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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,301
  • Edited 8:06am Apr 28, 2015 7:50am | Edited 8:06am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} American election: Nov 2016. I don't know about the correlation between presidency and USD strength, but looking into the time frame, there is still time for EU to reach parity before the election noise actually starts to kick in. Right now, imho, it is a preparation for the leg to parity. Everybody wants to short higher. I think that this can be the last time we reach the 1.1-1.12 level, then we are going to the lows, how low? I think 1.06x first, and then new LL has to be created (1.02x?), but whether to 1.0?...
People said that the last time we reached .10xx What makes this time different? Most times a fourth test leads to a break, this is the 3rd if when we get there. FOMC tomorrow and we are within 100 pips or so of the high...which has had 2 months worth of stops built up above it.

Quoting MissPips
{quote} Don't have the announcements, but here DXY compared to terms. Except for Reagan, who was a known quantity his second term, you can see there's this topping out/bottoming out consolidation, and then a big change each time {image}
I believe people are tired of Democratic president. Barry wasn't exactly all he promised to be...then again since Kennedy who has been? When has the vote mattered anyway among people. I only say this based on what I hear in the streets- obviously state to state this can be different. Lately we've been flip-flopping presidents (demo/republican) and historically democrats usually hold office for shorter periods of time.

We all know what R do to the dxy. Depending on how deep this pull back is, a R might coincide with that trendline you have drawn. I'm sure there's a mid in there to coincide with too. All about timing...

Carly Fiorina is running from Virginia. Shes a hottie. Has my vote.
  • #134,302
  • Apr 28, 2015 8:05am Apr 28, 2015 8:05am
Quoting MissPips
Okay guys, I'm just going to throw this one out there and see what you think. ..... What had just changed? The US presidential candidates have just announced themselves recently. What do you all think?
It's overstretching to say the least ... US election has absolutely no impact whatsoever in the current market. It usually has none and worst nearly 1 and 1/2 years ahead ....

Quoting lux_interior
I'm inclined to think that most of the slow grind back up from 1.05x is profit-taking of longer-term shorts from higher up, ahead of the FOMC. Most of these market participants are front-running the anticipated dollar interest rate hike, rather than Euro QE, which is now already a fact. To get another impulse of dollar buying is going to need new buyers entering the market. The trigger for that will be that the Fed unambiguously signals that it is imminently going to raise interest rates. At the moment, the Fed has stated that it wishes to raise...
I agree with most of your comments. The meat and easy part of the ECB QE initial move is already gone in the last 1st Quarter. Also FED is the rain maker for timing. Markets already digested no hikes in June, now we are in the September play (3/4 of the market is expecting summer hikes).

As you say, a more dovish that usual FED opening Q1 2016 for broad market expectations in hikes and we will get an extended consolidation (with low volatility)for a few months (until June/July). Anything in between will create a wide range swing wise (1.13xx / 1.04xx)opening a test of both sides in the next couple of months before the hikes....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,303
  • Apr 28, 2015 8:40am Apr 28, 2015 8:40am
I have a rather fundamental question that I've been thinking about and would like to see your opinion.

In 2 correlated markets, let's say EUR/USD and GPB/USD where if movement is caused by the common denominator (USD) buying and selling, both move in the same direction, and
one market (GPB/USD) is moving by the activity of buying and selling, would the other(EUR/USD) move if there is no activity in it what so ever?
  • #134,304
  • Apr 28, 2015 8:48am Apr 28, 2015 8:48am
Quoting ws121
I have a rather fundamental question that I've been thinking about and would like to see your opinion. In 2 correlated markets, let's say EUR/USD and GPB/USD where if movement is caused by the common denominator (USD) buying and selling, both move in the same direction, and one market (GPB/USD) is moving by the activity of buying and selling, would the other(EUR/USD) move if there is no activity in it what so ever?
Of course- the underlying asset (in this case USD) is still being bought and sold.
  • #134,305
  • Apr 28, 2015 8:50am Apr 28, 2015 8:50am
Quoting ws121
I have a rather fundamental question that I've been thinking about and would like to see your opinion. In 2 correlated markets, let's say EUR/USD and GPB/USD where if movement is caused by the common denominator (USD) buying and selling, both move in the same direction, and one market (GPB/USD) is moving by the activity of buying and selling, would the other(EUR/USD) move if there is no activity in it what so ever?
don't understand what you are asking, if there would be only 1 denominator the USD, there is no difference between the EUR and the GBP and due to arbitrating trade would be forced to both pairs
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #134,306
  • Apr 28, 2015 8:54am Apr 28, 2015 8:54am
well here we go for the only pre FED positioning chance.

Expecting slightly positive numbers. An inline or better than expected number to trigger profit taking from last week with 1.097x naked for a test to roll around inside the FOMC range around 1.088x. A miss open exhaustion move intraday with the 1.10xx handle as a stealth resistance until tomorrow for a roll around the handle.

GL all planning to trade today and / or tomorrow and well done all that rode the last leg from below...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,307
  • Apr 28, 2015 8:58am Apr 28, 2015 8:58am
Quoting sisse
{quote} It's overstretching to say the least ... US election has absolutely no impact whatsoever in the current market. It usually has none and worst nearly 1 and 1/2 years ahead .... {quote} I agree with most of your comments. The meat and easy part of the ECB QE initial move is already gone in the last 1st Quarter. Also FED is the rain maker for timing. Markets already digested no hikes in June, now we are in the September play (3/4 of the market is expecting summer hikes). As you say, a more dovish that usual FED opening Q1 2016 for broad market...
Well, you can see clearly from that chart of the DXY that wide consolidations followed by big runs in the opposite direction have coincided with changes in which party was in control in the US - not immediately but over the long term. (This seems fairly logical as the policies of the two parties are different). (The exception is Reagan, who had a reversal in the middle of his service, which coincided with his reelection and he had actually changed his economic policy so that by his second term he had ended up raising taxes 11 times, increasing public expenditures and increasing government borrowing relative to his predecessors - which is the opposite of the platform Republicans usually get elected for. ) So I'd say the macro policies of the parties do have something to do with the currency, if only indirectly through their effect on the economy.

It is a bit early but the only thing in the macro picture that's changed recently that I can see is who is throwing their hat in the ring. I suspect Big Data already knows who most people are going to vote for.
  • #134,308
  • Apr 28, 2015 9:01am Apr 28, 2015 9:01am
CAD is taking a shit- I'm on it.
  • #134,309
  • Apr 28, 2015 9:06am Apr 28, 2015 9:06am
Quoting sisse
well here we go for the only pre FED positioning chance.
On those numbers I can't see the Feb coming out with an unequivocal hawkish stance.
Which means, more profit taking will be triggered and EU will break above the April highs.

Sadly, I've got underwater shorts from below which I'm now going to have to cover...
  • #134,310
  • Apr 28, 2015 9:18am Apr 28, 2015 9:18am
EURUSD cannot stay the same, remain the same at 1.07xxx. This is history. Even Iranian seize US now.
  • #134,311
  • Apr 28, 2015 9:27am Apr 28, 2015 9:27am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Well, you can see clearly from that chart of the DXY that wide consolidations followed by big runs in the opposite direction have coincided with changes in which party was in control in the US - ...
oh well you are talking about a economic policies and what is the impact on the whole presidential periods not about the pre pre election noise.

Sure there are a few academic studies that show that correlation. You will need to go a bit deeper in your test with a proper econometric regression model if you really want to find the proper correlation (if any) but thats either a political economy or economist exercise more than a trading exercise ... what I can guarantee you is that US elections is not even remotely in the cards for markets at least in the next 3 quarters ....

Quoting lux_interior
{quote} On those numbers I can't see the Feb coming out with an unequivocal hawkish stance. Which means, more profit taking will be triggered and EU will break above the April highs. Sadly, I've got underwater shorts from below which I'm now going to have to cover...
You meant dovish? (otherwise it will selloff) ...well my 2 cents, DONT jump the gun just yet. Any hints of hikes WILL always come with DOLLAR on the lows to avoid unnecessary strength before the hikes...right now we are at monthly lows in the dollar....

Also don't forget that the last +30 days we are just JUST TRADING INSIDE THE LAST FOMC BAR!!!. In simple words, what we moved in 1 day with the FED that day it has taken nearly 40 days to cover top to bottom and we are back to square one exactly one day before the new announcement....What it means is, that expectations are JUST fully digested and we will need a extra North from the FED tomorrow if we are going to go even further ....

We'll see. For now 1.097x tested as expected and weaker numbers keep coming from the US .... the ball is on the FED court till tomorrow...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,312
  • Apr 28, 2015 9:28am Apr 28, 2015 9:28am
Done, all closed

1.10 likely to see some PT.

Quoting jakucha
Probably a bit contrarian here, but I have a target around 1.0970 on the long side. Bought the small news dip this morning, given some convincing impulses up in the last fews days. Booked some short after LC, we'll see how it goes. {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 431 KB
Hidden in plain sight.
  • #134,313
  • Apr 28, 2015 9:37am Apr 28, 2015 9:37am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Of course- the underlying asset (in this case USD) is still being bought and sold.
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} don't understand what you are asking, if there would be only 1 denominator the USD, there is no difference between the EUR and the GBP and due to arbitrating trade would be forced to both pairs
Thank for that. I was confused whether or not the activity has to be taken place in the specified market. All clear now, thanks
  • #134,314
  • Edited 12:39pm Apr 28, 2015 11:40am | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting Pharm0r
CAD is taking a shit- I'm on it.
Closed for an unexpected 2 % on the end of month.

Nothing going into tomorrow.....EU looking tasty again. Bitch just wont stop calling my name...
  • #134,315
  • Apr 28, 2015 11:42am Apr 28, 2015 11:42am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} People said that the last time we reached .10xx What makes this time different? Most times a fourth test leads to a break, this is the 3rd if when we get there. FOMC tomorrow and we are within 100 pips or so of the high...which has had 2 months worth of stops built up above it. {quote} I believe people are tired of Democratic president. Barry wasn't exactly all he promised to be...then again since Kennedy who has been? When has the vote mattered anyway among people. I only say this based on what I hear in the streets- obviously state...
The difference, in my view, is timing. Last time it was too quick, didn't create a HH, only 1.103, plus it all happened too quickly without London and the rest of the world on board. Otherwise, I guess it would have tested 1.04 at least, but it didn't. Of course it is just my speculation. It is easy to talk about things afterwards.

This time, the timing is slightly more into Q2. Everybody has budgets to meet. Every market participant is positioning, and mostly anticipating a hike this year (Jun/Jul/Sep/Dec). The pair will be down and up, and down and up, until the hike date is confirmed. But how many real "ups" and how high can each "up" really reach? We have a saying in Chinese that the same thing does not happen more than three times. With a strong downtrend, 1.11-1.12 levels could only be visited that many times, and then they should become part of the history.
But of course, just my speculation. I am no technician, but more macro and business oriented.
Can 1.13 be visited? I highly doubt it. We were there, traded there, now with the actual QE going on, 1.13 should be part of the history now, at least from a macro perspective, technically I guess it could, but technically the air up there is extremely thin as well. (We haven't even broken 1.105 yet. Maybe this time with the help of FOMC.)

May the green pips be with all of us!
  • #134,316
  • Edited 12:19pm Apr 28, 2015 11:48am | Edited 12:19pm
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} We have a saying in Chinese that the same thing does not happen more than three times.
What is that saying? Specifically? Very interested to hear/read it

Timing.....the timing was right for a reversal, I said it numerous times two weeks and 450 pips ago. A Green monthly is a big deal, tomorrow is the last chance of the month, sitting in the bear end-zone.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post8194364

.10xx is the risk, I may sneak a short in there with the smallest risk possible- aint over until the fat lady sings...but even a spinner at this point is indicative of bulls. At the monthly, spinners aren't often broken, neither are green candles after 9 consecutive red.

With that said- I still believe in sub parity, but not before a retrace, which seems like will come in the summer with rate hikes
  • #134,317
  • Apr 28, 2015 12:58pm Apr 28, 2015 12:58pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} What is that saying? Specifically? Very interested to hear/read it Timing.....the timing was right for a reversal, I said it numerous times two weeks and 450 pips ago. A Green monthly is a big deal, tomorrow is the last chance of the month, sitting in the bear end-zone. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post8194364 .10xx is the risk, I may sneak a short in there with the smallest risk possible- aint over until the fat lady sings...but even a spinner at this point is indicative of bulls. At the monthly,...
Nothing fancy, just a rule of thumb that ancestors passed on, hehe...literally just the same thing doesn't happen more than 3 times, so don't make the same mistakes more than three times, as you won't be forgiven the 4th time, or don't miss the same opportunity three times, as it won't come along again. How interesting that the Elliot Wave theory also talks about implusive waves coming in 3 phases. I guess it is just human psychology.

Here is what Stan Druckenmiller said in an interview with Bloomberg a week ago:

STAN DRUCKENMILLER: Well, I think the divergence between the flipping and divergence of monetary policies between the United States and Europe in May of 2014, presented a textbook opportunity in currencies where we were tapering, ending QE. They were going to start QE. They had gone to a negative deposit rate. We are, frankly, at least, flirting with some day getting off the zero bound, and the Euro was over valued for a long, long time because they were shrinking their balance sheet while we were increasing ours, and I’ve never seen a major currency trend last less than two years, and it’s only been ten months, so it would be remarkable to me if the run on the Euro was over. It wouldn’t be remarkable if we paused for a while the way the Yen did in 2013 and went sideways, so that’s one big bet that hasn’t changed for quite a while.

I understand your point of a potential retrace...but...how can I trade on that "potential retrace"? For the time being, and at current levels, I am only short biased.
I also remember Bloomberg showed a survey among big banks last week or so, the majority (around 60%) think EU at 1.06 at the end of Q2, over 30% aim at 1.0. Just for our reference. April can be a green bar. But May can possibly be red. I took a look at the 2006-2007 period. It was near all green.

With the opinion of "potential retrace", my mind right now is trying to balance the Fear of Missing the Trade and the Fear of Lossing the Trade as I am short biased, hehe... Any suggestions?

  • #134,318
  • Apr 28, 2015 1:15pm Apr 28, 2015 1:15pm
My first suggestion is to stop quoting / believing anything you hear from the used car salesmen (bloomerburg, etc)

Second is stop fearing anything regrading trading.

Third is what the fuck is a Stan Druckenmiller?
  • #134,319
  • Apr 28, 2015 1:39pm Apr 28, 2015 1:39pm
tomorrow is an exciting day and of course the eur will sleep soon until the fomc.

i have nothing really to track other than the fomc top 1.1040. scalping off the intraday top here 1.0890 to see if we drift down to have some sort of position going pre fomc. other than I expect this will be really dull
  • #134,320
  • Apr 28, 2015 2:01pm Apr 28, 2015 2:01pm
PTL, even though you didnt get your bid, that was a great call..
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