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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #1,961
  • May 8, 2015 12:10pm May 8, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting FxLapozi
{quote} Mine still open too. opened 10 positions. 7 in Profits now. 3 at bottom. What's ur TP davit? I am looking at 1.1990-95. They are bound to retest 1.2000.
Taking profit is tricky. Let me elaborate. Few months back UC kept dropping from 27-25-24 then go up again and I kept selling taking profit and repeating.
This month actually bottom support fell on UC and dropped lot lower.
Critical stage is 1.20 and that's hard to crack.I will watch the behavior if 1.20 reached and If I see strong support I will exit.
There is fundemetal reasons for support until June FEDs decision on rates.Once it nullifies UC will drop far lower like 1.15
Until then we will be in a range 1.20-22-23
Regards
forgot to mention make sure you cover profitable trades.Great job!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,962
  • May 8, 2015 1:09pm May 8, 2015 1:09pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Taking profit is tricky. Let me elaborate. Few months back UC kept dropping from 27-25-24 then go up again and I kept selling taking profit and repeating. This month actually bottom support fell on UC and dropped lot lower. Critical stage is 1.20 and that's hard to crack.I will watch the behavior if 1.20 reached and If I see strong support I will exit. There is fundemetal reasons for support until June FEDs decision on rates.Once it nullifies UC will drop far lower like 1.15 Until then we will be in a range 1.20-22-23 Regards forgot to mention...
I have already locked on the profit. Now monitoring the next hour if U/C cant break previous low, I might consider closing few trades in the middle chart, leaving the top running free with SL moved to +20

Anyway, have a good weekend ahead, Davit.
  • #1,963
  • May 8, 2015 2:26pm May 8, 2015 2:26pm
EG is poised to rebound. As you can tell it hit 20MA and RSI middle line but pointing up.
Watching for behavior
Possible long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPDaily.png Size: 38 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,964
  • May 8, 2015 3:27pm May 8, 2015 3:27pm
Quoting Davit
EG is poised to rebound. As you can tell it hit 20MA and RSI middle line but pointing up. Watching for behavior Possible long {image}
I like this as a tentative place to go long, but the Conservative majority win in the UK yesterday (weep for Great Britain) must be sold to the masses as an indisputable victory for business concerns and austerity economics until the news cycle moves onto something else. They are more concerned about Pound versus Euro there than USD, so I'm thinking a push by the powers-that-be into next week down to 0.715 might be the better entry point. Plus there's the ongoing Greek issue which could drop the Euro if negotiations fail again. Still, as I said, I like this as a place to start gathering longs, down to a retest of 0.70. Below that the 2007 lows of 0.655 will start looking like a distinct possibility.

EUR/GBP daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR-GBP daily 150508.JPG Size: 231 KB
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,965
  • May 8, 2015 5:26pm May 8, 2015 5:26pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} I like this as a tentative place to go long, but the Conservative majority win in the UK yesterday (weep for Great Britain) must be sold to the masses as an indisputable victory for business concerns and austerity economics until the news cycle moves onto something else. They are more concerned about Pound versus Euro there than USD, so I'm thinking a push by the powers-that-be into next week down to 0.715 might be the better entry point. Plus there's the ongoing Greek issue which could drop the Euro if negotiations fail again. Still, as...
Hi friend good to see you post again
I have 6position on UC short and love to see these in good profit before I open second front.I agree with you we could see lower EG although Pound has been way overbought cross the board and is "due" for correction.
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,966
  • May 8, 2015 5:27pm May 8, 2015 5:27pm
Quoting FxLapozi
{quote} I have already locked on the profit. Now monitoring the next hour if U/C cant break previous low, I might consider closing few trades in the middle chart, leaving the top running free with SL moved to +20 Anyway, have a good weekend ahead, Davit.
Enjoy your weekend as well.For me its all work weekend....
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,967
  • Edited 12:24pm May 11, 2015 8:18am | Edited 12:24pm
EG long
7197 7192 7185 3positions
May add more
edit
adding
7148 long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH4.png Size: 29 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,968
  • May 11, 2015 3:22pm May 11, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting Davit
EG long 7197 7192 7185 3positions May add more edit adding 7148 long {image}
BNZ announced rate drops in June and July. Two rate drops equals sell Kiwi.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,969
  • May 11, 2015 3:33pm May 11, 2015 3:33pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} BNZ announced rate drops in June and July. Two rate drops equals sell Kiwi.
Hi KADC
This pair is hard to sell because much of rate effect is already priced in to me.
Much like the Aussie which got stronger not weaker.
Key factor is USD if the Feds will raise IR in June which I think is too soon not likely to happen however should that occur we could see strong USD gains on all currencies.
I have large UC position and weaker USD is what I am anticipating

I'll suggest start building small positions on EG long now.Pound is "due" for correction
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,970
  • May 12, 2015 2:22am May 12, 2015 2:22am
Quoting Davit
EG long 7197 7192 7185 3positions May add more edit adding 7148 long {image}
Closed all EG at 7203 all in profit
GBP Manufacturing is up so taking no chances
I prefer counting % instead of pips 2% gain not bad for less then 8hrs of work.

So far this month 17-0 7% gain

If this dives after positive Manufacturing I'll continue to buy the Euro
I believe ECB will bail out Greece one way or another and Euro will skyrocket.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,971
  • May 12, 2015 3:16am May 12, 2015 3:16am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi KADC This pair is hard to sell because much of rate effect is already priced in to me. Much like the Aussie which got stronger not weaker. Key factor is USD if the Feds will raise IR in June which I think is too soon not likely to happen however should that occur we could see strong USD gains on all currencies. I have large UC position and weaker USD is what I am anticipating I'll suggest start building small positions on EG long now.Pound is "due" for correction Regards
The Aussie gain was after the rate drop. I don't believe that single move down after the announcement in Kiwi has a double rate drop priced in yet, but let me clarify that when I said sell Kiwi, I didn't mean against USD which I'm also shorting. It should be good to sell against everything else though until after the second rate drop when it will undoubtedly rebound unless the RBZ says something to keep it depressed.

If the Greenback actually has a rate increase it will fall sharply thereafter for the same reasons. The market only cares about what will happen next and I don't envision another rate increase in a declining economy. Even the rate increase they're promising seems ludicrous. Speaking of which, Dudley just announced he doesn't know when the rate increase will actually take place. Subsequently the European session just opened to a falling U.S. dollar, racing back for a final retest of 94.0 -- below that is nothing but air and sweet, sweet profit all around.

Yes, it looks like a go for Euro/Pound long from here. It fell right to my preferred target and is moving up nicely before the manufacturing data release.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,972
  • May 12, 2015 3:21am May 12, 2015 3:21am
Quoting KADC
{quote} The Aussie gain was after the rate drop. I don't believe that single move down after the announcement in Kiwi has a double rate drop priced in yet, but let me clarify that when I said sell Kiwi, I didn't mean against USD which I'm also shorting. It should be good to sell against everything else though until after the second rate drop when it will undoubtedly rebound unless the RBZ says something to keep it depressed. If the Greenback actually has a rate increase it will fall sharply thereafter for the same reasons. The market only cares...
Hi bro
I placed limit longs on EG 7150 7130 71 just in case it dives down.
Still have all my UC shorts

I understand now better after your explanation.I was mostly focused on NU
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,973
  • May 12, 2015 3:42am May 12, 2015 3:42am
EG long 2 position 7195 7202
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,974
  • May 12, 2015 3:43am May 12, 2015 3:43am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi bro I placed limit longs on EG 7150 7130 71 just in case it dives down. Still have all my UC shorts I understand now better after your explanation.I was mostly focused on NU regards
Hi Davit, avid follower of you, NU, do you have any trades on that one?
  • #1,975
  • May 12, 2015 3:52am May 12, 2015 3:52am
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Hi Davit, avid follower of you, NU, do you have any trades on that one?
No I try not to overextend too much.Got 6 UC positions and 2 EG that's taking too much margin.
I can't take anymore trades unless I close the ones in profit now but waiting for most opportune time to do it.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,976
  • May 12, 2015 4:09am May 12, 2015 4:09am
Quoting Davit
{quote} No I try not to overextend too much.Got 6 UC positions and 2 EG that's taking too much margin. I can't take anymore trades unless I close the ones in profit now but waiting for most opportune time to do it. Regards
Hi Davit, I m still holding the U/C I hold since last week. It's 6 positions with nearly 300pips now. How about you? What is your insight for TP goal? I am looking at 1990, 1985 with final tp at 1970.
  • #1,977
  • May 12, 2015 8:51am May 12, 2015 8:51am
Quoting FxLapozi
{quote} Hi Davit, I m still holding the U/C I hold since last week. It's 6 positions with nearly 300pips now. How about you? What is your insight for TP goal? I am looking at 1990, 1985 with final tp at 1970.
Closed all UC shorts at 2037
1.3% gain 23-0 this month


EG long 4 position 7195 7202 added 7178 7190

Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,978
  • May 12, 2015 11:08am May 12, 2015 11:08am
Closed all 6 positions of UC at 1985. Looking to reload short in near future
  • #1,979
  • May 12, 2015 11:42am May 12, 2015 11:42am
Quoting FxLapozi
Closed all 6 positions of UC at 1985. Looking to reload short in near future
Good Job Yes reload again! Tomorrow positive retail might do the trick
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,980
  • May 12, 2015 12:01pm May 12, 2015 12:01pm
Looks like they are pushing the pound to extreme to take all stops.GU has been going up 180+pips in last 5days
It may fizzle out soon

Added 1 more long on EG at 7157 total 5
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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