Davit's Confluence Trading

GC is getting closer to 1.90 and I may go short on this beast.It could dive 300+pips in short time.

UC dived on 5min pattern like clockwork

BBKing one of the greats..

Little skeptical as well but with a bullish shallow retest and no real news next on the cards for early next week, I have 74 as possible target as well. If it hits that then more interested in shorting.

Hi Davit,

Some UC.

Hi Scott
That's a possibility and that's why I placed limit sell larger lot at 2080 just in case.
With continued red US numbers coming we could see USD going down lot further like 118 even 117
I'll continue take profit and sell the rallies unless something significant changes. I missed GC sell 8980! I had to go to work and move happened later in the day.
Funny thing is both GB and US much of job growth is based on part time service industry jobs that pays nothing.On paper our unemployment is down but real paying jobs are vanishing fast.US manufacturing is under performing compare to Canada and much of it ironically is due to cheap gas. We lost over 50k jobs in Oil and Steal industry and these are high paying jobs.Yes Obama looks good on paper but reality is not as rose as it seems.
Many analysts believe we could go prolong compressed none growth period lasting months.
Next few months Buying Canadian dollar is smart move
Regards bro

Sounds like a plan, missed some GC as well, posted on Chris's. I have nice potential buy at 118.

Why not sell south and ride up north What I love about the UC +swap, low ATR means you can build a very strong profitable positions even if 1/2 in dd without much risk.To be honest I would not mind if it goes to 2090 before plunging south.Love to get in on larger lot with better number.

There have been some requests about my indicators and template so here it is.

At the moment, it did go north. Like I said last week, I see a retest of 2100. Breakout of that would mean 2200 but in long term, I would see South movement more viable. Am having short term long with pending sell order at the top.
1st pending order at previous high, with few more up there.

Things on my radar
GC short from 8990+
EG hoping back to 72 for long however Greek crises could damage Euro severely so weary of buying the Euro now.
UJ still failing to break 120 and with soft US numbers its not gonna break much above 120 until significant data change.
UJ is in range and I am minority among traders that love range.Best money I make is in range market.
UJ is in 220pip range. Watching signals on RSI and PA.

UJ short 1971 1972
Price is very close to 786 Fib my favorite harmonic number.

Reached but I closed much earlier. Not totally convinced with the bear powers earlier today but it's okay. Better green than red.

Leave some space for breathing. You can add in more shorts later. This thing will retest 120 again I reckon.

good morning Lapozi
I agree on light positions on UJ. 2 positions I have at present are light but do have larger limit at 1.20 waiting.
I looked at your live trades and you are selling the EU.Just be mindful that should Greek bail out happen before june 4th Euro will shoot up high 1.15+
I think its in stalling level because of situation unresolved status.
Regards

Yes mate I have that in mind. I am planning to close them before NY close. Anyway, added your shorts on U/C already? That thing is booming upwards now. CAD$ seems weak at the moment.

I am planting shorts soon.

I didn't expect the EUR/USD and USD/CAD to be the major players but I think we're just seeing the USD sell-off being digested. There's a bit of a pullback in oil plus it's a holiday here in Canada which is probably softening the Loonie but I haven't seen any news to explain what was pulling on the Euro. Still, I don't think it's trend-changing in either case and I've got no USD-pair trades right now anyway. I've been waiting for this bounce in USD to complete in order to start shorting again. I think tomorrow will be a typical turnaround Tuesday so loading up on USD shorts tonight will probably be a good idea.

Scratch that -- the USD Index just hit 94 already and is coming back down now. Well, I'm going to bed so I guess I'll see what opportunities tonight brings. Maybe that was just stops being triggered and it will manage to power up to 94.30 or 94.50 before continuing down.

GBP/NZD has confirmed to my satisfaction it's broken out of the range of the past few months and should at least retest the recent highs so I'm happy to hold onto that long for the time being. My AUD/NZD long is in the green and is still inching higher towards its breakout. The EUR/AUD long I took last night on a pullback took a dip in the wrong direction this morning but I'm hopeful that will turn around when the Euro bulls resume their charge. Technically the EUR/AUD and AUD/NZD longs cancel each other out leaving me with an EUR/NZD long, but I'm tracking them separately.

I should have taken profit on gold when it hit $1,233 and reloaded lower (typically I would buy back in $10 lower than the high without even looking at a chart with good success) but I've been holding my gold long for so many months I've gotten complacent about taking profit despite my sitting there at my trading computer when it happened. It's already heading back up so there's no point dwelling on missed opportunities.

I'm off to bed. Enjoy the Victoria Day fireworks if you can.

UsdCad Short

120 reach as I suggested. Might go as high as 120.40. Am planting small lot of UJ short at current price with more shorts coming in.

Safe bet would be placing a short order there at 40. That's an area of price rejection (D1 chart)

It looks like the markets took the Queen's grandmother's birthday into consideration and postponed turnaround Tuesday until today. I must say I didn't care for that surprise release from the ECB. How can they justify private speeches where the participants are free to trade on the information provided they don't make the information public?

I dropped my AUD/NZD long, not because I've lost faith in it, but because I think the money can be put to better use shorting USD (pending FOMC release later) and there's no significant Aussie or Kiwi event risk on the table left this week to act as a directional catalyst. I'll get back in once something actually happens.

I held my EUR/AUD, GBP/NZD, and gold longs without adding to them despite the pullbacks. It seems I've gotten so used to trading weekly/monthly that I've developed too much of a laissez faire trading style that, though far less stressful, is significantly less profitable. I can remember when the old me would have panic sold and panic bought and lost money both ways, so I don't miss that, but the pendulum seems to have swung too far in the other direction now.

Full disclosure, I was playing Tropico 4 and watching movies and didn't feel like entering trades despite having my trading software loaded and charts up on one of my monitors down here as well as in the living room. Well, at least GBP/NZD has returned back to yesterday's high. The old me would have said I'll need to make that up which is a terrible trading mentality. I made so many mistakes when I started trading it's a wonder I still have any money, but I wrote down each trading mistake and I still keep the paper right here in front of me as a reminder of what not to do.

EUR/GBP is testing the shoulder of a head-and-shoulders so I'm holding off until it chooses a direction. The weekly and particularly the monthly chart have me favouring further downside now that it failed to make any progress after giving us that second shot at 0.7150. A head-and-shoulders or double-top would target roughly 0.675 which is just shy of the 127% extension of the full decline that started last November, and I'm a big fan of 127% extensions.

Oil retested support and applying your system points to continuation up, so that should put some drive behind the Loonie, though I've got no CAD positions at the moment. I've got no Yen positions either. [Edit: Yen lack of motility at the moment makes it undesirable for my trading style. Until the Bank of Japan gives it some new direction I will avoid it for the most part.]

I'm liking the signals pretty much across the board for shorting USD. [Edit: I was liking the signals for my current and planned positions, not new positions.] The USD Index obviously shot past my targets, but I looking at an Index I've applied your system to and had drawn a Fibonacci that describes a 127% extension and a pullback to the 76.4% which coincides with the centre Bollinger band. I need to remember to check all my charts in the future. I should add that to my trading rules page right now, actually. The descending parallel channel is tentative pending confirmation of resistance.

Most USD pairs, however, are not [edit] at an attractive level in price and/or RSI, but of course USD direction largely depends on what the FOMC has to say this afternoon and whether or not the markets believe any of it, so I'll hold off on taking any new positions for the time being. Still, I do like my 76.4% pullbacks after a 127% extension...


USD Index (European) daily



Addendum: After giving it a try for a year, I think it's time to retire the ZigZag. It looks like it should be useful, but only in hindsight -- I've yet to find it provides any predictive indication. It's not even particularly good for wave counting.

Here's a couple of charts that support my negative view on Euro/Pound if 0.7125 fails to hold. Note the 76.4% on the daily chart approximately represents the neckline of the head and shoulders. Initial target if 0.1725 fails to hold being the 100% daily retracement to 0.7015. If that fails, the ultimate target is 0.6565 100% monthly retracement, though such long term targets have too many potential fundamental shifts to predict that far out.


EUR.GBP daily - Davit system, Fibonacci, and head-and-shoulders



EUR.GBP monthly - Fibonacci and RSI