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vsa with Malcolm

  • #26,741
  • May 5, 2015 6:06pm May 5, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting rbumbalough
Here's my trade for the day, a long EU after fade into prior support/demand zone, a classic NS and Basic Test bar on the 15M. This silly Lite-Forex broker provides badly mangled data feeds to it's suckers (Er, I mean customers.) I use these shyster's bucket shop because they offer nano penny per pip accounts for really bad traders like me who never seem to learn from their mistakes which can be opened for 20 or 30 bucks. Anyway, here's the chart. The volume data is bogus, but it's good enough for some trades. {image}
That's a dangerous time to trade (London's out, N.Y. closing down), especially from a medium term timeframe, without looking at smaller timeframe. E/U was at it's balance point for the day and big moves passed (true, anything can happen anytime). The high volume Upthrust was the last candle of note on the 15m really, and it showed price rejection from that level. Trend was up though and price did find support. Just giving you pointers, your analysis could have been spot on. Also, I see you risked more than you were willing to receive, try for 1:1 at minimum, I usually don't go for less than 4:1, but my trades are peculiar.
  • #26,742
  • May 5, 2015 9:33pm May 5, 2015 9:33pm
Bump.

Quoting hieronymus
{quote} That's a dangerous time to trade (London's out, N.Y. closing down), especially from a medium term timeframe, without looking at smaller timeframe. E/U was at it's balance point for the day and big moves passed (true, anything can happen anytime). The high volume Upthrust was the last candle of note on the 15m really, and it showed price rejection from that level. Trend was up though and price did find support. Just giving you pointers, your analysis could have been spot on. Also, I see you risked more than you were willing to receive, try...
Sir, you're absolutely right. My silly little trade plan forbids opening positions during times of low liquidity. The plan also allows for exceptions due to training exercises. I've many of the psychological problems that cause traders to crash their accounts. Among them are tending to move stops to allow for "more volatility" and an irrational fear of volatility. One way to deal with such issues is exposure. Being one's own therapist requires being mindful of their mental states and taking appropriate corrective action. With exposure technique one starts by dunking their toe into the cold water and slowly immersing the rest of their corpulent presence as they acclimate to the unpleasant stimulus. Coupling with gradual acclimation, one may use the swish method associated with mindful meditation. Swish is merely training one's imagination to exchange a visualized pleasant emotional state with an actually occurring undesirable emotion upon triggering a signal like saying a special phrase or snapping one's fingers. To facilitate correcting my psychological trading issues, I needed a low volatility time period wherein rate would stay within a tight range and bounce about between stop loss and take profit while I watched and attempted to practice exposure and swish.

Although I've been messing with FX trading for six years, I've been unprofitable due to my many mental errors. (This is not to say VSA doesn't work. It does, and very well regardless of whether it's a modeling technique that enables traders to understand what and how the composite operator manipulates price or actually expresses the ontological reality of markets; all my foibles are mine. It wouldn't matter what set of trading techniques I attempted to use. I'd still lose money and always will unless I can correct my thinking. I cannot rid myself of emotion, but I can learn to use emotions to assist in working my trade plan.

I hope my rant doesn't offend any of the readers. If it did, I apologize. I enjoy this thread and hope it continues for a long time, and wish the readers well.
  • #26,743
  • May 5, 2015 9:53pm May 5, 2015 9:53pm
On phone and cant type much. Just want to say you obviosly understand the most important pieces of a successful trader, we are really the main (only) thing holding us back from success. So you're already well on your way compared to most. The technical side is easy compared to the emotional side. And as long as you know you were maybe breaking rules but doing it for learning purposes, then thats great. Did the same thing on purpose all of last November, broke as many rules as I could, to really understand them. Look into EFT too, that helps clear out negative emotions from your energy system, if you believe in that sort of thing.
  • #26,744
  • Edited 9:20am May 6, 2015 9:00am | Edited 9:20am
Some trains leave without you...

Had a pending set on EURUSD as I was leaving for work at the high of that 1hr zone from yesterday.

Pending long set at 1.12004, price hit 1.12014 so here I sit on the sidelines as price has just made a daily high at 1.13401.

Oh well I guess I can take some solice in the fact that my planned trade was right on point and I would have bought right at the days low (well post LO anyway).... if only!

Had I been near my charts I may have traded that NS right before the push up but I was busy with work stuff.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,745
  • May 6, 2015 10:17am May 6, 2015 10:17am
In addition to the 1hr NS right before NYO seen in my above post / chart there was also a lovely little NS/2BR entry just after NYO on the 5 min chart. This printed right down into the high of the LO 1hr zone (which at the time was the highest volume bar today). Nice little set up after that NYO buyers push up.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,746
  • May 6, 2015 10:32am May 6, 2015 10:32am
Hi all,

thanks to all the people that take time to post and share.

My question to the more experienced here is, what are the triggers that kick you into a trade?
I find myself confortable in taking the trade after a test, at breakout of the high of the candle (and the same opposite pattern for shorts). But I also read about 2BR, like in last Pres' post. Indeed, i was looking at it in real time and i skipped the trade because volume was decreasing on the up candle, this is why I realized that I must formulate some simple rule to enter into a trade without second thinking to progress as a trader. What's the proper definition of a 2BR? (I also noticed that bulls/bears trap, which are some kind of 2BR work very well, in this case i know that the second candle must print a lower low for longs but closing higher than the previous down-candle but I don't know how volume should be, maybe is not important). I also read about entries on shakeouts/upthrusths.

Also, speaking in general terms, when do you take an entry on volume and when you wait for a low volume signals?

I read some post about this in the past, on entries with volume, but i'd like a clarification if possible
We become what we think about
  • #26,747
  • Edited 10:54am May 6, 2015 10:39am | Edited 10:54am
Quoting pres78
In addition to the 1hr NS right before NYO seen in my above post / chart there was also a lovely little NS/2BR entry just after NYO on the 5 min chart. This printed right down into the high of the LO 1hr zone (which at the time was the highest volume bar today). Nice little set up after that NYO buyers push up. {image}
Yes, took a long when down bar volume increased greatly into an area of demand, and inverted hammer printed after. Your trade was more safer/solid, some nice signals today. Only thing I didn't like about that 5m 2BR was the up bar had really low volume, but 3m confirmed a better NS just a few candles after.
5m
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  • #26,748
  • May 6, 2015 10:47am May 6, 2015 10:47am
Quoting Smaraz
Hi all, thanks to all the people that take time to post and share. My question to the more experienced here is, what are the triggers that kick you into a trade? I find myself confortable in taking the trade after a test, at breakout of the high of the candle (and the same opposite pattern for shorts). But I also read about 2BR, like in last Pres' post. Indeed, i was looking at it in real time and i skipped the trade because volume was decreasing on the up candle, this is why I realized that I must formulate some simple rule to enter into a trade...
I am sure you will get different response from different people on the 2BR's as is the case really with any bar print and everyone sees things differently etc...

For me I have 2 different 2BR that I will trade but I should qualify as with any type of entry it MUST be happening at a place of relevance and not just in the middle of nowhere.

 

  1. My favorite 2BR is the style I showed in my last post. NS follow by upbar. The Upbar MUST make a LL, MUST close on it's high and MUST close at least above 50% of the NS bar but the higher the better. In fact I will even trade these if the downbar is NOT a NS based on volume as long as the upbar meets all of it's rules and we are hitting support. Opposite of this for sells.
  2. Increased volume upbar but again it must meet all of the rules above including making the lower low.


Seeing a drop in volume on the downbar into support shows lack of selling where of we get increased volume and ck lose above the support it shows possible hidden buyers. The next bar dipping lower to start and closing strong on it's high confirms this even if the upbar volume is not increased. The key is being at support (or resistance) etc...

I have high volume and low volume entries in my trade plan but none of this is more important than taking these entries at the right spots.

Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,749
  • May 6, 2015 10:51am May 6, 2015 10:51am
Quoting hieronymus
{quote} Yes, took a long when down bar volume increased greatly into an area of demand, and inverted hammer printed after. Your trade was more safer/solid, some nice signals today. Only thing I didn't like about that 5m 2BR was the up bar was really low, but 3m confirmed a better NS just a few candles after. 5m {image}
Yes that increased volume downbar was a great sign right after than NYO push. For me on a 2BR into support I don't care about the upbar volume looking like ND if the bar prints right. In this case it fully engulfed the NS before so I would take that day in and day out as an entry. That's just me though and I can see your points as well. Nice trading.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,750
  • May 6, 2015 10:56am May 6, 2015 10:56am
Great to see this thread up and running again.

Any of you guys in and around the London area?
  • #26,751
  • May 6, 2015 10:59am May 6, 2015 10:59am
Quoting hieronymus
{quote} Yes, took a long when down bar volume increased greatly into an area of demand, and inverted hammer printed after. Your trade was more safer/solid, some nice signals today. Only thing I didn't like about that 5m 2BR was the up bar had really low volume, but 3m confirmed a better NS just a few candles after. 5m {image}
Bro, your volume analysis is contradicting and misleading. Volume increase at the bearish bar, how will you determine that a demand region. Volume dropped after that bearish candle. Post a live analysis next time, your analysis will be different if its on live. LOL. No offence.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #26,752
  • May 6, 2015 11:02am May 6, 2015 11:02am
Quoting pres78
Keep an eye on EURUSD this month as there is a good chance we will be seeing a return to 1.1 before heading much higher. From there we could see a great higher TF trade either way. Right now more on the side of seeing a nice buy but at this point it could go either way and we will need to watch PA as we get down into that area. Just something to keep an eye on if it plays out.
Well we didn't quite get to 1.1. Lowest we hit was around 1.165. Demand seemed too great not to test into but after yesterday's support and today's push up 1.1 seems now out of play. Still a lot of Feb / Jan ranging mess to push through where we are right now so another retrace will be in order for continued higher prices but most likely now we won't see 1.1.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,753
  • May 6, 2015 11:13am May 6, 2015 11:13am
Quoting pres78
{quote} Yes that increased volume downbar was a great sign right after than NYO push. For me on a 2BR into support I don't care about the upbar volume looking like ND if the bar prints right. In this case it fully engulfed the NS before so I would take that day in and day out as an entry. That's just me though and I can see your points as well. Nice trading.
Love your system for 2BR you described actually. Good rules, especially since after supply is lacking, price rises a lot on low volume and it can be tricky to understand it for some.
  • #26,754
  • May 6, 2015 11:16am May 6, 2015 11:16am
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Bro, your volume analysis is contradicting and misleading. Volume increase at the bearish bar, how will you determine that a demand region. Volume dropped after that bearish candle. Post a live analysis next time, your analysis will be different if its on live. LOL. No offence.
Join the Skype group, I only do live there. Same way I analyze always. You have to think laterally, not easy for some : )
Look at the gap zone, highlighted in green. That's a demand zone. A down candle entering that zone on very high volume is very suspect, especially when it doesn't close on it's low. The time of day, previous price action, what N.Y. has been biased at and many other factors add into the analysis, but that was a very obvious trade for me, just based on the zone and volume.
My volume analysis is far from Tradeguider and co, I'll give you that.
  • #26,755
  • May 6, 2015 11:28am May 6, 2015 11:28am
Sure Bro, PM your Skype, I am always interested in people doing live. Because I never trust people who do analysis after it happen. Kinda of BS!
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #26,756
  • Edited 11:43am May 6, 2015 11:30am | Edited 11:43am
Just took this long, although I only have a 2 tick stop below IH. Action beforehand is still bearish and it's not the best time of day for this kind of trade, after such a big move. Volume is holding up directly on this demand zone as marked all over.
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And this TPO chart is showing not the best for bulls. It keeps hitting resistance. I can't remember what the percentages are for how many times, until it breaks. Volume is showing its at least being held up, but that can be for a thousand temporary reasons.
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Edit: Out of trade.
  • #26,757
  • May 7, 2015 9:12am May 7, 2015 9:12am
My trading has fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks. Giving back all of what I made from the start of the year. So here's a winning (at last) trade I took today. This chart serves as a reminder to myself to keep it simple and stick to what has been working for me this year.

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1. Not the highest volume from yesterday but certainly a zone worth working with. Especially when the higher volume zone was 70odd pips away at London Open.

2. Once price broke into this zone it printed an upthrust towards the high. Price reacted to this upthrust and printed a descending triple bottom on the P&F chart. TP was at the low of the zone. Which it hit quite quickly.

Broke a horrible run of losses. My own fault, tinkering with the strategy and trying some longer term trades. All of which haven't worked in the past for me. Another stark reminder as to why.

Get a strategy together and stick to it.
  • #26,758
  • May 7, 2015 9:46am May 7, 2015 9:46am
Quoting KinsaleForex
My trading has fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks. Giving back all of what I made from the start of the year. So here's a winning (at last) trade I took today. This chart serves as a reminder to myself to keep it simple and stick to what has been working for me this year. {image} 1. Not the highest volume from yesterday but certainly a zone worth working with. Especially when the higher volume zone was 70odd pips away at London Open. 2. Once price broke into this zone it printed an upthrust towards the high. Price reacted to this upthrust...
If it isn't broke then there is no point in trying to fix it.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,759
  • May 7, 2015 12:06pm May 7, 2015 12:06pm
Hello HiddenGap, I've already asked it in the relevant thread but since it's an old thread so I don't know if it's active anymore, so if you would like to explain it here (what makes that a valid OKR pattern?) in case?

Thanks.

here's the thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=360461&page=4
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #26,760
  • May 8, 2015 10:20am May 8, 2015 10:20am
Quoting KinsaleForex
My trading has fallen off a cliff in the last few weeks. Giving back all of what I made from the start of the year. So here's a winning (at last) trade I took today. This chart serves as a reminder to myself to keep it simple and stick to what has been working for me this year.
I usually get much worse when I change my style or learn something new and try to add it as well, but I usually stick with it and obsess over it and in the end I'm a better trader. I try trading the M6E when I do that kind of stuff though, or just SIM. Glad your back in the black, I like your charts even though I've never used PnF. I believe it's rather akin to the Kagi though isn't it? I use them regularly.
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