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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,621
  • May 4, 2015 3:12pm May 4, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting LiquidGenius
{quote} I find it fascinating
I prefer a seat at the little kids table when comes to this stuff...

But, not like they have to stop posting...it's not like I've made it front to back on one of these replies, I can't hardly be aggravated/annoyed, or with ya on the fascination.

More of an all out...

MEH.
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,622
  • May 4, 2015 3:14pm May 4, 2015 3:14pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} I prefer a seat at the little kids table when comes to this stuff... But, not like they have to stop posting...it's not like I've made it front to back on one of these replies, I can't hardly be aggravated/annoyed, or with ya on the fascination. More of an all out... MEH.
The good thing for us idiots is....

You don't have to be a weatherman to know it's raining.

There's still hope for us!
  • #134,623
  • May 4, 2015 3:18pm May 4, 2015 3:18pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} The good thing for us idiots is.... You don't have to be a weatherman to know it's raining. There's still hope for us!


Ditto that, my brother...

Ditto that!
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,624
  • May 4, 2015 3:34pm May 4, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} The good thing for us idiots is.... You don't have to be a weatherman to know it's raining. There's still hope for us!
lol...indeed, but when it's raining so much that your house got flooded because you didn't pay attention to the weatherman...it's like trading based on charts only without knowing the shit coming behind it ... I know , it's a fked up exemple but deal with it ..

hoom.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,625
  • May 4, 2015 3:58pm May 4, 2015 3:58pm
Quoting Magix
{quote} Uhhh... Maybe you've never been introduced to a couple of modern day advances in sleep therapy... Cold Beer. Pr0n. Rubbing one out. Pretty easy deal and a lot less to remember in the am.

LOL

Once I watched "Scrubs"


One of the doctors gave the advise to fist take a seat on your hand until it is numb.

After that you take this hand for ........ (you know what!)


It should give phenomenal different sensation
  • #134,626
  • May 4, 2015 4:01pm May 4, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} LOL Once I watched "Scrubs" One of the doctors gave the advise to fist take a seat on your hand until it is numb. After that you take this hand for ........ (you know what!) It should give phenomenal different sensation

Ahhh yes...
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,627
  • May 4, 2015 5:40pm May 4, 2015 5:40pm
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Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #134,628
  • May 4, 2015 5:56pm May 4, 2015 5:56pm
Quoting kprsa
@Shunyi: Oanda labs. A simple model for causality is the following: Small traders supply liquidity to the large traders. Forex is close to a zero sum game. If you look at sentiment at short timescales, the usual M and W patterns seem to do the trick of confusing the retail... If the causality goes the other way, the retail are just spectacularly and consistently bad at deciding direction. Whatever it is, I am happy with it. @Pharm0r: Sampling could be the problem here. On FF the...
That is why when refer to data of these, the professional trader resolve to Bloomberg Terminal as this terminal shows every trading volume from all brokerage and banks so that the traders can know which side has the higher volume before they can decide which they can place for their thread.
Anyway, anyone here knows about the details on Bloomberg Terminal? Care to share some view on this?
  • #134,629
  • May 4, 2015 6:13pm May 4, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting fx-anew
{quote} That is why when refer to data of these, the professional trader resolve to Bloomberg Terminal as this terminal shows every trading volume from all brokerage and banks so that the traders can know which side has the higher volume before they can decide which they can place for their thread. Anyway, anyone here knows about the details on Bloomberg Terminal? Care to share some view on this?
Id be very surprised to see Bloomberg knowing All Bank and Brokerage volumes.
There is so much dark pool ( undisclosed to the market trading) out there that it would be impossible for Bloomberg to trace.
Dark pool trading was primarily invented for this purpose so the market didn't get wind of what was going on.
  • #134,630
  • May 4, 2015 6:31pm May 4, 2015 6:31pm
Doesnt work that way for Forex, nobody knows all volume, market is too large.

90+% of volume does go through 7 major banks though if I recall.

My AUD shorts just got a whole lot better, if they cut rates later (as widely expected) I'ma buy a new Ferrari.
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  • #134,631
  • May 4, 2015 8:06pm May 4, 2015 8:06pm
No Ferrari today. Bastards got me
  • #134,632
  • May 4, 2015 11:06pm May 4, 2015 11:06pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I see Miss Pips, Sisse, and infinitus....who's the 4th?! Cool info for sure....and mostly above my head. {image}
prolly gator. He's hiding some profound thinking behind all that good ol boy 'mule that shits fast' shit. Who's the fifth?
  • #134,633
  • May 5, 2015 12:01am May 5, 2015 12:01am
wrong decision taken .....

learned a new thing .....
Re-Incarnated
  • #134,634
  • May 5, 2015 12:07am May 5, 2015 12:07am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I see Miss Pips, Sisse, and infinitus....who's the 4th?! Cool info for sure....and mostly above my head. {image}
Didn't you know? Gator's a chick!
  • #134,635
  • May 5, 2015 12:19am May 5, 2015 12:19am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Didn't you know? Gator's a chick!
No way.
  • #134,636
  • Edited 1:58am May 5, 2015 1:45am | Edited 1:58am
Quoting MissPips
(What bothers me is that this cycle looks a lot different on the charts than the previous two, and I can think of a few reasons why that is.)
Quote
... because there are too many other factors at work.... peak at 19% !!!!!!! in 6.81 and start tanking while the DXY....So one can hardly say that the big boys anticipating the Fed ... in the late 70's which accelerated after Nixon scrapped Bretton Woods, and created demand for dollars, as the dollar took its place, and that that was what the big boys were anticipating, beginning in the mid 70s..

...well your analysis is ok but again you are doing the same thing as before: Making an academic argument to try to explain a Trading argument.

Not going in details on this because is beyond these boards during trading hours but quickly What big boys??? What anticipate??? Who??? you are using a case with the end of the Gold Standard (so fix rates) and more importantly for the discussion: Who on earth o you thing was trading in that time???

The City, NY and the global financial sector DIDINT EVEN EXIST (as we know them now) in that time (the forex trading was in its infancy back then).... Im sure a few private speculators (especially international trade companies) probably bet on the break of the fix and etc but there wasn't SUCH a thing AS BIG BOYS, Hedge Funds, etc etc reading the FOMC and trading electronically FOREX in the 70s!!!!. ... you get the point you are beyond scope for trading !!!.

Quoting infinitus
So I can not understand, why Sisse thinks, that Misspips or me are wrong. Both of us warned not to trade the correlation charts but to apply other measurements.
Because 3 things:

 

  1. You are implying/trying to use academic/or economic theory definitions of correlation for actual trading when what my point is that YOU SHOULD USE CORRELATIONS FOR DEFINING MACRO DIRECTION and then trading accordingly.
  2. A specific correlation like RATES is not ALWAYS in play and is NOT ALWAYS the main source to define direction but when it DOES you better be aligned with THAT if you want to reduce drawdown and increase %W!!!!....thats why i mentioned about "we are about to enter in RMT (Rate's Mode trading)...
  3. Understanding fundamentals in trading is not easy and requires time and dedications (like with anything else in life and trading). Undersatanding Correlations can SEEM EXTREMELY easy and simple like reading charts/or TA (as for example Magix make it look with his charts) but don't forget to include the few hundred thousands hours you need to invest until you reach that level of expertise ....before that everything could be very blurry, complicate and illogical....

I think the main problem I perceive also from others posters with RATES/and or FA is that they think you directly trade them, when what you do is use them to establish macro direction and then trade accordingly with other tools for TA and timing !!!!.... but thats a topic for the weekend...

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Whatever the case, All back to work and nothing new in the Euro since last Thursday. Same levels, same all...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,637
  • Edited 3:54am May 5, 2015 3:17am | Edited 3:54am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} . What big boys??? What anticipate??? Who??? you are using a case with the end of the Gold Standard (so fix rates) and more importantly for the discussion: Who on earth o you thing was trading in that time??? The City, NY and the global financial sector DIDINT EVEN EXIST (as we know them now) in that time (the forex trading was in its infancy back then).... Im sure a few private speculators (especially international trade companies) probably bet on the break of the fix and etc but there wasn't SUCH a thing AS BIG BOYS, Hedge Funds,...
Of course people traded back then, including currencies. You just didn't do it over an Internet platform. You had phones and brokers who worked trading pits instead.

Soros comes to mind as one of the big boys. He broke the pound in 92, way before Internet trading took hold (very early adopters started stock trading in about the mid 90s, forex was later) , and before most people even knew what the Internet was. (AOL had only just started in about 91. )

And even though the general public traded less in those days (because it was so expensive to do it) professionals all over the world did. (Aside: The story of Randy McKay, who got one of the first seats for trading currencies at the CME in 72 in 'The New Market Wizards' is a nice read. Those seats were established in 72 precisely because the big boys sniffed profits to be made as a result of the end of Bretton Woods in 71. The interview with Bill Lipshutz, who started trading currencies with Salomon brothers in 81 is a great one too).

I myself engaged in form of currency speculation as a part of my job in the late 70's - early 80s, since the company where I worked used precious metals as part of its production, and our currency was not stable for part of that period. How and when we traded our currency into dollars and used them to buy metals could make or break our profit for the entire year, so getting it right was a major focus for us. (Of course, you're right about one thing - we did it based on our expectations from reading data, and a kind of tape-reading - watching the prices enough to know what they were doing and what was a good one.) I'm sure companies all over the world had similar considerations.

But more to the point, if the principle that interest rates (or expectations about them) affect exchange rates in a certain (predicable, consistent and therefore tradeable) way is a true one, it should hold for all periods where the major framework was in place - i.e all periods of the current framework, which has been in place since Nixon broke Bretton Woods in 71, and it blatantly doesn't hold for 81-84 and 3-2008 to 3-2009

I put it to you that the reason YOU can succeed by analyzing the fundamental data is the same reason that Magix (for example) can by reading the charts. It's more that you've both done it for so long (looked at the data and at the charts respectively) that you both grasp intuitively when something is going to work out one way, and when it will work out another, rather than that there's always a consistently tradable pattern associated with interest rates (or expectations about them) that can be relied on to work, say X% of the time. Which, I guess is a good thing (and a good argument for marking up charts with economic releases). If it was easy, everybody would be able to do it.

Sigh. No trading for me again today. (Why I have so much time for these long posts). What do the rest of you think/do about trading when a major player like the US, EU, UK or Japan is on holiday?
  • #134,638
  • Edited 4:03am May 5, 2015 3:22am | Edited 4:03am
EU: upper mofu 1014, ATR 1013 (chart already posted)

Looking back over that AUD trade- I screwed up. Lost out at both the top and bottom. Both times I was well in profit. Should have stuck with the .50 trade and let it run.

Gonna have to reread all this fundamental mumbojumbo this weekend.
  • #134,639
  • May 5, 2015 4:44am May 5, 2015 4:44am
Quoting sisse
{quote} {quote} ...A specific correlation like RATES is not ALWAYS in play and is NOT ALWAYS the main source to define direction but when it DOES you better be aligned with THAT if you want to reduce drawdown and increase %W!!!!....thats why i mentioned about "we are about to enter in RMT (Rate's Mode trading)... Understanding fundamentals in trading is not easy and requires time and dedications (like with anything else in life and trading). Undersatanding .. sisse
Ah ha. Now I see what you are saying and agree. (missed this before). But, given that rates mode is not always in play, you must have some reasons for thinking that this is going to be one of the times that it will be. Would you mind explaining why
you think that?
  • #134,640
  • May 5, 2015 6:43am May 5, 2015 6:43am
Quoting Pharm0r
Looking back over that AUD trade- I screwed up. Lost out at both the top and bottom. Both times I was well in profit. Should have stuck with the .50 trade and let it run. Gonna have to reread all this fundamental mumbojumbo this weekend.
I'm trying to figure out when you lost the program, dude...

We totally crushed this shit on the WE..

Was really wondering why you were loading the skorties on AUDUSD...
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