My trades using combination of FF strategies with fibs and EW

Hello Traders,
i am starting this journal with a demo account of 10,000 $ which will be attached to this thread, so everyone can see the trades i take. I will be taking the same trades on my live but using only 1/10th the lot size as the demo. I am using alien's rsioma and delay stochs, ideas given by great north with wm reuters benchmark rates and also fibs and EW(the little that i know). My preferred pairs are EU,GU,UJ,EJ,AU and UCAD. As and when i do find an opportunity, i will update the thread and provide my 2 cents of analysis. Trades are taken off 1hr and 4 hr. Most analysis is done on daily. My charts will be self explanatory so no worries about that.
This is my analysis on EU:
1) According to the idea given by Great North, ( thread can be found here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=526105 )
the reversals can occur at 14.6%,38.2%,61.8% and 85.4%. I have drawn fibs with the benchmark rates given for EU and at this moment, there is a huge daily bear candle after price closed below the 61.8.
2) according to EW, the last bottom we saw on 13th of march (1.0464) was labelled as wave 3 and the ongoing correction is the wave 4 of which we have seen the a and b leg and the c leg is ongoing. Has it completed the c leg is what we need to find out. if we count the individual waves of the C leg, it seems to have done the minimum requirement for 5 waves up, so we assume we have finished the wave 4 and now we have the start of wave 5 down. Besides this i have a confirmation from point (1) as well.
3) The Rsioma and delay stochs are pointing down on 4H and both has crossed as well. So the best possible trade here is a sell but i will put a sell stop at 1.1175 as this is just below the low of friday and if this trade triggers, i am expecting a 161.8% ride down to 1.0950 as my TP. My SL is 1.1287 which is the high of the 2 nd wave. SL is high but RR is 1:2.
Lets see how this plays out next week.
GU is a little confusing at the moment, so i will skip it for the next week. Next analysis on AU

EU sell trade is on until a TP of 1.0960. lets see how it goes. i will modify my SL to breakeven once it reaches 1.1100. Ideally with benchmar rates, the tp is 1.0940 but dont want to be greedy.

Aud is also a sell but it has not broken the current low yet, so a sell stop can be placed at 0.7855 and ride wave 3 onto 0.7702

View on GU.

GU is expected to end the fifth wave at 1.5665/1.5669 .wait for a price action reversal candle on 4 hr. most probably a pin bar to sell .chart is attached.

View on Gold.
Very Bearish in my view. This pair could plummet down to a very low level.

On a longer term my expectations are at FE 100 (1058) and at 161.8 price may touch even 955 at 161.8 .

On a shorter term price is leaning towards 1126 at 161.8 of the first wave.
attaching both charts

i have closed my eu sells as something does not feel right. The pair has taken a long time so far on a wave 3 . Normally wave 3's are fast and furious. This also could mean 5 th wave which i thought had ended at 38.2 expansion might go to 61.2 expansion .Refer 3rd chart of 1st post. In which case the bears have to wait. we will have to wait until tomorrow to get a clear picture.

Here is the latest view:

Eur/usd seems wants 1.1428 desperately. buyers in total control. looks like a retracement is due now from 1.1280 until 1.1230/1.1215 .. better wait it out until a re entry for a buy.

looks like the retracement is over ... now buy until a minor 5 th wave top of 61.8% of 1.1314. Good possibility of the wave to stop there and retrace a lot more after that as we already have an extended 3rd wave.

It seems the minor 4th wave is not over. It's still going on with a triangle setup. It should break higher once the e wave of the triangle finishes. Fingers crossed. here is the 15 minutes chart. hopefully at the start of the next hourly candle

Update:

The triangle does not seem to be a simple one. Looks like a falling triangle which will take more time to complete.

I hope this is the breakout that we have been looking for. abcde seems to be over and i hope eu is surging forward now. Here is a chart. onwards to a initial tp of 1.1303

thar she blows..... onwards and upwards 

if u notice even with bad data, eu is still moving forward to complete the major 4th wave correction which is aimed above 1.4 almost close to 1.5, so when we do know the major direction, its easier to trade from strategic points using ew of lower timeframes. I have 5% already from last 4 days .   Good trading to all

now wasn't that a beautiful move. Stopped trading for the day .time 4 some fun.
 

1.1425/28 is the 38.2 move from wave 1. This should cap the upmove for a while or even for a long time. I am not risking any more . The reuters benchmark rates has a 85.4 fib at 1.1440, so it's possible to reach there for a nice reversal. I will start selling small lots from 1.1425 onwards till 1.1440 and keep a SL at 1.1450.
1.1360 was the 61.8 on Reuters which seems to have crossed and candle closed above it. so the next stop is at 1.1440 for a reversal.
On an ew point of view wave 5 of this move can close at 1.1425 which is 38.2 and 1.1613 is 61.8 which looks a bit difficult not impossible.
Here is an EW chart.

i wouldn't sell here as that previous 4 hr candle looks extremely bullish and it will be against the trend. breaking down this 5th wave into further 5 waves on a 15 min chart gives this. (refer chart 1 below).

1 and 2nd waves were small but the 3rd wave was 361.8% of wave 1. In this case usually the retracement for 4th wave may only be 14.6 or 23.6 and then it will start going up again. so better dont sell now. sell at a much higher price and sell small lots as it is counter trend.
A chart on EU retracement before up again.

i made a good 6.5% profit today. Fingers are itching again to buy at a lower level. Don't know maybe i will wait until 38.2 retrace if it does then buy a small .1 lot. i will buy again once it crosses the high. but it might be tomorrow as this sideways movement might last the next 8-10 hours besides there is no news to move the market as well. so have patience and wait for the right moment. Good trading to all. you can see my buys on the trade explorer if anyone is interested.

my buy order triggered when the high broke this morning. since it's a bank holiday in europe, i really don't know if there will be enough momentum to take it to target levels. i am modifying my TP to 1.1410. No sl in place so far as i am manually monitoring the trade.


TP hit

price isexpected to reach 1.1440/1.1465 -80 . i have sold very small as it is counter trend. Will be adding sells higher up . Not putting any sl now.

sold again at 1.1439

clozed all trades with decent profit. Will reanalyze again later. Hope u all made some money.