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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,821
  • May 10, 2015 6:20pm May 10, 2015 6:20pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} There's still a little meat on that bone... Let the dogs fight and come back when the picking is prime. {image}
Should hit right around when EU hits
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  • #134,822
  • May 11, 2015 2:18am May 11, 2015 2:18am
Calm weekly opening across the board with a light calendar for the next few session. Clearing noise from Greece (already cleared since 2 week ago but full confirmation of the kicking the can until the summer) and related is the one to kick start the moves.

In the euro, choose your poison time if you are not already in. Test of the floor of the range seem unovoidable for the 1.12xx play to 1.098x with noisy intermediate stops in last breakout point and max extension to the main swing floor 1.073x. To the other side, all pretty much cap at the 1.140x handle for now. Only a clean break will open an exhaustion leg 1.151x but it will need a decent hand from reports (either with superb numbers from Europe this week or an unexpected knee jerk reaction from Greece and friends ...).

Nothing to do here, same levels, same trades, same all.... GL all this week.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,823
  • May 11, 2015 2:42am May 11, 2015 2:42am
Quoting sisse
Calm weekly opening across the board with a light calendar for the next few session. Clearing noise from Greece (already cleared since 2 week ago but full confirmation of the kicking the can until the summer) and related is the one to kick start the moves. In the euro, choose your poison time if you are not already in. Test of the floor of the range seem unovoidable for the 1.12xx play to 1.098x with noisy intermediate stops in last breakout point and max extension to the main swing floor 1.073x. To the other side, all pretty much cap at the 1.140x...
Hi Sisse
when you are saying - choose your poison time -> do you mean that it is a good time one to decide and to enter long/short position?
but then you said "nothing to do here" - which suggests that it is not a good time to enter a position?

Thanks in advance for your answer
  • #134,824
  • May 11, 2015 3:31am May 11, 2015 3:31am
Quoting sisse
Calm weekly opening across the board with a light calendar for the next few session. Clearing noise from Greece (already cleared since 2 week ago but full confirmation of the kicking the can until the summer) and related is the one to kick start the moves. In the euro, choose your poison time if you are not already in. Test of the floor of the range seem unovoidable for the 1.12xx play to 1.098x with noisy intermediate stops in last breakout point and max extension to the main swing floor 1.073x. To the other side, all pretty much cap at the 1.140x...
Morning Sisse,

Could you please share your opinion on a Grexit? There have been discussions on whether it is good or bad for the EURO. Well, I guess in the end, it is good for the EURO, but trading wise, I anticipate a shock on EURO at the news of a Grexit, and then the EURO will slowly trade slightly higher.

What's your take on the topic?

Thank you!
  • #134,825
  • May 11, 2015 4:28am May 11, 2015 4:28am
We should rename the thread- Sisse's Q&A
  • #134,826
  • May 11, 2015 4:33am May 11, 2015 4:33am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Should hit right around when EU hits {image}
EU still dragging, Magix I'm showing we go below your zone if this current EU support breaks

7173 may be a place to watch, as well as 7119, with 7119 we should be well into 10xx zone of EU. Seems to be about a 60 pip difference on where I'd like to Long both..

That's supposing EU doesn't go sub- 10xx....many are saying 9xxx as you know. I've got a 50 in there..but unsure where EUGBP will be at that point, close to a LL
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  • #134,827
  • May 11, 2015 7:18am May 11, 2015 7:18am
Quoting jaxx80
...do you mean that it is a good time one to decide and to enter long/short position? ...
yes

Quote
but then you said "nothing to do here" - which suggests that it is not a good time to enter a position? Thanks in advance for your answer

...because once you choose your side, is nothing you can do until further developments ...

Quoting Shunyi
{quote} ... Could you please share your opinion on a Grexit? There have been discussions on whether it is good or bad for the EURO. Well, I guess in the end, it is good for the EURO, but trading wise, I anticipate a shock on EURO at the news of a Grexit, and then the EURO will slowly trade slightly higher. What's your take on the topic? Thank you!
Its negative for the euro (and for the market in general) in the short term until the safety nets already in place are tested.
...If they hold the initial short term reaction, its euro neutral in the mid term .
......and euro positive in the long term (...once you cut the gangrene part of a wounded patience...you can only get better ...)
Quoting Pharm0r
We should rename the thread- Sisse's Q&A
With very few exceptions, most of the posters around are either too shy "to share" some general views or too scare to "be wrong" ... the rest just leech and complain when things don't pan out fast enough ... in my case, I am always up for a good market/trading discussion as long as its in the proper time ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,828
  • May 11, 2015 7:22am May 11, 2015 7:22am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} With very few exceptions, most of the posters around are either too shy "to share" some general views or too scare to "be wrong" ... the rest just leech and complain when things don't pan out fast enough ... in my case, I am always up for a good market/trading discussion as long as its in the proper time .... sisse
I learn from your posts as much as anyone...no complaints here.

Minus some of the questions that should be already known before even entering the door...or could be looked up with just the smallest amount of effort..
  • #134,829
  • May 11, 2015 7:31am May 11, 2015 7:31am
anyone see any support near 1.1115...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,830
  • May 11, 2015 7:43am May 11, 2015 7:43am
Quoting PayTheLimit
anyone see any support near 1.1115...
got an ass level at 1120
  • #134,831
  • May 11, 2015 7:55am May 11, 2015 7:55am
Quoting AllyB
{quote} got an ass level at 1120
wonder if we get a look at it..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,832
  • May 11, 2015 8:11am May 11, 2015 8:11am
Quoting sisse
{quote} yes {quote} ...because once you choose your side, is nothing you can do until further developments ... {quote} Its negative for the euro (and for the market in general) in the short term until the safety nets already in place are tested. ...If they hold the initial short term reaction, its euro neutral in the mid term . ......and euro positive in the long term (...once you cut the gangrene part of a wounded patience...you can only get better ...) {quote} With very few exceptions, most of the posters around are either too shy "to share" some...
In my earlier post in EU forum, I stated EU is neutral and it is risky to play with it. It will continue to range for the time being. And a better trade is GU which my insightful analysis shows will go up on the micro and long term level. I even gave the turning points for anyone who cares to listen. Still some room to cover up for this leg of movement.
  • #134,833
  • May 11, 2015 8:34am May 11, 2015 8:34am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} wonder if we get a look at it..
does look like a good place to buy
  • #134,834
  • May 11, 2015 9:53am May 11, 2015 9:53am
Quoting palinco
{quote} In my earlier post in EU forum, I stated EU is neutral and it is risky to play with it. It will continue to range for the time being. And a better trade is GU which my insightful analysis shows will go up on the micro and long term level. I even gave the turning points for anyone who cares to listen. Still some room to cover up for this leg of movement.
Not really sure about that.

After the surprise in elections (which was/is sterling positive) the mid term outlook for cable looks very blurred. I would dare to say that is the less attractive currency to trade in the mid term.

The main issue is that the initial reaction of the Conservative winning which has important positive impact especially via the financial sector (no surprise that banks love the Tories) and the clarity of financial stability with Osborne as Chancellor, the election price was very high. The government is now hijack by the Nationalist and the very right wing of their party on the EU membership and that is massive self-inflicted uncertainty for the next few quarters.

Most if not all banks and major international corporations already dusted and activated plan b,c and d in case the UK leave the EU (e.g HSBC moving headquarters to HK is an "open secret", but most if not all will look for alternatives for their global/european markets). Markets, usually don't like protectionism and isolationist currencies and more importantly, making London lose their key status as global financial centre and European finance king will be painful and costly.

In simple words, the risk of Sterling becoming completely irrelevant in the mid term (without London as Center for Europe finance) the Pound will be as irrelevant as the SEK, NOK or etc...basically a follower of the main transaction flows between the US and Europe. While politicians and populist make the BLAH BLAH for the EU Referendum in the next 2 years, markets will be pretty much keeping a safe distant from the UK and sterling ...meaning extended choppy Pound expected after the FED hikes play...

--------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------

On the euro, as widely expected since 2 weeks ago. Greece just confirmed payment to the IMF so kick the can confirmed until the summer when the largest payments are due ... with that clear, only macro factors in play for the rest of the month ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,835
  • May 11, 2015 10:21am May 11, 2015 10:21am
Quoting sisse
{quote} On the euro, as widely expected since 2 weeks ago. Greece just confirmed payment to the IMF so kick the can confirmed until the summer when the largest payments are due ... with that clear, only macro factors in play for the rest of the month ... sisse
Without Greek headline risk, do you still think EU has the leg to test the floor in the near days?
I start to have a bit of doubts now, as the support seems to be in place...it seems to be more neutral atm, waiting for the macro number from the week...
  • #134,836
  • May 11, 2015 10:52am May 11, 2015 10:52am
Quoting sisse
{quote}On the euro, as widely expected since 2 weeks ago. Greece just confirmed payment to the IMF so kick the can confirmed until the summer when the largest payments are due ...
It's a miracle! Europe is saved! I can't wait for the next act!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #134,837
  • May 11, 2015 10:53am May 11, 2015 10:53am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not really sure about that. After the surprise in elections (which was/is sterling positive) the mid term outlook for cable looks very blurred. I would dare to say that is the less attractive currency to trade in the mid term. The main issue is that the initial reaction of the Conservative winning which has important positive impact especially via the financial sector (no surprise that banks love the Tories) and the clarity of financial stability with Osborne as Chancellor, the election price was very high. The government is now hijack by...
You have some points there. Maybe, the long term trade for GU is dicey , like you said. However, I think I have made my cool 1,681 pips today. Will take it on the micro swing level. and see how it goes.
  • #134,838
  • May 11, 2015 11:19am May 11, 2015 11:19am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} It's a miracle! Europe is saved! I can't wait for the next act!
you know what..... The more i think the more I am starting to realise that the EURO ZONE politicians (especially Merkel) have played (are playing) the long term hand very successful despite my and most of the people/market opinion/criticism on the euro crisis.

Basically, they are slowly and neatly expelling Greece from the Area:

  1. avoiding the contagion (pretty much all main sectors are shield now in case of a default) so a default is just a technicality at the end,
  2. avoiding the political cost of expelling a weaker member...at the end the perception is that extreme left (Tsipiras) in Greece has self inflicted getting expel while the others like in Spain, Ireland and Portugal are starting to see the positive results of the reforms, etc etc
  3. and more importantly making the other trouble makers (the ones that are important for the Area...Spain, Ireland and to a lot lesser extend Portugal) make extensive market and structural reforms to align to the super orthodox & tight fiscal German framework which is v. positive for the future of the Euro/

​At the end, Germany is managing to get a win / win situation. If the Greece decide to play ball good. If they don't, nobody cares and they are just collateral damage and unnecessary bag in the Euro Project, etc...

Lets see how it pans out in the next Chapter in the summer but if Germany manage to pull this out...hats off to Merkel despite whatever we say ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,839
  • May 11, 2015 11:24am May 11, 2015 11:24am
Quoting sisse
{quote} you know what...... Basically, they are slowly and neatly expelling Greece from the Area: ...hats off to Merkel despite whatever we say ...
Many have suspected that this is the case. Maybe Varoufakis is working both sides? Almost as good as "Game of Thrones", ...ach, if only there could be more blood....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #134,840
  • May 11, 2015 11:27am May 11, 2015 11:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Many have suspected that this is the case. Maybe Varoufakis is working both sides? Almost as good as "Game of Thrones", ...ach, if only there could be more blood....
je je je .... and especially if Merkel were Khaleesi ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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