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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,941
  • May 11, 2015 7:48am May 11, 2015 7:48am
Quoting alexpi
I'm looking for shorts from here on
Hi Alexpi,

Whats this based on? overbought?

that 186.00 Is giving some short term resistance..
  • #10,942
  • May 11, 2015 7:55am May 11, 2015 7:55am
Quoting alexpi
I'm looking for shorts from here on
Yes looks to be a double top near 186, good move I think.

Sterling seems to be weakening to the dollar right here at 1.55
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,943
  • Edited 8:11am May 11, 2015 7:57am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Hi Alexpi, Whats this based on? overbought? that 186.00 Is giving some short term resistance..
This is just based on psychology. My statement from the morning was based on the expectation that they would do this pump up.

Look at that acceleration up on D1. Retailers are dying to long, fundamental traders are looking at the results of UK elections, and it's a great time for banks to present GJ buy opportunity to their clients because "Look how high it went just in the past 4 days, conservatives won, reforms and progress!". They start filling their sell orders with the buy orders of everyone around, beat it down to ~182, maybe even 180.7/8ish , then pump it up to 187ish again. Kill the bulls, kill the bears and then we'll see.

I could very well be wrong of course. I'm looking for shorts meaning I'm looking for signals that will confirm this opinion, I'm not actually shorting. There's a world of difference between the two...!
  • #10,944
  • May 11, 2015 8:04am May 11, 2015 8:04am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} This is just based on psychology. My statement from the morning was based on the expectation that they would do this pump up. Look at that acceleration up on D1. Retailers are dying to long, fundamental traders are looking at the results of UK elections, and it's a great time for banks to present GJ buy opportunity to their clients because "Look how high it went just in the past 4 days, conservatives won, reforms and progress!". They start filling their sell orders with the buy orders of everyone around, beat it down to ~182, maybe even...

Thank you for the insight. I am still struggling to see the bigger picture sometimes, especially at moment of indecision.

I am currently playing around with a strategy that I've developed that takes price action and S/R levels, though it still needs tuning. In short, I am happy for it to go long or short, it will trigger the relative pending order either way.

Though, as mentioned before, I feel a little 'blind' sometimes, and you're replies add context and food for thought.
  • #10,945
  • May 11, 2015 8:08am May 11, 2015 8:08am
This move may be just the stop hunt impulse before the sell at the big round number. Most likely there will be a EU deal with Greece tomorrow so maybe one more risk surge upward on the good news and that could be it. Could not resist, sold again at 185.79.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,946
  • May 11, 2015 8:12am May 11, 2015 8:12am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Thank you for the insight. I am still struggling to see the bigger picture sometimes, especially at moment of indecision. I am currently playing around with a strategy that I've developed that takes price action and S/R levels, though it still needs tuning. In short, I am happy for it to go long or short, it will trigger the relative pending order either way. Though, as mentioned before, I feel a little 'blind' sometimes, and you're replies add context and food for thought.
Just remember that I'm just 1 person and I'm sharing only opinions. Don't get influenced by what I say (too much), because I will change my opinion the moment I see the market proving me wrong.
  • #10,947
  • May 11, 2015 8:21am May 11, 2015 8:21am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Just remember that I'm just 1 person and I'm sharing only opinions. Don't get influenced by what I say (too much), because I will change my opinion the moment I see the market proving me wrong.
Indeed so Sir,

It is all in good faith and taken in context. i am sticking with my trades even if my views conflict with yours. Its more of the insight I am after. A good example is the one you mentioned above about the psychology element. I must try and remember, I am not trading just against nice neat lines that I've drawn. I am trading against people, and more importantly market makers who want nothing more than to sell me an idea of where the market is moving to then take my money in the blink of an eye.

I am happy to learn from experience, though I will keep in mind that you're only human and prone to mistakes just like I
  • #10,948
  • May 11, 2015 8:23am May 11, 2015 8:23am
Quoting Temujin
This move may be just the stop hunt impulse before the sell at the big round number. Most likely there will be a EU deal with Greece tomorrow so maybe one more risk surge upward on the good news and that could be it. Could not resist, sold again at 185.79.

You should limit your exposure. If you have multiple sell orders at a similar level, this is poor capital management. I wonder, if you assume it short, what risk %age of capital are you using per trade?

If it is a set amount, why would you double your exposure? Would hedging not be a better move?
  • #10,949
  • May 11, 2015 8:51am May 11, 2015 8:51am
LOL! HAHAHA! Worst pair ever! Strange surges out of nowhere. This cross is a joke. On micro account maybe but to make a living from it no way. Removed this hazard from my charts and will not be returning.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,950
  • Edited 9:49am May 11, 2015 9:12am | Edited 9:49am
im just beginning to look at elliot wave so take this with a grain of salt. but on the 4h it seems were are in about the middle of wave 5. if its accurate, there about 400 or so pips left in the move north

my math is wrong. about 800 pips total in the move so only a hundred and change left if it gets to full extension

that said, im buying dips
  • #10,951
  • May 11, 2015 9:14am May 11, 2015 9:14am
Quoting raiders
im just beginning to look at elliot wave so take this with a grain of salt. but on the 4h it seems were are in about the middle of wave 5. if its accurate, there about 400 or so pips left in the move north
Yes, if you follow alien system, there is a DS on 1hr in progress. I entered on the break of 186 with first target at 187.30. There is nothing short about this pair at the moment.
  • #10,952
  • May 11, 2015 9:20am May 11, 2015 9:20am
I'm certain though trading this pair for 3 years has not been a waste of time and has only made me better at trading other pairs like AUD/USD or EUR/USD. If you've wrestled with the best the others are easily conquered. I just do not like being forced to buy 900 pips higher than it was a few weeks ago. The forex market punishes those that want to buy low and sell high but GBP/JPY obliterates those that attempt it. The equities correlation with GBP/JPY has always troubled me because central bank planning has simply not allowed stock prices to reverse in any way at all. Hard for me to break this bad habit of selling so I'll just stop trading it. Good luck to all of you.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,953
  • May 11, 2015 9:46am May 11, 2015 9:46am
Quoting Profit Daily
{quote} Yes, if you follow alien system, there is a DS on 1hr in progress. I entered on the break of 186 with first target at 187.30. There is nothing short about this pair at the moment.
i try his system on demo its great. havent used it live though. lots of things to consider
  • #10,954
  • May 11, 2015 9:52am May 11, 2015 9:52am
Quoting Temujin
LOL! HAHAHA! Worst pair ever! Strange surges out of nowhere. This cross is a joke. On micro account maybe but to make a living from it no way. Removed this hazard from my charts and will not be returning.
I don't know who this guy is but he's talking nonsense. This is a great pair to trade and should be traded the same way as every other pair, though with a slightly bigger SL than on less volatile pairs such as EU due to the bigger range. If you can trade the pair you can trade anything, but if you can't, then you can't trade, it's that simple.
  • #10,955
  • May 11, 2015 10:22am May 11, 2015 10:22am
Quoting Profit Daily
{quote} Yes, if you follow alien system, there is a DS on 1hr in progress. I entered on the break of 186 with first target at 187.30. There is nothing short about this pair at the moment.
closed at 187 for +100. Will look for re-entry later, hate trading NY afternoon.
  • #10,956
  • May 11, 2015 10:30am May 11, 2015 10:30am
Quoting Profit Daily
{quote} closed at 187 for +100. Will look for re-entry later, hate trading NY afternoon.
  • #10,957
  • May 11, 2015 10:45am May 11, 2015 10:45am
Quoting Profit Daily
{quote} closed at 187 for +100. Will look for re-entry later, hate trading NY afternoon.

I'm to cautious.. 53pips. My confirmation strategy is all about reducing risk as low as possible. Downside. miss a lot of the movement. Plus side, i don't lose many trades..

Can't tell if its a good thing or not
  • #10,958
  • May 11, 2015 11:48am May 11, 2015 11:48am
Rays levels holding true
  • #10,959
  • May 11, 2015 3:57pm May 11, 2015 3:57pm
Evening All,

So, I was looking over the charts tonight, mainly checking my trades over n trying to learn a little as I go and planning my trades for tomorrow. I can use Forex Factory at work, but not MT4 so, its a little limiting.

I normally look at Day 4h and maybe 1h TF's depending on price action. Now, some of you have kindly assisted when I've asked in the past, so I'm hoping you can again.

As we all know, we've had some nice bullish moves since the elections. Today was a little unexpected which I'm putting down to the fact that there was been little fundamental news to cause anything negative to happen followed by a resistance level being breached. (feel free to correct me as I go).

OK, so to the point; I am trying to highlight potential trades before they happen, but my strategy doesn't allow me to trade until I have some confirmation. So I'm adding some tools to help me do this. One of which I am trialling is divergence'.

One the daily candle I have noticed a divergence forming (see attached). I have also drawn on a potential ascending wedge. How do I read this? Can anyone offer insight?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: diverge.png Size: 114 KB
  • #10,960
  • May 11, 2015 4:41pm May 11, 2015 4:41pm
check out my buddy ian copsey at ff....he uses divergence and equilibrium clouds.....for reversals he also has a few patterns.. He's here at ff and at harmonic Elliott ewave BlogSpot
generally 4h and daily
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