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vsa with Malcolm

  • #26,601
  • Edited 7:44pm Apr 16, 2015 6:45pm | Edited 7:44pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} Just to give my 2 cents as well, I was doing something the same thing at the end of last year and completely ignoring the MA even though it was on my chart. Pres said the same to me that he has said to you. Once I started paying attention and going long above it, short below. It made a huge difference to my trading and completed another step on the way to what is my strategy. So for now, i'd recommend doing the same. Yes you might miss moves but you might be surprised how well it sticks to it. I took a short trade today, entry below the...

Excuse the random post, I would like to start threads and a journal and need a few posts first.


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We opened at Friday POC of N.Y. for London in value. Straight shot up to Friday POC for London. I take high probability trades at high probability points in
the moment, not because I'm impatient, it's all just probabilities and I don't care what the outcome is.
I have a hyper aggressive style, ruled by VSA, WSB, and MP (Master the Markets, Markets in Profile, (The Poker Mindset &Theory of Poker) Trading in the Zone)) , I use the 21 SMA as reference only and take trades more aggressively according to it, but never let it stop me from getting in when I see a signal. Not for the faint of heart. Don't miss nearly as many moves, but do get run over occasionally.
There is a regular 5 min chart (the bottom left one) still showing a perfect entry, ND on the SMA, for 'early adopter' entry. Also note the 5m candle patterns at the top where innovator trade was taken, fake UT (called that for short, obviously it could be profit taking, stop hunt etc), Hang man, Doji, to real UT. I'd take the 5m ND if I missed the innovative trade, perfect entry after weakness from UT. My entry's are rather good but I exit way too early, must work on that. I like what HG does with exiting after WSB etc, going to try and incorporate that.
Hope the image posts, I can't see it in preview.

Once I can post I'll have a journal so I don't have to Monday morning quarterback : )
  • #26,602
  • Apr 16, 2015 7:35pm Apr 16, 2015 7:35pm
Quoting rbumbalough
I made an error and got stopped out for -2%. Got short on my confirmation bias fallacy at the indicated point on Monday. There was no good reason to open a short trade at that time. The fault is entirely mine due to improper trading psychology. I failed to study the background and apply conservative VSA setup principles. This is a problem with me so I'll be working on a set of protocols to correct that bad habit prior to the next trade. This post is part of my trade plan's protocol for enhancing accountability for my trade decisions. Prior to pulling...
The 5m entry, moved to BE for N.Y open. Aggressive entry on close of IH. Double bottom, not truly bullish vol yet though. Thought it would only go test first WSB of London session and took profit early.
5m chart
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TPO, expanded London
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  • #26,603
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:34am Apr 17, 2015 8:34am
Inverted Hammers?
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"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,604
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:56am Apr 17, 2015 8:56am
Haha I love that pic, that should be the avatar. The IH is my best friend, used to be not so nice.
  • #26,605
  • Edited 12:43pm Apr 17, 2015 10:54am | Edited 12:43pm
GBPJPY respecting the 1hr UHV zones. If you know the high % where's, entering with VSA becomes much simpler. Trading the reactions to the previous UHV zones works. It did when I started sharing it here and it still does today several years later. Having a reason to pull the trigger changed my trading forever.

Volume at volume! Don't get caught hanging out with the herd.

Today is giving a new UHV zone for trading into next week.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,606
  • Apr 17, 2015 3:03pm Apr 17, 2015 3:03pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote}Bill Williams once said, " Spending more than 5 minutes analyzing a chart is nothing more than mental masturbation". I would not agree with that. But in my opinion, looking at 4 or more time frames comes close to an exercise in Intellectual self gratification.
For VSA 12h,4h,30,15,5
for PA 5,7,9,10,13,15,20,30,72
While for most it probably would be self gratification, I find many more trades I would never see in one TF. And a lot just give more confirmation to the one TF I'm looking at really.
I only have 3 charts opened though, regular start time chart, 7:20 CST start, and TPO. Use keyboard to change TF a lot.
For a new trader, all that would be ridiculous, confusing and futile. Anyway TF's are personal and everyone will have to figure out what they mesh with, it will take many hours watching charts, contrary to B Williams.
  • #26,607
  • Apr 17, 2015 6:47pm Apr 17, 2015 6:47pm
Not VSA, but a really good watch.

Inserted Video
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,608
  • Edited 8:02pm Apr 17, 2015 7:51pm | Edited 8:02pm
Quoting HiddenGap
Not VSA, but a really good watch. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DYEKbINgS8
Ya, I learned order flow stuff mostly from him. Good scalper. I find i can see the same stuff with PA and VSA, but learning order flow did help to better understand PA. Do you find it compliments your current system?
  • #26,609
  • Apr 18, 2015 12:02am Apr 18, 2015 12:02am
This candle how to explain?
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  • #26,610
  • Apr 18, 2015 12:06am Apr 18, 2015 12:06am
can anyone tell me what is that up bar in the below chart?

It didn't make a higher high but a lower low, doesn't look like a no demand, is it a hidden test or some sort of a no supply?

Thanks.

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The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #26,611
  • Apr 18, 2015 12:21am Apr 18, 2015 12:21am
why that bar has to be important?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #26,612
  • Apr 18, 2015 12:52am Apr 18, 2015 12:52am
Hi mima

well, you must've noticed we already have a double top, than bar A looked like a strong bar but the next bar was down. ok no problem, than we saw a 2 bar but only to be followed by more downbars. PA is now below the previous low, so was curious what is the primafacie indication of that up bar there.

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The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #26,613
  • Apr 18, 2015 7:50am Apr 18, 2015 7:50am
Quoting Kingsford
This candle how to explain? {image}
That's a high impact news candle at N.Y. open. There was already a few big SoW in the background. See 15m chart. Effort to go up rejected at resistance which is very much confirmed in the candles to follow. MP would say activity was cut off at higher prices so price went down because it was facilitating trade better. That's better than most explanations but VSA has a better explanation. The higher volume on the UT shows professional activity, they want the price to stay below where it was. It shows they have a probable position on already. The activity shows shorts were puking, stops were taken etc.. I could go on for much longer..
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Now see 4h chart, where the price went up to in London and N.Y. is highest high e/u has had in while and a major resist zone (call it what you will). The market has a memory...
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The PA leading up to news also said weakness, you have a ND like candle > UT like candle > even lower vol ND > news. Price went up to London high and was completely rejected again. It's a news candle, who knows the countless reasons why. An easily digestible one would be that you must search above for liquidity if you want to go down, and vice versa. Let the price go up, get a better price why you slam it down. Maybe there was huge buyers buying Euros on the news and a bigger someone was waiting for that moment to sell into that great buying pressure ("Smart Money" is not one big happy family).

Next chart shows the PA a bit better than the 15m

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Others will maybe add even better understanding to that 1h candle. It happens all the time and you can take advantage of it someday. Supply > demand at that time and level. One last example from 15m chart on 4-3-15, exact same idea:
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  • #26,614
  • Apr 18, 2015 11:32am Apr 18, 2015 11:32am
Quoting Kingsford
This candle how to explain? {image}
Not sure what you are looking for here.

This is your base VSA situation. Strength, when it appears, usually appears on DOWN bars.

In this case, we see a wide spread DOWN candle that closes off of its high on Ultra High Volume. If this bar was weak, we might expect a lower close within the range. But more importantly, we would not expect the next bar to be UP. Since the next bar is UP, we must conclude that there was "hidden" buying in the previous interval.

If you had looked at this interval and seen a possible Trap Up Move, which is a sign of weakness. The fact that the next bar is UP, means that the Trap Up Move did not confirm. An unconfirmed sign of weakness is a defacto sign of strength.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,615
  • Apr 18, 2015 12:00pm Apr 18, 2015 12:00pm
Quoting pres78
..... Having a reason to pull the trigger changed my trading forever. Volume at volume! Don't get caught hanging out with the herd. Today is giving a new UHV zone for trading into next week. {image}
Everytime I think I'm out, you pull me back in.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,616
  • Apr 18, 2015 8:09pm Apr 18, 2015 8:09pm
Two almost identical candles and volume, the result is not the same, and why?
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  • #26,617
  • Apr 18, 2015 8:32pm Apr 18, 2015 8:32pm
Quoting Kingsford
Two almost identical candles and volume, the result is not the same, and why? {image}
Look at the levels on both, E/U got all the way down to its low test in that one interval, just took G/U longer. Why should they move the exact same? They might move in step a lot but, the big players orders and important levels in each pair have a different structure to them. That E/U level is a pretty big 4h zone, no idea about G/U I never look at it.
And I suppose you could say there was more selling in the G/U than the E/U in that interval, as you can see by the following candles.
  • #26,618
  • Edited 12:46pm Apr 19, 2015 12:29pm | Edited 12:46pm
both found support at the swing low on a price based chart it would look nearly =
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Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #26,619
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:44pm Apr 19, 2015 2:44pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Using a Market Profile indicator with a fib extension from last weeks high to low gives a tentative provisional target of ~1.1050 at the 1.618 extension. Support may be at the median/POC of the MPs from 4-2-15/4-9-15/4-17-15 if the EU remains Bid. This FXCM MT4 1H chart shows tick activity and not volume; despite that it's still a possible if not likely scenario so I speculate. Additionally and if EU has be boning up on it's Elliot Wave count, it looks like it's near the end of a C correction after 5 waves down on the weekly and from the 2008 top....
That's market profile on mt4? Seems like a volume or tick profile to me.
  • #26,620
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:21pm Apr 19, 2015 7:21pm
Quoting hieronymus
{quote} That's market profile on mt4? Seems like a volume or tick profile to me.
Thank you for your comment. I shall remove the offending post pronto. Cheers. Best.
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