DislikedSome great posts this week with loads of good ideas and helpful suggestions so heres my conclusion from this weeks trading with the new strategy.. Time of day is as important as ever and even though I've been playing around with Frankies hour this week. I'm convinced we should wait for LO and NYO to happen then look for the first colour change on our 120HMA. After the first colour change of the session look for a nice strong AB move crossing our 120HMA.. Look to trade the first couple of CCI signals, its been suggested to let the first one pass...Ignored
Trading is as simple as ABCD
- #5,583
- Apr 25, 2015 7:09am Apr 25, 2015 7:09am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,584
- Apr 25, 2015 7:16am Apr 25, 2015 7:16am
- | Joined Jul 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,319 Posts
Lord, Liar, Lunatic. Those are only 3 options to Christ's diety claim.
I just started reading Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. Still in Chapter 1, but this it is good stuff. I swear he reached into the future and saw my brain and wrote about my experiences. I'm sure many of us would say the same thing. When you get a chance, check it out.
Now maybe it is time to read that
- #5,587
- Apr 25, 2015 9:01am Apr 25, 2015 9:01am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} I would say you're "right on" by taking the first two CCI entries after a trend change, they seem to work out best. As far as staying in the trade to capture longer runs my advise would be to break your lot size down into two equal parts and enter both at the same time. Take the first lot off at some predetermined pip level, say 10 pips, and let the second half ride. I don't know about the rest of you but I get a bit disappointed if I'm up say 10 pips and I allow the trade to come back to BE or lose a few pips. So I would always recommend...
Wise words my friend and I am testament to the BE trade after BE trade trying to catch longer runs. The thing is they are very easy to see after the fact but the devils own to catch trading in real time. The reason is of course that we see these runs afterwards and imagine they will happen every time but of course thats not the truth.
The truth is that most times they only go 10 or so pips and then come right back over our entry but of course we don't see those ones when we look back, because we're not looking for them. No we're only looking for the big runners and see them everytime. But you try trading these signals and you're find one every bloody time.
Not really surprising because theres a lot more instances of price running back over your entry than keep running....
Only thing I'm thinking is by concentrating on the reversals just after each open when the money is coming to the table, that we do have a fair chance of catching the bigger runner...
I'm researching the LO and NYO to see which pairs tend to run and whether as Mr V. says if theres a relationship between a currency being weak across the board and a runner happening in that currency. That makes sense to me and Mr V obviously...Still gotta catch that pair though...
Heres what I'm thinking, watch out for a currency to go weak across the board, then look to our currency strength meter to see which one is top and bottom and go for that pair as it makes sense to trade the strongest against the weakest.
For instance if GBP is weak across the board and AUD is top of the strength meter then sell GBPAUD as described above trying to add on every pullback until the HMA turns over, probably trailing stops behind every HL until stopped out, that way sucking as many pips as possible out of the run...
Worth a try next week and see how it goes, if we catch one or two like that it could be worthwhile...
Can but try....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,589
- Edited 10:23am Apr 25, 2015 10:02am | Edited 10:23am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} Maybe div is the answer to get bigger trades? I don't know if that's true, will have to check quite a bit. If you observe the image, there is a bit of Divergence, and the first entry candle gives about 25 pips and the second entry about 60 pips! {image}
I personally wouldn't get too carried away with the Divergence theory, I think if you look there are plenty of times when divergence simply doesn't work. Its the way our belief systems work, we are always looking for evidence to back up our personal beliefs whilst at the same time ignoring any evidence to the contrary. Like our friend Friska says it doesn't stand on its own as a way to trade, more of a confirmation...
However that said those two signals work and there appears to be divergence but I'll rather believe (my personal belief of course so not a fact) that the reason these two took off was the time of day when the big money boys are throwing their weight about...
Thats why I believe we will get bigger runs by trading the slope reversals just after the actual open occurs...
Also on the current theory that the second signal is usually better than the first, that again makes perfect sense to me as whats happening is the first signal is a handful of traders banking thier profits after a nice run down. Then having seen that first minor pullback, the remaining traders holding their overnight sell positions get a bit edgy and concerned that a possible reversal is on the cards and they are looking for the right time to get out with as much profit as possible.
So they wait for the next push down thinking to squeeze out the last pip of profit from their trades by closing as close to the last low as they dare without getting left holding the baby....
Well all of a sudden they all start to exit at the same time and the mad panic that follows as they frantically try to bank their profits causes the much better longer 2nd move...So much banking goes on it doesn't come back because the vast majority of former sellers are now actively banking as hard as they can....
And that is our opportunity to jump on board the 2nd pullback and get a firm start to the new up trend that is about to start...
Remember trading is only about making money , nothing else, they invest and then they must bank to take profit, thats why you see these hard reversals after a fairly good push one way first.... Also they don't want to be left holding the baby and taking a loss on the move..This is also why price moves in waves and constantly waves back over the start of the move, because the guys investing on the way down will bank right the way back up to where the original move came from, hence the constant retesting of entries etc..
learn from them, its the only way to make money trading...
A invest, B bank, C reinvest, D bank......Simple as ABCD.....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,591
- Apr 25, 2015 10:45am Apr 25, 2015 10:45am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} Aren't those just LH HH? {quote} Clive for exits you can see how much the pair is trending. Yesterday I went long in GBPUSD (posted here) and didn't close it at 10pips because the trend was very strong and it was also the right time of the day... I think these big trenders come only with LO NYO and London Close... We have to watch... Maybe we can check the slope of the MA in combination with the CCI
Yes exactly, the time of day is absolutely crucial to when to hold and also hold the first 2 or 3 entries then look to Orphan hug the rest...
Heres why this happens have a look at this typical chart of the three opens all together. I have seen this pattern time after time so it can't be a coincidence. The vertical lines denote market opens, so we have brown fro Asia open , yellow Frankie, Green LO and red NYO then dark red is EUR close...
This is GBPCHF just look at the very obvious one market feeding the other... Asia takes it down, London takes it up and then down and finally NYO takes it back up...
Why does this happen???
You have to remember how the market works, after ASia has sold it overnight there are a lot of sellers sitting there waiting to see what Londons going to do with it. All a bit tweaky getting ready to jump ship if it goes up. But will hold if London takes it further down.
London, on the other hand, sees its loaded with sellers so can use this to their advantage and provide the liquidity they need to get their money into the market. They couldn't care less where their money goes but do need the liquidity of the heavily loaded GBPCHF to get it into the market. So they tweak all the sellers by driving it up and all the overnight sellers feed the buying spree. Now London takes it back down ready for New York to buy the nuts off of it to make their money and help London take their profits too..
Now if I was a cynic , I might suggest this was all pre-planned by the 6 big banks getting together and agreeing to do just that, so their Tokyo traders sell it making money the London department buys it to help its Tokyo branch make its money then drive it back down ready for the New York departments to drive it back up making their money...
See how it works everyones happy because someone was prepared to help them bank their profits....and the next day it starts all over again, how else can you explain such swings in price??? Nothing to do with fundamentals and please, don't try to tell me that the GBPCHF fundamentals changed 4 times in one day????
Anyway who cares why it happens lets just try and make as much money as we can by just following the 1 minute trend as it swings from one direction to the other...
Follow that money boys, thats all you can do....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,592
- Apr 25, 2015 11:12am Apr 25, 2015 11:12am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: I'm not here... or am I? | 4,000 Posts
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
- #5,593
- Apr 25, 2015 11:31am Apr 25, 2015 11:31am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
{quote} I couldn't agree more. I use this a bit differently though. I take the mental advantage of having banked something (for me this is half position at 1:1) and then take the trade advantage of being able to keep my second half at full SL with having to go to BE as I am now at a net BE with the first half closed out covering the second half. If the worst happens and my SL is hit I lose nothing so while it is still a net BE I still banked something and allowed the second half more room to breath. This works well for me specifically when trading...
Hi Pres78
Yep thats where I got the idea from, your "paper break even" trade. Great way to hold through the first entry then rinse and repeat on 2nd and if you get them to stick, you've banked a whole position and got a whole position going forward. Worth a go on the first reversal just after the opens...or maybe just after a major news release with a big differential where we might expect a bit of a run...
Trouble is I've been going through a lot of charts , through nearly every open LO and NYO this month looking at all the biggest moving pairs and to be honest its not looking that great. I can see why I get knocked off at BE so often and why holding is a bit of a mugs game. The ones that go look great but the problem is there are so many that simply don't go more than about 30 to 40 pips...
The 30 to 40 pip moves are the high probability setups that we're going to see. That being the case then another way of doing it might be to bank the whole position on first CCI signal and lets say you made 10 pips. Then use that 10 pips to hold the 2nd CCI signal so you leave your stop at 10 pips to give the 2nd a chance to retest and go...
If it works you've banked a whole position and you've got a whole position running and as long as you get the first 10 pips if it doesn't go you've had a BE..
Guess its all about managing that risk...
I would only suggest this on the first reversal after the opens or maybe the mid morning LO reversal that quite often appears to be the low or high of the day as New York tends to go the opposite way to LO initial move so either carries on with the mid morning reversal or reverses LOs first move..
So generally I'd say orphan grabbing nearly all the time and maybe one go at the grab and hold first 2 CCIs just after the opens both LO and NYO. But after one go give up on the idea of holding, too frustrating..
Just my opinion mind....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,595
- Edited 12:13pm Apr 25, 2015 11:47am | Edited 12:13pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Going through all these charts has been interesting and although I can see its difficult to know when somethings going to be worth holding I think just after market opens are worth a go plus maybe Londons mid morning reversal??? It appears to quite often be the low or high of the day, of course as usual looks great looking back but how do we know which ones going to go??
Hers a few charts that appear to be making the daily high or low of the day..at LO's mid morning move..
What we know for a fact is that the high and low of the day are guaranteed to be a 120HMA slope change but the problem is which one???
Hers a few charts that appear to be making the daily high or low of the day..at LO's mid morning move..
What we know for a fact is that the high and low of the day are guaranteed to be a 120HMA slope change but the problem is which one???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,596
- Apr 25, 2015 12:08pm Apr 25, 2015 12:08pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
I've been through a lot of charts today and I'm not convinced we could rely on anything in particular when it comes to trying to hold a few trades as theres not a repeatable pattern that we could rely on. However I'd say theres typically maybe three times of the day when we might try to get something to stick and hold for the bigger run, but its gonna be very hit and miss.
1) Just after the market opens , look for a reversal on the 120HMA, both LO and NYO.
2) Londons mid morning reversal can be the low or high of the day so might be worth a go..
3) Markets tend to reverse each others previous move so if somethings driven up the page in the London session then if it reverses might be worth a go..
Heres a couple of LO/NYO reversals
I wouldn't say any of them are racing certainties more of a give it a go scenario, which suggests we're better off just grabbing little orphans all day, but again around the market opens are best or mid morning reversal or Europe close can be nice..
The bottom line for me is we are never gonna know when something is going to turn into a runner but the better entries are just after the slope changes for sure..Maybe the best way forward is to bank the first move then ride the second??? Using the first moves profit as a hard stop..
The point is they are all so easy to see after the fact but the devils own to catch as you trade...
Simple it is, easy its not....
1) Just after the market opens , look for a reversal on the 120HMA, both LO and NYO.
2) Londons mid morning reversal can be the low or high of the day so might be worth a go..
3) Markets tend to reverse each others previous move so if somethings driven up the page in the London session then if it reverses might be worth a go..
Heres a couple of LO/NYO reversals
I wouldn't say any of them are racing certainties more of a give it a go scenario, which suggests we're better off just grabbing little orphans all day, but again around the market opens are best or mid morning reversal or Europe close can be nice..
The bottom line for me is we are never gonna know when something is going to turn into a runner but the better entries are just after the slope changes for sure..Maybe the best way forward is to bank the first move then ride the second??? Using the first moves profit as a hard stop..
The point is they are all so easy to see after the fact but the devils own to catch as you trade...
Simple it is, easy its not....
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,597
- Edited 1:59pm Apr 25, 2015 12:44pm | Edited 1:59pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Last post of the day on the subject of how to catch longer runs...
Something Martin said to me recently was to trade the hrly CCI signals..so how about we apply the same strategy to our hrly charts??
heres GBPJPY hrly chart and the first CCI signal after a slope change..
Now if we look on the 1 min chart for the first red to green 120HMA slope change and enter on first 2 CCI signals and hold until hrly 120HMA turns red again..
Exit when hrly 120HMA turns red about 120 pips later so 2 nice trades 120 x 2 = 240 pips...very nice too..assuming they stuck of course, but if they didn't just rinse and repeat until you get a couple to stick.
Now that makes sense to me using the hrly CCI signals and maybe we could take it one step further and just look at hrly strong trenders???
Just a thought..
Something Martin said to me recently was to trade the hrly CCI signals..so how about we apply the same strategy to our hrly charts??
heres GBPJPY hrly chart and the first CCI signal after a slope change..
Now if we look on the 1 min chart for the first red to green 120HMA slope change and enter on first 2 CCI signals and hold until hrly 120HMA turns red again..
Exit when hrly 120HMA turns red about 120 pips later so 2 nice trades 120 x 2 = 240 pips...very nice too..assuming they stuck of course, but if they didn't just rinse and repeat until you get a couple to stick.
Now that makes sense to me using the hrly CCI signals and maybe we could take it one step further and just look at hrly strong trenders???
Just a thought..
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,598
- Apr 25, 2015 1:01pm Apr 25, 2015 1:01pm
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Just quickly look at this 15 min strong trender GBPCAD looks amazing doesn't it and look at the smooth 120HMA turn...How about trading the 15 min strong trender like this dropping down to 1 min chart and entering on every turn up on the 1 min 120HMA???
This is probably my way of trading higher time frames from my 1 minute chart....
Gotta go spend sometime with my lovely Claire God knows why she puts up with me...???
This is probably my way of trading higher time frames from my 1 minute chart....
Gotta go spend sometime with my lovely Claire God knows why she puts up with me...???
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!
- #5,600
- Apr 26, 2015 6:55am Apr 26, 2015 6:55am
- Joined Nov 2010 | Status: Trader | 4,484 Posts
Hi Clive, I believe you are on the right track with 1 min trading but I respectfully still think you are thinking about stuff way too much! You do a huge post on what happens and why you think it happens only to end that post with 'Anyway who cares why it happens lets just try and make as much money as we can by just following the 1 minute trend as it swings from one direction to the other'! Why not just leave it at the last statement? All the other stuff is just peripheral junk clouding the obvious! I believe the system you are traAll the best...
Yep I reckon you're right just need to keep it simple and get on with it, spend far too much time posting and over analyzing a very simple concept...
- Time of day just after market opens..
- When 120HMA changes colour take next 2 CCI signals..
- Hold until 120 HMA changes colour again.
- Don't over trade just take 3 or 4 entries per Session..risking 1% across 10 pips.
There you go thats it......
Feel the Fear and do it anyway!!!