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  • #14,361
  • May 6, 2015 9:40pm May 6, 2015 9:40pm
Quoting Hops
{quote} Hi, you miss some points, like After 1, befor the 2. --> 1.5 point : PRAY After 2, before 3. --> PRAY :-) :-) :-) So Donquixote, we try to catch the direction and we open position before the news. There are poeple how do it for expert (like me) , others do it with pending orders and others open and pray for the good direction. Yesterday I withdraw my money , I left FXTM because of the slip and I opend an own account in LCG. I'll show the result on course in my trade explorer when the new acc will be ready. I hope today I can make the deposit...

Lol!! At least you guys are here to bring my mood up a little bit and make me smile! thanks
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #14,362
  • May 6, 2015 9:41pm May 6, 2015 9:41pm
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} Keep ya head up Tony https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JBuDilQdZyg Hope everything works out man

Thanks for those kind words, little things like that stay in my head. Thanks
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #14,363
  • May 6, 2015 9:42pm May 6, 2015 9:42pm
Our main even it coming. I'm loading the bazooka now!
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #14,364
  • May 6, 2015 10:21pm May 6, 2015 10:21pm
No worries mate

2015 is shaping up to be a great year of trading!

Up (+13% ) year-to-date
Attached Image


The real secret to successful trading is +ve RR

Take this trade for example:

I was up 15% before the Australian employment. I risked 2% to make between 4-6% which meant I was trading with 1:2 - 1:3 ratio. This means the odds are always in my favour as you can see from my equity curve with larger swings up followed by smaller swings down each time.

Trading this way you can be proud of your losses, because you know that you were taking that trade with a higher statistical probably of return over the longer term Hope this helps some of you out there, it sure helped me.

That is the true definition of an edge.
  • #14,365
  • May 6, 2015 10:55pm May 6, 2015 10:55pm
Quoting Monterson
Hi. This is simple method. 1. You look at Forex Factory Calendar for major news. 2. You analyze it or not but make decision about direction of news (up, down) 3. 1 minute before news you open position in direction you've decided before. 4. You put Stoploss around 20 pips and Take profit 120 pips (or without TP) 5. Pray 6. Pray harder. 7. If you were wrong you lost 20 pips stoploss, if you were right you collect pips for next pipsolottery 8. Calming down. Heart rate slowing down to 200. 9. You wonder why you forgotten to put SL order. "Was that...
why dont u wait for the actual in forexfactroy to come out?(that way more easy right?)
Take What You Can , Give Nothing Back
  • #14,366
  • May 7, 2015 12:44am May 7, 2015 12:44am
Quoting Donquixote
{quote} why dont u wait for the actual in forexfactroy to come out?(that way more easy right?)
By the time the 'actual' comes out its too late lol. We're dealing in nanoseconds here
Attached Image
  • #14,367
  • May 7, 2015 12:45am May 7, 2015 12:45am
Quoting SaiLyfee
No worries mate 2015 is shaping up to be a great year of trading! Up (+13% ) year-to-date {image} The real secret to successful trading is +ve RR Take this trade for example: I was up 15% before the Australian employment. I risked 2% to make between 4-6% which meant I was trading with 1:2 - 1:3 ratio. This means the odds are always in my favour as you can see from my equity curve with larger swings up followed by smaller swings down each time. Trading this way you can be proud of your losses, because you know that you were taking that trade with...
You're tracing your owns stars in the sky my friend. That's what this chart reminds me of. I've been away for a while and I see your constant progress. I truly believe you'll make it. Stay in the 1%!
Invest in alarm clocks
  • #14,368
  • May 7, 2015 12:47am May 7, 2015 12:47am
Quoting SaiLyfee
{quote} By the time the 'actual' comes out its too late lol. We're dealing in nanoseconds here {image}
u right though ive seen it my self...
Take What You Can , Give Nothing Back
  • #14,369
  • May 7, 2015 12:53am May 7, 2015 12:53am
Quoting Tony112
{quote} You're tracing your owns stars in the sky my friend. That's what this chart reminds me of. I've been away for a while and I see your constant progress. I truly believe you'll make it. Stay in the 1%!
Thanks man, would never have been where I am now without your thread. I really hope I can do what I can to help people and pay it forward as well.
  • #14,370
  • May 7, 2015 1:04am May 7, 2015 1:04am
Hi, Monterson!
Can u tell me what news can produce 120 pips impact, beside NFP? Interest rates usually go for more than a 100 pips, but usualy the volatility messes up your strategy. And maybe the RR is 1:2 or 1:3 or whatever(like SaiLyfee said), if you got one right out of.. lets say 6? And of course there are other small problems. If you put the order one minute before the news, it may not execute your order, if you put it 2~3 min before the news it may trigger your stop before the news. And what about SL gaps?
Maybe you got a very good samaritean broker, but with most brokers you can get huge gaps on SL. I'm not saying that trading on news does't work. I'm pretty convinced that this is the only way you can earn in fx. I'm trading the news for 14 months, around 100 news events and i hardly made 75% profit. And one last thing, praying does not help! Usually is like that: pray, pray, pray, curse, curse, curse!
  • #14,371
  • May 7, 2015 4:29am May 7, 2015 4:29am
Hi All,

my new account in LCG is ready, it's in the trade exploler, let's see the news! :-)
Good luck to all!
There are many wise people, but only a few of them are rich.
  • #14,372
  • May 7, 2015 5:05am May 7, 2015 5:05am
Quoting Alex81
Hi, Monterson! Can u tell me what news can produce 120 pips impact, beside NFP? Interest rates usually go for more than a 100 pips, but usualy the volatility messes up your strategy. And maybe the RR is 1:2 or 1:3 or whatever(like SaiLyfee said), if you got one right out of.. lets say 6? And of course there are other small problems. If you put the order one minute before the news, it may not execute your order, if you put it 2~3 min before the news it may trigger your stop before the news. And what about SL gaps? Maybe you got a very good samaritean...
Hi Alex81,

I trade news for few months now. Tony's idea works great for me. I believe that price contains news already but when near Support/Resistant line goes long 120+ pips. Sometimes even more (USDCHF 15.01.2015 ). Sometimes only 60 pips. Last month is bad anyway. Market is in constant change. If big players do not want price to go they stop it easily.

I don't understand you position. If you can't fly it doesn't mean nobody on the planet flies. Tony's idea is to open order 1 minute before news release because this is closer to "start time" so you avoid slippage and spread and then you move stoploss 1 second before news. If you can't do it that means you've go shitty broker. Tony trades on Oanda. I'm on Ironfx. There is no problem out there.

Last thing. I do not pray, course etc. I am calm. I analyze news properly and pull the trigger, just like sniper. No hands shake.

The news I trade (as shown by Tony few pages ago):

USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies SL10 / TP120 Fortnightly Federal Reserves
USD FOMC Meeting Minutes SL18 / TP120 8/year Federal Open Market Committee
USD Non-Farm Employment Change SL18 / TP120 Monthly Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change
USD FOMC Statement SL20 / TP150 Monthly Federal Open Market Committee, future economic outlook
USD FOMC Press Conference SL20 / TP150 Quarterly Federal Open Market Committee, future economic outlook
USD Advance GDP q/q SL20 / TP150 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product

GBP CPI y/y SL18 / TP120 Monthly Consumer Price Index
GBP Claimant Count Change SL18 / TP120 Monthly Jobless Claims
GBP Manufacturing PMI SL18 / TP120 Monthly Purchasing Managers' Index
GBP Prelim GDP q/q SL20 / TP200 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product

EUR German Ifo Business Climate SL14 / TP120 Monthly leading indicator of economic health
EUR Minimum Bid Rate SL12 / TP120 Monthly European Central Bank, Interest rate
EUR ECB Press Conference SL12 / TP120 Monthly European Central Bank, Interest rate statement

CAD Core CPI m/m SL16 / TP120 Monthly Consumer Price Index
JPY Prelim GDP q/q SL15 / TP120 Quarterly Gross Domestic Product
AUD Cash Rate SL18 / TP200 Monthly Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA);
CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment SL18 / TP120 Quarterly Swiss National Bank (SNB)

(SL nad TP changes occasionally)
Pure Price Action Trading
  • #14,373
  • May 7, 2015 5:08am May 7, 2015 5:08am
One more thing.

News do need to go that amount pips. They can make big move that reach 120+ pips in the day. Knowing technical analysis is the key to get it. I wish you luck my friend.
Pure Price Action Trading
  • #14,374
  • May 7, 2015 8:31am May 7, 2015 8:31am
Thanks for the reply, Monterson!
I may have one of worst broker out there. I'm with them for more than 4 years now. I have stayed with them beacause they have fixed spreads. I know that this may not be a good thing but after i have seen on other brokers spreads that go over 50 pips before NFP or FOMC, it kinda freak me out. I was using the straddle method and if the spreads would have rise to much it would have triggered my positions.
Now i use vsa for analizing and it's working for me. As for the result of the news, it really doesn't matter. It can be for ex. good for the dollar but the market goes the other way. Like the aussie employement. It went down just enough to activate some buy orders at 0.7925(on AUD/USD) and then it went back up like crazy! The same for the rate cut. Saddly for me i can't change the broker right now, but i'll definitely change it in a few months.
One last question, on wich timeframes do you make your analisys?
  • #14,375
  • May 7, 2015 10:09am May 7, 2015 10:09am
I am swing trader so I trade H1 upwards and all my analysis starts on H1. If necessary I go down but rarely.
But I don't analyze price chart now but news chart on FF. (I did it when composing list of major releases). I watch what was before (months before) then I am trying to find patterns e.g. some news month after month go up, some works like every other one up. If I see that FF forecast is close to the place I recon will go then I do not trade them news. I try to stay away from obvious news. If child can predict that move I stay away. I also look at pre-recession news order and during recession.
People usually say "you won't learn it overnight" but I've learned it overnight
Pure Price Action Trading
  • #14,376
  • May 7, 2015 10:23am May 7, 2015 10:23am
Thanks!
I think the most important thing in news trading is to find out if they will have big impact or not and stay away when you should. I still haven't figure it out so far.
  • #14,377
  • May 7, 2015 10:37am May 7, 2015 10:37am
Quoting Alex81
Thanks! I think the most important thing in news trading is to find out if they will have big impact or not and stay away when you should. I still haven't figure it out so far.
I have spend hours of work during the last week to look into the recent charts of news events.
http://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex_...urope%2FBerlin
You can do the same and see by yourself which combination of news generate the most volatility, nothing will come close to the consistency of NFP though. I don't know how up to date this here is but it's a good way to start. http://www.babypips.com/school/under...de-worthy.html.

I am only trading a half automated long term strategy and am swing trading currently which gives me a lot of free time. Maybe it's time for a real empirical study .
  • #14,378
  • May 7, 2015 11:22am May 7, 2015 11:22am
Hi, Kilian19!
It is not about what news generate volatility, it's about when they doesn't. I mean everybody knows that NFP is one of the biggest event, but sometimes it doesn't have too much impact, and can go up and down in seconds or minutes.
  • #14,379
  • May 7, 2015 11:36am May 7, 2015 11:36am
Quoting Alex81
Hi, Kilian19! It is not about what news generate volatility, it's about when they doesn't. I mean everybody knows that NFP is one of the biggest event, but sometimes it doesn't have too much impact, and can go up and down in seconds or minutes.
Yes but for me it would be a valuable information if I would know which combination of other events has the possibility to generate a huge move with a big enough likely hood.
  • #14,380
  • May 7, 2015 11:45am May 7, 2015 11:45am
Quoting Kilian19
{quote} Yes but for me it would be a valuable information if I would know which combination of other events has the possibility to generate a huge move with a big enough likely hood.
The permutation of combinations is equal to the mathematical squaring of the number of individual events possible. So, the potential market result is more than the human mind could possibly fathom. And then you have the clincher,.......the MMs might decide to do something entirely different with price just because they can and because by doing so they will profit the most by screwing the most positions in the market.

-tah
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