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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,641
  • May 5, 2015 8:47am May 5, 2015 8:47am
Quoting Magix
{quote} I'm trying to figure out when you lost the program, dude... We totally crushed this shit on the WE.. Was really wondering why you were loading the skorties on AUDUSD... {image}
100% honest, just being completely stupid. Trying to be smart and catch both mini swings. That one was a hold for a month+ too. Cost me a percent and a half and some grey hairs.
  • #134,642
  • May 5, 2015 9:13am May 5, 2015 9:13am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} 100% honest, just being completely stupid. Trying to be smart and catch both mini swings. That one was a hold for a month+ too. Cost me a percent and a half and some grey hairs.
Bah...Fuckem!

Can't win em all...
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,643
  • May 5, 2015 9:15am May 5, 2015 9:15am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote}Because 3 things: You are implying/trying to use academic/or economic theory definitions of correlation for actual trading when what my point is that YOU SHOULD USE CORRELATIONS FOR DEFINING MACRO DIRECTION and then trading accordingly. A specific correlation like RATES is not ALWAYS in play and is NOT ALWAYS the main source to define direction but when it DOES you better be aligned with THAT if you want to reduce drawdown and increase %W!!!!....thats why i mentioned about "we are about to enter in RMT (Rate's Mode...


Hi Sisse,

thanks for your replies and efforts.

You made very valid arguments about "who was trading in the 70's etc."


Regarding above red marked argument:

Again, and I can only talk for me this time, I do NOT make this argument. Au contraire. Re-read what I wrote. I definitively warned to not to use the simple view on a chart (with rates differentials and price on it) and try to trade that.

If that did not get clear, I do not know how to explain myself better.


Blue quote:

the problem is, that most of the well followed posters talked about rate differentials and never said how the newbies should trade them. You gave first hints now. Most what I read in the threads was more kind of to directly trade them (the correlations). That was the reason I started to warn not to do that.



Best to you,


Markus
  • #134,644
  • May 5, 2015 9:21am May 5, 2015 9:21am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I put it to you that the reason YOU can succeed by analyzing the fundamental data is the same reason that Magix (for example) can by reading the charts. It's more that you've both done it for so long (looked at the data and at the charts respectively) that you both grasp intuitively when something is going to work out one way, and when it will work out another, rather than that there's always a consistently tradable pattern associated with interest rates (or expectations about them) that can be relied on to work, say...

Of course, intuition is the key

I do not mind if all players are there or only a few. Sometimes you get more volatility, sometimes less.

As a technical trader it should be easy to adapt for that
  • #134,645
  • May 5, 2015 9:26am May 5, 2015 9:26am
Quoting Magix
{quote} Bah...Fuckem! Can't win em all...
I'd much rather lose the ones I'm supposed to lose instead of lose the ones I'm supposed to win!

Next time.

Still wanting to catch EU lower for the long slow trudge north...
  • #134,646
  • May 5, 2015 9:33am May 5, 2015 9:33am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'd much rather lose the ones I'm supposed to lose instead of lose the ones I'm supposed to win! Next time. Still wanting to catch EU lower for the long slow trudge north...
so your "guess" is that euro going to slowly grind up further more ! could you elaborate and give us some levels to watch .. I am interested .

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,647
  • May 5, 2015 9:58am May 5, 2015 9:58am
Quoting hoom
{quote} so your "guess" is that euro going to slowly grind up further more ! could you elaborate and give us some levels to watch .. I am interested . hoom.
It's been posted over the last month.... turned where it was supposed to, levels were posted as well, monthly made the close it was supposed to. It's all there....

setup I'm looking for now- color coded and everything. Blue buy, Red sell

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post8240959
  • #134,648
  • May 5, 2015 9:58am May 5, 2015 9:58am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'd much rather lose the ones I'm supposed to lose instead of lose the ones I'm supposed to win! Next time. Still wanting to catch EU lower for the long slow trudge north...
2 possibilities...

1. We hit Monthly Open and crush back to the HG zone.
2. We crush through Monthly open and wait for it to show as support.

Personally, I am more of a fan of it dumping back to fill the Gap...but could really give a shit less either way.

Made some nice bank on the AUD pairs and the retrace at current...effectively, my week could be over.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURLEV.png Size: 51 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,649
  • May 5, 2015 10:06am May 5, 2015 10:06am
Quoting Magix
{quote} 2 possibilities... 1. We hit Monthly Open and crush back to the HG zone. 2. We crush through Monthly open and wait for it to show as support. Personally, I am more of a fan of it dumping back to fill the Gap...but could really give a shit less either way. Made some nice bank on the AUD pairs and the retrace at current...effectively, my week could be over. {image}
RUB IT IN WHY DONT YOU!!

EU: if I'm going to play I need option #1. Hard for me to believe 1014 or below wont be tested...but if not, I'll have to find another setup.

So far time is on the side of option one. Retest in first two weeks would be ideal..
  • #134,650
  • May 5, 2015 10:09am May 5, 2015 10:09am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} It's been posted over the last month.... turned where it was supposed to, levels were posted as well, monthly made the close it was supposed to. It's all there.... setup I'm looking for now- color coded and everything. Blue buy, Red sell http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post8240959
okey , I see that you have 1.2 in your charts ... well I don't have levels beyond 1.13 unless we clear this area - almost done with rejection of 1.10xx - my next reference is a daily close above 1.122x for an attempt to 1.137x .. extension 1.145x .. else we're forming the top and the low of the range for next few days before the real swing low to 1.02xx occur .

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,651
  • May 5, 2015 10:13am May 5, 2015 10:13am
Quoting hoom
{quote} okey , I see that you have 1.2 in your charts ... well I don't have levels beyond 1.13 unless we clear this area - almost done with rejection of 1.10xx - my next reference is a daily close above 1.122x for an attempt to 1.137x .. extension 1.145x .. else we're forming the top and the low of the range for next few days before the real swing low to 1.02xx occur . hoom.
Basic monthly PA says otherwise. That monthly candle was expensive. Stopped 9 months of pure selling, and unprecedented amount of selling in the history of the EU. On top of that, it engulfed. EU is improving, US is printing worse numbers (for the short term at least)

Without rate hikes and/or retrace - nothing below the current low (1.05xx)

Greece of course the wild card
  • #134,652
  • May 5, 2015 10:23am May 5, 2015 10:23am
There's other levels besides 1.2xx, that's not concrete

the 3/4 mentioned could be it, yearly open as well

I don't like going this far out into the future- too many variables. The monthly is the smoking gun though.

Most times, the monthly doesn't lie, perhaps it could this time. I'm just an idiot waiting for it to rain.
  • #134,653
  • May 5, 2015 10:27am May 5, 2015 10:27am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Basic monthly PA says otherwise. That monthly candle was expensive. Stopped 9 months of pure selling, and unprecedented amount of selling in the history of the EU. On top of that, it engulfed. EU is improving, US is printing worse numbers (for the short term at least) Without rate hikes and/or retrace - nothing below the current low (1.05xx) Greece of course the wild card
Indeed , but it doesn't tell much with hikes + greece card on the board... also notice that the strong downtrend would dismiss any extended correction / reversal ..thus going back to 1.2 would create a loophole in the current cycle .. in the other hand you have sisse post about 1.2 when asked by our fellow trader Likerty #post..more fundies in details.

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,654
  • May 5, 2015 12:37pm May 5, 2015 12:37pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} RUB IT IN WHY DONT YOU!! EU: if I'm going to play I need option #1. Hard for me to believe 1014 or below wont be tested...but if not, I'll have to find another setup. So far time is on the side of option one. Retest in first two weeks would be ideal..
Nah, dude...

Not rubbing it in...I've been positioned since EOW last, for a couple of nice trips.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,655
  • May 5, 2015 12:41pm May 5, 2015 12:41pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Nah, dude... Not rubbing it in...I've been positioned since EOW last, for a couple of nice trips.
No worries here just messin with ya
  • #134,656
  • May 5, 2015 3:10pm May 5, 2015 3:10pm
Quoting MissPips
trading currencies at the CME in 72 in 'The New Market Wizards' is a nice read. Those seats were established in 72 precisely because the big boys sniffed profits to be made as a result of the end of Bretton Woods in 71. The interview with Bill Lipshutz, who started trading currencies with Salomon brothers in 81 is a great one too)....
Speculation in currencies has existed even since before currencies were actually invented. However, common sense and context applies on my comments before so we can compare apples with apples ...

Quote
reason YOU can succeed by analyzing the fundamental data is the same reason that Magix (for example) can by reading the charts. It's more that you've both done it for so long (looked at the data and at the charts respectively) that you both grasp intuitively when something is going to work out one way, and when it will work out another, rather than that there's always a consistently tradable pattern associated with interest rates (or expectations about them) that can be relied on to work, say X% of the time.

...well or you become a technical fundamentalist and use both ....

Back to your comments ..." rather than that there's always a consistently tradable pattern associated with interest rates" I keep strongly disagreeing with you but I guess we are going to agree on disagreeing on this one. You keep trying to find a perfect exact "recipe book" for trading rates and I keep insisting that the "money" is in playing expectations not facts. ...

I have posted almost every major FA change related with Macro FA and rates this year in euro/dollar, ahead and live on the main event changers, you can check it out and maybe something extra (or maybe not)will trigger on how to analyse macro direction.

Sure, I think I have (like most of people trading TA or FA) miss a couple of decent mini FA shakers in the last year and also underestimated/overestimate a few others (I also post when I misread or miscalculate some) but what I can guarantee you There is NO way you can dismiss (or make much money) betting against on a CB playing rates.... as i mentioned before, smart traders always choose the pattern of less resistance ... so sure you can dismiss RATES but why ? when the meat is in the that side....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,657
  • May 5, 2015 7:20pm May 5, 2015 7:20pm
To be honest , Misspips add no value to trading through her academic blablabla , and it's annoying the way she argue with Sisse on the matter ... another thing ... her country says it all ... you can attack me ..say whatever you want , but no one can hide the truth ... I regret but am out if this continue !

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,658
  • May 5, 2015 7:45pm May 5, 2015 7:45pm
Quoting hoom
To be honest , Misspips add no value to trading through her academic blablabla , and it's annoying the way she argue with Sisse on the matter ... another thing ... her country says it all ... you can attack me ..say whatever you want , but no one can hide the truth ... I regret but am out if this continue ! hoom.
That's kinda fuckin harsh, dude....

He/She...(whatever)...says their piece, posts a chart and carries on...

Whether you agree or disagree...well, that's the actual benefit of a forum.

Ya see...whenever somebody says something, be it fundamentally or technically, it allows you to strengthen your conviction in your own opinion. They can be the devils advocate, or they can be the voice of confirmation and through a little chatter, you increase your idea on positioning.

Everybody knows I am an asshole...really, it's just a game I like to play. When I flat out challenge folk, I expect it to be of the same. They will either gain their strength by arguing their point, or they will fold, close their account and move on. The end result, is probably going to be the best result for them.

When I see the long wordy posts and charts full of shit, that I flat out don't understand...I view this as an opportunity. Repetition is the mother of knowledge and the more I spout my own rhetoric, the stronger my convictions get. It may not always help in the long run, and I flat out might be wrong...but when I choose my path, I know that it is the path that I have chosen for myself.

The worst thing about forums...everybody gets a chance to post.
The best thing about forums...everybody gets a chance to post.

What you do with the information, is the value you find in it.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,659
  • May 5, 2015 7:48pm May 5, 2015 7:48pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Ah ha. Now I see what you are saying and agree. (missed this before). But, given that rates mode is not always in play, you must have some reasons for thinking that this is going to be one of the times that it will be. Would you mind explaining why you think that?
Wow what a intelligent and pertinent question.......I eagerly await to know the answer too.

GS.
  • #134,660
  • May 5, 2015 7:59pm May 5, 2015 7:59pm
I will attest- having read the thread back to front- Magix has gone soft.
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