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  • #8,581
  • May 6, 2015 10:30am May 6, 2015 10:30am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} /CL spike almost to $62.50, profit taking bringing it back? I am hanging in USO calendars til next week....
I closed my USO $20 calendars today... got in for $0.05, out for only $0.08... which is only a B/E when comms are incluided.
/CL (USO) overshoots them, and I don't have time to monitor it... the other day I tried to exit also for much higher prices, above $0.12 I think... but nobody was there on median levels... MMbitchz, even on high volume u/l. Small entry, but that is only preparation for bigger ones. So, I have zero tolerance for risking it expire worthless. Lybia, USD weak, aliens, etc, every shit is now uber bullish for Oil.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,582
  • May 6, 2015 10:34am May 6, 2015 10:34am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} they look like it so far, i took a vertical put spread on DIA for Friday expiration as below for net 7c plus comms, ...
You legged in, I suppose... I don't like bid/ask on DIA options, and don't follow DJIA in general.
GL
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,583
  • May 6, 2015 10:43am May 6, 2015 10:43am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} You legged in, I suppose... I don't like bid/ask on DIA options, and don't follow DJIA in general. GL
YES, certain times your bid/ask can be a penny wide
  • #8,584
  • May 6, 2015 12:32pm May 6, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} You legged in, I suppose... I don't like bid/ask on DIA options, and don't follow DJIA in general. GL
a close below 17800 today in the DOW will open 17595 and 17300
  • #8,585
  • Edited 1:24pm May 6, 2015 12:53pm | Edited 1:24pm
Well, looking at my charts... ES 2071 was support level, next about now at 2067... and then a 30 point hole to the downside.
Could be interesting... I was thinking that 2071 was going to hold. Like many times before, just when you start to think bearish, like "this is it"... a bunch of BTFD-ers appear and ruin your day. Maybe just not this time.

addon - chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SPX-240m-05-06.PNG Size: 156 KB


Ok, we will see, sitting on my hands now, traded the in initial push down. IF I see a breakdown, I plan to short pullback (retest of the level).
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,586
  • Edited 2:12pm May 6, 2015 1:36pm | Edited 2:12pm
/ES going down... VIX above $16... oh man, could it be finally....

add-on
And yet, IBB is positive today... viva la biotech...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,587
  • May 6, 2015 8:43pm May 6, 2015 8:43pm
http://screencast.com/t/j77rGDIjTpZ4

The vid is a May/May4 $198/$197 SPY puts diagonal that I paid $0.14 for a few weeks back. There's a red line through the x-ordinate of the P/L graph at todays closing price of $208.05. The vid runs from May 1 to expiry on May 15. There's also a little red tick mark across the x-ordinate that changes day-to-day and marks the b/e for the trade. I have found that this b/e point moves the same across different kinds of diagonals, in general. It's important to model the changes in P/L to know when that maximally distant b/e point occurs during the life of the trade (often about a week b4 expiry). For this trade, that day is tomorrow or maybe Friday. The trade is $0.01 in net profit today, with SPY $10 off the short strike. That's one reason I like diagonals - there is a wide profit range - you just have to beware...the Death Slide.

SPY would really have to move down well to get into good profit between now and expiry. The b/e moves down, back toward the trade strikes, after tomorrow. I'll be watching SPY, but more than likely I will close the trade tomorrow m/l at b/e. I need the margin...$0.14 was too much to pay for a diagonal & I'll be glad to get out w/o a loss.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,588
  • Edited 12:52am May 7, 2015 12:35am | Edited 12:52am
Quoting StrayDog
I closed my USO $20 calendars today... got in for $0.05, out for only $0.08... which is only a B/E when comms are incluided. /CL (USO) overshoots them, and I don't have time to monitor it... the other day I tried to exit also for much higher prices, above $0.12 I think... but nobody was there on median levels... MMbitchz, even on high volume u/l. Small entry, but that is only preparation for bigger ones. So, I have zero tolerance for risking it expire worthless. Lybia, USD weak, aliens, etc, every shit is now uber bullish for Oil.
http://screencast.com/t/yNsVxyLBgK

No fault in getting out of a dicey trade for small loss. My specialty is hanging in too long and watching those go to complete ruin.

But......./CL really sold off after the lean build and has fallen $2+ off the spike up to near $62.50. USO will prolly be $20.50 or lower Thurs. The vid clip above shows that calendars, like diagonals, really peak in potential profit at the last day or so b4 expiry. The b/e points come in, but that happens gradually until accelerating over the last few days also. I know you know all this - I thot I'd reiterate for anyone who may be learning about time spreads.

(I paid $0.07 for the 10-lot shown, looking for $0.10-$0.20 net back....)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,589
  • May 7, 2015 1:29am May 7, 2015 1:29am
Quoting StrayDog
/ES going down... VIX above $16... oh man, could it be finally.... add-on And yet, IBB is positive today... viva la biotech...
are you trading IBB options or stocks? Frankie showing US index futures all red, /ZB red, /CL still red...Janet Yellen said stock were too high...if you don't start selling off those inflated stocks, she could hurt you.....

....I am hoping I get a chance to get flatter b4 the NFP...........
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,590
  • Edited 2:13am May 7, 2015 1:42am | Edited 2:13am
Quoting The Fool
TLT IVR continues to run up with its fall, I am looking for that to peter out at $120 or a little below, and look to sell Jun put vert spreads, as soon as I can get off my boatload of SPY credit spreads and free up some margin - hopefully
we made it there today, near $120, and now /ZB catching a little bid overnight, but not much. Afraid to touch it now, still sorry I missed the breakdown....will look at something for Friday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,591
  • May 7, 2015 1:52am May 7, 2015 1:52am
near biggest TLT trade from Wed, a $120/$118 puts short vert for Friday - somebody with money to burn counting on a bounce off $120.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-06_tlt.png Size: 60 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,592
  • Edited 7:59am May 7, 2015 7:46am | Edited 7:59am
equity futures still under pressure, working on three red SPY candles in a row - if we get that, I will be managing out of some of the May bear spread positions. 3 red candles begs the question of a green one Friday in response to a big NFP miss, maybe worth a little bullish bet on a weekly call....?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,593
  • May 7, 2015 7:54am May 7, 2015 7:54am
otoh, a (surprise?) strong NFP will drop the SnP down below 2040, sell in May go away will be a fact, backed up by the Fed's advice
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-07_es.png Size: 77 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,594
  • May 7, 2015 11:49am May 7, 2015 11:49am
Quoting The Fool
... But......./CL really sold off after the lean build and has fallen $2+ off the spike up to near $62.50. USO will prolly be $20.50 or lower Thurs. ...
Yes, you are right... closing that calendars wasn't the brightest moment this week.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,595
  • May 7, 2015 11:51am May 7, 2015 11:51am
ha ha, what a complete turn around but the VIX does not seem to agree with this, I'm waiting to see if this reverses back into a bear or not, the DOW crazy stuff
  • #8,596
  • May 7, 2015 11:51am May 7, 2015 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
... are you trading IBB options or stocks?...
None, a friend of mine has a position in IBB, and I monitor that... also looking at it as some kind of signal what is going on in the sector.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,597
  • May 7, 2015 12:09pm May 7, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting The Fool
equity futures still under pressure, working on three red SPY candles in a row - if we get that, I will be managing out of some of the May bear spread positions. 3 red candles begs the question of a green one Friday in response to a big NFP miss, maybe worth a little bullish bet on a weekly call....?
yep, shoulda bought some calls. Was Foolish to think we wouldn't see some btfd.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,598
  • May 7, 2015 12:12pm May 7, 2015 12:12pm
Hey guys!

Which brokers do you use for your options, and do you also trade binary options?

Thanks in advance!
  • #8,599
  • May 7, 2015 12:36pm May 7, 2015 12:36pm
Quoting csfxim
Hey guys! Which brokers do you use for your options, and do you also trade binary options? Thanks in advance!
nobody here is trading binaries, so far as I know, and we are trading at different brokers. All the options brokers are good.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,600
  • May 7, 2015 12:38pm May 7, 2015 12:38pm
Allright thanks the fool!
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