Euro & Yen after a crazy day??? | Forex Factory

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Euro & Yen after a crazy day???

  • #1
  • First Post: Aug 10, 2006 10:34am Aug 10, 2006 10:34am
In view of recent and especially today's developments, does anyone have a clue what's most likely gonna happen to Euro and Yen going forward?

I am sitting on 2 rubbish positions with EUR/USD long and USD/JPY short! I have protected myself with hedges against both (but will remain 90 and 50 pips down respectively ).

Maybe I paid too much attention to Cathy Lin et al and was sure that EURO/USD was on its way to 1.30 and USD/JPY to 110 medium to longer term.

Is that still a very possible scenario or are we potentially looking and changed longer term prospects now? In that case maybe I should cut my losses given that I have 110+ locked in on GBP/USD?

Thanks in advance for any contributions!
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #2
  • Aug 10, 2006 10:38am Aug 10, 2006 10:38am
Geldmaster I hope you are using a demo and not real money. You seem to be gambling and trading on what others have to say. Why dont you develop your own system? That way if a trade goes against you you will know when to cut and run or stop and reverse.
  • #3
  • Aug 10, 2006 10:43am Aug 10, 2006 10:43am
REMEMBER..... Their is no Guantee in the market.....Do not follow peoples opinons...u will lose all your $...Do what Yardie says and develop your own system.....Price action= infomation



Quoting Geldmeister
In view of recent and especially today's developments, does anyone have a clue what's most likely gonna happen to Euro and Yen going forward?

I am sitting on 2 rubbish positions with EUR/USD long and USD/JPY short! I have protected myself with hedges against both (but will remain 90 and 50 pips down respectively ).

Maybe I paid too much attention to Cathy Lin et al and was sure that EURO/USD was on its way to 1.30 and USD/JPY to 110 medium to longer term.

Is that still a very possible scenario or are we potentially looking and changed longer term prospects now? In that case maybe I should cut my losses given that I have 110+ locked in on GBP/USD?

Thanks in advance for any contributions!
  • #4
  • Aug 10, 2006 11:12am Aug 10, 2006 11:12am
Yardie and Alsup, I hear you guys and thx for your frank assessment.

As to me not having a system and trading on others' opinions -
I do have a system, but I admit some lack of discipline and loss of control crept in over the past week with its crazy dynamics. I do understand what's needed to be successful, but I am sure you know about the challenges when you started out.
Maybe it's safer to ignore any longer term projections and strictly still to shorter term TA, but when taking into account longer term dynamics few can claim entirely original opinions and most are influenced by (other) experts. Might be my dayjob as a market researcher and industry analyst.

Regardless, I am keen to hear views re Euro and Yen outlook. Maybe short term is more appropriate. I am sure Money$Master will have something to say (if he bothers reading this novice's post )
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #5
  • Aug 10, 2006 11:22am Aug 10, 2006 11:22am
No comment on the price movement.

IMHO, hedge is one of the worst habbits you can have in this market. It hides your weakness and keepes confusing you from thinking clearly ever since. Simply let the stop be hit!

Happy Trading.http://www.talkforex.com/attachments...I14pdzJ8LO.gif
凹凸 only
  • #6
  • Aug 10, 2006 11:30am Aug 10, 2006 11:30am
what makes you believe it is not on it's way to 1.30? seems to me the market has been confused the last few days, could go either way... but probably would test 1.30 sometime... well at least 1.2978 or so but yesterday (when it was hovering around 1.2880) I decided it would go down first, so I positioned myself that way.

but I am no expert, so maybe some experts could shed some light...

Quoting Geldmeister
Maybe I paid too much attention to Cathy Lin et al and was sure that EURO/USD was on its way to 1.30 and USD/JPY to 110 medium to longer term.
  • #7
  • Aug 10, 2006 11:34am Aug 10, 2006 11:34am
Samurai, thanks for a further sobering comment. I guess hedging just puts a decision on hold and has the potential to get you in a muddle.

I guess I'll have some more humble pie for dinner and try to get back to my trading plan (as stated last few days blew my discipline a bit)
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #8
  • Aug 10, 2006 11:43am Aug 10, 2006 11:43am
I assume the dollar is soaring because of the terrorist thing in London, I certainly have no facts to back that up. But, the economic reports for canada and usa would have indicated not much movement and any movement probably against the dollar ( 8/10/06 am reports). Yet a terrorist gets busted and the dollar soars, this is the 2nd time I have seen this happen and I am a noob.

Anyway, I let my stops get hit... cried a little and waited for GBPUSD to appear to bottom out. I placed a long position at 1.8888, if I'm right and up this pm i will likely double my position. Hopefully, my stop has not been hit again in the time I have spent typing this letter.

Anyway, I feel the USD is overbought this am and reacted accordingly. It's probably a trend reversal though if luck has anything to do with it. Cuz this noob is not lucky.
happy trading
sw
  • #9
  • Aug 10, 2006 11:46am Aug 10, 2006 11:46am
yes, me too... I bought EURUSD @ 1.2772 an hour or 2 ago.
  • #10
  • Aug 10, 2006 11:48am Aug 10, 2006 11:48am
Geldmeister
Today you have seen a rather vicious usd "short squeeze"

and will probably continue to suck in usd shorts every chance it gets...

take care...
  • #11
  • Edited 1:01pm Aug 10, 2006 12:15pm | Edited 1:01pm
Quoting ycomp
yes, me too... I bought EURUSD @ 1.2772 an hour or 2 ago.
Here's just a little food for thought.

The Median Daily Range for the EUR/USD over the last 5 weeks or so is 130 pips.
Calculated by (Maximum Daily Pips[H-L] + Minimum Daily Pips[H-L])/2.

Look at today's Range. {your Server may vary but should be close}

High: 1.2910
Low: 1.2746
Rng: 0.0164

High: 1.2910
MDR: 0.0130
Proj: 1.2780

MHO
Conclusion: Expect Stalling at current levels.
  • #12
  • Aug 10, 2006 12:24pm Aug 10, 2006 12:24pm
Quoting Bemac
Conclusion: Expect Stalling at current levels.
stalling is good
  • #13
  • Aug 10, 2006 1:38pm Aug 10, 2006 1:38pm
EUR/USD down to 1.2650 within a week...watch....drop the long, go short...you'll see


The Hun.
  • #14
  • Aug 10, 2006 5:59pm Aug 10, 2006 5:59pm
Care to elaborate HUN?

Quoting thehun
EUR/USD down to 1.2650 within a week...watch....drop the long, go short...you'll see


The Hun.
  • #15
  • Aug 11, 2006 8:01am Aug 11, 2006 8:01am
USA USA USA


70 pips to go baby! You should have listened to the Hun. You could have made some nice cashola...
  • #16
  • Aug 11, 2006 8:40am Aug 11, 2006 8:40am
Quote
Is that still a very possible scenario or are we potentially looking and changed longer term prospects now? In that case maybe I should cut my losses given that I have 110+ locked in on GBP/USD?

Hey Geldmeister, first of all shame to hear about the two losses, but well done on the pound. I am not going to reply on your system, trade decisions or anything of that nature, too many times I see posts like yours with a host of "I told you so, how could you have been so silly" replies after the fact, neither helpful nor useful really.

Glad to hear you have a system in place, and I think you have already recognised your weakness in that you listened to others advice, but everyone is entitled to a moment of weakness . I do not view your decision to hedge the losing positions as such a bad thing, it is quite a common strategy amongst some very experienced traders I know of, it does, in essence buy you some time although does cost you the spread.

Be aware of correlation between pairs, to be short cable and long euro at the same time means you asking for one to offset the other as they are around 70-80% correlated.

It sounds to me you know what to do, and the quote above perhaps was your answer, you were just seeking confirmation. Best of luck, and remember if you know why you opened a position, you will know why you should close it.
You can quit and they won't care, but you will always know.
  • #17
  • Last Post: Aug 11, 2006 8:46am Aug 11, 2006 8:46am
With regards to crazy usd movements on Thursday, all I can say is:

*&#f***k_*&g terrorists should schedule their attacks on the forex factory calander so I can adjust my positions. Thoughtless bast*rds.
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