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  • #1,901
  • Apr 25, 2015 4:50pm Apr 25, 2015 4:50pm
Quick one for you Davit.

Speculative futures, net long positions increased by 6th largest on record. Good for your CAD or though I am still be weary of it testing resistance above and waiting.
Good luck buddy which ever way you position in.
  • #1,902
  • Apr 25, 2015 11:02pm Apr 25, 2015 11:02pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi ASI That's difficult cross to trade because daily range is 150+ means either you get it right or get stopped out or prepare DD I don't trade it.I have not touched this for over a year. From the chart if I had to make a trade I would short it.
For the pairs with volatile movement I (now) use a reduced order size and trust my judgment until either my target is hit or I've been proven wrong, though I primarily for pairs which yield a positive rate swap (though I don't trade in "exotics" where the real carry-trade rate gains can be made -- not yet, anyway). I didn't always do that, preferring to put all my eggs in the two best against the two worst currencies baskets, but now that I'm trading perhaps once a week based on broader overall movements I'm less keen to be babysitting my trades all the time.

Since I trade in actual currency rather than future lots I have more flexibility to do this than some (I've held positions as low as $2,500 which is a tenth of a standard cash lot/two currency future lots), but non-standard lots (standard lots being roughly based on what $25,000 U.S. bought when the Euro was created) can take entire seconds or even minutes to fill, though that's seldom a serious issue -- worrying about missing out on a few dollars will just give you stress and nowadays avoiding stress is how I try to define my day.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,903
  • Apr 26, 2015 8:05am Apr 26, 2015 8:05am
Quoting squawk
Quick one for you Davit. Speculative futures, net long positions increased by 6th largest on record. Good for your CAD or though I am still be weary of it testing resistance above and waiting. Good luck buddy which ever way you position in.
Thanks Squawk
I build my positions smaller then before giving myself good trading power in case I have to add to my positions.
In case of Cad even if it goes 24-25 I would not mind at all.
Fundamentally USD has been overbought cross the board and we may go into longer term corrections on all majors since there are many clear signs US economy has lost lots of steam or it was never really there -adding part time CVS senior jobs and holiday season extra help means little even though that inflated employment numbers for the joy of democrats but present numbers can't hide the truth anymore.
I am in belief that even if Yellen increases rate by .25 in Sept that may have little impact.Case similar was when NZ increased the rate right after plunged down and since has not recovered.Anyway thanks for stopping by.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,904
  • Apr 26, 2015 8:08am Apr 26, 2015 8:08am
Quoting KADC
{quote}nowadays avoiding stress is how I try to define my day
Likewise my trading has been ZERO stress since 2015 and ironically last 4 months have been spectacular for me.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,905
  • Apr 26, 2015 8:15am Apr 26, 2015 8:15am
Week ahead
BOC Gov Poloz Speaks on TUES and Thurs
He has been Hawkish of late and I may add more CAD longs (short USD)
Weds Fed neeting
I anticipate bull rebound up to Weds then crash sell of USD
Will look for opertunity to sell USD

That's my game plan
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,906
  • Apr 26, 2015 8:47am Apr 26, 2015 8:47am
Quoting Davit
Week ahead BOC Gov Poloz Speaks on TUES and Thurs He has been Hawkish of late and I may add more CAD longs (short USD) Weds Fed neeting I anticipate bull rebound up to Weds then crash sell of USD Will look for opertunity to sell USD That's my game plan
Hi Davit, so are you still holding any short position on U/C?

I m looking at a short term long until 2400 is hit. Then from there, I am looking to add more more shorts. 2400 seems like a legit solid resistance there at Daily Chart.
  • #1,907
  • Apr 26, 2015 9:02am Apr 26, 2015 9:02am
Quoting FxLapozi
{quote} Hi Davit, so are you still holding any short position on U/C? I m looking at a short term long until 2400 is hit. Then from there, I am looking to add more more shorts. 2400 seems like a legit solid resistance there at Daily Chart.
Yes I have 4 positions but they are relatively modest in size.I reserve my troops for better numbers but place enough orders in case it goes south from 2180 I'll be in trade worth being.
I trade differently then most here and reasonable DD is part of my trading style.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,908
  • Apr 26, 2015 6:16pm Apr 26, 2015 6:16pm
Quoting Davit
Week ahead BOC Gov Poloz Speaks on TUES and Thurs He has been Hawkish of late and I may add more CAD longs (short USD) Weds Fed neeting I anticipate bull rebound up to Weds then crash sell of USD Will look for opertunity to sell USD That's my game plan
With an election in October, I am confident there will be nothing but hawkish statements from Poloz, Oliver (Minister of Finance), and Harper (Prime Minister). Carney was loyal to Goldman Sachs and Flaherty was loyal to the Conservative Party, but both took their jobs seriously and told it like it is (much to the consternation of the Prime Minister). Poloz and Oliver on the other hand are nothing but political toadies. That surprise rate drop in March was a political gambit to ensure the Loonie had nowhere to go but up leading into the election. Expect to see more talk of rate hikes if oil prices start to fall again to keep the Loonie elevated. Regardless of which party wins, the hawkish tone will disappear after the election.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,909
  • Edited 7:48pm Apr 26, 2015 6:41pm | Edited 7:48pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} With an election in October, I am confident there will be nothing but hawkish statements from Poloz, Oliver (Minister of Finance), and Harper (Prime Minister). Carney was loyal to Goldman Sachs and Flaherty was loyal to the Conservative Party, but both took their jobs seriously and told it like it is (much to the consternation of the Prime Minister). Poloz and Oliver on the other hand are nothing but political toadies. That surprise rate drop in March was a political gambit to ensure the Loonie had nowhere to go but up leading into the election....
Hi Kadc
So you kind of anticipate after MAY2nd election Loonie may deflate? Interesting how this plays out up to that.
To me as long as there is no clear sign of IR hike from Yellen I will continue to short USD.
Edit
Asia opened with good UC selling already.
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,910
  • Apr 26, 2015 7:55pm Apr 26, 2015 7:55pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Kadc So you kind of anticipate after MAY2nd election Loonie may deflate? Interesting how this plays out up to that. To me as long as there is no clear sign of IR hike from Yellen I will continue to short USD. REgards
I'm not sure what election you may be thinking of, but the federal election in Canada is tentatively scheduled for October 19th, 2015.

I agree that a U.S. rate hike was only so much (unconvincing) talk. Should a rate hike actually take place, having already been priced in, and with a further rate hike almost unthinkable, I would expect the U.S. dollar to take an immediate nosedive.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,911
  • Apr 26, 2015 8:31pm Apr 26, 2015 8:31pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} I'm not sure what election you may be thinking of, but the federal election in Canada is tentatively scheduled for October 19th, 2015. I agree that a U.S. rate hike was only so much (unconvincing) talk. Should a rate hike actually take place, having already been priced in, and with a further rate hike almost unthinkable, I would expect the U.S. dollar to take an immediate nosedive.
I thought Fed elections were on MAY 2nd
I must of looked something wrong like local.You are correct OCT 19th. Plenty of time to build equity!
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,912
  • Apr 26, 2015 8:51pm Apr 26, 2015 8:51pm
Its interesting how quickly priced went up (yellow box) but opposite could be true as well.This area is fast sand.If it breaks 1.20 I am holding for lower
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,913
  • Apr 26, 2015 9:29pm Apr 26, 2015 9:29pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I thought Fed elections were on MAY 2nd I must of looked something wrong like local.You are correct OCT 19th. Plenty of time to build equity!
In Canada, a federal election can be called at any time provided no term lasts more than five years. This generally leads to elections being called while the ruling party is sitting favourably in the polls or before the public becomes aware of something particularly bad or postponed until the government can ram though as much unpopular legislation as possible which is the current situation.

In 2009 they added a rule that elections would fall automatically on the third Monday in October four years after the last election if an election isn't called (or forced to be called) beforehand which is why the October 19th date is only tentative. The 2011 election was in May because of a Breach of Parliament (the Conservatives refused to reveal budgetary details; specifically, how much the F-35s they decided to purchase that no-one including our military wanted actually cost) that occurred 37 days earlier in April. Though the Conservatives have been using public funds to campaign for at least a year, the actual election period is generally under two months.

Technically, Harper could call the election for as soon as the end of May (30 day requirement I believe) if he wanted to. He won't though. He's taking advantage of his majority to ram though as much treasonous and unpopular legislation as possible, including changing election laws to his favour, while he can.

Anyway, yeah, it should be a clear run for CAD until just after Thanksgiving. (Canadian Thanksgiving)
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #1,914
  • Apr 26, 2015 9:47pm Apr 26, 2015 9:47pm
Quoting KADC
{quote} In Canada, a federal election can be called at any time provided no term lasts more than five years. This generally leads to elections being called while the ruling party is sitting favourably in the polls or before the public becomes aware of something particularly bad or postponed until the government can ram though as much unpopular legislation as possible which is the current situation. In 2009 they added a rule that elections would fall automatically on the third Monday in October four years after the last election if an election isn't...
Thanks for your valuable inputs.As a Canadian your insights are very appreciated!
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,915
  • Edited 9:05am Apr 27, 2015 8:53am | Edited 9:05am
closed my UC shorts at 2122
gain of 2% equity recent shorts and overall April gain of 37.17%

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,916
  • Apr 27, 2015 9:03am Apr 27, 2015 9:03am
Price is at previous sopport
Hoping for a bounce to build another set of shorts
Yen is holding up which is good news for bounce up.Usually breakdown of UJ tumbles everything else as well
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,917
  • Apr 27, 2015 12:04pm Apr 27, 2015 12:04pm
GU is getting close to 786 important fib number.
I am gearing up for USD bounce.Weds Feds day could do it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,918
  • Apr 27, 2015 12:20pm Apr 27, 2015 12:20pm
Watching EG for long.
Waiting to see if 71 may be touched then I'll build my longs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,919
  • Apr 27, 2015 1:01pm Apr 27, 2015 1:01pm
I know lot of traders expect bounce retrace etc. Action = Reaction.Only issue that is neglected to mention is TIME
Euro went 38 to 07 practically without much reaction and reaction could still come but depends on Time and fundamentals.
Not to understate fundamentals everything depends on it. Last time AU touched 1.10 was in 2011 and we may not see that number for 10years if not more.

Placed limit Shorts on UC 2150 2170 2180 and I may get filled on Feds Weds
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,920
  • Apr 27, 2015 2:28pm Apr 27, 2015 2:28pm
Quoting Davit
I know lot of traders expect bounce retrace etc. Action = Reaction.Only issue that is neglected to mention is TIME Euro went 38 to 07 practically without much reaction and reaction could still come but depends on Time and fundamentals. Not to understate fundamentals everything depends on it. Last time AU touched 1.10 was in 2011 and we may not see that number for 10years if not more. Placed limit Shorts on UC 2150 2170 2180 and I may get filled on Feds Weds
The same was true with the fall of the Yen. I kept waiting for a significant pullback but the USD/JPY went straight from 0.78 to 1.00 without taking a single breather. Then from 100 to 120 there was but a single pullback at 110. Of course, that's just price action, but even if you look at RSI like I do the buying pressure for USD/JPY never let up over months of movement. Of course, that's relative to timescale as there's always some reaction if you scale down small enough.

Then there's the telling sign when there's a lack of reaction. Take the prior two days in gold with 10 a.m. volume surges pushing price down with no driving fundamental news for example. Volume tapered off immediately after the move and price sat there like a dead fish. No bounce. No follow through. Natural markets don't move like that and central bank manipulation would have either bought back their positions when price hit their target causing a bounce or kept pouring sell orders until price action developed its own momentum. These were clearly large sell orders that the market had no interest in getting behind, and sure enough, today someone picked those orders up and price is right back were it left off before the last plunge.

So, yes, timing is far more important than trying to pick tops and bottoms to get in and out at. I get in, add if a better price presents itself, add again when it start moving in my favour, and take reasonable profit along the way.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
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