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  • #134,881
  • May 12, 2015 9:58pm May 12, 2015 9:58pm
think I will try some aussie longs near 7922 if I get a chance today...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,882
  • May 13, 2015 2:05am May 13, 2015 2:05am
Quoting PayTheLimit
anyone see any support near 1.1115...
still gonna try some longs here if I get a chance...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,883
  • May 13, 2015 3:26am May 13, 2015 3:26am
Quoting sisse
.... Copy/Paste session (tradable intraday) in the making after London goes home with 1.121x [check] as a base for a new test 1.128x [fail] and if enough sellers are still ...
Quoting sisse
... Now without London we can settle for the play and the roll until tomorrow european numbers.... Without further surprises, day is pretty much over in the euro with 1.120x [check] as only level to track for the roll.... sisse
Mixed bag of numbers in Europe with a slightly negative impact for the usual strong countries but positive undertone in the mid term as the other major countries [and the more sluggish in the last few years] are starting to very slowly showing some signs of life (France and Italy)... in simple words, nothing new from Europe ...and back to square one till NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,884
  • May 13, 2015 5:21am May 13, 2015 5:21am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Please check followings. I am not sure are they correct or not http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rat...ment-bonds/us/ http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND
If you don't have them in your trading platform you can quickly have it as a reference in Bloomberg, FT, WSJ and CNBC. Just check for the tickers (DE10Y-DE, US10Y-US,GDBR10:IND, USGG10YR:IND, etc), make a watchlist and compare them in a chart.

I don't think you need more than that if you are not trading the underlying or managing other kind of portfolios outside of forex but I would HIGHLY recommend you to have it in your Workspace ALWAYS in a small corner with a couple of major alerts in key areas of interest ...

I took the reply out of the noisy thread because its a key question that always repeat in these boards and the answers always get buried in minutes in the noise....

I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,885
  • May 13, 2015 5:43am May 13, 2015 5:43am
Quoting sisse
{quote} If you don't have them in your trading platform you can quickly have it as a reference in Bloomberg, FT, WSJ and CNBC. Just check for the tickers (DE10Y-DE, US10Y-US,GDBR10:IND, USGG10YR:IND, etc), make a watchlist and compare them in a chart. I don't think you need more than that if you are not trading the underlying or managing other kind of portfolios outside of forex but I would HIGHLY recommend you to...
Thank you!
  • #134,886
  • May 13, 2015 6:18am May 13, 2015 6:18am
Basic and simple european session over in the euro. As expected after the news we went back to square one 1.120x.

Rinse and repeat in play for the US news and opening range. Lots of data coming this afternoon and Europe closing is a extended one as tomorrow most of continental Europe is on holiday so watch out for Europe raising weekly bids and offers on the european close ....

Particular attention to OIL today after the very bleak outlook from China this morning. Inventories and a test and failure to break $63.xx will trigger imminent end of the move there which is very tradabale and for the dollar it will align commodities with the rest of the market...

For the rest of the sessions today, same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,887
  • May 13, 2015 6:52am May 13, 2015 6:52am
Quoting sisse
{quote} If you don't have them in your trading platform you can quickly have it as a reference in Bloomberg, FT, WSJ and CNBC. Just check for the tickers (DE10Y-DE, US10Y-US,GDBR10:IND, USGG10YR:IND, etc), make a watchlist and compare them in a chart. I don't think you need more than that if you are not trading the underlying or managing other kind of portfolios outside of forex but I would HIGHLY recommend you to...

Saxobank has many of those instruments for trading


if you have a Demo with them, you can chart them, but I think the Demos from Saxo are only valid for 20 days or so


also some instruments available per Tradingview



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=AMEX%3ABUNL#

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FX%3ABUND


for example
  • #134,888
  • May 13, 2015 7:00am May 13, 2015 7:00am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Saxobank has many of those instruments for trading if you have a Demo with them, you can chart them, but I think the Demos from Saxo are only valid for 20 days or so also some instruments available per Tradingview https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=AMEX%3ABUNL# https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FX%3ABUND for example
Yeap thats a good recommendation too.

Any futures broker will offer you FGBM, FGBL ZN and the other Zs which will serve as reference too. However, the main issue is that you would still need to manually create the yield spreads for comparison (thats why FT and Bloomberg links become handy ...they do it for you) ... but in any case, its guarantee you don't need to pay extra for that live information ..we are not in the 200s anymore !!!...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,889
  • May 13, 2015 7:22am May 13, 2015 7:22am
FRED is also a good source

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=15Zi


you can access some of the charts "pre-compiled" via my blog

http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/p/fred.html


below eachof those charts is a link for "customization" of the charts
  • #134,890
  • May 13, 2015 7:24am May 13, 2015 7:24am
Quoting Magix
{quote} There's still a little meat on that bone... Let the dogs fight and come back when the picking is prime. {image}
dipped my toe
  • #134,891
  • May 13, 2015 7:50am May 13, 2015 7:50am
Quoting sisse
Basic and simple european session over in the euro. As expected after the news we went back to square one 1.120x. Rinse and repeat in play for the US news and opening range...
...and that was it. Clean and easy move as expected. Only final intraday extension target left open until Europe goes home ...

Well done all the rode the mini intraday leg.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,892
  • May 13, 2015 7:57am May 13, 2015 7:57am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and that was it. Clean and easy move as expected. Only final intraday extension target left open until Europe goes home ... Well done all the rode the mini intraday leg. sisse
Sisse, may I please ask for your insight of the current situation?
The data came out rather mixed, it is a miss this month, but a positive revise of last month. I see EU still has some last wishes in the highs, and the soft data are helping, but on the other hand, it is also loosing a lot of momentum... Can the extension and exhausting leg reach the 1.15x handle? I think this rally might even last until June NFP.

Thank you!
  • #134,893
  • Edited 8:20am May 13, 2015 8:10am | Edited 8:20am
First I don't know your trading background but for what is worth I have seen your posts and analysis lately and they are getting very solid, unemotional and closer to the market. V. Nice...

on your questions

Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Sisse, may I please ask for your insight of the current situation? The data came out rather mixed, it is a miss this month, but a positive revise of last month.
As you clearly are noticing and also for reference to others who have asked me before. The is a difference between "the headline" for the media and retail and "the actual" reading of these numbers.

Indeed the data came mixed (v. slightly negative) despite the headline because of the revisions. The issue is that most of the market already expected some upwards revision (in most US numbers) because they were too distorted by one off externalities (the weather) so the revision short term were mostly already digested since the last NFP.

On the other hand, the new ones are fresh and are bit underwhleming and are off the mark in the short term. Thats why in general we had a direct move and not a zigzag ...

Quote
I see EU still has some last wishes in the highs, and the soft data are helping, but on the other hand, it is also loosing a lot of momentum... Can the extension and exhausting leg reach the 1.15x handle? I think this rally might even last until June NFP. Thank you!

Technically is still valid for the mid term swing in an exhaustion move but the main swing and the intraday leg have that level very locked for now. We'll need a run on stops (macro stops) at the 1.14xx handle to unlock that with an exhaustion move in a quick in an out leg. Timing wise, we still have time until the ECB and especially FOMC in June. Later than that it will be very very hard timingwise.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,894
  • May 13, 2015 8:30am May 13, 2015 8:30am
Quoting sisse
First I don't know your trading background but for what is worth I have seen your posts and analysis lately and they are getting very solid, unemotional and closer to the market. V. Nice... on your questions {quote} As you clearly are noticing and also for reference to others who have asked me before. The is a difference between "the headline" for the media and retail and "the actual" reading of these numbers. Indeed the data came mixed (v. slightly negative) despite the headline because of the revisions. The issue is that most of the market already...
Greetings Sisse,
in short, we might visit 1.14 handle before E/U travel back down or further travel to higher heights?
the current movement of E/U is quite confusing now
  • #134,895
  • May 13, 2015 8:32am May 13, 2015 8:32am
Quoting sisse
First I don't know your trading background but for what is worth I have seen your posts and analysis lately and they are getting very solid, unemotional and closer to the market. V. Nice... on your questions {quote} As you clearly are noticing and also for reference to others who have asked me before. The is a difference between "the headline" for the media and retail and "the actual" reading of these numbers. Indeed the data came mixed (v. slightly negative) despite the headline because of the revisions. The issue is that most of the market already...
Thank you!!! What an encouragement!! I am still learning, but I am so grateful that I actually came across such an extraordinary time of the market, ha... hopefully we will have a fruitful ride.

Talking about the macro level stop hunt...after seeing how aggresively the market was selling EU in March. I would not be surprised if they pick a day and hunt that 1.14 level... the market has streched my imagination, hehe... the current condition is a bit too risky for a starter to participate, so I plan to stay sideline most of the week. Just to observe and learn.

Thank you Sisse as always!
  • #134,896
  • May 13, 2015 8:40am May 13, 2015 8:40am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Thank you!!! What an encouragement!!... Talking about the macro level stop hunt....... Thank you Sisse as always!
YW... just a small comment on "hunting". There is not such a thing as stop hunting in major levels like this. Stop hunting was a micro invention of dealers and brokers when they used to run tiny micro intraday swings that caught minions/retail intraday on the right side but at the wrong time and price (this part is sadly still true as you can extensivly see in FF).

Sure they are some barrier defences and some intraday/daily runs to clear some weak hands before a major move but those are not really hunting and worst when we have macro levels. If we run above 1.14xx is because the market will run it through not because some intraday orders pusher (dealer and market makers) will crash the dollar/euro....

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In any case... key inventories and bunch of more data before Europe goes on extended close... nothing new to see. Same trades, same levels, same all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,897
  • May 13, 2015 8:44am May 13, 2015 8:44am
Quoting sisse
{quote} If you don't have them in your trading platform you can quickly have it as a reference in Bloomberg, FT, WSJ and CNBC. Just check for the tickers (DE10Y-DE, US10Y-US,GDBR10:IND, USGG10YR:IND, etc), make a watchlist and compare them in a chart. I don't think you need more than that if you are not trading the underlying or managing other kind of portfolios outside of forex but I would HIGHLY recommend you to...
Thanks! I have found those tickers, and compared them in a chart in Bloomberg, but what I am really looking for is a platform where I can subtract one from the other like you can in Tradingview, so I can chart just the spread and play around with it. Trading view has the yields for the 10Y T bills but unfortunately not for bunds (or at least not that I've been able to find.)
  • #134,898
  • May 13, 2015 8:53am May 13, 2015 8:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Saxobank has many of those instruments for trading if you have a Demo with them, you can chart them, but I think the Demos from Saxo are only valid for 20 days or so also some instruments available per Tradingview https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=AMEX%3ABUNL# https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=FX%3ABUND for example

Thanks. It's not quite what I'm looking for. I need one ticker that shows the T-bill yields (which you do have in Trading view and one that shows the yields for Bunds (which I haven't been able to find there) in a platform that lets you subtract one from the other (like Tradingview does) so I can get a chart of the spread between them. I am interested in the relationship between the widening/narrowing of that spread, the DXY, and the US stock market. Or a way to import data into Tradingview, which I haven't found. Or I'll have to do it in Excel and try to export it to MT, which will be a royal pain, so I'd rather find it in Tradingview or similar.
  • #134,899
  • May 13, 2015 8:55am May 13, 2015 8:55am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Thanks. It's not quite what I'm looking for. I need one ticker that shows the T-bill yields (which you do have in Trading view and one that shows the yields for Bunds (which I haven't been able to find there) in a platform that lets you subtract one from the other (like Tradingview does) so I can get a chart of the spread between them. I am interested in the relationship between the widening/narrowing of that spread, the DXY, and the US stock market. Or a way to import data into Tradingview, which I haven't found. Or I'll have to do it in...
We're at your mid
  • #134,900
  • May 13, 2015 8:57am May 13, 2015 8:57am
Quoting sisse
In any case... key inventories and bunch of more data before Europe goes on extended close... nothing new to see. Same trades, same levels, same all sisse
expect a short build and wti to $62.50....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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