Attachments: vsa with Malcolm

vsa with Malcolm

#26,761
Edited 1:54pm May 8, 2015 1:31pm | Edited 1:54pm

rbumbalough
| Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Trader | 286 Posts

My lunch time scalp in EU; I've seen this pattern many times in weakening FX pairs. I don't have a name for it, and it doesn't match any of the setups in Holmes' VSA trade setups book, but when it shows up rate usually comes off. Bar just prior to the WRB-ETMD was a hidden upthrust and there's weakness in the background, so the bias is to the short side for a bit.

After the latest big ECB/IMF/EU vs Greece pow-wow to save the Euro, rate will get some love and the primary dealers will walk it up and squeeze some shorts. Although it seems unlikely to me that any big funds or major players are still mega short EU.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: EURUSDM3.png
Size: 44 KB

#26,762
May 8, 2015 1:50pm May 8, 2015 1:50pm

hieronymus
Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Trader | 542 Posts

Quoting rbumbalough

Disliked

My lunch time scalp in EU; I've seen this pattern many times in weakening FX pairs. I don't have a name for it, and it doesn't match any of the setups in Holmes' VSA trade setups book, but when it shows up rate usually comes off. {image}

Ignored

Was a very nice short, nice trade. I saw it setting up because I rode it up to there, didn't take it though. You can see the UHV spike on 1m chart as well for confirmation.
1m,3m,5m

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Image1.png
Size: 113 KB

Edit: I see this wasn't even your trade haha, informative nonetheless. Yours was an even trickier trade.
Edit: Most of my charts share drawings, so a zone that you see on it may not match exactly, because its from a different chart not shown etc.

#26,763
May 9, 2015 5:29am May 9, 2015 5:29am

KinsaleForex
Joined Oct 2010 | Status: Looking at a few more charts... | 1,195 Posts

Quoting hieronymus

Disliked

{quote} I usually get much worse when I change my style or learn something new and try to add it as well, but I usually stick with it and obsess over it and in the end I'm a better trader. I try trading the M6E when I do that kind of stuff though, or just SIM. Glad your back in the black, I like your charts even though I've never used PnF. I believe it's rather akin to the Kagi though isn't it? I use them regularly.

Ignored

Yeah I believe Kagi is quite similar but i've never used them so don't know the ins and outs of them. Friday was a woeful end to one of the worst weeks i've had. So taking some time to chill out for the weekend and back to it on Monday!

#26,764
May 13, 2015 10:04am May 13, 2015 10:04am

Alcibiade
| Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 73 Posts

Hi everybody!
First, thank you for the wonderful thread, it's good to see so many people helping each other! I've been learning VSA (intensively) these past weeks, and I'm a firm believer. Of course I'm no good at it lol.
I've read the books and some 500 pages of thread... and I have a question.

If I were to trade H1-H4, and didn't want to have to care about the news at all, what pairs would give me the best VSA signals?

I'm watching too many pairs right now, too many timeframes, and getting confused.
H4 would be ideal with the (swing) way I like to trade ; I usually watch H1 during the day, but would feel better if I didn't have to refine entries on 5-15mn charts.
I live in France but I'm never up for London open lol. I'm up long before NY though (congrats me).
Anyway... economic news kill my joy in life... I like to trade solely on the charts, and I feel like VSA will help me do that (with s/r and price action). This news thing has started to make me hate USD. Like today for example.

So... what do you guys think? What pair gives the clearer VSA signals on H1 and H4 (and daily)?

#26,765
May 13, 2015 3:45pm May 13, 2015 3:45pm

hieronymus
Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Trader | 542 Posts

A little absorption volume on news day. Tests after UHV showing strength, not just sideways market. Is it REAL absorption? I don't know or care I only trade intraday, and it is intraday absorption. Blue zones are S & D. 15m shows them better.
3m

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Image1.png
Size: 122 KB

15m

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Image2.png
Size: 54 KB

#26,766
May 13, 2015 3:53pm May 13, 2015 3:53pm

hieronymus
Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Trader | 542 Posts

Quoting Alcibiade

Disliked

Hi everybody! First, thank you for the wonderful thread, it's good to see so many people helping each other! I've been learning VSA (intensively) these past weeks, and I'm a firm believer. Of course I'm no good at it lol. I've read the books and some 500 pages of thread... and I have a question. If I were to trade H1-H4, and didn't want to have to care about the news at all, what pairs would give me the best VSA signals? I'm watching too many pairs right now, too many timeframes, and getting confused. H4 would be ideal with the (swing) way I like...

Ignored

I'd like to help, but I don't trade higher tf's. Only thing I'd say is stick to two pairs at most, at least while you're learning. I only look at one pair and now I have a symbiotic relationship with it : ) Also, when I started out I bought ForexTester and used it a ton. I didn't pay attention to historical news at all, so maybe that's a route you can take (it's not free, and accurate volume data costs extra). Probably the best training aid I found, and you can get the feel of completely ignoring news with it : ). A side note, you're dealing in economy's and there is always news, for every economy, don't think you can get around it.

#26,767
May 13, 2015 6:31pm May 13, 2015 6:31pm

HiddenGap
Joined Aug 2009 | Status: Reading the TAPE | 2,389 Posts

Quoting Alcibiade

Disliked

.....So... what do you guys think? What pair gives the clearer VSA signals on H1 and H4 (and daily)?

Ignored

While I am not sure what you mean by "clearer" VSA signals, almost all traders would benefit from sticking only to the Majors. And in particular the pairs where the US Dollar is a component. So, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. Forget about exotics and crosses (pairs where the USD in not a component) save maybe EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY.

Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.

#26,768
May 14, 2015 5:00am May 14, 2015 5:00am

SimpleDev
Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Retired | 575 Posts

Quoting HiddenGap

Disliked

{quote} The fact that the next bar is UP, means that the Trap Up Move did not confirm. An unconfirmed sign of weakness is a defacto sign of strength. {image}

Ignored

Excuse me Professor Gap,

IMO your lessons on confirmation bars are one of the most important things taught on this thread, and probably the least emphasized. Perhaps in the future you could throw some reminders at us?

Just a quick chart on gold futures on the left chart. 2 bar reversals are very significant signals and since it failed I threw up a trade. On the right chart for oil futures there is confirmed stopping volume and a confirmed test before that nice up move occurred.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Untitled.png
Size: 155 KB

#26,769
May 14, 2015 9:16am May 14, 2015 9:16am

pres78
Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts

Quoting vietbach

Disliked

Hi all, i want to ask: this is Gold i see bar ND, why the market does not go down? please help, Thanks {image}

Ignored

ND is in an uptrend
ND is after climatic volume which showed buyers (after spiking the high from yesterday removing sellers)... Range traders would have sold that high which SM could buy into. Break out traders would have bought the "break out" and would have been promptly stopped out.
Low of ND never taken out
3 bars after ND is a NS / NSP right into 50% of the climax bar
When we see basing of PA right below a level like that many times it signals a pending break

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!

#26,770
May 14, 2015 9:37am May 14, 2015 9:37am

SimpleDev
Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Retired | 575 Posts

Quoting vietbach

Disliked

Hi all, i want to ask: this is Gold i see bar ND, why the market does not go down? please help, Thanks {image}

Ignored

Been an awesome day for Gold.

Bar 1: Massive wide spread and volume. This looks like huge amounts of selling comes in with the tail at the top.
Bar 2: Down bar after climatic volume. I shorted the close of this bar.
Bar 3: This bar immediately stops out my short.
Bar 4: Another up bar, here I asked myself, if bar 1 is so weak why am I seeing UP bars? I went long on the close of bar 4.
Bar 5: Is your ND, its level close for me so no ND.
Bar 6: Is the next bar after your ND, it does not confirm the ND. Bar 6 in itself looks weak with the next bar down confirming it.
Bar 7: small-ish spread, and tiny volume, lowest volume in the last 11 bars. This bar should stick out as much as Bar 1 does, the next bar closes up confirming this bar.

In a nut shell after Bar 1, we starting seeing a lot of up bars and the down bars we did see were on low volume.
Think Effort vs Result.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Untitled.png
Size: 176 KB

#26,771
May 14, 2015 9:53am May 14, 2015 9:53am

SimpleDev
Joined Apr 2010 | Status: Retired | 575 Posts

This is the last one..

1: Stopping volume, next bar closes down confirming.
2: 2 bar reversal
3: Confirmation bar of the 2 bar, but it looks like a test. Probably good to stay out of a position.
4: Not a strong reaction to the test, next bar closes down. Not a bad place to go short, no position for me though, I am done for the day.
5: Another ND but hasnt been confirmed yet.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Untitled.png
Size: 212 KB

#26,772
May 14, 2015 10:22am May 14, 2015 10:22am

pres78
Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts

Still 5 hours and 40 minutes till NY close but I am keeping a close eye on the USD pairs and will continue to do so until the close today. The afternoon could change things but we appear to be setting up for some USD strength accross the board at least for tommorow and possibly to start next week (Friday bars will give more clues for what's to possibly be on deck for next week). Will be interesting to see where things sit at the end of the day.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!

#26,773
Edited 2:37pm May 14, 2015 1:12pm | Edited 2:37pm

hieronymus
Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Trader | 542 Posts

Quoting vietbach

Disliked

Hi all, i want to ask: this is Gold i see bar ND, why the market does not go down? please help, Thanks {image}

Ignored

Everyone posted good reasons, especially if you pay attention to trend, its not a downtrend, so you would give ND much less credit. I don't think in terms of longer trend so much but still see it's not a ND. After a wide up bar I never would consider looking for a ND right away. I'd be looking for a test of supply or a failed test/inverted hammer, or a failed supply test. The body size is more important to me than wicks and the size of the wide spread up candle body is bigger than x number of candles... I stopped counting at twelve. You've just seen strength and then a test of sorts, then this ND-like candle, which has no volume to be an upthrust and I would call it an inverted hammer (misplaced) some other's may call it a failed test or a failed ND by next candle not being a down candle. The candle after the wide up bar is the key really. It tested right away, and had an inverted hammer, still closing higher than test as a result. Volume and position and shape of the candle and background start meaning a lot more on low volume candles once you've mastered the basics, not candle color. A test vs a ND or NS is an important point to master. Context, background, and result help figure it all out. This is all just from looking at 5m, and some of the best and the best on this forum here do stick to just a few timeframes, but I would dissect this with 3 and 1 minute timeframe. I did, and it's after the fact so it doesn't matter as much but I see strength, 3m showed IH to spring/hammer, 1m bullish hammer to IH, at low of WRB. And the 5 minute ND like candle on your chart in one minute shows a perfect NS right where you'd like to see one, at the top of closed gap zone. This may all just be more confusing, sorry if it is.

#26,774
May 14, 2015 3:15pm May 14, 2015 3:15pm

Alcibiade
| Joined May 2015 | Status: Trader | 73 Posts

Thanks for the answers guys!

Especially you, Hiddengap, as I must admit that the first thing that really brought me to VSA was the sheer beauty of your blue-purpleish screenshots of back in the day, I saw one I don't remember where, and thought now this guys has taste haha. I then had to read the entire "trade using vsa" thread. If I'm rich one day, I'll have a swimming pool of this particular color, and some furniture with your volume indicator colors. It will be glorious.

#26,775
May 16, 2015 3:33pm May 16, 2015 3:33pm

hieronymus
Joined Apr 2015 | Status: Trader | 542 Posts

A sort of chart update to the absorption volume post I made on the 13th.
60m, to be able to fit it all in my screen, I'm on my laptop and not my trading system.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Click to Enlarge

Name: Screenshot1.png
Size: 45 KB

#26,776
May 19, 2015 4:35pm May 19, 2015 4:35pm

pres78
Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts

Quoting pres78

Disliked

Still 5 hours and 40 minutes till NY close but I am keeping a close eye on the USD pairs and will continue to do so until the close today. The afternoon could change things but we appear to be setting up for some USD strength accross the board at least for tommorow and possibly to start next week (Friday bars will give more clues for what's to possibly be on deck for next week). Will be interesting to see where things sit at the end of the day.

Ignored

This all played out nicely end of last week and the start of this week. I hope others made some $ off the USD strength. It was well due as many pairs were in need of these retraces for new position building.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!

#26,777
May 19, 2015 10:16pm May 19, 2015 10:16pm

Exciter135
| Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Trader | 391 Posts

Quoting pres78

Disliked

{quote} This all played out nicely end of last week and the start of this week. I hope others made some $ off the USD strength. It was well due as many pairs were in need of these retraces for new position building.

Ignored

Hello pres78,
I paid great attention to your these posts. Could you share or provide hints here that if VSA/(your VZA - sorry for this) is relevant to your this bias? Thank you for your posts and hope you drop some lines on this.

Exciter135.

#26,778
Edited 1:44am May 20, 2015 12:00am | Edited 1:44am

classix
| Joined Jan 2014 | Status: Trader | 158 Posts

Quoting pres78

Disliked

{quote} This all played out nicely end of last week and the start of this week. I hope others made some $ off the USD strength. It was well due as many pairs were in need of these retraces for new position building.

Ignored

Sir Just quoted your old post and it was for me specially (i read it again and again still reading) thanks from this i grow up a lot. some questions that were not in mind that time but now they are.
how much increased (HV-UHV) activity we should look for continuation in the same direction currently market in or for changing direction.
Every increased activity contain buyers or sellers. how to differ in herd Buying/Selling and SM Buying/Selling I mean Absorption of buy/sell orders by SM because these happen on WHERE (S/R, S/D, Zones) and SM are aware of that and can see orders and jumping in outsiders. If they look weak buyers at support why they not sell more in little rally. we as a herd or weak holders don't think about whom we are buying from or selling to who is on the other side. knowing something or thinking and put this into real trade is hard..need your help.
for me now i mostly taking low volume reactions to High Volume for long or short like polar bear in Hawaii for long and as soon as volume increase on up bars i start to look for exit or tight sl..because other side is active.. my current charts
How you see Clear signs of buying or selling (SM) i mean any kind of Sequential setup you have or something other.. please share some chart examples if you can.
thanks in Advance.
Long Live Pres78

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)