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  • #135,121
  • May 20, 2015 2:51am May 20, 2015 2:51am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Indeed. As expected 1.108x tested for the European Opening. A failure to crack it in the top of next hour and session looks pretty much done until the FOMC minutes. More importantly, setting the monthly low (and high almost automatically as a consequences given the current TA) will be confirmed in the next couple of sessions. Well done all to all shorts from the highs. Here i didn't even manage to take 1 tick in the whole leg given the way it triggered ... sisse
Sisse
what is your short-term outlook?
Do you think it is time to switch to sell mode on the first pullback?
  • #135,122
  • May 20, 2015 3:04am May 20, 2015 3:04am
The last two weeks low has been erased, so I'm waiting at least a try from these levels:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1431450399

Even if the move fails, than 50% of the previous down move is around 1.12700-800, just like the 3drive patterns first top...
So buying under 1.1 and SL into entry + comission could be profitable.

What do you think?
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,123
  • May 20, 2015 3:29am May 20, 2015 3:29am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Fib still working like a charm
Why don't you try same thing on H4 you will get wider range to play.
  • #135,124
  • May 20, 2015 3:52am May 20, 2015 3:52am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Why don't you try same thing on H4 you will get wider range to play.
Thanks. I do. But my up fib (from mid-April is all done as far as I can see, and my down one needs a retrace to 1265-95 for me to start using it. If this current lower tf one cant hold the mofu where it is right now, I'm going to consider it finished too, since I usually don't expect levels more than 400.
  • #135,125
  • May 20, 2015 3:53am May 20, 2015 3:53am
​
Quoting jaxx80
{quote} Sisse what is your short-term outlook? Do you think it is time to switch to sell mode on the first pullback?
I already posted the intraday outlook in the opening range... test 1.108x in the european opening, unlocked nothingness until NY and prolly the FED minutes if markets go to sleep after Ny opening. For the news flows, we'll talk later today....

Quoting Kofmaster
{quote} I have the same in mind. Given this kind of PA where I can't find any entry at all, 1.107 should holds. I have 1.1340 in mind. How about you?
Quoting hathor
The last two weeks low has been erased, s.... 50% of the previous down move is around 1.12700-800, just like the 3drive patterns first top... So buying under 1.1 and SL into entry + comission could be profitable. What do you think?
Yes hathor. VERY much agree. That's exactly the swing play I have in mind.

1.128x was the aggressive first option to buy but it was cleaned up in 1 minute (literally) on that last knee jerk reaction move yesterday unlocking the natural retrace you are mentioning for loading in at the lows. The main issue that changed with the this retrace is that timing extended for 2 or 3 weeks for the whole move to play out as now we have shorts riding the short term move down so we may get wide chop zone for the next few days....

For now, the only party pooper is the FED. So as long as we have uneventful coming weeks in that front, it will play out with the next FED meeting (failing to clearly signal September hikes) for the extension (we wont blow out 1.146x without the FED in June). A bit more shorter term and technically speaking, a knee jerk reaction (like the one yesterday) is not sustainable and usually wont last more than a couple of session so there is a very strong chances to be filled back up in a quick move (Fed minutes? maybe but I don't thing so, ECB sounds more likely) before completing the current leg.

For now map is pretty much clear in all fronts. Lets see how it goes after the roll today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,126
  • May 20, 2015 4:07am May 20, 2015 4:07am
Than lets test our patience.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,127
  • May 20, 2015 4:07am May 20, 2015 4:07am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Thank you MissPips! May I ask what MOFU indicates in the Gator's world? The place where big boys want to enter/exit? It has puzzled me for a while now, hehe... I will try to learn this fib system and see how it works on me. Thank you!
See why these little suckers are called mofus?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mofu.jpg Size: 426 KB
  • #135,128
  • May 20, 2015 4:10am May 20, 2015 4:10am
Quoting hathor
Than lets test our patience.
je je je ..well thats how we get pay in this business, don't we? ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,129
  • May 20, 2015 4:30am May 20, 2015 4:30am
Quoting sisse
{quote} je je je ..well thats how we get pay in this business, don't we? ... sisse
An other technical pattern, which can support our view:
(Even if current pattern is not perfect and even if it fails, it can also support a bounce ('try') from current levels)
Attached Image
f(z)=z2+c
  • #135,130
  • May 20, 2015 5:03am May 20, 2015 5:03am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} See why these little suckers are called mofus? {image}
An hour later. Nope, no such thing as mofus....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mofo1.jpg Size: 317 KB
  • #135,131
  • May 20, 2015 5:47am May 20, 2015 5:47am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} An hour later. Nope, no such thing as mofus.... {image}
Hehe...still thanks for sharing though!
  • #135,132
  • May 20, 2015 5:52am May 20, 2015 5:52am
Quoting sisse
​{quote} I already posted the intraday outlook in the opening range... test 1.108x in the european opening, unlocked nothingness until NY and prolly the FED minutes if markets go to sleep after Ny opening. For the news flows, we'll talk later today.... {quote} {quote} Yes hathor. VERY much agree. That's exactly the swing play I have in mind. 1.128x was the aggressive first option to buy but it was cleaned up in 1 minute (literally) on that last knee jerk reaction move yesterday unlocking the natural retrace you are mentioning for loading in...
I really doubt it will go under 1.1 though. Currently 1.106x is holding, 1.1 might not come, unless FOMC minutes are really bullish, or ECB is really dovish, which is more likely given how they behave. No?
I have also re-checked things, and a soft buy is also my opinion now. I just don't know where to put SL in such an environment, haha... so I am sideline for the time being.
  • #135,133
  • May 20, 2015 5:55am May 20, 2015 5:55am
Quoting Kofmaster
{quote} I have the same in mind. Given this kind of PA where I can't find any entry at all, 1.107 should holds. I have 1.1340 in mind. How about you?
Hey there, long time no see.
Hope all is well!
If buy, I am thinking TP at 1.153x first, and then 1.166x-1.168x. They might overflow, but I can't count on that. Won't be greedy.
  • #135,134
  • May 20, 2015 5:57am May 20, 2015 5:57am
Quoting sisse
{quote} je je je ..well thats how we get pay in this business, don't we? ... sisse
Sisse, the media is screaming that ECB has put a hard cap of 1.15 to the pair given how they behave.
How much of a damn do you give to such BS?
Thank you!
  • #135,135
  • May 20, 2015 6:27am May 20, 2015 6:27am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Sisse, the media is screaming that ECB has put a hard cap of 1.15 to the pair given how they behave. How much of a damn do you give to such BS? Thank you!
what media? ... if you are referring at non specialised outlets (all main newspapers and tv news) they don't really have much influence marketwise. They basically just push whatever is chewed it to them by the big institutions to fill their financial pages. Some of them, add a bit of salt and pepper, mixing up with politics and their own particular ideological agenda to target their core readers but really nothing interesting for us traders...

Outside of the media comments, 1.15xx is not rocket science in the mid term picture. Every single trader/investor and analyst have it in charts. Its like parity. We all know is there. So sure i also strongly doubt if we break it in the short term that we can hold any attempt above that handle for more than a small technical move for a couple of weeks max (a quick "in and out").....

Quoting hathor
{quote} An other technical pattern, which can support our view: (Even if current pattern is not perfect and even if it fails, it can also support a bounce ('try') from current levels) {image}
I am not very use to chart patterns but for the sake of the argument here is my doddle interpreting your view in sisse's rough flows ( )....

sisse
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sissewwedge.jpg Size: 34 KB
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,136
  • May 20, 2015 6:48am May 20, 2015 6:48am
considering some EU longs around 11.880

USDOLLAR D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0051.png Size: 60 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #135,137
  • May 20, 2015 6:59am May 20, 2015 6:59am
[quote=sisse;8273484]{quote} what media? ... if you are referring at non specialised outlets (all main newspapers and tv news) they don't really have much influence marketwise. They basically just push whatever is chewed it to them by the big institutions to fill their financial pages. Some of them, add a bit of salt and pepper, mixing up with politics and their own particular ideological agenda to target their core readers but really nothing interesting for us traders... Outside of the media comments, 1.15xx is not rocket science in the mid term picture. Every single trader/investor and analyst have it in charts. Its like parity. We all know is there. So sure i also strongly doubt if we break it in the short term that we can hold any attempt above that handle for more than a small technical move for a couple of weeks max (a quick "in and out").....

Thank you! Yeah, I saw that from SAXO bank's trader platform, where everybody can post stuff you know. I don't believe them either. I see 1.15 is there, 1.16 is also there, even 1.18 is there...1.2 might be very very hard...and it won't be a straight line going up either.
But if hike is in Sep, we still have a lot of time...
  • #135,138
  • May 20, 2015 7:23am May 20, 2015 7:23am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} An hour later. Nope, no such thing as mofus.... {image}
I have been reading quite a bit about Mofus, can I please ask you to direct me to the right direction to learn more about it. Would be much obliged.
  • #135,139
  • May 20, 2015 7:24am May 20, 2015 7:24am
Quoting USD-Bear
considering some EU longs around 11.880 USDOLLAR D1: {image}
May I ask you what is the chart you always refer to as US Dollar? Thanks
  • #135,140
  • May 20, 2015 7:32am May 20, 2015 7:32am
Quoting workingforex
{quote} I have been reading quite a bit about Mofus, can I please ask you to direct me to the right direction to learn more about it. Would be much obliged.
Put everybody in FF except Gatorinla , Mr.Hatch, Rockerzeus, PharmOr and OfWolfandMan (have I forgotten anybody guys?) on ignore and then go to the EURUSD thread and read the conversations between Gator and the rest of them for last five years of the thread. Honestly, that's the only way I've found. It's Gator's idea and if you want to understand it you need to understand what he's thinking when he trades.

edit: And if you're going to do it, you might also not put Cloggie on ignore. Although he doesn't use Gator's methods, when he was posting it was interesting to compare the points where he traded with Gators.
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