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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,721
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:53am Apr 23, 2015 11:53am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Well, I guess it was partially right. We did have a bounce after hitting the fib support, but I entered to early. Had to leave the market at break even before the eur/usd bounced back from the 23.6% fib support at around 1.06700. I got a small long in after that, but missed most of the rise to 1.0840. Currently shorting eur/usd from 1.08440, and my targets are 1.08000, 1.07500, 1.07300/200, 1.07000, 1.06700 initially. TP set at 1.05700, but I'm thinking it's unlikely to happen in a single day. If we remain in the downside by the end of Friday...
Hi VermillionAre you looking at Geppy today? The price seems exhausted at top somehow :-? Im looking for short opportunities over at 181.2 but it might not reach there :-s and GU is stalled at 1.505 i would short if it reach 1.513 though. What's your point of view on Gbp in general?
  • #10,722
  • Apr 23, 2015 12:15pm Apr 23, 2015 12:15pm
Hi guys ! I get a tip .. maybe somebody can help me with my question ... I wanna ask u if somebody here does use 123 gap strategy ... i dont know it on 100% but it like this picture. I wanna learn this and I need some tips and help from experienced traders ... how to pick up best setups ... etc etc
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Bez názvu.png Size: 51 KB
"I'm not answering stupid questions."
  • #10,723
  • Apr 23, 2015 12:21pm Apr 23, 2015 12:21pm
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Hi VermillionAre you looking at Geppy today? The price seems exhausted at top somehow :-? Im looking for short opportunities over at 181.2 but it might not reach there :-s and GU is stalled at 1.505 i would short if it reach 1.513 though. What's your point of view on Gbp in general?
Price may dawdle for the pound sterling, but it will definitely move somewhere. Perhaps not too much, but it won't stay at 1.5070/60. If it breaks out of 1.5070, retests it, and it becomes a support, I'm eyeing 1.5130 as the 100% retracement of the march FOMC spike, with 1.5100 being a S/R in between. I am currently eyeing lower supports for the gbp/jpy, and depending on how many supports it penetrates & whether it stays below by the end of Friday, this may be the start of the movement down to 175 and possibly lower. But that'll take some time, assuming it happens.

If the cable drops, the geppy drops. The amount may not be proportional, but they tend to go together for now, so long as the current news in charge of the trend is about europe, U.K., or USA. If it's some update from Japan, then only the geppy might rise/fall.

The cable just hit its peak for April, and it seems to be treading below it for now....but then again, NY session is almost over. Honestly, Just watch 1.5070-1.5050 area for gbp/usd if you want a idea of where the gbp/jpy's headed. If it breaks below, follow the standard daily fibonacci retracement, with an added focus on the fib S/R from march FOMC spike retracement.
  • #10,724
  • Apr 23, 2015 12:31pm Apr 23, 2015 12:31pm
Quoting Malchi
Hi guys ! I get a tip .. maybe somebody can help me with my question ... I wanna ask u if somebody here does use 123 gap strategy ... i dont know it on 100% but it like this picture. I wanna learn this and I need some tips and help from experienced traders ... how to pick up best setups ... etc etc {image}
My answer isn't all that helpful since I don't trade chart patterns too much, but I will say what helped me actually make some degree of reliable income from trading:

Markets are not static.

They are organic. For all intents and purposes, then are living, breathing things that react of world events. Wars, economic data, false rumors/tweets, you name it. When you trade chart patterns as a means to set up a trade, then you're putting yourself at unnecessary risk. I'm not saying using the 123 gap strategy is wrong, but when you do use chart patterns, you should keep in mind what fundamentals are in play right now (i.e. current ongoing news/events), what is the overall fundamental direction in the long term (general state of economy in nations), and whether it is (relatively) overbought/oversold in the day. What I'm trying to say is that they should be one of the confirmations in setting up a trade, and never the primary one. Of course, this is my personal system, so if you can get yours working without these, then you should trade what works for you.

But if this isn't the case, then if all your other analysis works out with your patterns, then by all means, trade it. It should have a decent chance of working out. But don't try to get the best set-ups by using chart patterns alone. The best set-ups in intraday swing trends are often the riskiest, since whenever bulls & bears fight hard over a particular support/resistance, they often also have pretty big swings in one directions following a breakthrough.

However, you don't know whether the bulls or bears will win at that moment, and it really is not conducive to risk management when you're playing toss-up between two choices.
  • #10,725
  • Apr 23, 2015 3:04pm Apr 23, 2015 3:04pm
Hello all GBP/JPY is at an interesting place as we come to this weeks close. Looking to go long around 179.6 if we break lower, however 179.94 is a key DP. looking for hold at that DP if we hold a retraces from 180.26 then long there. Over all Bullish as we go into our final trading day of the week.
the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
  • #10,726
  • Edited 5:02pm Apr 23, 2015 4:26pm | Edited 5:02pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Price may dawdle for the pound sterling, but it will definitely move somewhere. Perhaps not too much, but it won't stay at 1.5070/60. If it breaks out of 1.5070, retests it, and it becomes a support, I'm eyeing 1.5130 as the 100% retracement of the march FOMC spike, with 1.5100 being a S/R in between. I am currently eyeing lower supports for the gbp/jpy, and depending on how many supports it penetrates & whether it stays below by the end of Friday, this may be the start of the movement down to 175 and possibly lower. But that'll take...
I think im sharing a common view with you here. Hope i can position in gu since we are at the same position as last election. Just a side experience that i wanna share with you (may be its not correct haha). I read from a paper that big player and bankers really want liquidity to fill in their position quicker. We had a month of consolidating at the bottom and a break up top would trigger buying pressure which would then provide a lot liquidity for big boy to fill in their sell position :-ss im just get confused some time. Im thinking that if big play want to make a false break up until 1.52 or 53. This theory confused me cause im not sure with market movement anymore :-sss and how to catch the institutional flow order :-s
  • #10,727
  • Edited 5:10pm Apr 23, 2015 4:39pm | Edited 5:10pm
Watch the higher tf's. It could yet be in a rounding top again. Seeing you all appear to enjoy chart patterns, these have occurred quite often in recent times - 187 was a very good visual example. They're best viewed on higher tf's ; price attempts to break up but is constrained and goes sort of sideways in what can sometimes look like a triangle. But like any triangle/sideways move, price completes part/most of the move in time rather than distance.

But it's another one that needs to prove itself.

Any break up would likely target 181.3/5. On the downside, it could just be a slow and messy decline, but rounding top/bottoms can sometimes depart with force.
  • #10,728
  • Apr 23, 2015 5:03pm Apr 23, 2015 5:03pm
Quoting Mpt
Watch the higher tf's. It could yet be in a rounding top again. Seeing you all appear to enjoy chart patterns, these have occurred quite often in recent times - 187 was a very good visual example. They're best viewed on higher tf's ; price attempts to break up but is constrained and goes sort of sideways in what can sometimes look like a triangle. But like any triangle/sideways move, price completes part/most of the move in time rather than distance. But it's another one that needs to prove itself. Any break up would likely target 181.3/5. On the...
that rounding move down is what I'm thinking is going to happen. Only time will tell. But with the elections coming a 500pip drop would prob be in order and with the time left before they happen it would fit that description? We'll see I guess
  • #10,729
  • Apr 23, 2015 6:27pm Apr 23, 2015 6:27pm
I'm back. After looking at EUR/USD and EUR/AUD this pair is all I know. The devil you know seems better than the one you don't. Short at 180.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,730
  • Edited 6:54pm Apr 23, 2015 6:43pm | Edited 6:54pm
Quoting raiders
{quote}that rounding move down is what I'm thinking is going to happen. Only time will tell. But with the elections coming a 500pip drop would prob be in order and with the time left before they happen it would fit that description? We'll see I guess
If you want a really good side by side analysis, compare the daily candles and horizontal support levels here with what happened the last time it launched from the bottom in early February. At that time 180.4 was expected to hold it, but it got up and over. After 179.6 was support for that up thrust, it never went back to nominal support at 179.3. So as and if it gives up 179.3, it falls
  • #10,731
  • Apr 23, 2015 10:45pm Apr 23, 2015 10:45pm
Quoting Mpt
{quote} If you want a really good side by side analysis, compare the daily candles and horizontal support levels here with what happened the last time it launched from the bottom in early February. At that time 180.4 was expected to hold it, but it got up and over. After 179.6 was support for that up thrust, it never went back to nominal support at 179.3. So as and if it gives up 179.3, it falls
dang, you're good at that past P A....glad to read it....
  • #10,732
  • Edited 1:06am Apr 24, 2015 12:52am | Edited 1:06am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Well, I guess it was partially right. We did have a bounce after hitting the fib support, but I entered to early. Had to leave the market at break even before the eur/usd bounced back from the 23.6% fib support at around 1.06700. I got a small long in after that, but missed most of the rise to 1.0840. Currently shorting eur/usd from 1.08440, and my targets are 1.08000, 1.07500, 1.07300/200, 1.07000, 1.06700 initially. TP set at 1.05700, but I'm thinking it's unlikely to happen in a single day. If we remain in the downside by the end of Friday...
Wow....18 pips in profit before hitting my stop loss due to Greek securing of debt causing a massive euro spike. Are you kidding me? this is old news. At least I locked in profits.

Just longed eur/usd at 1.08709 for a retest of 1.08950/1.0900. Let's scalp 20-30 pips.

Note: I'm TPing whatever I get before the German news comes out in 5 minutes. Definitely not staying around for that.

Update: Left with 8 pips in profit. Possibly more if German data propels the euro, but I'm not risking that. Who knows what the data will have. Trade closed in less than a minute after announcement....not bad.
  • #10,733
  • Edited 2:04am Apr 24, 2015 1:34am | Edited 2:04am
Going long again for the eur/usd at 1.08822. Not going to scalp 1.0900; Targeting 1.10~1.09600 instead. hard SL is 20 pips below, manual SL is active.

Update: Out at break even.

Now shorting from 1.08854. Initially targetting 1.0800, 1.07500, 1.0710/00, 1.06700.
  • #10,734
  • Apr 24, 2015 5:46am Apr 24, 2015 5:46am
Just put in my short. Plan on riding this one down if all goes well
  • #10,735
  • Apr 24, 2015 6:05am Apr 24, 2015 6:05am
Quoting raiders
Just put in my short. Plan on riding this one down if all goes well
Hmm....I don't know if this is ripe yet. I think it might try to push past 181.1 all the way to 181.6 to complete the descending resistance. I'm still holding longs until those levels.

Good luck and green pips.
Lost....
  • #10,736
  • Apr 24, 2015 6:15am Apr 24, 2015 6:15am
Quoting Vermillion
Going long again for the eur/usd at 1.08822. Not going to scalp 1.0900; Targeting 1.10~1.09600 instead. hard SL is 20 pips below, manual SL is active. Update: Out at break even. Now shorting from 1.08854. Initially targetting 1.0800, 1.07500, 1.0710/00, 1.06700.

Took profit for short at 1.08456. Price seemed hesitant.
  • #10,737
  • Apr 24, 2015 6:32am Apr 24, 2015 6:32am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} Hmm....I don't know if this is ripe yet. I think it might try to push past 181.1 all the way to 181.6 to complete the descending resistance. I'm still holding longs until those levels. Good luck and green pips.
Not infront of my comp right now, but it would break the channel if it went that high. Anything can happen and I have no idea what it will do. But my chart says short and my sl is at 182.25. Give me a few min and I will post
  • #10,738
  • Apr 24, 2015 6:36am Apr 24, 2015 6:36am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPYH1.png Size: 70 KB


cant really see it too well, but if i go down to a 1M you can see that it bounces sharply off the channel when the previous high was not quite there yet. Seems to be the proper move as of now. I guess only time will tell
  • #10,739
  • Apr 24, 2015 11:04am Apr 24, 2015 11:04am
Yes, short. One of the common traits of this pair is that it stalls and can do so for 4 days even. Then there can be one more stop run push and then down.

Let's have the goal becoming FOREX millionaires from this pair. It was an Abe advisor that compounded my woes. The pound was already rising and this was the left hook that blasted me;

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...-jgb-liquidity

600 pip run in 9 days. Still short at 180.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,740
  • Apr 24, 2015 12:52pm Apr 24, 2015 12:52pm
I would be cautious of shorts, not saying it wont go short (depending on your trading timeframe) mind you just be cautious at this point, a bit of retrace would be in order. I look at the weekly and see this pair likes to make you think its going to turn down, and at the last moment it reverses to resume long and leaves you hanging. Currently it has broke below my 50 ema (2/3 wks ago) and then reversed, then tested ema 50 dynamic resistance, it has done this 3 times since Oct 2014. Might retrace next week to the 179.25 ish or the 178 50 area (again) but I could be totally off.
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