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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,281
  • Apr 28, 2015 2:30am Apr 28, 2015 2:30am
Quoting maldegnegi
{quote} Dear Sisse, Why do you say same levels, I'd really like to understand. The pair has been correcting the drop it suffered from mid 1.0660s. Previous resistances turned into support and it looks like it seeks new levels to identify support and resistance areas. At the moment from a high time frame perspective 1.0710 - 1.0775 and 1.0810 are all supports, resistance is so far not known since the price did break 1.0900 but it doesnt look like it is over yet. Maybe after the second attempt we may have a better idea. I really would like to understand...
I was referring about the next few sessions ...

Quoting sisse
{quote} Expecting mini range 1.088x / 1,078x until the FOMC so trading accordingly. FED will open the rest with a fresh monthin official pre hikes mode if we don't get any surprises with the FED.... GL bro this week... sisse
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,282
  • Apr 28, 2015 2:39am Apr 28, 2015 2:39am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} moved stop to BE
Good morning,

I managed to enter the short as well, stop at BE. What would be your target? My entry-logic would yield 1.037, but I'm pretty unsure right now...
Got a short UJ at 119.36 as well (@BE), and seems that one of them has to go...
Fail better.
  • #134,283
  • Apr 28, 2015 2:40am Apr 28, 2015 2:40am
Quoting sisse
{quote} I was referring about the next few sessions ... {quote} sisse
Aha OK, tought you ignore yesterday's move above 1.09xx and see it probably a stop hunting job in an illiquid session.
  • #134,284
  • Apr 28, 2015 3:01am Apr 28, 2015 3:01am
Quoting LarryDarrell
{quote} Good morning, I managed to enter the short as well, stop at BE. What would be your target? My entry-logic would yield 1.037, but I'm pretty unsure right now... Got a short UJ at 119.36 as well (@BE), and seems that one of them has to go...
Hi Larry,
no target, playing the $-levels, still not overly confident about position, would hate a LL on daily USDOLLAR, lets see, market looks a bit nervous atm
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #134,285
  • Apr 28, 2015 4:15am Apr 28, 2015 4:15am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} moved stop to BE
stopped
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #134,286
  • Apr 28, 2015 4:34am Apr 28, 2015 4:34am
Dollar is dying to break that support no room for me to trade until after FOMC, good luck guys and gals

Eyes on CAD for a long around 1.1858 and GBP short around 1.5722, hand in hand....both a few days away maybe next week. Bottom will have to fall out of USDx

EU is trash to me until next month.
  • #134,287
  • Apr 28, 2015 5:18am Apr 28, 2015 5:18am
Okay guys, I'm just going to throw this one out there and see what you think. The market is a discounting mechanism, as we all know, meaning that it anticipates the future. It seems that nothing should have changed in the longer tf fundamental outlook for the EURUSD because the US has stopped QE and the Europeans are just starting. The US economy is recovering, if in fits and starts and Europe is still way behind in that. There's going to be an interest rate hike sooner or later in the US, while European bonds are trading with negative yields.The US has cheap energy, and jobs are being on-shored again. So the fundies for the US look much better than for the EZ. BUT....

What had just changed?

The US presidential candidates have just announced themselves recently. It's probably going
to be Hillary vs Rand, Rubio or Cruz. Could the market already be pricing in that Hillary's going to lose? Historically Democratic presidents have been associated with a stronger dollar and Republicans with a weak one, the exception being Reagan, who presided over a rising dollar in his first term and a falling one his second.

What do you all think?
  • #134,288
  • Apr 28, 2015 5:59am Apr 28, 2015 5:59am
I think, that I sincerely hope Hillary doesn't get it. Hell hath no fury like a woman's scorn....Bill better watch out. Not against women holding office- but I am against women who may have a score to settle holding office. If you think she's long forgotten about it- think again. You don't live down public humiliation like that.

That is an interesting theory though- but I wonder if the market isn't more focused on Greece, rate hikes now- and the presidential elections once we are further down that road. Would be interesting to plot presidential announcements / outcomes on a dxy chart...

Onto the QE part though- when you put the QE timeline on a DXY chart....it doesn't quite go straight to hell as people suggest. In fact- the US QE started in Q4 2008....the bottom of the dollar was found and never revisited in Q1 2008. Absolutely, if you plot it by quarters, there was an immediate negative impact on the dxy each release announcement (Q4 '08, Q4 '10, Q3 '12) but even so....DXY continued to make HH and HL...or at very least- range looking at the quarterly 25 year chart. QE 3 was hardly anything of note

Fundamentally EU and US QE is different of course...but at it's most basic form- it's still an increase in supply.
  • #134,289
  • Apr 28, 2015 5:59am Apr 28, 2015 5:59am
waiting for the next line @ 11.745

USDOLLAR D1:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0039.png Size: 55 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #134,290
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:05am Apr 28, 2015 6:05am
Quoting USD-Bear
waiting for the next line @ 11.745 USDOLLAR D1: {image}
oh it broke!! At work, son of a bitch I was hoping for it to at least wait until tomorrow

Mind sharing your insight on my above post concerning the dxy and QE. I know you follow dxy much more closely than myself, and I believe have the advantage of following it during the respective QE's (before my forex trading days)
  • #134,291
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:06am Apr 28, 2015 6:06am
Quoting MissPips
Okay guys, I'm just going to throw this one out there and see what you think. The market is a discounting mechanism, as we all know, meaning that it anticipates the future. It seems that nothing should have changed in the longer tf fundamental outlook for the EURUSD because the US has stopped QE and the Europeans are just starting. The US economy is recovering, if in fits and starts and Europe is still way behind in that. There's going to be an interest rate hike sooner or later in the US, while European bonds are trading with negative yields.The...
American election: Nov 2016.
I don't know about the correlation between presidency and USD strength, but looking into the time frame, there is still time for EU to reach parity before the election noise actually starts to kick in.

Right now, imho, it is a preparation for the leg to parity. Everybody wants to short higher. I think that this can be the last time we reach the 1.1-1.12 level, then we are going to the lows, how low? I think 1.06x first, and then new LL has to be created (1.02x?), but whether to 1.0? I don't know, maybe towards Sep.

To be honest, I am more concerned about whether EU is able to go to the highs to fill my orders rather than worrying about the trend change.

Good luck to all of us!
  • #134,292
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:21am Apr 28, 2015 6:21am
Quoting Pharm0r
I think, that I sincerely hope Hillary doesn't get it. Hell hath no fury like a woman's scorn....Bill better watch out. Not against women holding office- but I am against women who may have a score to settle holding office. If you think she's long forgotten about it- think again. You don't live down public humiliation like that. That is an interesting theory though- but I wonder if the market isn't more focused on Greece, rate hikes now- and the presidential elections once we are further down that road. Would be interesting to plot presidential...
Don't have the announcements, but here DXY compared to terms. Except for Reagan, who was a known quantity his second term, you can see there's this
topping out/bottoming out consolidation, and then a big change each time
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: presdxy.jpg Size: 462 KB
  • #134,293
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:39am Apr 28, 2015 6:39am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} oh it broke!! At work, son of a bitch I was hoping for it to at least wait until tomorrow Mind sharing your insight on my above post concerning the dxy and QE. I know you follow dxy much more closely than myself, and I believe have the advantage of following it during the respective QE's (before my forex trading days)
don't think its wise to overlay US's QE and it's effects on currencies with Europe's QE and it's possible effects.
The fundamentals clearly point towards continuation of USD strength and Euro weakness and I still think that's the next major move but...
Europe isn't the US, US leading, Europe's QE very much questioned about, positive effects from oil, currency depreciation and US's recovery might lead to an end of Europe's QE a lot faster than projected with inflation as a trigger.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #134,294
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:46am Apr 28, 2015 6:46am
Quoting Shunyi
{quote} American election: Nov 2016. I don't know about the correlation between presidency and USD strength, but looking into the time frame, there is still time for EU to reach parity before the election noise actually starts to kick in. Right now, imho, it is a preparation for the leg to parity. Everybody wants to short higher. I think that this can be the last time we reach the 1.1-1.12 level, then we are going to the lows, how low? I think 1.06x first, and then new LL has to be created (1.02x?), but whether to 1.0? I don't know, maybe towards...
Well, if there's going to be a trend change because that is what its doing, you can see posted that there are big areas where it see-saws around in a big range after a new president is elected before it really gets going. Something to watch for if a new leg of the current downtrend doesn't materialize. Normally I might agree with you that it's a bit early, but data mining and forecasting gets more sophisticated all the time, so that's got me thinking if the market isn't discounting major events sooner than it used to (like it seems to have done with the EZ QE and Fed tampering -er tapering/hikes. It started that last summer, way before the events took place. For example with Obama I think it might have started early (early fall 2008) because it was so clear that the Republicans were going to get punished. And I have a feeling the Dems are going to
get punished this time.
  • #134,295
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:14am Apr 28, 2015 7:14am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} don't think its wise to overlay US's QE and it's effects on currencies with Europe's QE and it's possible effects. The fundamentals clearly point towards continuation of USD strength and Euro weakness and I still think that's the next major move but... Europe isn't the US, US leading, Europe's QE very much questioned about, positive effects from oil, currency depreciation and US's recovery might lead to an end of Europe's QE a lot faster than projected with inflation as a trigger.
I agree. Just one thing, EZ has many countries that are lacking behind, the big influence of German data on the EZ data might be misleading. EZ has to figure out a new form of QE to balance the countries. We will have to wait and see. But again, I am looking into Sep. Cannot make judgements for further time frames.
  • #134,296
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:17am Apr 28, 2015 7:17am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Well, if there's going to be a trend change because that is what its doing, you can see posted that there are big areas where it see-saws around in a big range after a new president is elected before it really gets going. Something to watch for if a new leg of the current downtrend doesn't materialize. Normally I might agree with you that it's a bit early, but data mining and forecasting gets more sophisticated all the time, so that's got me thinking if the market isn't discounting major events sooner than it used to (like it seems to have...
Thanks a lot for the info! Well, as I am not American nor interested in American politics, I was actually not fully aware of the effects different parties have on the currency. Will start looking into it in due time.

Good luck to all of us!
  • #134,297
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:29am Apr 28, 2015 7:29am
Quoting maldegnegi
{quote} Aha OK, tought you ignore yesterday's move above 1.09xx and see it probably a stop hunting job in an illiquid session.
Well yes i am really ignoring intraday moves in the euro since last week until the FOMC/month moves. Euro keeps trading air and grinding higher a dozen of ticks a pop on every micro pullback intraday but its nothing to see if you are not holding from below (1.071x).

I am only tracking 1.088x / 1.078x range until then...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,298
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:44am Apr 28, 2015 7:44am
I'm inclined to think that most of the slow grind back up from 1.05x is profit-taking of longer-term shorts from higher up, ahead of the FOMC. Most of these market participants are front-running the anticipated dollar interest rate hike, rather than Euro QE, which is now already a fact.
To get another impulse of dollar buying is going to need new buyers entering the market. The trigger for that will be that the Fed unambiguously signals that it is imminently going to raise interest rates. At the moment, the Fed has stated that it wishes to raise rates, if it can, but doesn't feel quite ready yet.

Unless the Fed states clearly that it believes the Q1 data to be an aberration and is on track to raise rates this year, then we may see an acceleration of profit-taking. A break above the April highs will run stops and we may see EU get to 1.130x (the 23.6% retrace of the 1.399x high) or even 1.182x (38.2%) if the Fed continues to lack commitment in Q2.
  • #134,299
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:49am Apr 28, 2015 7:49am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} don't think its wise to overlay US's QE and it's effects on currencies with Europe's QE and it's possible effects. The fundamentals clearly point towards continuation of USD strength and Euro weakness and I still think that's the next major move but... Europe isn't the US, US leading, Europe's QE very much questioned about, positive effects from oil, currency depreciation and US's recovery might lead to an end of Europe's QE a lot faster than projected with inflation as a trigger.
Thank you for the reply, I don't disagree or agree- but all things can be charted- if not the US QE....what other example do we have regarding the effects of QE on a modern economy? Perhaps I can find a better answer/example....
  • #134,300
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:50am Apr 28, 2015 7:50am
Quoting PayTheLimit
and will work some bids in the euro at 1.0849....bbl, gl, PTL...
missed em, so I can em...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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