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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,981
  • May 14, 2015 1:28pm May 14, 2015 1:28pm
Market looks so "al dente" for Major mid term moves across the board that is actually scary.

However, intraday we keep squeezing every inch left of the current moves. US Equities in full control today with bastards flirting to push to all time highs again in equities (...amazing how the bastards push and squeeze the FED to the ultimate crumb even with the weakest numbers in all fronts in the last 4 years) while all main markets keep barely holding but holding at the end the last legs.

We are one failure away to trigger the domino across the board. Whoever blinks first, the rest will follow. I am personally aiming at Dollar as the first one to trigger any time soon until the M close.

For now nothing new, in the euro 1.135x held as expected but bulls are starting to cough a lot at the highs. Tracking 1.138x for the roll and not much room for anything there so same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,982
  • May 14, 2015 1:58pm May 14, 2015 1:58pm
Quoting chester123

Quoting sisse
Euro testing 1.135x with Draghi on the wires. Crunching time for bulls with the London fix ... Fill or kill for the rest of the session. sisse
{quote} Can you explain what for you means the "Fill or kill" tem? Thank in advance
A Fill or Kill (FOK) is a kind of order (in forex it doesn't exist as such but in other centralized markets it does) for very large positions that require to be filled ALL/IMMEDIATELY AT THIS LEVEL, otherwise cancel all...

I was paraphrasing "Fill or Kill" in the last post in the sense that that level (1.135x) must "FILL EVERYBODY" quickly and "RIGHT NOW" otherwise the level (and or positions at that level from before) would be killed ...meaning that was no more room for anything below a quick in and out of that area....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,983
  • May 14, 2015 2:25pm May 14, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}{quote} A Fill or Kill (FOK) is a kind of order (in forex it doesn't exist as such but in other centralized markets it does) for very large positions that require to be filled ALL/IMMEDIATELY AT THIS LEVEL, otherwise cancel all... I was paraphrasing "Fill or Kill" in the last post in the sense that that level (1.135x) must "FILL EVERYBODY" quickly and "RIGHT NOW" otherwise the level (and or positions at that level from before) would be killed ...meaning that was no more room for anything below a quick in and out of that area.... sisse
SocGen analysts said "the spring
cleaning of crowded bond and FX positions continues. Soft US data has dented but
not exterminated selling in bonds. It also supports a further unwind of long
dollar trades: positioning suggests there is still room for EUR/USD to squeeze
higher. Soft data, finally, is easing Fed fears, helping equity and credit
markets prove resilient to the bond storm. A Fed-driven Treasury selloff, on
better US data, would become a far greater risk for global equities."

Sisse, if it is not too much trouble, I was wondering if you could say a few words on how to identify large positionings in a chart. Like the highlighted sentence.

Thank you!
  • #134,984
  • May 14, 2015 2:49pm May 14, 2015 2:49pm
Quoting sisse
Market looks so "al dente" for Major mid term moves across the board that is actually scary. However, intraday we keep squeezing every inch left of the current moves. US Equities in full control today with bastards flirting to push to all time highs again in equities (...amazing how the bastards push and squeeze the FED to the ultimate crumb even with the weakest numbers in all fronts in the last 4 years) while all main markets keep barely holding but holding at the end the last legs. We are one failure away to trigger the domino across the board....
Master Sisse,
I hope what you mean in your post is continued USD weakness.
All the charts are aligned for continuation- I use Yearly pivots (I showed some recent examples in my last posts)
i am ridng this wave of USD weakness which has been superb. ( post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post8260867 btw sorry for that idiotic post I was a bit boozed )

Take a look how the below charts are all set for the final (or not) exhaustion move to test the YEARLY PIVOTS.
One of the most interesting pairs IMO is the USDCAD which
i. has more "meat" than other pairs - more distance to the Pivot
ii. it is one of the few pairs which has not touched its Yearly Pivot last year, making it even more ripe for the move.

Thanks again Sisse for all your contribution.
I have had the most amazing 2 months trading ,a big part of my success is your brilliant analysis which "syncs" me sometimes when I am a bit off .


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  • #134,985
  • May 14, 2015 3:41pm May 14, 2015 3:41pm
Very strong closes across the board after those superlative important news from the inflation front in the US. Markets flirting to tempt the FED to delay even further September hikes to Q1 2016, preempting the next FOMC and especially betting in a slow down of the US economy for the spring too.

Euro in tone with the markets too. A roll at these levels is very bullish and a W roll above the 1.14xx handle will pretty much SET the low of this month. For now until the NY session is nothing new. The only numbers that have held positively & steady in the US is consumer confidence. A bad number there and we will see some serious fireworks across the board betting on FED delaying hikes even further ...

Quoting Shunyi
was wondering if you could say a few words on how to identify large positionings in a chart.
Very easy and simple. Open your weekly and/or monthly charts... DONT peak at anything below. There you have it ...

Quoting PIP Lover
...Thanks again Sisse for all your contribution. I have had the most amazing 2 months trading ,a big part of my success is your brilliant analysis which "syncs" me sometimes when I am a bit off . {image}
​I am very flatter my posts has helped some traders. I am also happy that it has triggered some interesting questions via PM and posts in this thread instead of just the random giggling and dick swinging of the other thread....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,986
  • Edited May 15, 2015 1:20am May 14, 2015 5:07pm | Edited May 15, 2015 1:20am
Quoting sisse
Very strong closes across the board after those superlative important news from the inflation front in the US. Markets flirting to tempt the FED to delay even further September hikes to Q1 2016, preempting the next FOMC and especially betting in a slow down of the US economy for the spring too.
Hello Sisse, a question: as you "say" we can see that the markets are pricing in an increasing probability of a later rate hike than in september given the recent macro numbers (correct me if you see it differently). However, may there be a situation when the US macro activity remains fairly low but the FED remains hawkish when it comes to september hikes? Maybe just due to the fact of "system instability" caused by this unprecedent-ly long period of low interest rate. Would you say that scenario is possible and if yes what would be the impact if the FEDs intention and market expectations have too of a big gap between each other?

Plus this time desynchronization of FEDs intention and market expectation in case of hiking rates - may that actually be also the case of the delay? I mean... the CB has to predict what the effect of the interest rate hike is on the markets and if the markets are not ready it can cause the delay of the policymakers (FED) decision by itself due to possible market distortions given the time non-harmonization in expectations and reality, right? E.G. as you said - the equities almost making ATH today. So the point would be - markets (mostly equities but also USD) just time-delaying their predictions (and pricing it in) of rate hikes just to actually "force the FED" to really hike later so they can enjoy cheap credit but they will turn to be wrong as FED remains hawkish for september. Haha, and now whos gonna stand their ground

Anyways, may be too unclear text but if you have some thoughts on this, I would appreciate that (and I bet a let of others too)

Plus a more noob question: I say "a W roll above the 1.14xx handle will pretty much SET the low of this month". How do you set your W and M lows/highs? I mean, I see monhly low as the low point of the recent mothly cande

Thank you.
  • #134,987
  • May 14, 2015 5:17pm May 14, 2015 5:17pm
Quoting sisse
Very strong closes across the board after those superlative important news from the inflation front in the US. Markets flirting to tempt the FED to delay even further September hikes to Q1 2016, preempting the next FOMC and especially betting in a slow down of the US economy for the spring too. Euro in tone with the markets too. A roll at these levels is very bullish and a W roll above the 1.14xx handle will pretty much SET the low of this month. For now until the NY session is nothing new. The only numbers that have held positively & steady in...
do you suggest that 1.153x won't hold as a potential reversal level , market players speculating against FED on further hikes delay would make the leg up through some very important levels more viable... 1.19xx would be an immediate swing target if such condition fills ... the weekly close above 1.122x is alarming , let alone 1.14xx !

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,988
  • May 14, 2015 7:51pm May 14, 2015 7:51pm
A little fun with the Fibs...

Check the M1 on GBPAUD and AUDUSD.

What you will have to appreciate is the 23.6, 161.8 and the clock.

If you are looking for an excuse to watch correlation and the fibs...I've got it here for ya!

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,989
  • May 14, 2015 8:18pm May 14, 2015 8:18pm
Just a little follow up...

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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,990
  • Edited 9:47pm May 14, 2015 9:06pm | Edited 9:47pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} UJ been well bid around 118.8x through 118.6x since weeks , its where I would build longs for sure .. hoom
that said, I also can argue for some decent resistance now at 119.64...

ps, 119.89 is also a spot I might look for shorts, but it being friday, I'm not at all interested in establishing new positions....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,991
  • May 14, 2015 9:41pm May 14, 2015 9:41pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I have 1423 too but the mofo and ADR (1473 for an up day) says it's going to at least 1480. 1420 is the ADR IF it's a split day (starts up and then reverses.) This fib has been very well-behaved - respecting all the levels. {image}
I've played with ADR a tad, but to be honest, I havent been able to make it work consistently. I'm still short from 1.1423, trying for someting near 1.1316 or so today, risking new swing highs...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,992
  • May 14, 2015 10:05pm May 14, 2015 10:05pm
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} that said, I also can argue for some decent resistance now at 119.64... ps, 119.89 is also a spot I might look for shorts, but it being friday, I'm not at all interested in establishing new positions....
Currently 119.38 is already forming strong resistance to go further up..
with weak usd data in play, I doubt it could reach 119.89...
  • #134,993
  • May 14, 2015 10:51pm May 14, 2015 10:51pm
EU targeting much higher. Roughly double were it is now and current top
Friday is a wtf day
  • #134,994
  • May 14, 2015 11:43pm May 14, 2015 11:43pm
  •  flx
  • | Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Avoid Death by a Thousand Stops | 86 Posts
Quoting Pharm0r
EU targeting much higher. Roughly double were it is now and current top Friday is a wtf day
Why do you say that? Fibo 38,2% retrace from 1,399-1,0455?
What goes around comes around
  • #134,995
  • May 15, 2015 12:26am May 15, 2015 12:26am
Quoting fx-anew
{quote} Currently 119.38 is already forming strong resistance to go further up.. with weak usd data in play, I doubt it could reach 119.89...
I think you should give it some more room. My feelings are mixed with the yen right now. One could easily find arguments for longs and shorts, best to play the edges I guess. In fact 120.04 is prolly the best spot for shorts over the next few sessions. I'll make a final decision based on where some of the other pairs are trading. But again, think I'll wait till next week.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,996
  • May 15, 2015 12:36am May 15, 2015 12:36am
Must read: Marc Faber Macro Views and Investments. US Bonds, Currencies and Gold Miners
  • #134,997
  • Edited 3:38am May 15, 2015 3:22am | Edited 3:38am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I've played with ADR a tad, but to be honest, I haven't been able to make it work consistently. I'm still short from 1.1423, trying for someting near 1.1316 or so today, risking new swing highs...
This post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...70#post8261670 calling 1440 as an intermediate stopping place for the upswing yesterday morning was based on the ADR. If you get one that shows 25/50/75% of the ADR (calced from the day's high or low ) and watch it daily it can give you a lot of interesting info. (Like for example, if the previous day was a block buster and you think you are in an area where momentum should be slowing, you might expect to see only 75%, and a lot of times that's exactly what you'll see. Or if you start seeing the down days make it to only 75% and the up days to 100% or more like I posted here on April 16th http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post8209287 it tells you something -or vice versa of course)

I'm still expecting it to go to at least 1480 based on how that fib I keep posting is acting, because it's been so well behaved. Maybe not today though - on the lookout for the usual freaky Friday profit taking today.

edit: p.s congrats on your short. For the life of me I can't make myself hold that second half if it goes into drawdown. Which gets me stopped out by a pip or two on trades that would have been great time after time.
  • #134,998
  • May 15, 2015 3:29am May 15, 2015 3:29am
Quoting chester123
{quote}.....system instability" caused by this unprecedent-ly long period of low interest rate. Would you say that scenario is possible
YES.

Quote
and if yes what would be the impact if the FEDs intention and market expectations have too of a big gap between each other? Plus this time desynchronization of FEDs intention and market expectation in case of hiking rates - may that actually be also the case of the delay?

Yes.

Quote
I mean... the CB has to predict what the effect of the interest rate hike is on the markets and if the markets are not ready it can cause the delay of the policymakers (FED) decision by itself due to possible market distortions given the time non-harmonization in expectations and reality, right?

The main issue and the critical one is RATEs and the FED decisions (any CB) are about the ECONOMY not about the markets.

Bastards (in the markets) will always want and push for UNLIMITED free money and 0 interest rates for ever and ever. They are all making an easy killer in equities. Even the sluggisht amateur Fund Manager would have make money in the last couple of years in equites ...

In simple words, one thing is what the ECONOMY NEED and another is what the MARKETS PRESSURE for simple self-interest and easy profit making...


Quoting hoom
{quote} do you suggest that 1.153x won't hold as a potential reversal level , market players speculating against FED on further hikes delay would make the leg up through some very important levels more viable... 1.19xx would be an immediate swing target if such condition fills ... the weekly close above 1.122x is alarming , let alone 1.14xx ! hoom.
No I am not suggesting that. The mid term (weeks to months) swing is in that area period. That we can have a barely visible 'wick' above made on shorter term expectations: yes. In simple words the l.15xx handle is about the mid term swing any small overshoot above is just noise in that mid term context.

On the short swing (days to weeks). Agree on 1.14xx as key. In my view, 1.19xx is still way out of range and very locked for now. Let the markets have the final saying in the current move in the 1.14xx handle first before.

-------------------------------------- -------------------------------------- --------------------------------------

As expected pure tiny choppy range for the Asian session and European opening range. The ones that settle the key W roll comes from the reports later and NY. For now, simple and clean map for the rest of the session. Micro 1.137x holding for running soft stops at the highs. To the other side nothing see until NY ...basically same levels, same trades, same all....

GL all today.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,999
  • May 15, 2015 3:47am May 15, 2015 3:47am
Quoting sisse
{quote} As expected pure tiny choppy range for the Asian session and European opening range. The ones that settle the key W roll comes from the reports later and NY. For now, simple and clean map for the rest of the session. Micro 1.137x holding for running soft stops at the highs. To the other side nothing see until NY ...basically same levels, same trades, same all.... GL all today. sisse
The past few 4H candles indicate that the bulls are losing control. I was very very tempted to put a sell order at 1.142, but then again, I have finally decided to wait for data this afternoon.
In the meanwhile, have you noticed the recovery of German bund? Do you think the selling has found its short term bottom? I don't plan to trade it, just looking for implications on EU.

Thank you!
  • #135,000
  • May 15, 2015 4:17am May 15, 2015 4:17am
Quoting sisse
{quote} YES. {quote} Yes. {quote} The main issue and the critical one is RATEs and the FED decisions (any CB) are about the ECONOMY not about the markets. Bastards (in the markets) will always want and push for UNLIMITED free money and 0 interest rates for ever and ever. They are all making an easy killer in equities. Even the sluggisht amateur Fund Manager would have make money in the last couple of years in equites ... In simple words, one thing is what the ECONOMY NEED and another is what the MARKETS PRESSURE for simple...

Hi Sisse,

I think, above red marked statement of yours is not true nowadays.

All the FED seems to have cared about is the market (stock market) over the past several years.

Traces of that can be seen everywhere. Do you remember the Plunge Protection Team?

Do you remember that Citadel is the FED's own hedge fund?

Do you remember, that some CB's are actively trading stocks for some time?

Remember what Bernanke once said about the stock market?


No disrespect here, but your statement is not true. It should be true, but sadly, it is not any longer.......
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