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NZD/USD

  • #9,261
  • Edited 12:09pm May 7, 2015 11:27am | Edited 12:09pm
Quoting pilottrader
{quote} Yes.
Think it's too late for me to get in on this train? I hate getting in half way through the move though. Maybe I'll enter on the break of April's low. That seems logical I suppose
  • #9,262
  • May 7, 2015 1:06pm May 7, 2015 1:06pm
Quoting AVLtrader
{quote} Think it's too late for me to get in on this train? I hate getting in half way through the move though. Maybe I'll enter on the break of April's low. That seems logical I suppose
I hate that too. I would wait and see what happens at .7420 and .7390.
Mark
  • #9,263
  • Edited 5:47pm May 7, 2015 5:16pm | Edited 5:47pm
Attached Image

The peak seems to be created by US Trade Balance.
  • #9,264
  • Edited 2:02am May 8, 2015 12:21am | Edited 2:02am
Will today Non-farm payrolls act like 5Dec2014 or 3Oct2014 (based on their own previous month data set) ?
But I do hope it would be similar to 7Feb2014 (NZD/USD was going up afterwards).
******
Today USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m have the case similar to 3Oct2014.
******
Have a nice weekend!
  • #9,265
  • May 8, 2015 5:49am May 8, 2015 5:49am
Exactly the way it was anticipated...
NZDUSD might remain weak towards testing sub-0.7400 support area, marked by the lower trend-line support of a short-term ascending trend-channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily08052015.png Size: 12 KB
  • #9,266
  • May 8, 2015 5:50am May 8, 2015 5:50am
IMHO, NZDUSD could trigger considerable up-move on the break of likely falling wedge formation.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4.png Size: 26 KB
  • #9,267
  • Edited 2:35pm May 8, 2015 2:03pm | Edited 2:35pm
Wednesday, USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

For the similar data set (expected value, previous value and their difference),
most are lower-than-expected in order to pull NZD/USD higher (May2014 and May2012).
if the same as the expected, change a bit only (Aug2013).
if higher-than-expected, a big drop (Apr2012).

But very strange, data in May2012, May2013 and May2014 all are 0.1.
******
Thursday, NZD Retail Sales q/q

For data set in 14May2014 and 14May2013, even the data is lower as 0.7% and 0.5% respectively,
although a bit drop before Asian session,
NZD/USD move upwards for the whole Asian session.
******
  • #9,268
  • May 8, 2015 6:01pm May 8, 2015 6:01pm
Quoting Fx_Anil
IMHO, NZDUSD could trigger considerable up-move on the break of likely falling wedge formation. {image}
I see great resistance at .7550 area, and have an extra limit sell there if we get a move up on Monday. .7420 and .7390 are not strong enough to hold, and I think we're headed to try .71 again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd05_08.png Size: 65 KB
Mark
  • #9,269
  • May 10, 2015 2:11pm May 10, 2015 2:11pm
ANZ says RBNZ will cut rates in both June and July


ANZ New Zealand chief economist Cameron Bagrie:

  1. Our monthly inflation gauge soft for April
  2. The sleeping inflation dragon is more like sleeping beauty
  3. OCR to be cut in June and July

Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #9,270
  • May 10, 2015 2:36pm May 10, 2015 2:36pm
Quoting pilottrader
{quote} I see great resistance at .7550 area, and have an extra limit sell there if we get a move up on Monday. .7420 and .7390 are not strong enough to hold, and I think we're headed to try .71 again. {image}
I agree with you here pilottrader furthermore a break of 71.85 will send this pair to mid 60's
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #9,271
  • May 10, 2015 5:07pm May 10, 2015 5:07pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
{quote} I agree with you here pilottrader furthermore a break of 71.85 will send this pair to mid 60's
Ah man, how great would that be!
Mark
  • #9,272
  • May 10, 2015 5:29pm May 10, 2015 5:29pm
That down gap screwed my order. you think there will be a opportunity for the price to go back to 4570ish?
  • #9,273
  • May 10, 2015 9:16pm May 10, 2015 9:16pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
ANZ says RBNZ will cut rates in both June and July ANZ New Zealand chief economist Cameron Bagrie: Our monthly inflation gauge soft for April The sleeping inflation dragon is more like sleeping beauty OCR to be cut in June and July
Seems strange that a currency could take such a big hit from a comment by a bank's economist.
  • #9,274
  • May 10, 2015 9:20pm May 10, 2015 9:20pm
Quoting pilottrader
{quote} I see great resistance at .7550 area, and have an extra limit sell there if we get a move up on Monday. .7420 and .7390 are not strong enough to hold, and I think we're headed to try .71 again. {image}
Agreed that the failure to break 0.7550, encompassing 100-day SMA, could pullback the NZDUSD towards 0.7100 mark again.
  • #9,275
  • May 10, 2015 10:02pm May 10, 2015 10:02pm
Quoting pilottrader
{quote} I hate that too. I would wait and see what happens at .7420 and .7390.
Sell stop triggered at 7380 Thanks for the response
  • #9,276
  • May 11, 2015 4:56am May 11, 2015 4:56am
Quoting AVLtrader
{quote} Sell stop triggered at 7380 Thanks for the response

Although seems to have confirmed a break below a short-term ascending trend-channel but caution is warranted if in case reverses from 0.7315-10 support area...
  • #9,277
  • May 11, 2015 6:27am May 11, 2015 6:27am
nzdcad looks juicy
  • #9,278
  • May 11, 2015 9:58am May 11, 2015 9:58am
Quoting pilottrader
{quote} Ah man, how great would that be!

first target reached cheers mark
Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered
  • #9,279
  • May 11, 2015 1:38pm May 11, 2015 1:38pm
Quoting blue_z_zz
{quote} first target reached cheers mark
Nicely played. I may dump some here and ride the rest hopefully to a test of .72!
Mark
  • #9,280
  • May 11, 2015 10:36pm May 11, 2015 10:36pm
NZDUSD confirms break below a short-term ascending trend-channel and now seems vulnerable to retest recent closing lows support near 0.7260-50 area.
Would turn cautious only once it moves back above 0.7400 mark support break point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDDaily12052015.png Size: 6 KB
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