3
  • Aug 10, 2006 4:50am Aug 10, 2006 4:50am
Quoting cantona7
USD - CAD or USD - Eur????

Witch one makes a spike?
I think if there's any spike you should stick with GBP/USD.
  • #4
  • Aug 10, 2006 4:52am Aug 10, 2006 4:52am
why GBP???
  • #5
  • Aug 10, 2006 5:01am Aug 10, 2006 5:01am
Quoting cantona7
why GBP???
I have traded this news before and see GBP result is much better, it is your IDEA, you choose and ride it,
I'm here to listen from exprenced trader to see the Trade balance number and help me, and put comment here, i still dont know if there's any spike for it, please people, comment here
  • #6
  • Aug 10, 2006 6:05am Aug 10, 2006 6:05am
It costs US$1.9 per GBP.
But only USD$1.28 per EUR.

Do the math (calculus): GBPUSD will rise faster than EURUSD should USD depreciate. However, EURUSD will fall faster than GBPUSD should USD appreciates.
  • #7
  • Aug 10, 2006 6:34am Aug 10, 2006 6:34am
Quoting BurgerKing
It costs US$1.9 per GBP.
But only USD$1.28 per EUR.

Do the math (calculus): GBPUSD will rise faster than EURUSD should USD depreciate. However, EURUSD will fall faster than GBPUSD should USD appreciates.
uh... could you please show us the calculus that leads you to this conclusion?
I'm not insane; my mother had me tested.
  • #8
  • Aug 10, 2006 6:40am Aug 10, 2006 6:40am
Quoting RoBiK
uh... could you please show us the calculus that leads you to this conclusion?
The divergence on Eur/Gbp shows that if there is any fall then Gbp should fall faster as the above said pair is eyeing north.
  • #9
  • Aug 10, 2006 7:03am Aug 10, 2006 7:03am
Quoting kolachi
The divergence on Eur/Gbp shows that if there is any fall then Gbp should fall faster as the above said pair is eyeing north.
i agree, the pair has been heading north the last two days... but i think that BurgerKing was not talking about this relation.
The discussion was about the news spike and considering that we are talking here about a few minutes after the news release and that it is US related new,s we can assume that in theese few minutes the EUR/GBP rate won't change significantly.

Actually when i look at other pairs, today the JPY is showing the biggest stength against other currencies...
I'm not insane; my mother had me tested.
  • #10
  • Aug 10, 2006 7:09am Aug 10, 2006 7:09am
Quoting RoBiK
i agree, the pair has been heading north the last two days... but i think that BurgerKing was not talking about this relation.
The discussion was about the news spike and considering that we are talking here about a few minutes after the news release and that it is US related new,s we can assume that in theese few minutes the EUR/GBP rate won't change significantly.
Agreed.
  • #11
  • Aug 10, 2006 7:44am Aug 10, 2006 7:44am
Whats wrong with the fx?! Deficit was slightly greater than expected and, as I know that should push eur/usd up??!?! What the heck hapened there?
  • #12
  • Aug 10, 2006 7:50am Aug 10, 2006 7:50am
Trying to trade the news again? The market doesnt always follow the script. I just think the BULLS are giving up on the EURUSD.




Quoting fastbusiness
Whats wrong with the fx?! Deficit was slightly greater than expected and, as I know that should push eur/usd up??!?! What the heck hapened there?
  • #13
  • Aug 10, 2006 8:04am Aug 10, 2006 8:04am
The figure was only "slightly" bad. So it did not merit too much movement. However, people looked at UK terror plot as Euro / GBP Negative news and went dollor bull instead.

PS. I have redo the math on my assumption on GBPUSD and EURUSD movement. GBPUSD indeed move up/down more than EURUSD (assuming EURGBP remains constant). As it is, GBPUSD moves approx 48% more than EURUSD.
  • #14
  • Aug 10, 2006 8:19am Aug 10, 2006 8:19am
thank you guys for all your help and comment, this trade balance was not good for trade only short but a little bit go up and then shot down, i remember TB fo previous release that go down quickly.

best regards
Mohsen
  • #15
  • Aug 10, 2006 8:24am Aug 10, 2006 8:24am
<table style="border-style: groove; font-family: Arial; font-size: 7.5pt; width: 100%;" id="NewsIndex" border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr style="color: Black; background-color: rgb(231, 227, 231);"><td style="font-weight: bold;" halign="left" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top" width="60">08:42</td><td>The trade deficit for May was revised from -63.8 to -65.0, so the June trade deficit actually did narrow vs. May, but from a higher level. This appears to be emboldening USD buyers after the failed test of 1.2900/10 earlier, and short-term support at 1.2840 has given way already setting up a test back to 1.2800 rising channel support. Net-net, the Trade deficit represents a negative to 2Q GDP revisions and this is ultimately a dollar negative. IT's just a question of how short of dollars is the market and it seems we have to go lower before we can go higher. </td> </tr> <tr style="color: Black; background-color: White;"> <td style="font-weight: bold;" halign="left" nowrap="nowrap" valign="top" width="60">08:35</td><td>US weekl jobless claims a bit higher at 319Kand continuing claims also up at 2.480 mio, but the prior week's continuing claims were revised lower to 2.432 from 2.480, so a bit unclear as to when the weakening took place, but clear that unemployment is lasting longer</td></tr></tbody></table>
It's about more than just the New Numbers.
  • #16
  • Aug 10, 2006 10:29am Aug 10, 2006 10:29am
..cable is goin down ....already 150pips,terrorism or what?
  • #17
  • Aug 10, 2006 1:08pm Aug 10, 2006 1:08pm
Stupid of me!

I took a nap exactly 15 minutes before hell broke loose! Woke up to see cable at low 1.89? even touching mid 1.88 along the way?

This is the 2nd time napping took some pretty penny from me today!

I sure need some "trade buddies" who could ring me up for a heads up!
  • #18
  • Aug 10, 2006 1:09pm Aug 10, 2006 1:09pm
Quoting BurgerKing
Stupid of me!

I took a nap exactly 15 minutes before hell broke loose! Woke up to see cable at low 1.89? even touching mid 1.88 along the way?

This is the 2nd time napping took some pretty penny from me today!
BK, ya gotta stop eatin' that junk food.:
  • #19
  • Aug 10, 2006 1:23pm Aug 10, 2006 1:23pm
I dont eat BK nor McD.

Even my gold position closed at $644. Its now $634 for a whopping 1000 pips unrealized profit! OK. its time to BUY! it will hit 40s once the terror is over.

If i cant have luck trading currency for the week, perhaps i;d go metal for a while
  • #20
  • Last Post: Aug 10, 2006 6:06pm Aug 10, 2006 6:06pm
Since when di the USD become a safe heaven currency? Gold and CHF used to be the traditional safe haven currencies.
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