4 Hour Strategy (MACD) | Page 1444 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4 hour strategy (the nausbot - 4 hour trader) 25 replies

4 Hour Strategy Macd+other Indicator 21 replies

X-1102 1 hour , 4 hour and daily Tf trades 7 replies

Create a verticle line at certain hour for every certain hour 16 replies

Is the "4 Hour Strategy (MACD)" the best system here at FF? 20 replies

Attachments: 4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
Exit Attachments

4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #28,861
  • Edited 10:26pm Apr 23, 2015 10:11pm | Edited 10:26pm
Quoting trademin
150407NZDCAD: There is a new trade as well as a new comer for me. I dont remember having ever traded this pair. But it seems to be interesting by the figures it makes. There are a lot more to see on the weekly chart and daily chart, but the 4hrs chart is my focus.-As so many times, I sold it too soon! Triple top(RT/HS), divergence on the macd, target at .9200 or so, then .8700. Price broke the neckline (orange), making later another possible HS which price didnt broke the green neckline yet, but will see I am not in a hurry on this one because of...
150423:
targets have been reached( some 16 days later): nice gain have been done while others have been hit by Stop loss, some more targets: .8950 aprox, .8700...
A so beautiful set up and I still have that Stop Loss problem! but there is still some nice opportunities on that pair that could get that experience better results!
still not in a hurry.
Yvon
  • #28,862
  • Apr 29, 2015 6:31am Apr 29, 2015 6:31am
MACD Colored v103.mq5

Would anyone know if there exists the above for MT5? If Yes, would you mind sharing.

Thanks All ..
  • #28,863
  • May 1, 2015 4:34am May 1, 2015 4:34am
Hi Yvon,

Was just reviewing my trade records and I have a number of trades that lost money. I find this a concern as I am losing money as a result. These were the trades taken on 21ema and moving away from it. I don't have the charts to show you. But as far as I do understand, this are what I look for when trading as price moves away from 21ema:
a. 89ema above market = bullish and vice versa
b. look for candle pattern - engulfing, tweezers, shooting star etc. OR
c Chart pattern OR
d. break through, pull back and move away (BPM)
e. MACD formation i.e. TC, zero turnaround, break of zero etc.
f. check there MACD and chart are not in divergence
g. gap between 8 and 21 ema are not too far apart.
h. price moving away from 21ema, after pull back isn't too huge (I set it to about 40pips)
f. I sometimes also pay attention to the next resistance level (TL) is very close by; if let say there is strong MACD Signal (TC, break of zero etc) or candle pattern, then I would take the trade the trade.

Can you give me your feed back on the above. And if you could please also tell me what else I might need to look out for.

Thanks.

Nicholas
  • #28,864
  • May 5, 2015 3:23am May 5, 2015 3:23am
Hi Yvon,

Here is one trade taken on 5th May 2015 which is a lost, 40+ pips. And just one of the many such trades I have taken that is thought to be moving away from 21ema but ended at a lost. Please also see post 28,863 above for the questions I have posted. Again, I have done my analysis and cannot understand what I could have done wrong. Please give feedback and teach me if you can how to make trades moving away from 21ema work.

Thank you, Nicholas

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_5_May.png Size: 41 KB
  • #28,865
  • Edited May 6, 2015 2:07am May 5, 2015 10:18am | Edited May 6, 2015 2:07am
Quoting nic73
Hi Yvon, Here is one trade taken on 5th May 2015 which is a lost, 40+ pips. And just one of the many such trades I have taken that is thought to be moving away from 21ema but ended at a lost. Please also see post 28,863 above for the questions I have posted. Again, I have done my analysis and cannot understand what I could have done wrong. Please give feedback and teach me if you can how to make trades moving away from 21ema work. Thank you, Nicholas {image}
there is my opinion here,

150505USDCHF :

Nic,

On the chart , looks like you have been hit by SL too narrow.
By putting the SL just above the 21 ema too close you could get hit( like it happens sometime too me too!) but one way to fix it is to look at the ATR , which in this case is about 124 pips.(look at the yellow circle at right , on the bottom)

By knowing that candles could reach 124 pips in range then if the SL is set at lower than that , it means that it could be hit! (Which it did in your case)

Now 124 pips could seem enormous isnt it?
So it would be nice to see the R/R if it could be rewarding here:

A possible target for profit could be set by measuring the channel or from the top of the HS down to the support (at about .9500 ) which could represent a target there. And then using that range (about 375 pips on my chart) and making a projection there (as per shown on the chart).

So now you have your entry .93630 (my guess here)
Your SL which is some 125 pips+ above could be .9495 or so (to make sure it will not be hit)
And your TP which is possibly .91200 (about 200 pips)
So 125/200 as a first target. Now elements are all in there.

This is what should be done before opening the trade. The idea is to evaluate the R/R by setting what are the possible SL, as well as the TP.

By looking at the chart itself and looking all the places where the candles get back to the 21ema, you will see that sometime the candles goes above (in this case) the 21ema and make a TC anyway. So by using the value of the ATR you can gage if your SL is in a safe place.
Have a nice trade,

....
By the way, while I was writing my opinion I opened a trade there,
Already a free ride here, my target is at .9100 aprox, will see...
- very often I will show or mention the “strong candle” to let you know that when it happens , my guess is that a lot of traders took the candle because they were expecting a break there. The idea is to “anticipate” what could be next on a chart by “reading” the chart. This is why reading the daily or weekly chart can give an idea of where the price could go next.

150506 :
03:06 hrs: one target has been reached: about 56 pips gain. maybe the pair will bounce off that support, will see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 150505USDCHF.png Size: 122 KB
Yvon
  • #28,866
  • May 5, 2015 9:31pm May 5, 2015 9:31pm
Thanks so Yvon. Very well explained. Straight to the point. I understand your explanation.

And I have another sets of question for you. In USDCHF above, there is the sHs formation in the chart, thus the possibility of the move downwards is high.
But in another case here- AUDNZD, you see the long candle (where I put an arrow), it was about 132 pips away from 21ema when it closed. ATR is about
89 (in my chart) and ATR high is about 130pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDZND_5_May_H4.png Size: 39 KB

How would one trade this? This is how do one make decision whether or not to trade this.

When considering the possibility of this trade I have 2 concerns in mind:
1) It was a long candle 132 pips and so the SL is very high. So one got to decide the R:R BUT
2) Is the market going to continue upwards after making such a long candle of 13pips? If yes, what is the possible next target, how is that to be determined?
As for me I think I could use Fibonacci at level 1.0637?
  • #28,867
  • May 7, 2015 1:17pm May 7, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting nic73
Thanks so Yvon. Very well explained. Straight to the point. I understand your explanation. And I have another sets of question for you. In USDCHF above, there is the sHs formation in the chart, thus the possibility of the move downwards is high. But in another case here- AUDNZD, you see the long candle (where I put an arrow), it was about 132 pips away from 21ema when it closed. ATR is about 89 (in my chart) and ATR high is about 130pips. {image} How would one trade this? This is how do one make decision whether or not to trade this. When considering...
hi Nick,
my view:

...AUDNZD, you see the long candle (where I put an arrow), it was about 132 pips away from 21ema when it closed. ATR is about
89 (in my chart) and ATR high is about 130pips.



How would one trade this? This is how do one make decision whether or not to trade this.
From where the chart is now showed, I would not trade this. As per the rules, the pair is almost at the same level as the last high since I don’t know daily (to know where the trend is). Will it break that last high or bounce back down once it has reached it? I don’t know!

When considering the possibility of this trade I have 2 concerns in mind:
1) It was a long candle 132 pips and so the SL is very high. So one got to decide the R:R BUT---the SL can be placed at the bottom of the body, cutting the SL by about 50% of that long candle.



2) Is the market going to continue upwards after making such a long candle of 132pips? If yes, what is the possible next target, how is that to be determined?
The rules gives many example on page one and other places, just go and look for that.
Knowing that , I like to confirm that rule so I use a different approach.
in this case:
If the pair gets higher that last high, I would consider that move as a consolidation's breakout. And the range covered by that consolidation could be the target. ( the green dotted line (365 ema)is almost the bottom of that consolidation.) On my chart,185 pips higher would be the target (1.0697) which the pair didn’t reached but got to 1.0682- very close to target!---and then for sure the earlier peak would really make sense and confirming the target and the rule ! Which is at 1.0736 aprox.

-----But since time as past we can see that the last high is now in search of direction (1.0620, as I write now.) by making that kind of pause, it means for me that the majority of traders just reached their targets, waiting…
As you can see the 4hrs Macd Strategy is a very efficient strategy.
- I don’t mind using the FIB level if it confirms the rules.
Yvon
  • #28,868
  • May 8, 2015 2:42am May 8, 2015 2:42am
Thanks Yvon.

I am relieved by your reply. Because I had something along the line too. This is 1) from the Daily time frame, I was not sure if the market would go further upwards and 2) on the other hand, I was half certain that it could go up further because of the breakout (the upper trend line)

But the risk was a little too high more than a 130pips stop. My target would be 127.7% FB level, price 1.0674 (190pips) and 20pips lower than what you suggested (1.0697).

When a breakout occur the move following the breakout is a strong one. Do you agree?
  • #28,869
  • May 8, 2015 9:35am May 8, 2015 9:35am
Quoting nic73
Thanks Yvon. I am relieved by your reply. Because I had something along the line too. This is 1) from the Daily time frame, I was not sure if the market would go further upwards and 2) on the other hand, I was half certain that it could go up further because of the breakout (the upper trend line) But the risk was a little too high more than a 130pips stop. My target would be 127.7% FB level, price 1.0674 (190pips) and 20pips lower than what you suggested (1.0697). When a breakout occur the move following the breakout is a strong one. Do you agree?...

hi nic,

most of the time it is,
Yvon
  • #28,870
  • Edited 11:00pm May 12, 2015 10:32pm | Edited 11:00pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_H4_13_May_2015.png Size: 58 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_Daily_13_May_2015.png Size: 44 KB

Analysis:
> Market is bullish
> Price break 21ema, pulled back and about to move away at the last candle??
> Price rejected 1.1237 three times, is market set to go upwards after the break of 21ema and pull back?
> Market broke he S&R at 1.1237 once then went back below the level again and twice unable to break it. Look like quite a strong resistance here.
> MACD is a trend continuation
> Target profit to previous high (1.1381) is 160pips, SL is 95 (ATR). R:R is ok
> Moving averages direction (21&8ema) pointed up slightly.

On the daily time frame, does the market look set to go further up?

I decided t sit back and watch how this market will react to the S&R area without taking the trade.

YVON, what's your opinion on this and my analysis?
  • #28,871
  • May 13, 2015 1:44am May 13, 2015 1:44am
Quoting nic73
{image} {image} Analysis: > Market is bullish > Price break 21ema, pulled back and about to move away at the last candle?? > Price rejected 1.1237 three times, is market set to go upwards after the break of 21ema and pull back? > Market broke he S&R at 1.1237 once then went back below the level again and twice unable to break it. Look like quite a strong resistance here. > MACD is a trend continuation > Target profit to previous high (1.1381) is 160pips, SL is 95 (ATR). R:R is ok > Moving averages direction (21&8ema) pointed up slightly. On the...


hello,,, Don't know if this will interest or help you ...

https://www.mataf.net/en/forex/eurusd
  • #28,872
  • May 28, 2015 7:49am May 28, 2015 7:49am
I have found something that probably could help someone:
One point that got my attention is when someone asks me about “what if” the candle closed above the moving average instead of closing below it…
It means to me that he is pointing something that didn’t happen, trying to add a change in history. Just like “what if” I had a blown out 7 to 8 tire on my car in my life. Flat tires almost disappear today. For me, planning a long trip doesn’t include the stress of having a flat tire anymore because of” “history”: I just had 3 or 4 flat tires in 40 years! (Yes! I’m getting old! I cannot change that either!)

So “what if” the candle had closed above the moving average? The answer is there is no
“what if” there.
What is seen on a chart is now sealed in time. Every candle is cemented in time, as well as their locations on the chart. This is what happened emotionally, fundamentally, technically. All of that is called “history”. – There was and there is no other way that all of that could have happened differently. Trying to modify the past is like saying: “what if” I died yesterday?
The “what if” applies only for the future. And it is called “Anticipation”, based on rules caused by the structure that support a strategy. My 3 or 4 flat tires cannot be change in time, that’s history.
I can say that I am taking a short position because of what happened in “history”, because of what I see on a chart:
When I see a Round Top, I won’t open a “long” position! I won’t forget that if I see something on a chart it is because it is history!
That ‘s my view,
Have a nice day,
Yvon
Yvon
  • #28,873
  • Edited May 29, 2015 7:54am May 28, 2015 9:25am | Edited May 29, 2015 7:54am
150528 EURUSD :

3 RT or 3 sisters or HS having the head at RT2. Breaking the neckline(yellow dotted line) or support line, or the channel (if a parallel line is drawn touching R2-pink)expecting a pull back to it in the next future was in the card, it did at the 21ema before moving away down, making a TC down there. Target has been reached: some 200+ pips gain there (little arrows). So people are waiting for the next movewhich is the last TC down there because the pair made a pull back to second neckline on a second hs (having R3 as the new head,or RT)because price broke the new neckline or support line or channel (if you draw a parallel line touching R3,) So price again is making a TC and price is below 89(purple), as well as the 200 (olive) so the mode stays bearish at this point while the pair is still in consolidation where traders took some profit .
Will see
edit:150529
price went out of the box and out of my Anticipation!-SL very close to be reached since the pair is at the border of the neckline, last frontier for my position!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 150528EURUSD.png Size: 88 KB
Yvon
  • #28,874
  • May 28, 2015 4:17pm May 28, 2015 4:17pm
Quoting trademin
150528 EURUSD : 3 RT or 3 sisters or HS having the head at RT2. Breaking the neckline(yellow dotted line) or support line, or the channel (if a parallel line is drawn touching R2-pink)expecting a pull back to it in the next future was in the card, it did at the 21ema before moving away down, making a TC down there. Target has been reached: some 200+ pips gain there (little arrows). So people are waiting for the next movewhich is the last TC down there because the pair made a pull back to second neckline on a second hs (having R3 as the new head,or...
Nice Chart.Thanks for your point of view also
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #28,875
  • May 29, 2015 8:14am May 29, 2015 8:14am
Quoting mike1349
{quote} Nice Chart.Thanks for your point of view also
Thanks for the comments Mike, but the pair is now standing in the neckline's wet ground, the limit of my anticipation, but will see...
Yvon
  • #28,876
  • Jun 2, 2015 10:13am Jun 2, 2015 10:13am
Quoting trademin
{quote} Thanks for the comments Mike, but the pair is now standing in the neckline's wet ground, the limit of my anticipation, but will see...
As you can see, the market chooses the upper side of the uptrend channel. There is a lost on the position(136 pips). From that break of the neckline, a projected range of 250 pips is almost done as I write: 246 pips!. 2 possibilities were there as anticipation and 2 necklines. That last RT didn’t get to the first low but turned around instead, with the possibility of a consolidation but turned around making an inverted HS. That little inverted HS didn’t get my attention: a change in trend.
I could have probably reduce the lost but wasn’t around to do so properly.
I need to take a break in trading, a pause. I stand aside for now. A fundamental even: Greece.

comments are welcome,
Yvon
  • #28,877
  • Edited Jun 24, 2015 7:38am Jun 23, 2015 12:40pm | Edited Jun 24, 2015 7:38am
summer is here and not too much people around. Well I wish good vacations for those lucky guys that are near a swimming pool or laid down on a beach! enjoy it !
while I can be counted as one of them, I just plug a possible trade in there just to put some sand between the toes for a change.
so have a nice day,

150623EURUSD

Yes on the daily the pair shows a very nice RT where the correction reached the 200sma (olive)and now a possible continuation of the downtrend. Should it bounce on the lower part of the channel, then the correction is not over yet..-
It is not easy since Greece quite an important factor in the equation. But the week just starts and the 89sma is at sight.
The target is at the 89sma (purple) as well as the lower part of the up trend channel.
On the 4hr chart(not showed) a pullback to 89 could be in the card.
Will see
there is a green candle , first sight of a pull back to the 21ema on the 4hrs chart...is that it as a pull back?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 150623EURUSD.png Size: 128 KB
Yvon
  • #28,878
  • Jun 23, 2015 6:50pm Jun 23, 2015 6:50pm
Hey what's up Yvon
Nice place for a turn around. Plus look at the purple horizontal line
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 062315-eurusddaily.png Size: 58 KB
  • #28,879
  • Jun 23, 2015 8:00pm Jun 23, 2015 8:00pm
Quoting trademin
summer is here and not too much people around. Well I wish good vacations for those lucky guys that are near a swimming pool or laid down on a beach! enjoy it ! while I can be counted as one of them, I just plug a possible trade in there just to put some sand between the toes for a change. so have a nice day, 150623EURUSD Yes on the daily the pair shows a very nice RT where the correction reached the 200sma (olive)and now a possible continuation of the downtrend. Should it bounce on the lower part of the channel, then the correction is not over...
Nice one Yvon. I have the same necklines (top and bottom) and kinda of missed it on the 4hr time frame because I was in slumber land when it happened. Plus, I thought I would stay out of EUR for this week until the reform for Greece debts is firm. I caught NZDUSD for about 70+ pips on Monday, sold on Tuesday. It's pulling back to 21ema now. Wait and see the next move. There is still some good pips to catch for a move down to 0.6600 level. Will see what happens after the pull back.

Have a summer and enjoy the sun in the beach.

Nic
  • #28,880
  • Jun 23, 2015 8:15pm Jun 23, 2015 8:15pm
EURUSD. Here is the chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD_24_June.png Size: 36 KB
12 traders viewing now