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Let's Trade Options

  • #8,601
  • May 7, 2015 1:42pm May 7, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
ha ha, what a complete turn around but the VIX does not seem to agree with this, I'm waiting to see if this reverses back into a bear or not, the DOW crazy stuff
this 30 minute candle on the DOW is important, a close beneath 17950 could get really interesting in the last hour of trading and see whether we are heading down, above 17967 and will keep this bull going
  • #8,602
  • May 7, 2015 3:36pm May 7, 2015 3:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yep, shoulda bought some calls. Was Foolish to think we wouldn't see some btfd.....
SnP finishing back above 2080 again, bull market is gonna be hard to put down. I got out of the SPY May $198/197 puts diagonal shown above, a $0.02 net, everything else is hanging in....need a big market panic reaction to the NFP
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,603
  • Edited 7:19pm May 7, 2015 7:08pm | Edited 7:19pm
stop/start the madness

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...l-markets.html

"All the forces that combined to fuel the eurozone recovery are already slowing or in reverse. “Oil is up, the euro is up, rates are going up in Germany and the core, and spreads in the periphery are rising. This is absolutely terrible for the eurozone,” he said.

“There is going to be a monumental trade getting back into Bunds. All we are waiting for is a technical trigger,” he said."


...like this?

"Greece Threatens to Default on IMF Loan If It Can't Borrow More"
http://www.newsweek.com/syriza-threa...-borrow-329507
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,604
  • May 8, 2015 9:25am May 8, 2015 9:25am
What about this number today... next month when this will be revised for 1/3 of the value? Or not... Who cares .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: revised-nfp.png Size: 17 KB


Cash only, no positions.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,605
  • May 8, 2015 12:07pm May 8, 2015 12:07pm
Quoting The Fool
....I am hoping I get a chance to get flatter b4 the NFP...........
coulda shoulda, now I am back on the dicey side of short SPY trades, will be forced to keep holding into next week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,606
  • May 8, 2015 12:59pm May 8, 2015 12:59pm
taken a long put on DIA 181.50 for 10c, 2 hours left to make some $s

DIA May 2015 181.500 put (DIA150508P00181500)
-OPR
0.10 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/down_r.gif 1.95(95.12%) 18:39
  • #8,607
  • May 8, 2015 1:40pm May 8, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
taken a long put on DIA 181.50 for 10c, 2 hours left to make some $s DIA May 2015 181.500 put (DIA150508P00181500) -OPR 0.10 {image} 1.95(95.12%) 18:39
yeah, I thot about doing similar at SPY $211.50 when it ran up to $211.8x, missed it....good luck, CG
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,608
  • Edited 3:12pm May 8, 2015 1:46pm | Edited 3:12pm
UST long bond (TLT) interrupted steep slide of last weeks with a bounce on $120.5 on Wed, got back to $123.x today, and has already begun to fall back, now at $122.5. I will be watching the bunds and UST's next week, I doubt the rout is over, and that will spell trouble for the equity bulls, near term....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,609
  • May 8, 2015 3:26pm May 8, 2015 3:26pm
Now that I know I gots an extra 15m after rmh for SPY (maybe other etf's? - thanks SDog) I will be watching for these after hours moves around the $x.50 and $x.00 levels, for Friday scalps...

Have a good weekend, ya'll, fingers crossed for more volatile action next week...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,610
  • May 9, 2015 10:46pm May 9, 2015 10:46pm
Quoting The Fool
UST long bond (TLT) interrupted steep slide of last weeks with a bounce on $120.5 on Wed, got back to $123.x today, and has already begun to fall back, now at $122.5. I will be watching the bunds and UST's next week, I doubt the rout is over, and that will spell trouble for the equity bulls, near term....
Still working through paper trades, one of which is a Jun15 120/132 Short Strangle in TLT ... . Probably should just bail out of the call side of that at this point (which is one thing I will have to keep an eye on if I am going to be regularly using short strangles ... bailing out of one side or the other at the right time ... Naturally, I can wait until expiration, but my tendency is lock stuff in and then move on ... ). Just don't see it moving much lower in the short-term; in fact, the opposite.

Also, if you close out one side of the strangle before expiration, you'll naturally have to deal with the other side eventually ... . May be better just to close the whole strangle out when it's in profit rather than close one leg and have to deal with the mess of the other leg later ... . Something to think about ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,611
  • May 9, 2015 11:25pm May 9, 2015 11:25pm
Took two strictly directional trades, FXE Jun 15 111 Short Call and OIL June 15 13 Short Call. Probs should have set those up as verticals, particularly the OIL; while I think it's going to go down a bit from its high of 13.17, it's oil, and who the hell knows what'll happen with oil tomorrow or next week or the week after that ... . I'll bail out of those at scratch; verts is the way to go if it's possible that things'll get hairy.

... and set up a couple ER strangles in CRM, CSCO, and WMT ... . Would like at least one of these to breach one leg or the other, so that I can wrap my head around rolling for duration if the earnings play doesn't work out immediately. Seems to me that if you have to roll for duration, you're going to need to keep track (spreadsheet, etc.) of what the original leg value was, so that you know what your break even is after rolling ... .

The additional thing I need to get an understanding of is if you set up a strangle and one leg is breached, you (1) close out the profitable leg (if you haven't already); (2) roll the breached leg for duration; and (3) set up an inverted strangle (at least, that's the way TastyTrade folks dance around "fixing" this trade). Having a hard time dicking around with the math of figuring out when this whole mess will be break even ... . Again, will probs have to set up a spreadsheet so that I can keep track of what the original leg was, what the value of the rolled leg is, yada yada ... . Unless there's something in ThinkOrSwim that will help me keep track of that ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,612
  • May 10, 2015 12:26am May 10, 2015 12:26am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
if you close out one side of the strangle before expiration, you'll naturally have to deal with the other side eventually ... . May be better just to close the whole strangle out when it's in profit rather than close one leg and have to deal with the mess of the other leg later ... . Something to think about ... .
you will see big time or pro options traders are often trading just one or a few instruments (SPY or SPX, etc) - selling short many many (1,000's) positions across different strikes and expiries simultaneously...making 100's of trades a day....they just be rolling when a position is under water a certain level and taking profit at certain profit levels, too, boom boom boom, they don't think of individual strangles, ... check out Karen the Super Trader on TT....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,613
  • May 10, 2015 1:03am May 10, 2015 1:03am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Still working through paper trades, one of which is a Jun15 120/132 Short Strangle in TLT ...Just don't see it moving much lower in the short-term; in fact, the opposite....
TLT tracks the UST long bonds, and UST's have followed bunds down over the last few weeks....many think that move in bunds will reverse, but we'll see...there's not much sign of inflation increasing in the US, but the bond markets say differently, even if it's just positioning for a ffr hike by the Fed this year. I thought TLT would bounce down around $120, and it has, but I don't think it will reverse. I'd be a call seller, if anything, but I don't see enough juice in TLT options, am more focusing on the US equity index etf's...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,614
  • May 10, 2015 11:51am May 10, 2015 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
coulda shoulda, now I am back on the dicey side of short SPY trades, will be forced to keep holding into next week.
PBOC cuts rates.....any day another Festivus miracle will see the Greece debt "crisis" solved by more can-kicking...and we have the recipe for a continued rally in the new week, perhaps my only hope a sellinMay drop right into Opex.....fml
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,615
  • May 10, 2015 12:36pm May 10, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} TLT tracks the UST long bonds, and UST's have followed bunds down over the last few weeks....many think that move in bunds will reverse, but we'll see...there's not much sign of inflation increasing in the US, but the bond markets say differently, even if it's just positioning for a ffr hike by the Fed this year. I thought TLT would bounce down around $120, and it has, but I don't think it will reverse. I'd be a call seller, if anything, but I don't see enough juice in TLT options, am more focusing on the US equity index etf's...
You're probably right ... . I'm probably just looking at the chart in a way that offers "hope" to my set-up ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,616
  • May 10, 2015 12:46pm May 10, 2015 12:46pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} you will see big time or pro options traders are often trading just one or a few instruments (SPY or SPX, etc) - selling short many many (1,000's) positions across different strikes and expiries simultaneously...making 100's of trades a day....they just be rolling when a position is under water a certain level and taking profit at certain profit levels, too, boom boom boom, they don't think of individual strangles, ... check out Karen the Super Trader on TT....
It's pretty amazing how simple her strategy is and how few instruments she deals with ... . Quite frankly, it's kinda up my alley ... . Wouldn't it be nice to just trade, like, three instruments; on the other hand, could be kind of a snore ... . Wonder how she's doing in the current, low volatility environment ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,617
  • May 10, 2015 1:05pm May 10, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
It's pretty amazing how simple her strategy is and how few instruments she deals with ... . Quite frankly, it's kinda up my alley ... . Wouldn't it be nice to just trade, like, three instruments; on the other hand, could be kind of a snore ... . Wonder how she's doing in the current, low volatility environment ....
trading should be boring
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,618
  • May 10, 2015 1:12pm May 10, 2015 1:12pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} It's pretty amazing how simple her strategy is and how few instruments she deals with ... . Quite frankly, it's kinda up my alley ... . Wouldn't it be nice to just trade, like, three instruments; on the other hand, could be kind of a snore ... . Wonder how she's doing in the current, low volatility environment ... .
Light bulb just went on ... . She's basically strangling, but she doesn't set up her trades as strangles ... . She enters one short call/short put at a time, the net effect of which is probably a strangle ... . Best as I understand it, she enters a single high prob short put or short call at 1 SD (for example, in SPY) and then waits for those individual trades to play out ... . Claims to go flat every month-end, with nary a draw down ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,619
  • May 10, 2015 1:13pm May 10, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} trading should be boring
I prefer a lack of excitement ... . Ideally, if you're not losing sleep over what you're doing, you're probably doing it right ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,620
  • May 10, 2015 1:17pm May 10, 2015 1:17pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
... . Claims to go flat every month-end, with nary a draw down ... .
Details are a little sparse - I'd love to sit in the trading room with her team and see how they balance the two sides. As pipple always said, market can't be two places at once....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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