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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,781
  • May 8, 2015 12:24pm May 8, 2015 12:24pm
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Ah, I see. I think I confused the time reference here. I thought Summer Hike means June/July, cos for me Sep is Fall you know. Sorry, my bad! So how does it work in fact? Annoucement of hike for Sep will be in June/July meeting? July meeting doesn't have a press conference, so June FOMC? Or the hike will be announced in Sep FOMC instead? Thank you!
...oh I see...

Well September meeting seems to be the one (for now).

As you said, FED doesn't have much room for timing with only 2 more meetings before so definitively the June and July FOMC is the latest the FED has to clarify its position before markets start grunting on the lack of north.

RMT is around the corner and is nothing to avoid it except a major world catastrophe ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,782
  • May 8, 2015 12:32pm May 8, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...oh I see... Well September meeting seems to be the one (for now). As you said, FED doesn't have much room for timing with only 2 more meetings before so definitively the June and July FOMC is the latest the FED has to clarify its position before markets start grunting on the lack of north. RMT is around the corner and is nothing to avoid it except a major world catastrophe .... sisse
What say you that Fed has only raised rates twice in history when real economic growth was below 2%? Once, recession within one quarter, once within three quarters?
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #134,783
  • May 8, 2015 12:40pm May 8, 2015 12:40pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...oh I see... Well September meeting seems to be the one (for now). As you said, FED doesn't have much room for timing with only 2 more meetings before so definitively the June and July FOMC is the latest the FED has to clarify its position before markets start grunting on the lack of north. RMT is around the corner and is nothing to avoid it except a major world catastrophe .... sisse
Thank you for the clarification! Much appreciated!

So I would infer that in June/July meeting, with clear statement from FED, we can see EU dive to "parity" (sorry, I am not trying to ask for exact levels)? And in Sep FOMC when the hike is actually announced, or even before that, we can see EU rally? We trade expectation, and sell the news, right?

Why do you change your short term perspect to NEUTRAL though? I mean if the price rallys back to 1.138x level next week, it would make sense for me to short. And right now, the TA experts seem to believe EU will drop to 1.09x/1.078x level before going to 1.138x or slightly higher. I understand today's report is a mix. The market seems to have lost its direction. But when FA doesn't apply 100% here, TA takes over. What do you say?

Thank you!
  • #134,784
  • May 8, 2015 12:53pm May 8, 2015 12:53pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap it was the same quote but I copied the wrong text ...i already corrected the txt ... {quote} Why do you say that ???? Hikes in June were killed in March FOMC. We are playing summer hikes for now. sisse
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0NM4H420150501

Seems like March FOMC 'only' slashed the June hike, left dying but not killed....
  • #134,785
  • May 8, 2015 12:54pm May 8, 2015 12:54pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} What say you that Fed has only raised rates twice in history when real economic growth was below 2%? Once, recession within one quarter, once within three quarters?
I will be interested to see that source but still you need to put that in the context of inflation expectation and absolute economic output.

The main problem is 6 years of nearly 0 interest rates (which is historical under any measure) is a nuclear mix if you overstay ...we are in the very limit of it. Bonds are starting to cough and early signs of exaggerate and unsustainable low rates can quickly transform in a snowball of major proportions.

I don't think anybody is arguing about not hikes rates in the next 6 months. The FED is just offsetting slowly the initial reaction of taking low rates while the markets start slowly absorb it (llke they easily did it when QE was over)... the rest is just lots of BS and lobbing/pressure from the major bastards that want to ride one more leg on free money while the realign portfolios (they are stuffed in equities...since QE) ...basically a purely timing selfish reason ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,786
  • May 8, 2015 1:02pm May 8, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I will be interested to see that source but still you need to put that in the context of inflation expectation and absolute economic output. The main problem is 6 years of nearly 0 interest rates (which is historical under any measure) is a nuclear mix if you overstay ...we are in the very limit of it. Bonds are starting to cough and early signs of exaggerate and unsustainable low rates can quickly transform in a snowball of major proportions. I don't think anybody is arguing about not hikes rates in the next 6 months. The FED is just offsetting...
Thanks sisse, mostly agree. Wish you good weekend.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #134,787
  • May 8, 2015 1:13pm May 8, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} .... I would infer that in June/July meeting, with clear statement from FED, we can see EU dive to "parity" (sorry, I am not trying to ask for exact levels)? And in Sep FOMC when the hike is actually announced, or even before that, we can see EU rally? We trade expectation, and sell the news, right?

  1. First, you are looking at this conversation from the wrong angle. We are talking about FED hikes that would affect every single asset class in the world and you are trying to price an exact leg on one instruments (on the couple of hundred thousand that will be affected by this). The actual flows for that play we can chat with charts/TA when the plays come around.
  2. Second, you should break the pattern in thinking in straight lines/"recipes" when trying to swing trade. It doesn't work like that. We are chatting about hikes because of timing not because of pricing.
  3. Finally, you are making one the most common mistakes i see in these boards. Thinking that markets have only to states BUY OR SELL. Market and specially swings don't just transition from crazy sell to crazy long in one day. Thats for example why you always hear me calling macro direction from buy to neutral or sell to natural, etc etc in 99% of the cases, and never emotional trading of buy buy buy and "five minute later" (a FOMC, eCB, etc etc later) sell sell sell ...that is newbies/minions trading ... stay clear from it ...you will do a lot better than most here...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,788
  • May 8, 2015 1:31pm May 8, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} First, you are looking at this conversation from the wrong angle. We are talking about FED hikes that would affect every single asset class in the world and you are trying to price an exact leg on one instruments (on the couple of hundred thousand that will be affected by this). The actual flows for that play we can chat with charts/TA when the plays come around. Second, you should break the pattern in thinking in straight lines/"recipes" when trying to swing trade. It doesn't work like that. We are chatting about hikes because of timing...
Thank you very much!!
I understand the hike impacts on different asset classes. It is just I am rather new in actually trading with real money, instead of academic debates, so I plan to focus on FX first, in fact exclusively EU, to observe, to reflect... But I do pay attention to the talks around other asset classes as well, and try to learn from the best!
In actual trading, timing and other skills including TA, tactics, patience, etc etc, are all so important...I am miles away...like you said, there are hundreds and thousands of trading hours waiting for me.
Thank you Sisse! Have a nice weekend!
  • #134,789
  • May 8, 2015 1:31pm May 8, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Market and specially swings don't just transition from crazy sell to crazy long in one day. Thats for example why you always hear me calling macro direction from buy to neutral or sell to natural, etc etc in 99% of the cases, and never emotional trading of buy buy buy and "five minute later" (a FOMC, eCB, etc etc later) sell sell sell ...that is newbies/minions trading ... stay clear from it ...you will do a lot better than most here... sisse

lol...love it,very nice one sisse
  • #134,790
  • May 8, 2015 1:35pm May 8, 2015 1:35pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} First, you are looking at this conversation from the wrong angle. We are talking about FED hikes that would affect every single asset class in the world and you are trying to price an exact leg on one instruments (on the couple of hundred thousand that will be affected by this). The actual flows for that play we can chat with charts/TA when the plays come around. Second, you should break the pattern in thinking in straight lines/"recipes" when trying to swing trade. It doesn't work like that. We are chatting about hikes because of timing...
Well said. Have a great weekend Mr. Sisse and all
  • #134,791
  • May 8, 2015 1:49pm May 8, 2015 1:49pm
.... markets closing in a few minutes with a rather calm NFP day and the thread has a lot of lurkers but little conversations or questions so starting to pack after the bell...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,792
  • May 8, 2015 2:37pm May 8, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting sisse
.... markets closing in a few minutes with a rather calm NFP day and the thread has a lot of lurkers but little conversations or questions so starting to pack after the bell... sisse
Indeed the NFP is neither here nor there. My analysis shows that EU will be on a neutral side and will continue to range until the next big data to make a new leg. 1.13xx was the final phase of the run from mid April.
meanwhile, GU, GJ has unlock wide zone for the upside swing.
  • #134,793
  • May 8, 2015 5:46pm May 8, 2015 5:46pm
someone mind posting up an hourly for the day?
  • #134,794
  • May 8, 2015 5:50pm May 8, 2015 5:50pm
"
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I posted it over in Kill's thread for you. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post8252456
"

thank you...
  • #134,795
  • May 8, 2015 5:54pm May 8, 2015 5:54pm
Quoting Pharm0r
someone mind posting up an hourly for the day?
Since you weren't that specific on the hourly...I opted to flat out ignore your request and decided to pick a random pair...EURUSD and show you an H4 with the monthly overlay.

So there!

Na Na, Na Na........NA!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H4.png Size: 47 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,796
  • May 8, 2015 8:06pm May 8, 2015 8:06pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I will be interested to see that source but still you need to put that in the context of inflation expectation and absolute economic output. The main problem is 6 years of nearly 0 interest rates (which is historical under any measure) is a nuclear mix if you overstay ...we are in the very limit of it. Bonds are starting to cough and early signs of exaggerate and unsustainable low rates can quickly transform in a snowball of major proportions. I don't think anybody is arguing about not hikes rates in the next...
Dear Sissé

Could you define the expected process of the ''snowball'' ?
and why low rates for you as a negative impact on economy ?
do you mean that a bit of inflation it's a good thing ?

Thank's in advance for your time

Landsat
Logic will take you from A to B Imagination will take you anywhere (A.E)
  • #134,797
  • May 8, 2015 9:06pm May 8, 2015 9:06pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Since you weren't that specific on the hourly...I opted to flat out ignore your request and decided to pick a random pair...EURUSD and show you an H4 with the monthly overlay. So there! Na Na, Na Na........NA! {image}
haha. Dick head.

Jokes on you! EU was the one I wanted, and H4 showed me what I need.
  • #134,798
  • May 9, 2015 11:47am May 9, 2015 11:47am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} haha. Dick head. Jokes on you! EU was the one I wanted, and H4 showed me what I need.
I kinda figured....just posted the H4 because it was an easier read than the hourly would be. (Way easier than the 5s)

Here's another to have a look at when considering your position on EURO trades next week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EGH4.png Size: 42 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,799
  • May 9, 2015 4:52pm May 9, 2015 4:52pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I kinda figured....just posted the H4 because it was an easier read than the hourly would be. (Way easier than the 5s) Here's another to have a look at when considering your position on EURO trades next week. {image}
Been reading your secret thread- liking these layover candles.

That candle before the blue- that a doji?
  • #134,800
  • May 9, 2015 4:52pm May 9, 2015 4:52pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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