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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,521
  • May 1, 2015 8:59am May 1, 2015 8:59am
Quoting Pharm0r
Probably going to L the aussie between 7804 and 7814 Rock or Miss- either of you have the 5 day ATR on that? Should be close
I have this
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  • #134,522
  • May 1, 2015 9:01am May 1, 2015 9:01am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} I have this {image}
Perfect

ty

should be heading there now...
  • #134,523
  • May 1, 2015 9:05am May 1, 2015 9:05am
Quoting Rockerzeus
1.1237 short, next one 1.1286 if it will reach there.
Added 1.1282
  • #134,524
  • May 1, 2015 9:13am May 1, 2015 9:13am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Added 1.1282
nice add
  • #134,525
  • May 1, 2015 9:18am May 1, 2015 9:18am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} nice add
Thanks. I may add another one at 1.1344 and SL will be 1.1380 for all. TP is around 1.0980
  • #134,526
  • May 1, 2015 9:20am May 1, 2015 9:20am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} Damn, why haven't we met a couple of years ago? If you cut the chart you posted in 2 halves... what changed between the 2 parts? Is the current monthly candle a technical (bounce-)candle or a fundamentally influenced one? The FED didn't give a date to hike the rates, which equally means they've expanded the window to buy dollars for the moment the hike happens. Would we want to buy dollars at the current rate (or a fortnight ago), or at a discount? The numbers coming from the...
I was mostly lurking. Used to hang out over in Cobra's thread but after he left and TraderatHome switched to Sonic only a few people were willing to post their ideas. Everybody else just kept asking the same questions over and over.

Just for the sake of comparison of the historical effect of the FED rate cycles: A picture or two is worth a 1000 words. In the first chart the blue graph is the FED funds rate and the green is the DXY. Red lines are where the interest rate cycle changes from raising to lowering, Blue ones are the reverse, from lowering to raising. Dashed lines are where you don't get the expected effect.

Second chart, same as first except I replaced the graph of the Fed with the DJIA, which is black. Marking for the changes in interest rate cycles is the same.

Very interesting idea.
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  • #134,527
  • May 1, 2015 9:33am May 1, 2015 9:33am
Quoting Pharm0r
Probably going to L the aussie between 7804 and 7814 Rock or Miss- either of you have the 5 day ATR on that? Should be close
I have this. Black lines are monthly mids, green are weekly. Where you get those clusters make nice places to trade in a zone you already like. The ADRLow and ADR high are for a mixed day with the ADR split evenly from the open. The LB High and LBLow are for a long or short day with the Low calced by subtracting the ADR from the day's high if price is below the open and added to the day's low if price is above it.
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  • #134,528
  • May 1, 2015 9:42am May 1, 2015 9:42am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I was mostly lurking. Used to hang out over in Cobra's thread but after he left and TraderatHome switched to Sonic only a few people were willing to post their ideas. Everybody else just kept asking the same questions over and over. Just for the sake of comparison of the historical effect of the FED rate cycles: A picture or two is worth a 1000 words. In the first chart the blue graph is the FED funds rate and the green is the DXY. Red lines are where the interest rate cycle changes from raising to lowering, Blue ones are the reverse, from...
Okay, don't move, stay exactly here. That first chart you posted offers me some homework for tonight. Will be back in a couple of hours. Awesome.
  • #134,529
  • May 1, 2015 9:44am May 1, 2015 9:44am
Hatch literally hasn't been this excited since 2012.

Thanks Miss, I'm in the hot zone now, so I'll have to check it as I can...

first L added it's small, maybe 5-10 pips early....watching for tired candles.
  • #134,530
  • May 1, 2015 9:48am May 1, 2015 9:48am
By the way Miss, thanks for getting rid of those nasty colors

I wasn't gonna say anything and just deal with it...
  • #134,531
  • May 1, 2015 10:07am May 1, 2015 10:07am
Quoting Pharm0r
Hatch literally hasn't been this excited since 2012. Thanks Miss, I'm in the hot zone now, so I'll have to check it as I can... first L added it's small, maybe 5-10 pips early....watching for tired candles.

You're welcome. Have a good weekend, all.
  • #134,532
  • May 1, 2015 10:16am May 1, 2015 10:16am
Hm... just a thought on the dxy-interest-rate-chart. The world (with respect to interest) has changed dramatically. While in the past, the differentials might have been bigger/smaller, rates are now equally low with a few exceptions. That basically excludes any "non-reaction", any delay in responsiveness or any contradictory outcome.
  • #134,533
  • May 1, 2015 10:43am May 1, 2015 10:43am
USDOLLAR D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #134,534
  • May 1, 2015 10:54am May 1, 2015 10:54am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} I was mostly lurking. Used to hang out over in Cobra's thread but after he left and TraderatHome switched to Sonic only a few people were willing to post their ideas. Everybody else just kept asking the same questions over and over. Just for the sake of comparison of the historical effect of the FED rate cycles: A picture or two is worth a 1000 words. In the first chart the blue graph is the FED funds rate and the green is the DXY. Red lines are where the interest rate cycle changes from raising to lowering, Blue ones are the reverse, from...

Hi Misspips,

great charts and research. I did similar a few weeks ago but not with rates but with QE (which itself is kind of rate decrease).

You can read here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...01#post8199001


One can not stress enough: the oftentimes advocated correlation plays do not exist (at least not constantly).

When one, as a trader, bet on it, how high is the chance to be right? 50:50? And as our charts show, when rate hikes (-decreases) come, one simply can not say when and if this event will kick in into the currency valuation.One can be wrong by a few thousand pips, easily.


I also had an exchange about the this topic with FxTyrant. You can start here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post8199044


Keep up the good work
  • #134,535
  • May 1, 2015 10:56am May 1, 2015 10:56am
Quoting Pharm0r
Hatch literally hasn't been this excited since 2012. Thanks Miss, I'm in the hot zone now, so I'll have to check it as I can... first L added it's small, maybe 5-10 pips early....watching for tired candles.
Strapped in, ready to go.
  • #134,536
  • May 1, 2015 11:03am May 1, 2015 11:03am
Someone remind me to remind Ken of excluding the travelling salesman.
  • #134,537
  • May 1, 2015 11:24am May 1, 2015 11:24am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} ... One can not stress enough: the oftentimes advocated correlation plays do not exist (at least not constantly). When one, as a trader, bet on it, how high is the chance to be right? 50:50? And as our charts show, when rate hikes (-decreases) come, one simply can not say when and if this event will kick in into the currency valuation.One can be wrong by a few thousand pips, easily......
Just overlay the rate of aussie or kiwi on aussie or kiwi chart for 5 years or 10 years length, it will be clear that the rate correlation play does not work. Forget about rate, just look at the chart. It is all in the chart.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #134,538
  • May 1, 2015 11:29am May 1, 2015 11:29am
15M just yelled apple on AUD...it's a start, has to start somewhere.

Out till later, stops 5 below the low. Have a good weekend folks
  • #134,539
  • May 1, 2015 11:34am May 1, 2015 11:34am
Quoting Mr Hatch
Someone remind me to remind Ken of excluding the travelling salesman.

Someone remind me to knock on your door with one of my ice-axes, scaramouch........
  • #134,540
  • May 1, 2015 3:48pm May 1, 2015 3:48pm
for future reference
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