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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,761
  • May 8, 2015 2:30am May 8, 2015 2:30am
Quoting Pharm0r
1209 is a big fucking number- one of the biggest. I've got it showing on 3 fibs now. The all time, and the most recent swing as a LM. Do you guys believe in coincidence?
Which one? Thanks
  • #134,762
  • May 8, 2015 5:30am May 8, 2015 5:30am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Which one? Thanks
1.10656/1.13912

H4

Bears got a valid cross last night in the last 15 minutes.
  • #134,763
  • May 8, 2015 7:08am May 8, 2015 7:08am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and thats it. They made it easier to trade for NFP. Right on time for NY. Clearing one and only intraday target a couple of ticks above 1.127x. Nothing to see until the London fix. Failure to take 1.127x will put the euro to sleep inside of the chop zone until NFP.... sisse
Any one can help interpret this statement by sisse?
  • #134,764
  • May 8, 2015 7:21am May 8, 2015 7:21am
...and here we go again for a new NFP. Expecting an inline with expectations reports (which is positive) but today the key to track is the revision number. If the last number wasn't that bad and the last the dollar move was overdone will see a quick reaction.

On the Fundamental side:

  1. The only thing to track is the latest numbers were a normal down tick in the long term distribution or if the US numbers are actually getting worst. An inline positive number with no revision will be enough to put as back in the normal track and therefore confirm the expectations for Hikes in the Summer.
  2. Only an undershot with a big miss will bring shockwaves and will extend the selloff in dollar and triggering a reshuffle of positions in equities.

On the Technical side:

  1. Expecting an inline with expectation that will confirm a wide range in the euro until later this month as market clean longs from the yearly lows. (1.138x/1.098x)
  2. Only a decent undershoot will crack the highs and open the 1.15xx handle with a strong intermediate stop at the very strong 1.142x.

For the Actual flow:

  1. Inline without revision or a slightly lower for the direct play 1.122x to the highs 1.137x with intermediate stop at the key 1.127x (which is flip zone on the major range too). An undershoot, its the same play but it will unlock the highs and the 1.142x target and beyond.
  2. A decent overshoot or a major revision (good chances of one), will caught a lot of bulls in the wrong foot and open first mini swing target 1.098x in a relatively fast move.

GL all....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,765
  • May 8, 2015 7:24am May 8, 2015 7:24am
Pendings still starting @ 1015 and below.
  • #134,766
  • May 8, 2015 7:33am May 8, 2015 7:33am
...Slightly miss on the headline and lower on the revision. NY will finish the day....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,767
  • May 8, 2015 7:53am May 8, 2015 7:53am
Quoting sisse
...Slightly miss on the headline and lower on the revision. NY will finish the day.... sisse
With this current NFP number, is June hike still on the table and executed on it? or waiting for June NFP? RMT is kept on the game starting mid/end May?
  • #134,768
  • Edited 10:55am May 8, 2015 7:54am | Edited 10:55am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I think i just went cross-eyed. Haha, I can't follow so many at once. I'm an idiot waiting for it to rain. When I have a close or a touch I can go from there. "areas" of s & d just confuse me and clutter my charts. For example on your charts, 1.13691 and the red line we are at now (above the black 13325) is what my eyes are immediately drawn to, because of the exact touches. Often, after an exact touch one can trade the direction with the stop being a pip or 10 above the touch, perhaps a close needed instead. I...
This here's why I put those red and blue dots (London and NY opening ranges) on my chart. So I won't be tempted to get on the wrong side of them.
(Edits since the first pic in original post were time lapse pics of the action around them.
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  • #134,769
  • May 8, 2015 7:59am May 8, 2015 7:59am
Quoting sisse
...
For the Actual flow:

  1. Inline without revision or a slightly lower [check] for the direct play 1.122x [check] to the highs 1.137x [in play] with intermediate stop at the key 1.127x [check] ....

...and that was simple and easy. 1.127x done.... nothing to see till the London close.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,770
  • May 8, 2015 8:08am May 8, 2015 8:08am
"
Quoting MissPips
{quote} This here's why I put those the red and blue dots (London and NY opening ranges) on my chart. So I won't be tempted to get on the wrong side of them. {image}
"
Good day missPips...i do like to have that indi..that draws london and newyork open.thanks in advance..........
  • #134,771
  • May 8, 2015 8:09am May 8, 2015 8:09am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} This here's why I put those the red and blue dots (London and NY opening ranges) on my chart. So I won't be tempted to get on the wrong side of them. {image}
Great point. Thanks!
  • #134,772
  • May 8, 2015 8:26am May 8, 2015 8:26am
Quoting carbonado
"{quote}" Good day missPips...i do like to have that indi..that draws london and newyork open.thanks in advance..........

I posted it over in Kill's thread for you. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post8252456
  • #134,773
  • May 8, 2015 10:24am May 8, 2015 10:24am
Quoting sisse
On the Fundamental side:

  1. ... were a normal down tick in the long term distribution .... An inline positive number with no revision will be enough to put as back in the normal track ...expectations for Hikes in the Summer.[in play]

Quote
On the Technical side:

  1. Expecting an inline with expectation that will confirm a wide range in the euro until later this month as market clean longs from the yearly lows. (1.138x/1.098x) [check][in play]

Quote
For the Actual flow:

  1. Inline without revision or a slightly lower [check] for the direct play 1.122x [check] to the highs 1.137x [in play] with intermediate stop at the key 1.127x [check] ....


Day is set to be over in nothingness with Europe going home. Not much to do at these levels, neither make sense holding remaining intraday position over the weekend so pretty much killing them before NY bell if we haven't taken 1.127x by then (looks harder by the minute)

Tracking the never ending this year 1.127x for the roll but more importantly after the latest developments euro looks set for the wide range play until the end of May and may even extend as far as the FOMC in June if US numbers start slowly going to back to the positive trends:

  1. CHANGING SHORT TERM (dailies/weeklies) euro outlook [from late April] from SELL to NEUTRAL
  2. No changes in the MID TERM(week/months) euro outlook [from January] of STRONG SELL .

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,774
  • May 8, 2015 10:36am May 8, 2015 10:36am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} {quote} Day is set to be over in nothingness with Europe going home. Not much to do at these levels, neither make sense holding remaining intraday position over the weekend so pretty much killing them before NY bell if we haven't taken 1.127x by then (looks harder by the minute) Tracking the never ending this year 1.127x for the roll but more importantly after the latest developments euro looks set for the wide range play until the end of May and may even extend as far as the FOMC in June if US numbers start slowly going to back...
Thank you sir
  • #134,775
  • May 8, 2015 10:48am May 8, 2015 10:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and that was it for longs in my case. Clearing 1.070x remaining swing longs before NY and actively looking for the risk play short swing (...as Hatch would make fun of you know who ...a "reverso" in play). More importantly, changing short term euro outlook from first week of April: CHANGING SHORT TERM (dailies/weeklies) euro outlook [from 1st week April] from NEUTRAL to SELL No changes in the MID TERM(week/months) euro outlook [from January] of STRONG SELL. {quote} sisse
Sir from when you post this CHANGING SHORT TERM (dailies/weeklies) euro outlook [from 1st week April] from NEUTRAL to SELL price went up from 1.0750 to 1.1400.
How can this be from NEUTRAL to SELL...
  • #134,776
  • Edited 11:55am May 8, 2015 11:40am | Edited 11:55am
Quoting Jure86
{quote} Sir from when you post this CHANGING SHORT TERM (dailies/weeklies) euro outlook [from 1st week April] from NEUTRAL to SELL price went up from 1.0750 to 1.1400. How can this be from NEUTRAL to SELL...
You mean this one ?

Quoting sisse
...
CHANGING SHORT TERM (dailies/weeklies) euro outlook [from 1st week April] fromNEUTRAL to SELL
...
I think you are forgetting to read what happened in between which is the correction up that no only I didn't call it on time until we took the 1.09x handle (when I swapped to the long side to 1.121x for the Monthly roll) but I also got caught in the wrong side (shorts from 1.078x) in the initial break up to 1.084x as I posted live.

You need to watch out, you cannot blindly follow me or anybody if you are not tracking you own charts and following the live conversations and markets because I don't always chew or dumb down every bit I write...

I will walk you though my posts only this time but I would highly recommend you to engage in a conversation LIVE, leeching or blindly following without context (like some "experts" recommend in FF") wont lead you anywhere in trading ....

 

  1. Quoting sisse
    {quote} ....I also underestimated the last intraday leg up by a mile here. Tracking 1.087x for the weekly roll which is also far from the 1.078x that I was expecting ...
  2. Quoting sisse
    .. Got caught in the intraday flow with NY opening range on the breach 1.078x, should (woulda coulda) have cleared on the ...now stops are naked and in "miracle mode" ...
  3. ​
    Quoting sisse
    In my case, I still have the strong after taste of swapping those longs from the bottom to play the minion short mini wave last week instead of sitting tight and riding the main swing...nothing worst than being right, and having to watch the market rally non stop without you ...that was very amateurish....
  4. Quoting sisse
    ....1.097x is the only level to track... direct trade to 1.112x for/with the FOMC later. Finally, an irrelevant number will let us in nothing to see mode until NY reacts on the equities front before the FOMC. GL sisse
  5. Quoting sisse
    For the actual flows ... 1.112x only level to track for the daily close for a simple play to 1.121x with extension (exhaustion leg) to 1.128x.
  6. ...you can track the last two legs calling the high of the week 2 days ago at 1.138x handle and the NFP play today ...so there you have have it 80% of the range you are talking about...

I hope it helps and answer you question.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,777
  • May 8, 2015 11:47am May 8, 2015 11:47am
No, I mean this one:
(http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post8218723)
CHANGING SHORT TERM (dailies/weeklies) euro outlook [from 1st week April] fromNEUTRAL to SELL
  • #134,778
  • May 8, 2015 11:50am May 8, 2015 11:50am
Quoting sisse
...and here we go again for a new NFP. Expecting an inline with expectations reports (which is positive) but today the key to track is the revision number. If the last number wasn't that bad and the last the dollar move was overdone will see a quick reaction. On the Fundamental side: The only thing to track is the latest numbers were a normal down tick in the long term distribution or if the US numbers are actually getting worst. An inline positive number with no revision will be enough to put as back in the normal track and therefore confirm...

Sisse, I see you are still leaning towards a June hike. Is my understanding correct?
Personally I am in the June hike camp. But the big boys all cry for a Sep hike. I really wonder how truthful they are.

Would highly appreciate your answers. Thank you!
  • #134,779
  • May 8, 2015 11:58am May 8, 2015 11:58am
Quoting Jure86
No, I mean this one: (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...23#post8218723) CHANGING SHORT TERM (dailies/weeklies) euro outlook [from 1st week April] fromNEUTRAL to SELL
Yeap it was the same quote but I copied the wrong text ...i already corrected the txt ...

Quoting Shunyi
{quote} Sisse, I see you are still leaning towards a June hike. Is my understanding correct? Personally I am in the June hike camp. But the big boys all cry for a Sep hike. I really wonder how truthful they are. Would highly appreciate your answers. Thank you!
Why do you say that ????

Hikes in June were killed in March FOMC. We are playing summer hikes for now.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,780
  • May 8, 2015 12:13pm May 8, 2015 12:13pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yeap it was the same quote but I copied the wrong text ...i already corrected the txt ... {quote} Why do you say that ???? Hikes in June were killed in March FOMC. We are playing summer hikes for now. sisse
Ah, I see. I think I confused the time reference here. I thought Summer Hike means June/July, cos for me Sep is Fall you know. Sorry, my bad!
So how does it work in fact? Annoucement of hike for Sep will be in June/July meeting? July meeting doesn't have a press conference, so June FOMC?
Or the hike will be announced in Sep FOMC instead?

Thank you!
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