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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,101
  • May 19, 2015 11:17am May 19, 2015 11:17am
I'm building shorts on UJ btw.
  • #135,102
  • May 19, 2015 11:35am May 19, 2015 11:35am
Quoting sisse
...Gator TA view is by far the most amazing and entertaining thing to witness intraday.
I am amazed by its accuracy which always makes me wonder why the heck these lines works ?? I mean prices move as the orders hit the desk but why gators levels get respect? Any ideas.. Anyone..?
  • #135,103
  • May 19, 2015 12:26pm May 19, 2015 12:26pm
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} I am amazed by its accuracy which always makes me wonder why the heck these lines works ?? I mean prices move as the orders hit the desk but why gators levels get respect? Any ideas.. Anyone..?
Math. The world repeats, some numbers mean more than others. Over time they repeat
  • #135,104
  • May 19, 2015 12:38pm May 19, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Math. The world repeats, some numbers mean more than others. Over time they repeat
Yeah.. 1+1=2; it makes sense
  • #135,105
  • May 19, 2015 12:53pm May 19, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
Nothing to see here if you are not holding shorts from above... sisse
Sisse, but if you are holding shorts from above, is it a good time to close them?
If you are not holding shorts from above, is this a good time to go long?
  • #135,106
  • Edited 2:00pm May 19, 2015 1:48pm | Edited 2:00pm
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} I am amazed by its accuracy which always makes me wonder why ....Any ideas.. Anyone..?
+90% of all micro intraday flows are now automated algorithmic trading, some of those values could arguably be reverse engineered manually (trail and error in hundred of thousand hours of chart time as for example Gator) if you have the expeiriecne, patience and hundred of thousand of hours tracking them.

Hacking a tiny part of the results of an algorithm alone is nice but useless for trading as you will be always facing the "hindsight dilemma" of manual trading. However, If you manage to incorporate those concepts in your trading plan and make a trading system yours thats a different thing ....

Quoting Shunyi
.... I am a bit confused about this short term swing's FA&TA and targets... Could you please explain a bit more when you have time of course? Thank you!
Don't get me wrong, its ok to go and back in questions especially with Fundamentals but this thread is getting too educational on basic trading....so let me give you a few general final hints on this issue before we end up destroying this thread...

As you know price moves in waves not in straight lines. One of the most important factors in trading that a lot of newcomers and struggling traders don't pay attention to is TIME. If you look around you can find 1 mill threads about indicators, price, fundamentals, options, fibs, Elliot theory, astrology and all hocus pocus you can imagine but you hardly will find something related to TIME.

Everything in chart reading is about perception and a lot problems and failed traders come from failing to perceive TIME.

 

  1. In a chart we all know by heart the Y axis (PRICE). We talk 99% time about it. Its very straight forward, a tick up = price up / or the opposite at any given time. In a 1 sec chart or in 1 year chart. So no issue there. The only variables in play are where do i enter and where do I exit using whatever tools you want to define those levels.


However in a 2 dimensional chart, TIME is very hard to understand. The space between candles for TA analysis in a 1 year chart is the same as the 1 second chart but obviously one will take a decade to play out for a small swing, while the other will take 10 seconds. This simple example shows exactly the problem. Our brain is not program to think about time in a static way.

 

  1. So you can see hundred of superb trades being call using H4 (random example) that should in general pan out +/- in a bit less than a week just getting bailout after 2 hours because price was going against...
  2. More pathetic is the opposite, those super M5 calls that should pan out in no more than a couple of hours with traders getting married with a position for days ...


With this in mind, you CANT put a SWING trade in a micro trade context as much as is stupid to do the opposite, put a micro trade in a swing trade context. You are getting confused because you are mixing up when we talk about mid term swings, swings and intraday flows. Quickly this a "cheatsheet" with a rough reference for TIME. Its not an exact science plus you should define what context do you want to play with...

====TIME====

Main trading Tfs / Rough average number of potential trades

 

  1. Intraday/Intraday trading: Session to H4 ranges. A handful of trades a week.
  2. Short term/Swing trading: Weekly to Daily ranges. A couple of trades a month.
  3. Mid Term/ Mid Term trading: Quarterly to Monthly ranges. A couple of trades a year.


Anything below intraday trading is just micro trading and i don't trade (and I would recommend that too).
​Anything above mid term is long term and its outside of practical trading scope. (for example a Q swing can last 5 years to pan out so ...lol ... you get the point).

There you have it. I hope it helps.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,107
  • May 19, 2015 2:32pm May 19, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting sisse
There you have it. I hope it helps. sisse
WOW...
Thank you!!! Can't say enough thank you for your time and care!
I've just grown a great deal!!!
  • #135,108
  • May 19, 2015 3:57pm May 19, 2015 3:57pm
Quoting sisse
...and that was pretty much it for today. We got the low of the day .....in the euro fueled with momentum on profit taking on the rally pre FOMC /ECB. ...
As expected 1.113x held and marked low of the day. A very very wide range open for tomorrow FED minutes (1.128x / 1.108x). Nothing to see until the European morning to map the final levels for the rest of the week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,109
  • May 19, 2015 6:41pm May 19, 2015 6:41pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ====TIME==== Main trading Tfs / Rough average number of potential trades Intraday/Intraday trading: Session to H4 ranges. A handful of trades a week. Short term/Swing trading: Weekly to Daily ranges. A couple of trades a month. Mid Term/ Mid Term trading: Quarterly to Monthly ranges. A couple of trades a year. Anything below intraday trading is just micro trading and i don't trade (and I would recommend that too). ​Anything above mid term is long term and its outside of practical trading scope. (for example a Q swing can last 5 years...
Do you believe micro trading is impossible or just not your preference?
  • #135,110
  • May 20, 2015 12:28am May 20, 2015 12:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} you hardly will find something related to TIME. Everything in chart reading is about perception and a lot problems and failed traders come from failing to perceive TIME. sisse
That was something Cloggie always used to say - that you have to know WHICH time frame is controlling the PA right now.

Also in Bemac's thread he was starting to discuss it (the idea of putting a fib on time itself, if I recall correctly) before he left.

His whole idea of putting those diagonal lines on the chart that his indie used, based on where you think the 50% box is is time related, because of course you have to construct them using time and they extend forward into time on the chart. His conclusion was that if the PA respects them as well as the fib lines, then you may have a correctly 'reverse engineered' fib that you can used to trade from in the future - i.e if you have correctly guessed where the big players have taken 50% off and the pace at which they are doing it, then you will have an idea where they are planning to go with the move and how long it will take them to get there, because the angle of the lines reflects the pace of the move. (I'm not sure if he actually articulated that idea in the thread so I don't know if you'll find it if you read it, but mathematically that's what those diagonal lines in his indie are - a projection of the past pace of the move into the future, based on how long it took them to construct the past part of the fib.)
  • #135,111
  • May 20, 2015 12:59am May 20, 2015 12:59am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} That was something Cloggie always used to say - that you have to know WHICH time frame is controlling the PA right now. Also in Bemac's thread he was starting to discuss it (the idea of putting a fib on time itself, if I recall correctly) before he left. His whole idea of putting those diagonal lines on the chart that his indie used, based on where you think the 50% box is is time related, because of course you have to construct them using time and they extend forward into time on the chart. His conclusion was that if the PA respects them...
Good morning！Thank you for sharing. It is just so sad that retail traders have to spend so much time and energy to figure out what big boys are doing...would be great if we can just read the chart and think like a big boy ourselves...
I hope one day I get to go work for one of those institutions.
  • #135,112
  • May 20, 2015 1:07am May 20, 2015 1:07am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Guess we don't have to start worrying just yet. Who want's to look at the London opening ranges on this chart and tell me they didn't know about/plan big moves like this three days in advance? {image}
Well surprise, surprise....
http://news.forexlive.com/!/traders-...ivate-20150519
  • #135,113
  • May 20, 2015 1:37am May 20, 2015 1:37am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Well surprise, surprise.... http://news.forexlive.com/!/traders-...ivate-20150519
Je je je.... Well it was rather weird the start of the move. Losing 150 ticks in 5 minutes without a proper report sounds and looks very suspicious.

I was personally piss off that it went off like that. I didn't even finish my early cup of coffee and boom an out of the blue movement....

I don't think his comments scheduled or not would have justify such a large move in 5 minute. There was more than that for the move and if my suspicions are true (clearing of mid term shorts) we may have unlocked the next swing high for the fed....

Whatever the case, it's always nasty to see how the bastards get caught using/abusing public servants to get info before is widely available to the public ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,114
  • May 20, 2015 1:48am May 20, 2015 1:48am
Expecting a bounce soon (Weekly ADR third extra extension, ADR adjusted mid for short day, ADRLow for split day, and 400% of fb all around 1066-62. Not a long recommendation, just a warning.
  • #135,115
  • May 20, 2015 2:08am May 20, 2015 2:08am
Quoting MissPips
Expecting a bounce soon (Weekly ADR third extra extension, ADR adjusted mid for short day, ADRLow for split day, and 400% of fb all around 1066-62. Not a long recommendation, just a warning.
Did you mean't the 20+ pip bounce or expecting a larger one?
  • #135,116
  • Edited 2:33am May 20, 2015 2:20am | Edited 2:33am
Quoting OfWolfAndMan
{quote} Did you mean't the 20+ pip bounce or expecting a larger one?
30. But who's counting? . There are days when I feel like I'm channeling Cloggie but I'm still not anywhere near as good as he was. He used to get around 30 on these kind of bounces. Past thirty I don't know. Have to wait and see what London thinks around 1106-11 if it gets there. (I'm a very short term scalper - for me most of the time it's much easier to figure out what's going to happen in the next 5-10 minutes than in the next hour - not to mention day or week..)
  • #135,117
  • May 20, 2015 2:31am May 20, 2015 2:31am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} 30. But who's counting? . There are days when I feel like I'm channeling Cloggie but I'm still not anywhere near as good as he was. He used to get around 30 on these kind of bounces. Past thirty I don't know. Have to wait and see what London things around 1106-11 if it gets there.
Had a buy from yesterday, closed it on the bounce (the first one) -1%
Not feeling good with the levels today, I'll be on the sidelines..
  • #135,118
  • May 20, 2015 2:32am May 20, 2015 2:32am
Quoting MissPips
Expecting a bounce soon (Weekly ADR third extra extension, ADR adjusted mid for short day, ADRLow for split day, and 400% of fb all around 1066-62. Not a long recommendation, just a warning.
Indeed. As expected 1.108x tested for the European Opening. A failure to crack it in the top of next hour and session looks pretty much done until the FOMC minutes.

More importantly, setting the monthly low (and high almost automatically as a consequences given the current TA) will be confirmed in the next couple of sessions.

Well done all to all shorts from the highs. Here i didn't even manage to take 1 tick in the whole leg given the way it triggered ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,119
  • Edited 2:52am May 20, 2015 2:41am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Je je je.... Well it was rather weird the start of the move. Losing 150 ticks in 5 minutes without a proper report sounds and looks very suspicious. I was personally piss off that it went off like that. I didn't even finish my early cup of coffee and boom an out of the blue movement.... I don't think his comments scheduled or not would have justify such a large move in 5 minute. There was more than that for the move and if my suspicions are true (clearing of mid term shorts) we may have unlocked the next swing high for the fed.......
I have the same in mind. Given this kind of PA where I can't find any entry at all, 1.107 should holds.

I have 1.1340 in mind.

How about you?
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #135,120
  • May 20, 2015 2:51am May 20, 2015 2:51am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Fib levels still doing their thing nicely. For a three day buildup I'd expect it to go to at least 400%. {image}
Fib still working like a charm
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