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Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Hi All,

EURUSD has a strong dn trend on the HTF. Looking to short on H1, any comments?
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Quoting yyc196
Hi All, EURUSD has a strong dn trend on the HTF. Looking to short on H1, any comments? {image}{image}{image}{image}{image}
A couple of comments on your EURUSD H1 short. First all all, rules of this thread do not allow H1 charts and trades, it's a swing/position thread, H1 is not used as a timeframe to take entries for medium/longer term trading. Bear that in mind, no H1 charts allowed.

You are using the automatic supply and demand levels indicator, that indicator misses many important pieces, as it did on your D1 and H4 chart, some supply and demand levels are missing there, in fact very impotant zones since CPs are not detected by this indicator.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting karolisl
I'm thinking right ? H4 broken descending trendline and starts uptrend. Daily looks like consolidation ? And weekly cleat strong downtrend. On this attached picture there is only one valid level on Weekly 1.1274 ? {image}
Hello my friend,

I mentioned this in the previous post. You are also using the automatic supply and demand levels indicator, that indicator misses many important pieces, as it did your charts. That will prevent you from detecting very important levels, since this indicator does not know if a level took out an opposing zone or not, broke a trendline or not or if the right imbalance was created. It's easy to drag an indicator and "think" that it's doing it correctly, but just a warning, this indicator fails to draw very important zones and does not follow the rules for valid supply/demand zones many times. Many levels will be great, others won't be because it does not have these rules in the coding.

Regarding the euro, it's in a clear bigger picture downtrend, lots of confluences up there but price could not manage to break lower below MN DZ and previous D1 levels are tested and did not manage to take out opposing Daily demand zone. I am waiting on this one.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting yyc196
GBPUSD - Look to short on daily TF In total, i have 3 pairs to start up for the Week !!! {image}
Be very careful when there has been no candle close when price breaks lower, that's a sign that there are normally good buyers down there, opposing supply zones will be negated and confirmation will be needed. The charts are crowded with bull and bear traps and start with fakeouts and no candle closes.

D1 supply zone has been tested several times, very weak supply zone, there is a new D1 demand zone created lower on GBP/USD since it caused the break of the descending trendline.

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting yyc196
GJ Monthly in UP trend Weekly in no direction and a double bottom Daily - had a potential H&S setup , waiting for the necling to cross and then enter . Any comments? {image} {image} {image}
Similar answer to a previous post. In the community we talked about this D1 short setup on GBP/JPY last week, it was invalidaded because it could not close below Weekly flip zone and previous D1 demand zone. When these scenarios happen, the opposing level that caused that break (but no close) is invalidated). The short is invalidated for exactly that reason. We must also read price action and see what it's doing, a zone is lower odds if it does not attain a candle close below/above previous valid zone and/or flip zone.

Hope it makes sense.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting yyc196
{image}{image}{image}{image} Hi All, EJ - Mn TL borken Weekly dn trend Daily Double Top There are a few opportunities for entry on H4 Personally i favour the 2 zone entry. Any comments? Regards
Read my previous posts, like this one. It also refers to short entries on EURJPY, it did a very similar thing.

Only Monthly demand in control on EURJPY, shorting that low is never a good idea. Which is probably one of the reasons we are getting those fakeouts trying to break lower but no candle closes. See Monthly demand chart attached below. Brand new Monthly supply at the very top. There is a potential monthly supply right above current price but it did not manage to take out opposinig monthly demand in control rigbt now. Not yet valid.

Hope it makes sense.
Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Hi Alfonso,

Many thanks for your patience to explain the chart i put up. Yes, i will remember not to show H1 TF in the future.

As for the indicators i had on my charts i noticed the problem long ago, good reminder. Somehow i never bother too much about it when come to serious consideration.

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NZDJPY
********
Mn n Wk n Dy all 3 TF in Up trend
market has just removed the Sz and moving down to test the Dz on daily TF.
Look to Long

Thanks for any comments.
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Quoting yyc196
Hi Alfonso, Many thanks for your patience to explain the chart i put up. Yes, i will remember not to show H1 TF in the future. As for the indicators i had on my charts i noticed the problem long ago, good reminder. Somehow i never bother too much about it when come to serious consideration. {image}{image} NZDJPY ******** Mn n Wk n Dy all 3 TF in Up trend market has just removed the Sz and moving down to test the Dz on daily TF. Look to Long Thanks for any comments. {image}
Weekly chart is not up NDJ/JPY, price removed 1 WK demand zone, WK has a bullish consolidation now with brand new weekly supply that was almost hit on your chart.
Weekly supply zone is not well drawn by the automatic indicator, it didn't take out the whole basing candle body. Correct supply in red.

In an uptrend, demand is not taken out, it just can't be an uptrend. Hope it makes sense

Weekly supply in control right now, longs is lower odds.


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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Hi Alfonso. If lets say I am trading 4H imbalances with Reward to Risk 3:1 to 4:1 depending on opposing levels or possible resistance points. And I am following all the rules and taking only 9 or 10 poins set and forget settups. What should be my % win rate expectancy for lets say 100 trades?
Will the win rate expectancy go up if I trade D instead of 4H imbalances?
Quoting digitalko
Hi Alfonso. If lets say I am trading 4H imbalances with Reward to Risk 3:1 to 4:1 depending on opposing levels or possible resistance points. And I am following all the rules and taking only 9 or 10 poins set and forget settups. What should be my % win rate expectancy for lets say 100 trades? Will the win rate expectancy go up if I trade D instead of 4H imbalances?
I have not measured that my friend. The lower the timeframe the more trades you will get, the more losses you will also have sooner in time. The thing here is what is your monthly goal in terms of profts? Will you stop when you reach your goal?

The % win rate is very relative, it all will depend on the quality of the levels you take, the bigger picture. Not two traders will ever take the same trades for many reasons, one of them being emotional, another one being that each forex broker has different price feed and levels formation will differ from one broker to the other. I don't like talking about % win rate expectancy because it's very relative. I'm happy with a 60% win rate, even 50%, more? It will be welcome, but not greedy and do not expect more, even though sometimes it will be higher than that because of how the markets are behaving (clear trend)

Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Hello Alfonso,

Thank you for answer.
Are you saying that if applying SD strategy correctly you can get 50% win rate for 3:1 setups?
The reward expectancy is always bind to risk aversion and number of trades taken.
What I am trying to find out is what should win loss trades distribution look like when trading 4H imbalances correctly for example per 100 trades. I am getting 25% win rate per last 40 trades so I am doing something wrong or I am just in the losing streak.

Also do you treat each pair independently and take both trades on correlated pairs, or you pick the one with better formed levels and imbalances?
Hi Alfonso,

A quick question about the USDSGD situation on the Weekly and Monthly...

We see that on the Monthly (left chart) Supply is in control. We approach the MN demand zone 1 that took out previous supply. I assume this is a tradable scenario for going long in that monthly demand.

However my question is about the weekly chart (right chart)...Zone 1 is the monthly demand zone. Zone 2 however is a valid weekly zone as well. Now, would zone 2 be a good buying opportunity since MN supply is in control. Or it would be best to wait until we reach the MN demand zone?

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Thanks,

Boris
Quoting digitalko
Hello Alfonso, Thank you for answer. Are you saying that if applying SD strategy correctly you can get 50% win rate for 3:1 setups? The reward expectancy is always bind to risk aversion and number of trades taken. What I am trying to find out is what should win loss trades distribution look like when trading 4H imbalances correctly for example per 100 trades. I am getting 25% win rate per last 40 trades so I am doing something wrong or I am just in the losing streak. Also do you treat each pair independently and take both trades on correlated pairs,...
Hello my friend,

You must be doing something wrong on your tests, because 25% is just too low. Many traders that took the 3:1 challenge at www.set-and-forget.com community started like that, they lost faith in the beginning but that's normal, you just can't expect to have a high win loss ratio % in the first week or months.

Take a look at the following screenshot, it belongs to a trader that committed to the 3:1 challenge, it took him a few months to have the rules click on him, it just takes time, but when they do, it will change everything.

As you can see, he says he struggled for 6 months, some may take more, it all depends if you believe in what you are doing. In the beginning he was reluctant to test with Forex Tester 2, most will think it's a waste of time (incorrect thing, it's just the opposite), now he's hooked to testing, it must be part of your daily/weekly routine, the same as eating or drinking water. You also have to commit yourself to one single strategy, most traders are trading several strategies, trading just one is very difficult, more than 1? Crazy!

Hope his message helps you.

Cheers,
Alfonso

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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
CADJPY

Monthly - Double H&S setup
Weekly - H&S setup
Daily - It seem to me that the market had already hit the zone, i expect the mkt to come down.
I missed the entry so looking to H4 for opportunity to short.


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Hello fellow traders,

I hope you had a great week, good weather is here, at least where I live, The sun helps to have a better attitude in our daily kife and routine.

A new live webinar will be held this Wednesday 29th April 2015. We'll go through a bunch of instruments and locate possible trade setups and IF THEN scenarios. Those that have been following me for some time will know what an IF THEN scenario is all about.

  1. SUBJECT: Longer term live analysis
  2. DATE: Wednesday 29th April 2015
  3. TIME: 8:00 AM - 9:30 a.m GMT, right at London Open
  4. LINK TO JOIN: fill in this form if you have not joined a previous webinar, else you will have received the email with the link

You can join now, you will be notified by email 1 day and 1 hour before it starts. The webinar will be recorded as always

I'll try to cover all these topics:

  1. Longer term position trading
  2. We'll use the Sequence and The Realignment to locate setups
  3. How to trade with the D1 supply and demand imbalances
  4. Under which conditions we should hold a trade and how
  5. The analysis for longer term trading can be used for intraday trading, that is, you can use smaller timeframe setups to go in the direction of the bigger picture's trend, it will be higher odds than going against the current trend

Have a great Tuesday!
Cheers,
Alfonso

Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Hi Alfonso,

I'm not sure I will be able to attend the webinar tomorrow but since it will be recorded I will be able to watch it later.

Can I ask you to look at the USD/SGD pair. It's very close to monthly and weekly demand levels and I'm a bit confused as to which are the correct ones.

Regards,

Boris
Quoting panoramia
Hello fellow traders, I hope you had a great week, good weather is here, at least where I live, The sun helps to have a better attitude in our daily kife and routine. A new live webinar will be held this Wednesday 29th April 2015. We'll go through a bunch of instruments and locate possible trade setups and IF THEN scenarios. Those that have been following me for some time will know what an IF THEN scenario is all about. SUBJECT: Longer term live analysis DATE: Wednesday 29th April 2015 TIME: 8:00 AM - 9:30 a.m GMT, right at London Open LINK TO JOIN:...
Alfonso, Thanks and I have been waiting for this new live webinar for April.
So, if possible, can you cover EURUSD, AUDUSD and CADUSD on this live webinar?
Simple is powerful all the time.
Quoting RiverTrader
{quote} Alfonso, Thanks and I have been waiting for this new live webinar for April. So, if possible, can you cover EURUSD, AUDUSD and CADUSD on this live webinar?
Will try to cover those my friend! We'll see what the other attendees have to ask as well
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Quoting PacnyTuH0
Hi Alfonso, I'm not sure I will be able to attend the webinar tomorrow but since it will be recorded I will be able to watch it later. Can I ask you to look at the USD/SGD pair. It's very close to monthly and weekly demand levels and I'm a bit confused as to which are the correct ones. Regards, Boris
Will try to cover this one! Hope to see you there if you finally can.
Cheers,
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
Hi Alfonso,

During the webinar I couldn't find the chat window so was unable to see or ask any questions. I couldn't find a way to open any chat window. Has there been a problem with any other members with the chat before, or the problem is only with me?

Thanks,

Boris
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