Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 278 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #5,541
  • Apr 29, 2015 4:15am Apr 29, 2015 4:15am
Quoting PacnyTuH0
Hi Alfonso, During the webinar I couldn't find the chat window so was unable to see or ask any questions. I couldn't find a way to open any chat window. Has there been a problem with any other members with the chat before, or the problem is only with me? Thanks, Boris
There is no chat avaialble, just the questions box, which is the one everybody use. I saw you wrote a question Boris, if it was you

I will be uploading the webinar and post the link later so you can watch it again. Hope that you liked how the scenarios were covered as per the rules.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,542
  • Apr 29, 2015 5:51am Apr 29, 2015 5:51am
On today's webinar we went again through the basics of supply and demand's core rules from the 1st post and this Forex Factory supply thread . The Realignment/Sequence rules are at the core of the rules set.

I had some issues with the sound in the begining, sorry for that, it looks like it was solved after a while.

Most basic rules were covered in this live webinar, we didn't analyze many instruments, since the purpose of the webinar is going through the set of rules, low and high scenarios:

  1. We made a top down analysis for Dollar Index, EUR/USD was the opposte really, USD/MXN (mexican peso) and GBP/JPY
  2. A level of demand is valid IF A) it removes an opposing zone and/or B) it breaks a trendline in the timeframe you are looking at C) It has no opposing area to take out and 3:1 or more profit margin
  3. Bull traps fakeouts at all time highs/lows and no close on the bigger timeframes, USD/MXN monthly chart example covered in detail
  4. Defining the trend is crucial, it will determine which is your bias. We have to pay very close attention to it
  5. We only use trendlines and rectangles to assess trend and draw supply and demand imbalances, no need of any fancy indicators
  6. How to mechanically define a trend using supply and demand imbalances
  7. Using H4 as confirmation at a higher timeframe, same applies to Daily charts
  8. How to use the realignment rules to locate the closest valid imbalance to set and forget a trade
  9. Using 3 months supply and demand imbalances help to make a decision on Monthly imbalances

Thanks for your massive support! Beach time now

Have a great day!
Cheers,
Alfonso
www.set-and-forget.com

Inserted Video
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,543
  • Apr 29, 2015 9:55am Apr 29, 2015 9:55am
Hi Alfonso,

Do you use NY closing charts? And if yes, why?

Boris
  • #5,544
  • Apr 29, 2015 10:10am Apr 29, 2015 10:10am
Quoting PacnyTuH0
Hi Alfonso, Do you use NY closing charts? And if yes, why? Boris
Hi Boris,

I don't know if I use NY charts or not I use the charts my broker is providing me with with D1 close at 10-11 PM depending if it's summer time or not. There are some that say NY charts are better, others that say it's the same, I just trade what I see. I sometimes will miss some trades, other times others will miss other trades. It's just like that, you don't have to lose much sleep over that. You should focus on detecting the levels on your charts, taking high odds trades and accept all losses you may have.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,545
  • Apr 29, 2015 11:23am Apr 29, 2015 11:23am
How is everyone doing the last couple weeks. I have been taking a pretty good beating last week and this. Still up overall, but not nearly as much. Seems markets are trying to do some big reversals
  • #5,546
  • Apr 29, 2015 2:38pm Apr 29, 2015 2:38pm
Hi all,
I just want to thank Alfonso for today's webinar.... What a great teacher .... Hats off to Alfonso
  • #5,547
  • Apr 30, 2015 4:38am Apr 30, 2015 4:38am
Quoting ws121
Hi all, I just want to thank Alfonso for today's webinar.... What a great teacher .... Hats off to Alfonso
Thanks for your kinds words my friend, glad that you liked the webinar! Keep it up!

Thanks for your support.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,548
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:10am Apr 30, 2015 7:10am
Hi Alfonso,
I look forward to join your paid member in set-and-forget community soon..
  • #5,549
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:35am Apr 30, 2015 7:35am
Hi All,


AUDUSD
Mn - Dn Trend
Wk - Dn Trend but Dz in control and TL broken
Daily - Side mkt
H4 - Reversal Setup - H&S

Entry by the blue Box

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  • #5,550
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:40am Apr 30, 2015 7:40am
GBPJPY

Shorting on Daily chart.
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Weekly no direction
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  • #5,551
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:46am Apr 30, 2015 7:46am
Quoting yyc196
GBPJPY Shorting on Daily chart.{image} Weekly no direction {image}
These charts are old. Are you sure you used the right ones?

Price is currently within your weekly supply zone? Is that a valid supply zone actually, cuz it did not remove an opposing weekly demand zone? It only made a lower low...
  • #5,552
  • Edited May 1, 2015 3:48am Apr 30, 2015 3:07pm | Edited May 1, 2015 3:48am
Would be nice to hear what Alfonso or other trader think..

Daily trend is up.. Weekly one trendline is broken, but i have second. Monthly still strong downtrend. My questions is: 1. that second weekly trendline is valid ? 2. And only valid level to short are on weekly and monthly charts ?

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  • #5,553
  • Apr 30, 2015 4:23pm Apr 30, 2015 4:23pm
Good work Alphonso!
Using the FIA, traders need only "Sell the Highs" & "Buy the Lows".
  • #5,554
  • May 3, 2015 8:21am May 3, 2015 8:21am
Hi All,

After a huge fall on USDCHF, the mkt is quite messy, but now i see an opportunity to short.

On the daily chart i see mkt fall from a support level and there is a zone to short this pair.

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Any comments appreciated. Thanks.
  • #5,555
  • May 3, 2015 1:33pm May 3, 2015 1:33pm
How correctly should be painted this zone ?

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  • #5,556
  • May 4, 2015 1:54am May 4, 2015 1:54am
Quoting karolisl
How correctly should be painted this zone ? {image}
This is the way I have that Weekly supply zone for EURUSD painted on my charts. I made it wider because the last 2 months highs is lower (blue beads). Under certain circumstances I will always make the level wider and wait for reactions within it.

Hope it makes sense
Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,557
  • May 4, 2015 2:02am May 4, 2015 2:02am
Quoting yyc196
Hi All, After a huge fall on USDCHF, the mkt is quite messy, but now i see an opportunity to short. On the daily chart i see mkt fall from a support level and there is a zone to short this pair. {image} {image} {image} Any comments appreciated. Thanks.
Remember one thing, since you are using the automatic supply and demand indicator, you are missing important things on your charts. You have levels drawn that are not levels as per the rules and that might influence to take trades that go against the rules since you are biased in one direction because of the incorrectly drawn levels, as I can see on some levels on your USDCHF charts

Be careful.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,558
  • May 4, 2015 2:21am May 4, 2015 2:21am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} This is the way I have that Weekly supply zone for EURUSD painted on my charts. I made it wider because the last 2 months highs is lower (blue beads). Under certain circumstances I will always make the level wider and wait for reactions within it. Hope it makes sense Cheers, Alfonso {image}
So this level is no longer fresh, because it' tested already last week ?
  • #5,559
  • May 4, 2015 4:36am May 4, 2015 4:36am
Quoting karolisl
{quote} So this level is no longer fresh, because it' tested already last week ?
No, a level is tested is price retraces to it and consolidates away with one full OHCL candle. It's now in control. Going long in lower timeframes than the one in control is not a good idea.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #5,560
  • May 4, 2015 4:37am May 4, 2015 4:37am
Set and forget weekly supply short triggered on EUR/CAD weekly supply imbalance. I have a similar short triggered on D1 supply zone nested at the Weekly supply's proximal line.

 

  1. Monthly is down
  2. Weekly is down
  3. Daily out of alignment

Rules say to short at the highest timeframe supply zone in control, that is, weekly supply imbalance. Shorts on lower timeframes could happen on the way down on Daily and H4.

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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