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The Really Useless Thread

  • #135,041
  • May 17, 2015 6:30am May 17, 2015 6:30am
I am a newbie only trading for a few months and also reading a lot of posts on this forum, I hope I can also share my opinion here.

I was this weekend just looking at a naked monthly all-time chart. In my opinion(from a TA perspective) a structure still has to completed before going lower.

1,074x is an all-time hard bottom, under there it can go to the all-time low. But I think before they can go to at least parity, they first have to visit the BO-point of the last cycle up. It went through that BO-point of that cycle but never came back to check it one more tiime.

So I think we might have to visit 1,204x again, with important stops at 1,164x, 1,174x, 1,187x, 1,192x. In my eyes 1,138x was an important level(1/2 of 1,204 and 1,073x).

I could be completely overseeing a lot things but I am a newbie and really want to learn from you guys.
  • #135,042
  • May 17, 2015 7:29am May 17, 2015 7:29am
Quoting rehorst
{quote} Do not follow Durden. He just tries to hook you into a dark belief of the financial world, and keep you hooked. Is some of what he says correct? Yes, just enough to hook you.

so you propose to watch CNBC or to read the Telegraph????

  • #135,043
  • May 18, 2015 2:33am May 18, 2015 2:33am
Quoting ceetee
I am a newbie only trading for a few months and also reading a lot of posts on this forum, I hope I can also share my opinion here. I was this weekend just looking at a naked monthly all-time chart. In my opinion(from a TA perspective) a structure still has to completed before going lower. 1,074x is an all-time hard bottom, under there it can go to the all-time low. But I think before they can go to at least parity, they first have to visit the BO-point of the last cycle up. It went through that BO-point of that cycle but never came back to check...
Well, you've got yourself an opinion of where EU might visit, before going the other way. I in no position to judge if its good or not, after-all our analysis are our own ways to figure out/make sense of the market moves.

Anyway since you've got a target, now you can look for setups in lower time frames that aim for the target 1.204x in your case, make a plan how to get in & out of a trade or more for that expected market move. The market may or may not move as you've predicted, if it does execute your trades, you may or may not make profits depending on your profit/loss appetite i.e how you position your entries & exits.

Try to do good trades. Also watch people make good trades & you're on the right path. GL
  • #135,044
  • May 18, 2015 3:18am May 18, 2015 3:18am
might be looking for EU longs around the 11.750 level

USDOLLAR D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #135,045
  • May 18, 2015 3:51am May 18, 2015 3:51am
Quoting USD-Bear
might be looking for EU longs around the 11.750 level USDOLLAR D1: {image}
Yes, have the USDollar going to at least 11.500 before a bounce. Could be worth a short around 1.155 area for the E/U
  • #135,046
  • May 18, 2015 4:18am May 18, 2015 4:18am
Quoting USD-Bear
might be looking for EU longs around the 11.750 level USDOLLAR D1: {image}
Wich index are you using for USDOLLAR? It's not the USDX
  • #135,047
  • May 18, 2015 4:36am May 18, 2015 4:36am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Wich index are you using for USDOLLAR? It's not the USDX

USDOLLAR is invented by FXCM

in its weighting it has not so much Euro as the UDX
  • #135,048
  • May 18, 2015 5:23am May 18, 2015 5:23am
Anyone here familiar with Mel Widner support and resistance and using it?
  • #135,049
  • May 18, 2015 5:28am May 18, 2015 5:28am
Looking for it....green numbers arent there yet, just a guess
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  • #135,050
  • Edited 6:15am May 18, 2015 5:57am | Edited 6:15am
Very interesting closing/opening weekly ranges across the board. We are going to get movers and shakers this week....Mid month quick update.

On the Fundamental side:

 

  1. Last week we completed the latest round of fresh US numbers with very disappointing consumer numbers (the only one that were holding in the macro US slowdown) but more importantly the very low inflation numbers settled the deal and will bring a long tale until next month FED.
  2. All FA cards on the table for the next few weeks with a final push from the FOMC minutes on Wednesday (not expected to be really important but just a confirmation of the softening in the US economy).

​On the Technical side: (in order on importance for the next leg)

  1. [Bonds] in their own party across the world and they are getting ready for the mid term swing on hikes. They are detach from the short term moves as they usually do before major mid term moves (bonds most of time if not always lead major moves by a mile!!!). However the rest of the board is pretty much flirting with short term swing legs across main markets until the FED next month
  2. [GOLD] and [Dollar] as usual leading the short term legs when rate expectations are in play. Both are in small intraday/daily breakouts after the last W roll for a test of at least 1300.xx and 91.5x .
  3. Both US and European Equites finding v. short term support they are ready for a new micro break to all time highs [ES] (in the US via no hikes expectation until Q1 2016) and to a test of highs in the Europe on good numbers [DAX].
  4. [Oil] is chopping around as expected just before the $63.xx, fundamentally can't find a reason (the only option is an OIL related FA trigger thats is beyond macro relations so not in my books yet) to rally but technically a break above will open a very fast in and out leg to complete a very yummy second part of the mid term knee-jerk reaction to $69/$72 area.
  5. [Euro] in imminent break after the W close, moving short term euro outlook from NEUTRAL to SOFT BUY with a swing play with FOMC minutes to a test 1.160x which was unlocked and on sight with a potential extension to 1.178x depending on the FED later

With a light calendar the rest of the european session in the euro 1.148x naked until NY open. A break above open momentum to the top side until reports on Wednesday... Nothing to do, same levels, same trades and same all.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,051
  • May 18, 2015 6:58am May 18, 2015 6:58am
[quote=sisse;8268418]Very interesting closing/opening weekly ranges across the board. We are going to get movers and shakers this week....Mid month quick update. On the Fundamental side: Last week we completed the latest round of fresh US numbers with very disappointing consumer numbers (the only one that were holding in the macro US slowdown) but more importantly the very low inflation numbers settled the deal and will bring a long tale until next month FED. All FA cards on the table for the next few weeks with a final push from the FOMC minutes on Wednesday (not expected to be really important but just a confirmation of the softening in the US economy).

Thank you Sisse for the update!

Just one question, why do you say Low Inflation Numbers?Do you mean the number of U.S. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations?
The number is actually back to Jan 2015 level, although not high, but cannot be percieved as low either.
The fact is although US data have been soft and mixed lately, some key numbers are actually picking up, such as initial jobless claims, inflation expectations, etc.
The story of US slowdown is there, but exaggerated in my opinion.
The current market is a bit like the mirror image of the beginning of March. Back then the aggressive selling of EU ignored signs of negative US data and positive EU data, but the selling eventually slowed down and only the blind herd were left chasing the "parity" story.
Right now, I see the signs of the EU rally slowing down together with signs of negative EU number (DE especially) and slightly positive US numbers later into the month. It most probably won't stop here, but it doesn't have too much life left. I will be waiting for the talks of US dollar weakness to spread to position my short EUs, of course unless the data tells me the opposite. If US & China slow down, European data cannot be too good too long. EURUSD is afterall a who is the less ugly sister story, isn't it?

What do you think? Am I off the mark?

Thank you!
  • #135,052
  • May 18, 2015 7:02am May 18, 2015 7:02am
Sisse
thanks for the detailed analysis
one question. you said "bonds most of time if not always lead major moves by a mile"
Do you expect the US Bond Yields to go up in advance of the hikes and do you think that such thing can be used to gauge the end of EUR/USD correction?
I recently looked at a graph, which showed good correlation between US 10 year bond yields and EUR/USD. However this means that when EUR/USD goes down (USD appreciates) the Bond yields will also go down. However in case of hikes, I would expect the Bond Yields to go up?
Could you please elaborate on this?
Thanks
  • #135,053
  • May 18, 2015 8:43am May 18, 2015 8:43am
Quoting Shunyi
... why do you say Low Inflation Numbers?Do you mean the number of U.S. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations? ...
No. I was referring to last week numbers.

Quoting jaxx80
Do you expect the US Bond Yields to go up in advance of the hikes and do you think that such thing can be used to gauge the end of EUR/USD correction?
Hikes will not only affect the dollar but will impact every single instrument across the board !!!!...

Quote
.....However in case of hikes, I would expect the Bond Yields to go up? Could you please elaborate on this? Thanks

You are going one step ahead of the current play. In general the impact will depend on the rates flow (gradual, "shock and awe" and big/small rises...etc). Will talk about that when later in future.

--------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- ---------------------------

Here we go for NY. Same 1.135x since last week key daily flip level. For the US session copy/paste since last week plays losing 1.135x in the opening range open a test 1.132x with max extension 1.128x but the swing is fading the lows to the other side to the 1.16xx handle with FOMC....

Choose your poison time next few sessions until the FOMC minutes for the swing...

GL all trading this week....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,054
  • May 18, 2015 10:01am May 18, 2015 10:01am
Quoting sisse
{quote} No. I was referring to last week numbers. {quote} Hikes will not only affect the dollar but will impact every single instrument across the board !!!!... {quote} You are going one step ahead of the current play. In general the impact will depend on the rates flow (gradual, "shock and awe" and big/small rises...etc). Will talk about that when later in future. --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- --------------------------- Here we go for...
Ah, I see. Sorry, my bad.
Anyway, my point is US data is mixed. EU data optimism might fade soon...I prefer to look for longer term short entries.
Just for the record...trading is sooooooooo hard!!!!!!!!!!!:nerd:

Good luck to ya Sisse!
  • #135,055
  • May 18, 2015 12:01pm May 18, 2015 12:01pm
Quoting sisse

  1. Both US and European Equites finding v. short term support they are ready for a new micro break to all time highs [ES] [check](in the US via no hikes expectation until Q1 2016) and to a test of highs in the Europe on good numbers [DAX][in play].

Quoting sisse
Here we go for NY. Same 1.135x since last week key daily flip level. For the US session copy/paste since last week plays losing 1.135x in the opening range open a test 1.132x with max extension 1.128x but the swing is fading the lows....
Euro failed to take 1.135x in the NY opening range and as expected euro went to bed in nothingness the rest of the session while US equities (ES)as widely expected to fresh all time highs flirting with a new daily break and DAX closing strong on the way up.

Day is pretty much over across the board with only the never ending noise from Greece as last minute mover (the real deal for trading was already settled last weeks ....). Same levels, trades and all in play for the rest of the session.

On Greece, wires and especially main mass media has been particularly NOISY today waiting/complaining for the final confirmation of the new arrangement. In my view, there is absolutely nothing to see marketwise in that front until the next round of repayments noise (June and especially the summer ones !!!).... After that, only a "miracle" (or a strong shift in the current government) in Greece will avoid "default" or whatever technicality they use then to avoid political contagion in the EU.

Greece is starting to move from a solvency problem alone to a liquidity problem and the Germans and IMF keep pushing for it. I don't recall any public or private case in which a double whammy has ended good ... will see ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,056
  • May 18, 2015 12:35pm May 18, 2015 12:35pm
Quoting sisse
​On the Technical side: (in order on importance for the next leg) [Bonds] in their own party across the world and they are getting ready for the mid term swing on hikes. They are detach from the short term moves as they usually do before major mid term moves (bonds most of time if not always lead major moves by a mile!!!). However the rest of the board is pretty much flirting with short term swing legs across main markets until the FED next month [GOLD] and [Dollar] as usual leading the short term legs when rate expectations...
Hi Sisse,

Here are my questions based on your post. Would appreciate your explaination when you have time.
1. "Bonds getting ready for mid term swing on hikes": hikes mean higher bond yields, lower prices. Right now bonds are already selling. Do you mean they have started the process earlier, and bigger selling is yet to come when hike is confirmed?

2. "The short term moves across asset classes": My understanding is a short term profit taking and positioning squeezing. Is this what you mean?

3. "Short term euro outlook soft buy": I understand that levels are unlocked at different stages with reasons. Will soft US data unlock the 1.2 level before next month FOMC? In your opinion, do you see possibility of further delay of rate hike to 2016?

As always, thank you Sisse!
  • #135,057
  • May 18, 2015 1:12pm May 18, 2015 1:12pm
Quoting Shunyi
... 1. "Bonds getting ready for mid term swing on hikes": hikes mean higher bond yields, lower prices. Right now bonds are already selling. Do you mean they have started the process earlier, and bigger selling is yet to come when hike is confirmed?
In general yes.

Quote
2. "The short term moves across asset classes": My understanding is a short term profit taking and positioning squeezing

Not really.... Squeeze was only in the euro and it is long gone when we broke 1.108x a couple of week ago....Nobody is getting squeeze at these levels.

Quote
Is this what you mean? 3. "Short term euro outlook soft buy": I understand that levels are unlocked at different stages with reasons. Will soft US data unlock the 1.2 level before next month FOMC? In your opinion, do you see possibility of further delay of rate hike to 2016? As always, thank you Sisse!

1.20xx is still locked and i don't think soft US data alone will unlock that. Only FED kicking the can to next year will do it. For now is very locked.

I hope it helps.

--------------------- --------------------- --------------------- --------------------- --------------------- --------------------- ---------------------

In the euro, lows finally tested on the closing session (1.132x), mini extension (1.128x) is now unlock and naked for the next few hours.... thats all what i needed for today in the euro ....

Tracking very closely 1.132x for the roll and European opening for reports ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #135,058
  • May 18, 2015 1:40pm May 18, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} In the euro, lows finally tested on the closing session (1.132x), mini extension (1.128x) is now unlock and naked for the next few hours...
So, would you be looking for long trades at these levels or lower? (i.e if you want to go long)
  • #135,059
  • May 18, 2015 2:36pm May 18, 2015 2:36pm
[quote=sisse;8269200]{quote} Not really.... Squeeze was only in the euro and it is long gone when we broke 1.108x a couple of week ago....Nobody is getting squeeze at these levels. {quote} 1.20xx is still locked and i don't think soft US data alone will unlock that. Only FED kicking the can to next year will do it. For now is very locked.

Thank you Sisse!

Just one more question
If nobody is squeezing EURUSD at these levels, then what is it? A USD weakness story? A USD profit taking situation? Or just some late bulls running the no man land?

I don't think FED will kick the can to next year. What's your view?

Thank you!
  • #135,060
  • May 18, 2015 3:24pm May 18, 2015 3:24pm
So the friday candle was a bearish hammer indeed... I'm curious how far down we're going because there will be a lot of news this week and I'm not sure if it's all going to be bad for the euro
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