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  • #5,781
  • May 4, 2015 5:42pm May 4, 2015 5:42pm
Quoting devontrader
Clive ref post 5766 would it be advantages to use 1 confirming indicator for divergence etc as shown in picture and place it on the chart along side cci? As yet ive not seen a good indicator...most indicators put so.many lines on charts it messes them sonbest to draw manual as dee50 said

Ha Ha bless your cotton socks, "most indicators put too many lines on charts" thats because the indicators are drawing every divergence not just the winning ones...

Theres too many lines because theres too many occurrences of divergence...

But like all indicators you can't just blindly follow their signals, you have to look at the price action and market structure to make sure they all add up...Then your indicators become confirmation of the trade not the sole reason for the trade..

I'm sorry Jason but there is no indicator that will always give you a winner, but if you trade with a strong trend then they will be 70% accurate in my experience. After the Holy Grail jason???

Trade with the trend....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,782
  • May 4, 2015 5:51pm May 4, 2015 5:51pm
Quoting ozziedave
My Trade for the day. EU short for 64 pips. {image}

Nice one .... could you share the indicator that gives you the big hourly candles ? Do you use it for trailing ?
  • #5,783
  • May 4, 2015 5:52pm May 4, 2015 5:52pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Hi Fxfury Not a good day for me , it seemed very rangy today with nothing really going much more than about 50 pips so by the time they were setting up it was all over...
Bank holiday plus general election week... goodbye liquidity
  • #5,784
  • May 4, 2015 6:01pm May 4, 2015 6:01pm
Quoting tsatsa
could you share the indicator that gives you the big hourly candles ?
Looks like m-candles... a search on that name should throw up the latest version.
  • #5,785
  • May 4, 2015 6:21pm May 4, 2015 6:21pm
Quoting GodsClown
{quote} You don't have good moneymanagement, if one day kills 30% of your account. Also if I look at the divergence I don't like to trust them most, because too many fals signals.

I'll have to disagree with you there my friend as I'm rather proud of my money management system. I have been trading at 1% per pip lately so its only 3 losers in total just 30 pips..

But when I get it right I'm making a serious percentage gain in a day, last week I had a couple of 100% plus days, so can cope with a 30% loss, my money management is quite simple just trade a set percentage of your account , for instance 1% across 10 pips , then even a run of losers won't really hurt and a few winners puts it all back on again. Really important to stick to that same percentage of the outstanding balance of your account.

Protects you when you're hitting a losing streak and builds it quickly when you start winning.

Its the same for me although I'm using 1% per pip it still works, I could have a lot of losers and still not blow my account..In fact you could lose 20 trades on the trot and still not blow your account, true it would be fairly small by then, but I'd like to think I might realise something was amiss after 10 losers and change my system..

You can set the % you want to risk per pip to suit your risk profile so I guess 1% across 10 pips is good enough or 0.1% per pip.

But think about it, as long as you keep it constant so your winners are the same percent and if bigger then your account should grow shouldn't it, as long as your strategy has a positive edge the percentage you risk per trade is almost irrelevant as your winners make up for your loser.

If however you have a negative expectancy then it doesn't matter how small a percentage you risk You're gonna blow your account eventually. All you're doing with the smaller risk is making it last longer.

No the most important thing is to stay consistent and also to have a winning edge plus bigger winners than your losers then to be honest you could trade 50% of your account each trade and still win...leverage allowing of course.

The key is to only use a percentage of "Your outstanding balance" so if you win you're risking more each trade and if you lose you're risking less each trade..

You actually could lose every trade for the rest of your life and mathematically you'd never ever blow it...its impossible...yes it would eventually be too small to trade but mathematically impossible to have a zero balance.

Of course the key to it all really is to trade an amount that doesn't psychologically kill you when you lose because we're all gonna have losers at sometime or other , its all part of trading. If losers are hurting then you're trading to much for your own comfort zone..

My perfect money management system is something like this...

If I had say 10,000 to trade with then I would find a broker with a no negative balance guarantee and deposit 10% of my funds 1,000 then I'd trade at 1% per pip taking advantage of their leverage and using their money to trade not mine. I would maintain the balance at 10% of my trading funds so when up I would withdraw and when down would top up from my account..

So if I doubled my account to 2,000 then I would have a 12,000 balance and withdraw 1,200 if I lost 500 then I would top up again from my reserves . This way I'm using thier money to trade and keeping the vast majority of my trading money safe...

If I suffered a wipe out like the recent CHF nightmare I would still have 90% of my money available to trade..

Mind you thats when I've built it up to start with my account is going to be relatively small so will just trade the whole amount until it grows to a reasonable balance..

Just my money management system...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,786
  • May 4, 2015 7:47pm May 4, 2015 7:47pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Very nice Ozziedave I'm struggling today, unless I catch something good I'm facing a losing day today for sure. How did you manage to identify that trade??? First LH CCI on the HRLY after a good run up???
The series of lower highs and lower lows with momentum on the 1hr CCI dropping below 100 and each bar getting weaker, plus the momentum on the 1 M CCI showing strongly to the short side. I thought I'd would take a chance and get in as the risk wasn't too bad.
  • #5,787
  • May 4, 2015 7:52pm May 4, 2015 7:52pm
Quoting ozziedave
My Trade for the day. EU short for 64 pips. {image}
Very nice.
  • #5,788
  • May 4, 2015 8:03pm May 4, 2015 8:03pm
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Ha Ha bless your cotton socks, "most indicators put too many lines on charts" thats because the indicators are drawing every divergence not just the winning ones... Theres too many lines because theres too many occurrences of divergence... But like all indicators you can't just blindly follow their signals, you have to look at the price action and market structure to make sure they all add up...Then your indicators become confirmation of the trade not the sole reason for the trade.. I'm sorry Jason but there is no indicator that will always...
maybe a good indicator is out there, but the few I've tried these indicators they re-paint when i would already be a number of candles into a good trade. Meaning, we see the situation much faster with our eyes. This may be the reason Dee50, Pres78, and Divergence are simply drawing the divergence instances afterwards. IMHO
  • #5,789
  • May 4, 2015 8:20pm May 4, 2015 8:20pm
Quoting bapakjason
{quote} maybe a good indicator is out there, but the few I've tried these indicators they re-paint when i would already be a number of candles into a good trade. Meaning, we see the situation much faster with our eyes. This may be the reason Dee50, Pres78, and Divergence are simply drawing the divergence instances afterwards. IMHO

I don't think Divergence is using any indicators to identify divergence on his charts.

I really wouldn't get to hung up on divergence trades, especially counter trend divergence trades. I would suggest that most traders need to concentrate on continuation trades. Until you get experienced and good at that ..forget about divergence trading.
  • #5,790
  • May 4, 2015 8:22pm May 4, 2015 8:22pm
Quoting clivepackham
****Just to let you know theres been some changes made to this strategy so please read this post first but then feel free to jump to page 87 post 1724 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...80#post7780780 where the basic version resides. The earlier post are fine and tell the story of how I found my way but the basic strategy is on post 1724. **** Latest Version for 2015 now here at page 155 post 3088 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post7969207 Hi Guys First of all just a little bit about me and why I've decided to...
And here is me thinking its a numbers game
  • #5,791
  • May 5, 2015 1:18am May 5, 2015 1:18am
Looking at my hrly TTindy I'd say we're looking at GBP pairs to go down today so thats my expectancy and if I see GBP weakness I will be all over it if I get a chance...Mind you the daily trend appears to be up....

Attached Image


Probably won't get much time to trade today but I'll try...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,792
  • May 5, 2015 1:19am May 5, 2015 1:19am
Quoting ozziedave
{quote} I don't think Divergence is using any indicators to identify divergence on his charts. I really wouldn't get to hung up on divergence trades, especially counter trend divergence trades. I would suggest that most traders need to concentrate on continuation trades. Until you get experienced and good at that ..forget about divergence trading.
Sound advice from downunder.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,793
  • May 5, 2015 1:31am May 5, 2015 1:31am
Wow EUR knocked for six any chance bad news for Spanish unemployment figures in 30 mins???
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Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,794
  • May 5, 2015 2:33am May 5, 2015 2:33am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} Sound advice from downunder.....
yes.
  • #5,795
  • May 5, 2015 4:51am May 5, 2015 4:51am
Quoting clivepackham
{quote} I'll have to disagree with you there my friend as I'm rather proud of my money management system. I have been trading at 1% per pip lately so its only 3 losers in total just 30 pips.. But when I get it right I'm making a serious percentage gain in a day, last week I had a couple of 100% plus days, so can cope with a 30% loss, my money management is quite simple just trade a set percentage of your account , for instance 1% across 10 pips , then even a run of losers won't really hurt and a few winners puts it all back on again. ...
1% per pip is crazy on a live account. I go with a stoploss of 15 pip, by a ballance of 5000 that would be a 750 stoploss. So in a few losing trades you kill your account.
In every trade I set my stoploss at 1%, so with every trade I can just lose 1%. A system witch gives you 40% winning trades is still good, because the winners will always be bigger then the losers.
Also it would be realy helpfull if you not just post your winning trades but also your losing trades to see the system through.
  • #5,796
  • May 5, 2015 7:24am May 5, 2015 7:24am
Quoting GodsClown
{quote} 1% per pip is crazy on a live account. I go with a stoploss of 15 pip, by a ballance of 5000 that would be a 750 stoploss. So in a few losing trades you kill your account. In every trade I set my stoploss at 1%, so with every trade I can just lose 1%. A system witch gives you 40% winning trades is still good, because the winners will always be bigger then the losers. Also it would be realy helpfull if you not just post your winning trades but also your losing trades to see the system through.

Not really crazy ,think about what I said. If you have £10,000 to trade then only deposit 10% with your broker, then trade at 1% per pip which of course equates to your 1% of your total trading fund across 10 pips. Theres no difference apart from you're risking their money if a repeat of CHF situation occurs again..

The secret is to only risk the same percentage of your outstanding balance each trade that way its practically impossible to blow your account unless you have a very low hit rate and then you'd need to redesign your system and risk to suit. I've only recently gone to 1% per pip in preparation of going live with a small account if I had a reasonable account say £10,000 then I would be happy trading 1% across 10 pips, but if I found myself consistently winning I would up it bit by bit.

anyway its no problem as long as you've found a risk ratio you feel comfortable trading thats all that matters, trading is very individual and personal.

As for posting losers I will do going forward, but the idea is to try and not have too many if I can help it. 3 losers and out...
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
  • #5,797
  • May 5, 2015 11:33pm May 5, 2015 11:33pm
I don't trade much during the Asian session but took a quick 10 pips on this one. AUDUSD short.
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  • #5,798
  • May 6, 2015 1:31am May 6, 2015 1:31am
Will it fall?
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  • #5,799
  • Edited 2:04am May 6, 2015 1:42am | Edited 2:04am
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All out at be. LOL
  • #5,800
  • May 6, 2015 2:14am May 6, 2015 2:14am
I strongly believe in what all you and your father said. Success is for those who are ready to take it.
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