AUD/USD

Hopefully the RBA statement this morning mentions that rate easing is not off the cards completely. I think removing that statement from Tuesday's rate announcement was an oversight by Glenn Stevens.

Hi Vorex, what's your view toward AUD now?

My short loss has been hit by a pip lower!
I'm still bullish AUD, thinking of buying it at current price.

Money Markets and Bond Yields

The Reserve Bank Board reduced the cash rate target to 2 per cent at its May meeting. Yields on money market instruments imply some probability of a further reduction in the cash rate later in the year (Graph 4.1).

Rates on bank bills and certificates of deposit have steadily declined over recent months, reflecting both further monetary easing, and a narrowing of the spreads between bank bills and overnight indexed swaps (OIS) by around 15 basis points since their peak late last year

The daily EMA50 at .7820, so .7800 might see a bounce, but we're headed to .7500.

Buying Aud/usd now, fibo 161.8, sma300 and end of abcd 60min TF, colours now too on 4hr chart.

TP1 sma200 r/r 1:1

What does monetary policy statement says, any hint about more rate easing....?
Or rate hike is expected?

why are people selling?? just look at price action on the daily

this is a buy, target 0.82-0.83

Take profit almost hit, close 80% and let the rest ride to previous high or next pivot.

Amend TP to 7975 and flip the trade to sell with new SL@8080 and TP tbd after new sell trade set-up triggered and held.

Cheers and trade well.....

80% closed and rest left on BE for new high... see what happens.

GL

RBA Notes

https://blu179.mail.live.com/ol/clear.gif


*DJ RBA: Lowers End-2016 CPI Forecast to 2%-3% From 2.25%-3.25%
*DJ RBA: Unemployment To Peak At 6.5% by Mid-2016; Elevated For Longer
*DJ RBA: GDP To Remain Weak For Longer Than Expected
*DJ RBA: A$ Offering Less Assistance To Economic Recovery
*DJ RBA: "Significant" Uncertainty Surrounding Non-Mining Investment
*DJ RBA: A$ Offering Less Assistance To Economic Recovery
*DJ RBA: "Significant" Uncertainty Surrounding Non-Mining Investment
*DJ RBA: GDP To Remain Weak For Longer Than Expected
*DJ RBA: Lowers End-2016 CPI Forecast to 2%-3% From 2.25%-3.25%
*DJ RBA: Unemployment To Peak At 6.5% by Mid-2016; Elevated For Longer
*DJ RBA Says Will "Adjust Policy As Needed" To Foster Growth
*DJ RBA: Lowers GDP End-2015 Forecast to 2.5% From 2.75%
*DJ RBA: Lowers GDP End-2016 Forecast to 3.25% From 3.5%
*DJ RBA: Lowers End-2016 CPI Forecast to 2%-3% From 2.25%-3.25%
*DJ RBA: Lowers GDP End-2015 Forecast to 2.5% From 2.75%
*DJ RBA: Lowers GDP End-2016 Forecast to 3.25% From 3.5%
*DJ RBA: Revises Lower Headline CPI, Core CPI Forecasts June 2016-June 2017
*DJ Australia RBA: Revises Lower All GDP Forecasts Out To Mid-2017
*DJ RBA Says Will "Adjust Policy As Needed" To Foster Growth
*DJ Australia RBA: Revises Lower All GDP Forecasts Out To Mid-2017
*DJ RBA: Revises Lower Headline CPI, Core CPI Forecasts June 2016-June 2017

Here is some reading for NFP. Copy and Pasted. Unable to supply source due to confidentiality . Well worth reading.

Average Hourly Earnings m/m (Apr): Forecasts are for a marginal decline in April from the previous month’s 0.3% to 0.2%
- With a tightening workforce having seen employment gains from the April PMI numbers reaching 10 month highs in the composite, coupled with improved employment wages over the first quarter, we expect the trend to continue and with a possible above forecast result.

Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr): Following last month’s collapse from 264K to 126K, forecasts are for a significant recovery, up to 224K.
- With a review of April initial jobless claims trends, contrary to the recent ADP number, showing a shortfall from the forecasted number, we would expect NFP numbers to be more aligned with forecast with what would be considered significantly more positive than this week’s ADP data.
- As we have seen of late, really since the FOMC gave more indication as to the parameters considered for rate rises, volatility in the US Dollar as a result of NFP data and lead indicators to the NFP data can be quite considerable.

Participation Rate (Apr): No f0recast while March’s rate was 62.7%, 0.1% below February data.
- While not a key driver for the Dollar, as focus remains on NFP data, any material deterioration in the participation rate would raise questions over the unemployment rate while stable unemployment numbers with a sizeable increase in participation rate would be a positive from an employment number perspective. We don’t envisage any material change to the existing participation rate of 62.7%

Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr): In line with Nonfarm Payrolls, forecasts are for a recovery to 220K, from the previous month’s sizeable fall to 129K
- We would categorize the performance of private nonfarm payrolls in tune with that of NFP data.

Unemployment Rate (Apr): With the forecasts for improved NFP data, forecasts are for the unemployment rate to drop 0.1% to 5.4%.
- In line with our views on NFP data and recent jobless claims data, a small improvement in the unemployment rate is appropriate as forecasted.
- March’s unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5% having had the influence of weak NFP data and weaker initial jobless claims data relative to April with the 4 week average falling just above 300K in mid march to the current 279.5K level.

With the EUR/USD currently sitting at $1.12381, positive data is likely to drive the Dollar through the first support level towards $1.1146 before the markets begin considering a possible over reaction to earlier ADP data and begin to reconsider the sharp turn around to the US economy in the second quarter as a more likely possibility, which has currently been diluted considerably.
While not wishing to consider the possibility of negative data, any data in line with or even below the 200K level for NFP will be viewed negatively and will raise further red flags on the weakened US economy as we approach the middle of the second quarter. Downside for the Dollar could see the EUR/USD test 1.13 levels once more with a possible longer EUR strengthening to 1.14 levels as the markets being to consider the Eurozone economy stronger than that of the US.

Looking sell Position with small StopLoss and minimum 100 pip profit
attention to AO signals for entry

Monthly chart look very nice for long, sma200, end of abcd, fibo and Power for long

Seems that the AUDUSD struggles to break descending trend-line, currently near 0.7920.

What is the pair trying to show here?

Showing a bulltrap for 30 mins? Keeping price high to collect bids then spasm move down. Or just relief from top to collect more orders for higher (7993 is my max before deep correction down).

Looks like a stop hunt ... nailed my sl on the pip and dropped back under H1 TL ... lol ... now back in with tight SL.