In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #2,042
- May 20, 2015 11:39am May 20, 2015 11:39am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #2,044
- Edited 12:05pm May 20, 2015 11:52am | Edited 12:05pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
{quote} Interesting! Thanks for sharing. But I seriously doubt the fix would stop right here. Probably lesser but still ongoing. Greed is human nature.
Just about every major move happens opposite of spike.Bill Williams fractals show this more clearly
Most Interesting thing about Bill Williams indicators and trading philosophy I find most useful is fractal.
He calls it "Change of market behavior" He might of stubble accidentally on ORDER fLOW
Some life back on EG
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #2,047
- May 20, 2015 12:39pm May 20, 2015 12:39pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #2,048
- May 20, 2015 12:41pm May 20, 2015 12:41pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
{quote} I think the Euro/Pound situation was due to the ECB making Coeure's speech public -- totally beyond your control. I was reading comments from people who lost thousands in seconds because of a speech made by an ECB policy maker that was not on any economic calendar. It was a double slap in the face: 1) A private meeting where the participants could legally trade based on confidential information which set the Euro move in motion. 2) The ECB releasing those normally confidential(?!?) minutes without any announcement knowing fully well the...
but all is not lost EG showing some life.I am more concern on UJ and UC since my positions on them are larger.I am going to grill some meat so I can stomach watching this shit hit the ceiling in 20min
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #2,050
- May 20, 2015 1:00pm May 20, 2015 1:00pm
{quote} I was not aware of his speech
Even Goldman Sachs wasn't in the know. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...-coeure-speech
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
- #2,051
- May 20, 2015 1:14pm May 20, 2015 1:14pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #2,053
- May 20, 2015 1:43pm May 20, 2015 1:43pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #2,055
- Edited 10:42am May 21, 2015 9:35am | Edited 10:42am
Pound seems to be the leading strongest currency, so I've completed a monthly comparison against all non-exotics. Euro/Pound and Pound/Kiwi I've already posted and have clearly broken down/up respectively. GBP/NZD I'm already long and EUR/GBP I'll now look for some kind of resistant signal to enter short.
Pound/Aussie is approaching monthly RSI resistance and the February high, and given my favouring Kiwi weakness over Aussie I'll stay away from this pair for now. Pound/Loonie is still shy of the February high but is at the 50% monthly Fibonacci and monthly RSI is showing divergence, so though MACD shows gaining strength I'll stick to my Pound/Kiwi for my major vs minor trade for the time being.
Pound/USD should be obvious in about five minutes -- that's some terrible US data we're looking at right now, and unless the fix is in to manipulate USD higher, shorting USD should be clear choice. [Update: Surprising lack of response to significantly weak major USD economic data. Is the market waiting for Draghi and Fischer to speak at 1:30? We've already had the ECB and FOMC announcements and comments from their respective board members. What could Fischer possibly say that could suggest strengthening the dollar after yesterday's minutes cited the strong dollar as being responsible for the weakening economy? I can only assume it's the surprise we were warned to expect. Perhaps it's what what Katrin Assenmacher (SNB), Ulrich Bindseil (ECB), Niels Lynggard Hansen (Dansmarks Nationalbank), and Jamie McAndrews (Federal Reserve) had to say at the same private meeting Coeure's market-shocking speech came from.]
That leaves Pound/Yen which is at the December high but all signs are pointing North if it can beat 190. It's passed through the monthly RSI pivot of 62, bounced off monthly RSI channel support, passed through the 50% monthly Fibonacci, there's monthly MACD bullish crossover, and there's plenty of room before it hits the monthly RSI ceiling of 75. Note that the February 190 high has been critical support/resistance back in 2003-2005, so breaking above this level is significant, and if that happens I think it's heading for the 61.8% monthly Fibonacci at psychological resistance 200.
GBP/JPY monthly
Pound/Aussie is approaching monthly RSI resistance and the February high, and given my favouring Kiwi weakness over Aussie I'll stay away from this pair for now. Pound/Loonie is still shy of the February high but is at the 50% monthly Fibonacci and monthly RSI is showing divergence, so though MACD shows gaining strength I'll stick to my Pound/Kiwi for my major vs minor trade for the time being.
Pound/USD should be obvious in about five minutes -- that's some terrible US data we're looking at right now, and unless the fix is in to manipulate USD higher, shorting USD should be clear choice. [Update: Surprising lack of response to significantly weak major USD economic data. Is the market waiting for Draghi and Fischer to speak at 1:30? We've already had the ECB and FOMC announcements and comments from their respective board members. What could Fischer possibly say that could suggest strengthening the dollar after yesterday's minutes cited the strong dollar as being responsible for the weakening economy? I can only assume it's the surprise we were warned to expect. Perhaps it's what what Katrin Assenmacher (SNB), Ulrich Bindseil (ECB), Niels Lynggard Hansen (Dansmarks Nationalbank), and Jamie McAndrews (Federal Reserve) had to say at the same private meeting Coeure's market-shocking speech came from.]
That leaves Pound/Yen which is at the December high but all signs are pointing North if it can beat 190. It's passed through the monthly RSI pivot of 62, bounced off monthly RSI channel support, passed through the 50% monthly Fibonacci, there's monthly MACD bullish crossover, and there's plenty of room before it hits the monthly RSI ceiling of 75. Note that the February 190 high has been critical support/resistance back in 2003-2005, so breaking above this level is significant, and if that happens I think it's heading for the 61.8% monthly Fibonacci at psychological resistance 200.
GBP/JPY monthly
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
- #2,057
- Edited 6:12am May 22, 2015 5:59am | Edited 6:12am
Dollar/Yen has been range-bound for close to six months now, so I took a look at the historical significance of this area, and you can see the range between 120 and 123, notable as the area between the two Fibonacci I drew, has been support/resistance all the way back to the eighties. Also significant, Monthly RSI is not only at the highest level its ever been (at least as far back as my charting software goes), its now hit parallel channel resistance.
In light of BoJ Kuroda's increasingly positive comments, and particularly if the USD Index breaks support, I think a pullback to the descending price support line (red) which has never been tested from the topside may be the next longer-term move. Also, from a long term risk/reward point of view I have to favour going short from this area, targeting either the ~61.8% Fibonacci of the 2008-2012 move at 105, or the ~50% Fibonacci at psychological support 100, both of which were reactive price levels in the last range-bound area during the move up between December 2013 and October 2014. Calculating from the 2008 high of 124, this gives a better than 1:5 risk/reward ratio at the current price.
Obviously, this is a long-term viewpoint which may not prove particularly useful for daily moves and scalping, not to mention monthly RSI could unwind simply by continuing this sideways trend for several months allowing for a break higher, but I'm not sure the current economic climate supports the idea of Dollar/Yen above 125, though history shows that's certainly a possibility.
USD/JPY historical
USD/JPY monthly
In light of BoJ Kuroda's increasingly positive comments, and particularly if the USD Index breaks support, I think a pullback to the descending price support line (red) which has never been tested from the topside may be the next longer-term move. Also, from a long term risk/reward point of view I have to favour going short from this area, targeting either the ~61.8% Fibonacci of the 2008-2012 move at 105, or the ~50% Fibonacci at psychological support 100, both of which were reactive price levels in the last range-bound area during the move up between December 2013 and October 2014. Calculating from the 2008 high of 124, this gives a better than 1:5 risk/reward ratio at the current price.
Obviously, this is a long-term viewpoint which may not prove particularly useful for daily moves and scalping, not to mention monthly RSI could unwind simply by continuing this sideways trend for several months allowing for a break higher, but I'm not sure the current economic climate supports the idea of Dollar/Yen above 125, though history shows that's certainly a possibility.
USD/JPY historical
USD/JPY monthly
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.