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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,901
  • May 7, 2015 4:32pm May 7, 2015 4:32pm
Quoting Jeremy Oak
{quote} Gambling.. I suck at doing that. I ALWAYS get burned
its minimal. so im not worried about it considering what the return would be
  • #10,902
  • May 7, 2015 4:40pm May 7, 2015 4:40pm
I guess D. P. 185.40.....ok....holding 218 pips for more thanks to my buddy.....I think I know how long to hold this baby....
  • #10,903
  • May 7, 2015 9:39pm May 7, 2015 9:39pm
http://www.actionforex.com/action-in...bpjpy-outlook/

This gets updated daily after it is posted weekly, or at least revisited by an analyst daily. Often the forecast stays stable. That is one reason i respect and follow actionforex's analyses. Particularly for GPB JPY.

They are longer-term analysts who are often correct - if you wait long enough at least you have a destination you can trust, pretty much, and a likely opposite direction point.

1. it gives a sense of longer term direction and keeps me in trades on this volatile free-wheeling pair.

Re-reading their thinking these days kept me from hedging my GBP JPY buys and kept me adding buys at higher levels even through some drops.

I knew to trust actionforex. Now I do have a bit of a hedge and ... speculate that 185.211 (the high on my platform) would be termed by actionforex a 'decisive break,' of the important resistance where i placed the sell limits - which would mean a trip through the highs, eventually, 189.70. So, I am in for a while with a lot of small lot longs, and a few sells at 184.99.

I wouldn't have decent judgment without having kept in mind the repetitious Action Insight from actionforex.

2. AF analysts explain decisions in detail using Elliot Wave and Ichimoku and they offer trade ideas. GBP JPY is seldom included in the trade ideas section but sometimes it is.

3. actionforex has some good e-books that explain in detail ichimoku and i have learned neat ideas from them - one simple one is that

Price is attracted to the kijun sen like a rubberband; it represents equilibrium and is a low risk entry or a solid stop loss.
  • #10,904
  • May 7, 2015 10:34pm May 7, 2015 10:34pm
thanks for posting that Greenstar
I'm tossin the rules and sellin....the run up there was way too fakey....so I sold the crap out of 185.75
  • #10,905
  • May 7, 2015 10:57pm May 7, 2015 10:57pm
Quoting AllyB
what the heck up 192 pips in 5 minutes course I wasn't in it
Hey Ally, It was sheer luck that I closed my shorts hours before that price explosion. 68 pips so far shorting the euro. Think I will close it before the NFP. Will attempt to contain risk as much as I can from now.

Selling Sterling now against the dollar, too overdone. 1.5460
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,906
  • May 7, 2015 11:04pm May 7, 2015 11:04pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
thanks for posting that Greenstar I'm tossin the rules and sellin....the run up there was way too fakey....so I sold the crap out of 185.75
GU held the 1.55 so I'm with you on that one. Let's see People should be going crazy on the longs after last night's results. Should be a perfect time to drop to 1.505/1.493 and cut some heads off, but as I said we'll see..

The main reason for this trade is that we have a double top at 1.5498 today and on 29.04
  • #10,907
  • Edited 11:49pm May 7, 2015 11:19pm | Edited 11:49pm
pound is scaring the hell out of me right now. Got out of my previous short with 6 whole pips. What a waste. Anyways got short cadjpy at 99.09 recently. Also am holding a eurusd short that I got back into a few hours ago. Thinking of hold it till the news as long as u have about 40 pips room in it still if not I'm out of it.
  • #10,908
  • May 7, 2015 11:38pm May 7, 2015 11:38pm
Quoting alexpi
{quote} GU held the 1.55 so I'm with you on that one. Let's see People should be going crazy on the longs after last night's results. Should be a perfect time to drop to 1.505/1.493 and cut some heads off, but as I said we'll see.. The main reason for this trade is that we have a double top at 1.5498 today and on 29.04
Out for now, wrong is wrong
  • #10,909
  • May 7, 2015 11:42pm May 7, 2015 11:42pm
and a double top above the 185.40 D P.......sellin it again at 185.92
  • #10,910
  • May 7, 2015 11:51pm May 7, 2015 11:51pm
i dont know. this thing is on a mission. imo that gap still has to close though
  • #10,911
  • Edited May 8, 2015 12:21am May 7, 2015 11:54pm | Edited May 8, 2015 12:21am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
and a double top above the 185.40 D P.......sellin it again at 185.92
Ballsy

Edit: Double top on 1M, let's see if it confirms. In if it does

Edit2: Shorting from .84
  • #10,912
  • May 8, 2015 12:23am May 8, 2015 12:23am
it's the D P I'm trading off....185.44
  • #10,913
  • Edited 1:55am May 8, 2015 12:24am | Edited 1:55am
DP could still go positive, reason why I'm being careful and looking for other confirmations

Edit: this looks shaky, out for now. Looking for a retest of 186 to maybe short again

Edit2: This is the scenario I'm looking for right now, though it's not out of the question that we get a break of 186 and drop thereafter (edit: or just drop straight down)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYM15.png Size: 23 KB
  • #10,914
  • May 8, 2015 2:06am May 8, 2015 2:06am
Good morning all,

With election results almost in in UK and Conservatives going for a majority, I see pound getting stronger. I would not short here at this point, probably would stay out for a while before the dust settle. UK economy did well under Conservatives and now with them coming in majority they can push for the reforms they were talking about, so my opinion, pound will go up for a while.

What effect it will have on Euro, still needs to reflect on that, your thoughts guys!

Whatever you do trade safe, there is always another day!
  • #10,915
  • Edited 2:43am May 8, 2015 2:09am | Edited 2:43am
Quoting workingforex
Good morning all, With election results almost in in UK and Conservatives going for a majority, I see pound getting stronger. I would not short here at this point, probably would stay out for a while before the dust settle. UK economy did well under Conservatives and now with them coming in majority they can push for the reforms they were talking about, so my opinion, pound will go up for a while. What effect it will have on Euro, still needs to reflect on that, your thoughts guys! Whatever you do trade safe, there is always another day!...
Good morning, completely agree that we could be in for a trend reversal on GU in the coming months. Still, the market will do what the market does, which is clearing the stops of fundamentalists longing straight out of the gate, not realizing that we're in for a marathon rather than a sprint.

We could just go straight up, but I'd much rather see and it would be much more normal to have a break of 1.555 followed by a drop to 1.492/6 or 1.505/6 and then new movement up. Trap the bulls, trap the bears, make a killing in the process. An average quarter for MMs Respectively, same movements for Geppy

Edit: Short from 185.8 again
  • #10,916
  • May 8, 2015 3:37am May 8, 2015 3:37am
Quoting Gbp/jpy
thanks for posting that Greenstar I'm tossin the rules and sellin....the run up there was way too fakey....so I sold the crap out of 185.75

I was thinking this, but its still holding...
  • #10,917
  • Edited 4:28am May 8, 2015 4:09am | Edited 4:28am
Still reading it as bearish, but approaching NFP might push me to close soon and wait for the storm to pass. As always, better to miss 100-200 pips profit than get a 50-pip gap loss and feel like hitting my head against a wall for keeping a position through a major news event...!

Decision time - if 185.4 is resistance now I'm staying in for another hour and then out no matter where price is
  • #10,918
  • May 8, 2015 4:55am May 8, 2015 4:55am
Quoting alexpi
Still reading it as bearish, but approaching NFP might push me to close soon and wait for the storm to pass. As always, better to miss 100-200 pips profit than get a 50-pip gap loss and feel like hitting my head against a wall for keeping a position through a major news event...! Decision time - if 185.4 is resistance now I'm staying in for another hour and then out no matter where price is

Hi Alexpi,

I try to avoid the news events, and the NFP stings me a lot so i've learnt to not trade. One question though, and this is a generic one that I am struggling to put a pattern to.

US data, assuming that its positive drives dollar up, how does US data effect this pair? is it because it is GBP weakening on GU pair that causes weakness in GJ too?

I struggle with fundamentals..
  • #10,919
  • Edited 6:01am May 8, 2015 5:47am | Edited 6:01am
Quoting Talzus
{quote} Hi Alexpi, I try to avoid the news events, and the NFP stings me a lot so i've learnt to not trade. One question though, and this is a generic one that I am struggling to put a pattern to. US data, assuming that its positive drives dollar up, how does US data effect this pair? is it because it is GBP weakening on GU pair that causes weakness in GJ too? I struggle with fundamentals..
Regretfully there is no straight answer. That's the reason why I don't trade major news events (UK bank rate votes, FOMC statement, US rates, NFP, Japan rates, Japan central bank press releases to name the most important ones) either. Fundamentally, as you know, when Japan's economy is strong, yen rises and GJ falls and when Japan's economy is weak you get the opposite. At the same time when GB economy is strong, GJ rises and the opposite is true when GB economy is weak.

Fundamentally, there is an assumption that under normal conditions news for US economy have a strong inverse correlation compared to Japan's economy, while at the same being positively correlated to UK economy

The thing is that news from Japan tend to not influence the pair that much, unless it's bank rates or QE news, so fundamental traders and banks pull from the assumption above and make decisions based on that.

Lately though there has been a switch as good US news mean that US is closer to rate hike and good news for UK mean UK is closer to rate hike so the usual correlation has changed in the last 4-6 months.

Hope this gives you at least a little more clarity.

Sorry I can't be more specific, but it's beyond the scope of a forum post to explain the macroeconomic factors influencing price movement at any time.

Edit: I'm out as I said earlier btw
  • #10,920
  • May 8, 2015 6:07am May 8, 2015 6:07am
Quoting alexpi
{quote} Regretfully there is no straight answer. That's the reason why I don't trade major news events (UK bank rate votes, FOMC statement, US rates, NFP, Japan rates, Japan central bank press releases to name the most important ones) either. Fundamentally, as you know, when Japan's economy is strong, yen rises and GJ falls and when Japan's economy is weak you get the opposite. At the same time when GB economy is strong, GJ rises and the opposite is true when GB economy is weak. Fundamentally, there is an assumption that under normal conditions...

Thank you Alexpi; Yes, That's fine. I just needed a basic understanding to get rid of the confusion. It tends to do the opposite what I expect, I then change what I expect and it does the opposite still... So, I'm lost as far as fundamentals go..

Still to my charts, charts don't lie
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