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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,381
  • Apr 29, 2015 11:00am Apr 29, 2015 11:00am
Quoting Mr Hatch
{quote} when c**** is rare, they f*** a bear
maybe where you live. Over here it's sheep
  • #134,382
  • Apr 29, 2015 11:02am Apr 29, 2015 11:02am
Quoting lfcfanatic
Sorry Pharm0r, What does 'still pay swap' means?
Sorry I misspoke, i didn;t mean swap- I mean interest on positions

they'll still pay the interest you would naturally get for holding/buying/selling currencies, but they will no longer pay you interest just for having money in the account. At least that's how I read it.

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/help/polici...te-calculation
  • #134,383
  • Apr 29, 2015 11:11am Apr 29, 2015 11:11am
Quoting lfcfanatic
Hi all, Does this means that it'd be pointless to do any sort of carry trade with Oanda from 1st May 2015 onwards? Dear Valued Client, Due to the current interest rate environment with rates near or below zero, we will be setting OANDA cash balance rates to zero as of April 30, 2015. The administrative overhead to manage interest payments is significant across our 6 regulated entities. Setting account balance interest rate to zero enables us to continue to offer you tight spreads with no incremental fees. We will continue to pay and charge interest...
They just don't pay interest for the money in your account anymore, even if the fed (or any other cb, depending on the currency your account is based on) hikes.
  • #134,384
  • Apr 29, 2015 11:42am Apr 29, 2015 11:42am
once again terrible number out of US.
numbers are just not aligning anymore..

over to FOMC..
  • #134,385
  • Apr 29, 2015 11:42am Apr 29, 2015 11:42am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} {quote} {image}
V. Nicely done.!!!

In my case, I still have the strong after taste of swapping those longs from the bottom to play the minion short mini wave last week instead of sitting tight and riding the main swing...nothing worst than being right, and having to watch the market rally non stop without you ...that was very amateurish...in any case at least I grabbed the crumbs from the news at 1.112x and now sadly flat and getting ready for the FOMC.

sisse

Quoting sisse
... expecting quite active sessions on the technical side as this is the last short term wave(s) before we get in the in hikes trading mode from next month.

  1. For the current smaller GDP news until NY open expecting a direct and simple moves pre FOMC. 1.097x[check] is the only level to track (its the only intraday level in play too).
  2. ...To the other side direct trade to 1.112x [check]

[/highlight]...

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,386
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:00pm Apr 29, 2015 12:00pm
any takers out there for the FOMC, W/M roll ?....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,387
  • Edited 12:13pm Apr 29, 2015 12:02pm | Edited 12:13pm
Quoting sisse
any takers out there for the FOMC, W/M roll ?.... sisse
What are your expectations after fomc... May we see a 300-400 pips up or down like the last time??
  • #134,388
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:09pm Apr 29, 2015 12:09pm
Quoting hoom
[apr 14 2015] euro is pretty much done with the swing low from 1.1xx handle and now trading water till ECB , the push and hold under 1.058x last couple of days is what worries me as it delivers a strong bearish signal across the board , a breather above 1.07x is norm , .... , positionning pre ECB is crucial for next swing , leg down to 1.049x would clearly open sub 1.02xx else 1.077x and above would make the leg up to the highs more viable through 1.11x handle for the rest of the month . 1.127x is a level where I would look before parity in most cases.

hoom
cleared board of longs...although I closed a major one from 1.058x due to greece concerns last week...waiting for FOMC and Monthly roll to set up for the next range/mini-swing in play.....GL

hoom
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,389
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:11pm Apr 29, 2015 12:11pm
Thanks for taking time to explain Pharm0r and Mr Hatch.
  • #134,390
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:17pm Apr 29, 2015 12:17pm
all i know i need to see this before weekend "If my view right" Technically
Attached Image
  • #134,391
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:17pm Apr 29, 2015 12:17pm
Quoting sisse
any takers out there for the FOMC, W/M roll ?.... sisse
it should be nasty, but I fully expect a more of a non-event/delaying etc to be honest, but I would not trade this.. all in all, I would not be upset if we were hawkish . in case of delays, levels are sub 1.14xx?? to the other side 1.1040 at least and then 1.0880
  • #134,392
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:26pm Apr 29, 2015 12:26pm
My yearly chart, points of interest
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bpic.jpg Size: 745 KB
  • #134,393
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:31pm Apr 29, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting sisse
any takers out there for the FOMC, W/M roll ?.... sisse
Just watching for a hawkish FU- so I can have a good laugh at the fallout

Otherwise just enjoying the afternoon and paying bills
  • #134,394
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:34pm Apr 29, 2015 12:34pm
Quoting sisse
any takers out there for the FOMC, W/M roll ?.... sisse
1.1286 top than down to 1.0952.
  • #134,395
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:34pm Apr 29, 2015 12:34pm
Quoting sisse
any takers out there for the FOMC, W/M roll ?.... sisse
Pending EU short @1202. If this breached then 1288 for the day.
  • #134,396
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:39pm Apr 29, 2015 12:39pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} 1.1286 top than down to 1.0952.
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} Pending EU short @1202. If this breached then 1288 for the day.
so you think that 1.127x is simple to breach and print 1.128x ...interesting ...

hoom
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #134,397
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:45pm Apr 29, 2015 12:45pm
will try some yen shorts at 119.19, risk 15...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #134,398
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:49pm Apr 29, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} {quote} so you think that 1.127x is simple to breach and print 1.128x ...interesting ... hoom
127x not in my radar. Will you please share what's the significant of it?
  • #134,399
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:49pm Apr 29, 2015 12:49pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} {quote} so you think that 1.127x is simple to breach and print 1.128x ...interesting ... hoom
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} I have 1.1172 and 1.1227-1.1237 .
1.1237 comes from quarterly calculations and start of swing to 1.0222

1.1286 is the possible extension

1.1308
1.1289
1.1270 from weekly

and

1.1312
1.1286
1.1259 from monthly calculations
  • #134,400
  • Apr 29, 2015 12:51pm Apr 29, 2015 12:51pm
so we have the majority staying sidelined, a couple of sellers and couple of zig zag up and down.... well GL all and will see how it pans out. My view for the euro:

On the fundamental side not expecting much.

  1. Only a surprise on hawkish comments will caught most the market with the pants down (short term) and will trigger a massive selloff, but these scenario looks very far from reality.
  2. Expecting a mildish/"nothing new" on the FED with tangentially some small hints on the expectations of last bad numbers but in general,
  3. HIKES ARE coming in September so from mid/end MAY will enter officially in RATES mode trading till the summer.

On the technical side

  1. Key levels in play with a play that extends to the W/M roll combo.
  2. For the second time this year we have MID TERM macro swing levels in play. 1.122x is KEY and only macro level in play until the M/W roll for the leg to PARITY.
  3. We also have MAIN SWING levels in play until the W roll and next Tuesday that Europe comes back from Holidays. 1.126x is key level for the swing to the lows and 1.022x with strong intermediate stops in between the last range.
  4. To complete the package we gave MACRO and MAIN KEY dollar retrace for the continuation leg. 94.0x holding opens the moon (meaning hikes later) in the USD.

For the actual flows

  1. There is not much left. Bastards rode the meat of the meat before the noise but without surprises on the FOMC (otherwise is a one leg to yearly low in hours) the simple technical plays for the M/W rolls are the ones in action:
  2. 1.112x only level to track for the daily close for a simple play to 1.121x with extension (exhaustion leg) to 1.128x.
  3. Failure to hold 1.112x will open limited but fast retrace to 1.105x with max extension to the low of handle until the W/M roll

GL all

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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