Long term market cycle detection/change | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Detection of a new bar for an EA in mql4 30 replies

Automatic Notification of pattern detection 2 replies

Indicator of candle detection without wick 0 replies

How to add slope detection comparative to an oscillator/price? 11 replies

Automatic Trend line, trend channel, support, resistance detection 3 replies

Attachments: Long term market cycle detection/change
Exit Attachments

Long term market cycle detection/change

  • #1
  • First Post: May 14, 2015 6:20am May 14, 2015 6:20am
After much coding, I get some great results with multiple-position single-pair M1-based EA's. See examples.

However! As you can see, it reaches some peak (after let's say 6 months to a year) and then it drops for quite some time, after which time it reverts again.

I've seen this pattern quite a few times. So it seems like there are market cycles, lasting from 6 months to a year.

How to detect these? If detection is possible, adaption is possible.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_EA_c2_h (1.2013-3.2015) USDJPY.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD_EA_c2_l (1.2013-3.2015) USDJPY.gif Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: v4_dated.gif Size: 8 KB
Not financial advice. For testing purposes only. Do not use on live account
  • #2
  • May 14, 2015 6:28am May 14, 2015 6:28am
Help is rewarded: the person who provides a succesful solution to this problem will get to see the cleaned up source code of one or two of the final EA's. Yes, that is source code. Not ex4.
Not financial advice. For testing purposes only. Do not use on live account
  • #3
  • May 14, 2015 6:56am May 14, 2015 6:56am
IMHO the only way to detect/anticipate these cycles is to address the cause of them - and the causes of market behavior shifts on this timeframe are entirely fundamental. Inflationary and economic cycles, business cycles, investment cycles and trends, trade flows etc, all have a major impact on how a currency's value fluctuates.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #4
  • May 14, 2015 3:31pm May 14, 2015 3:31pm
Quoting numbnuts
IMHO the only way to detect/anticipate these cycles is to address the cause of them - and the causes of market behavior shifts on this timeframe are entirely fundamental. Inflationary and economic cycles, business cycles, investment cycles and trends, trade flows etc, all have a major impact on how a currency's value fluctuates.
Thanks! Business cycles may possible be covered my months (June != December etc.), interesting. Any idea on how to cover any of the other items from within MT4 (and be able to backtest the same)?
Not financial advice. For testing purposes only. Do not use on live account
  • #5
  • May 14, 2015 7:22pm May 14, 2015 7:22pm
In testing vocabulary this is called filter. What roel said is one filter (time filter) and there are many such. I forgot the link, I think it was an article in old MT4 site. Even there is BUY only or SELL only day (or time). Then you can consider pyramiding and no TP or PL system where you leave all the orders open etc etc. Also they say if an EA performed profitably last year, this year it wont perform. (markets getting tougher and tougher).
  • #6
  • May 18, 2015 9:20pm May 18, 2015 9:20pm
Use your equity line as an indicator to detect these phenomenon. You can draw trendline to identify support and resistance in your equity line and you will catch the market cycle.
  • #7
  • May 19, 2015 12:21am May 19, 2015 12:21am
Quoting Rosalia
Use your equity line as an indicator to detect these phenomenon. You can draw trendline to identify support and resistance in your equity line and you will catch the market cycle.
Hi Rosalia, What's an equity line. Can you show me a screen shot ?
  • #8
  • Last Post: May 19, 2015 6:43pm May 19, 2015 6:43pm
Rosalia: Yes, I noticed the same previously too.

Pannet1: an example:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Equity SR.png Size: 26 KB
Not financial advice. For testing purposes only. Do not use on live account
0 traders viewing now