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Daily pivot bounce

  • #21
  • May 1, 2015 10:08am May 1, 2015 10:08am
Quoting ralfy
Hi Telliboy I checked a few charts and adding this 100 MA I have noticed that on the daily TF it is much clearer the trend of the currencies, I can see very well where the price is going ten I went down, the 15 TF as I have no 10 min TF and I did notice the price very close to the currency. Suddenly it came to my mind or maybe I read somewhere about following the Big Frame and then go down to a small one and if it is in contrast with the main one just wait to enter the trade until the MA in the small TF will align with the daily TF in other words...
Putting it a simply as possible Ralfy, I use the 30 m time frame with a 100 ma for my major trend indicator, then, when price dips down showing a minor down trend on the 20 ma (I use green for the 20 ma rising and red for the 20 ma falling) towards the daily pivot I switch to the 10 m time frame to pinpoint my entry. Then I use the candles to indicate the bottom. When the bottom candle forms a downward spike or a doji, I see the pullback in the same way that you may see a thrower pulling his arm back in preparation to throw a ball. Does this make sense? Look at the charts and you'll see what I mean.
Tellboy
  • #22
  • May 1, 2015 10:18am May 1, 2015 10:18am
Quoting tellboy
{quote} Hi Ralfy, let me see if I can answer all your questions. Your first question, 'how to figure out the right time to enter the trade'? This is a bit tricky. Today for example I entered too early and got stopped out on the pullback. I suppose its a case of experience really. There is a tendency, when being cautious, to set a stop entry above the last bar when price begins to rise, but then you get stopped out on the pullback. I am still trying to exercise more patience and wait for the pullback at 7 am. It is becoming so predictable that it...
Tellboy,
I appreciate your time and generosity in sharing your system and answering questions. What are the other two MA's that you use on your chart besides the 100 MA? Thanks for your help!
  • #23
  • May 1, 2015 10:31am May 1, 2015 10:31am
Quoting Chango
{quote} Tellboy, I appreciate your time and generosity in sharing your system and answering questions. What are the other two MA's that you use on your chart besides the 100 MA? Thanks for your help!
Hi Chango, I use a 20 ma rising in green and falling in red, and a 50 ma rising in blue and falling in orange. On the 30 m time frame the 20 ma can dip down to touch the 50 or even the 100 before it starts to rise again. If the 20 falls right through the 100 then its time to look at the possible end of the trend. On the 10 m time frame a rising 100 ma is essential for a long position. Sometimes the 20 ma can be seen to cross back over the 100 or 50 ma on the 10 m time frame. The important thing to remember is that the ma's on the 10 m must be moving in the same direction as on the 30 m. Look at the charts and you will see them clearly.
Tellboy
  • #24
  • May 1, 2015 10:44am May 1, 2015 10:44am
Nice, one for the pivot people. Keep it up
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #25
  • May 1, 2015 11:57am May 1, 2015 11:57am
I rather suspect that we may have seen the end of this week's rally of the EUR as it has reached the 11,300 level against USD and touched the 100 ma on the daily chart. I shall take stock of all currency positions after the bank holiday and probably stay out of the market until Wednesday, just to see how things move.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR:USD Fri 1:5:15.jpg Size: 359 KB
Tellboy
  • #26
  • May 2, 2015 10:11am May 2, 2015 10:11am
Hi Tell,

Interesting thread, thanks for sharing.
I trade MAs myself looking left for R/S levels, now I'll pay attention to the daily pivot level as well.
Regards,
k
  • #27
  • Edited 5:13am May 4, 2015 2:40am | Edited 5:13am
Caution has been confirmed together with confirmation that this system works. Look at the charts below to see the pattern in action.

The first chart shows the trend direction changing from bullish to bearish. Price has retraced to the daily pivot on cue and headed downwards. The second chart shows the weakening EUR against AUD, CAD and JPY. Also notice how price action on EUR/JPY is identical to that on EUR/USD.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR:USD Mon 4:5:15.jpg Size: 545 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR pairs Mon 4:5:15.jpg Size: 856 KB


We can now expect to see the same pattern that we have been using for an up-trend now go into reverse for a bear move on the EUR. If we follow the rules we should be able to make some good profits this week. Happy trading to all.
Tellboy
  • #28
  • May 4, 2015 3:18am May 4, 2015 3:18am
Morning Tell
Hope You had a nice week-end and You are right at 7.15 there was the reverse, it just touched the Main Pivot and then all the way down and still going, easy over 50 pips this morning. I see from the chart Your Pivot is the same as mine.I got it from Action Forex 1.1220
  • #29
  • May 4, 2015 3:55am May 4, 2015 3:55am
Thanks for your insight and strategy Tellboy. I'm following with much interest. In terms of the 7:15 time, how does this relate to the forex sessions? Does this equate to the London open or 1hr before roughly?
  • #30
  • May 4, 2015 5:00am May 4, 2015 5:00am
Quoting gwindy
Thanks for your insight and strategy Tellboy. I'm following with much interest. In terms of the 7:15 time, how does this relate to the forex sessions? Does this equate to the London open or 1hr before roughly?
Good morning Gwindy. I'm not absolutely sure on this, but my understanding is that European traders, based on the Frankfurt opening, tend to start their actions at 7 am, which is one hour prior to the official European open, and British traders tend to start at 8 am, which is one hour prior to the official British open. My timings are based on GMT. Does this help?
Tellboy
  • #31
  • May 4, 2015 5:01am May 4, 2015 5:01am
Quoting ralfy
Morning Tell Hope You had a nice week-end and You are right at 7.15 there was the reverse, it just touched the Main Pivot and then all the way down and still going, easy over 50 pips this morning. I see from the chart Your Pivot is the same as mine.I got it from Action Forex 1.1220
Nice one Ralfy.
Tellboy
  • #32
  • May 4, 2015 5:23am May 4, 2015 5:23am
Quoting tellboy
{quote} Good morning Gwindy. I'm not absolutely sure on this, but my understanding is that European traders, based on the Frankfurt opening, tend to start their actions at 7 am, which is one hour prior to the official European open, and British traders tend to start at 8 am, which is one hour prior to the official British open. My timings are based on GMT. Does this help?
Good evening from downunder Telboy Thanks for the reply...that makes total sense.
  • #33
  • May 4, 2015 7:05am May 4, 2015 7:05am
Quoting gwindy
{quote} Good evening from downunder Telboy Thanks for the reply...that makes total sense.
That's probably the middle of the night for you, but if you can structure your operating time to coincide, the strategy will still work.
Tellboy
  • #34
  • May 4, 2015 5:27pm May 4, 2015 5:27pm
Stand by Guys for another bear move on the EUR. Don't trust to luck or gamble. Just follow the rules and hold your nerve. Wait for the pullback to the pivot and then let it run. Have a good trading day.
Tellboy
  • #35
  • May 4, 2015 6:06pm May 4, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting tellboy
Stand by Guys for another bear move on the EUR. Don't trust to luck or gamble. Just follow the rules and hold your nerve. Wait for the pullback to the pivot and then let it run. Have a good trading day.
Why not tellboy. I already sold today when it was rejected at the daily PP it is shown as daily high, since the Pivot just got calculated again ... I am also a pivot trader, will post from time to time. The entry was rather late after the signal, but with a small position it is ok for me to target lower levels when support gives way - after possible retest of new PP.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 14 KB
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #36
  • Edited 3:00am May 5, 2015 12:48am | Edited 3:00am
Good morning Guys. Here is today's set-up at 06:45. Just waiting for the pullback now.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Setup Tues 6:5:15.jpg Size: 777 KB


And here is the outcome. Note that although price did pull back at 7 am, it did not quite reach the daily pivot. Never mind, but be aware that this can sometimes happen if the pivot is a little too far away. The important thing is to wait for the pullback and enter at its high point if possible, or set a stop entry just below price as it rises.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Outcome Tues 5:5:15.jpg Size: 739 KB
Tellboy
  • #37
  • May 5, 2015 12:55am May 5, 2015 12:55am
Quoting tellboy
Good morning Guys. Here is today's set-up at 06:45. Just waiting for the pullback now. {image}
Watching and waiting 1:45pm in the afternoon here in Perth.
  • #38
  • May 5, 2015 1:01am May 5, 2015 1:01am
Quoting tellboy
Good morning Guys. Here is today's set-up at 06:45. Just waiting for the pullback now. {image}
Good Morning to all
Hi Tell Do You always wait for the price to touch the Pivot or even close to it?
  • #39
  • May 5, 2015 3:03am May 5, 2015 3:03am
Quoting ralfy
{quote} Good Morning to all Hi Tell Do You always wait for the price to touch the Pivot or even close to it?
Sometimes it doesn't quite reach the pivot, as happened today. The trick is to wait for the pull back and enter when it starts to retrace down or set a stop entry just below price as it rises. See this mornings outcome for a good illustration.
Tellboy
  • #40
  • May 5, 2015 3:16am May 5, 2015 3:16am
Looks like that unexpected Greece news caused an early sell-off. No time to react to that one I was being safe and waiting until the pull-back candle closed...expect that same candle went south very quickly in time with the Greece news. Not sure the Japanese Bank Holiday helped either. I get the idea and timing of this strategy...very exciting.
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