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The Really Useless Thread

  • #134,161
  • Apr 23, 2015 8:04am Apr 23, 2015 8:04am
Quoting sisse
{quote} i meant what Tframe of reference are you tracking, otherwise its hard to follow since i don't know your trading style. {quote} Euro mainly. USD will only react indirectly to the greek noise except in a real panic/default leg in which dollar will prime on risk. Well time has changed a bit on the hikes since the beginning of the year. We were set for a June hike so euro parity leg in May was kind of the easy forecast. However, we have moved quite a lot since then (especially after the March Fomc) and still don't have a final clear date. For...
D1, w1, mn ... and for intraday h4 but mainly daily bar ...

sent you a pm please check and do reply if possible ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #134,162
  • Apr 23, 2015 8:33am Apr 23, 2015 8:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Euro mainly. USD will only react indirectly to the greek noise except in a real panic/default leg in which dollar will prime on risk. Well time has changed a bit on the hikes since the beginning of the year. We were set for a June hike so euro parity leg in May was kind of the easy forecast. However, we have moved quite a lot since then (especially after the March Fomc) and still don't have a final clear date. For now, markets are playing September Hike which will allow a couple of things before the hike leg down: Time for Europe to pick...
I agree. Based on the voice/noise of major banks (source: Bloomberg), "parity" at the end of Q2 is still on the table, but rate hike is believed to be in Sep.
Two reasons for "parity" at end of Q2:
- Major banks are Parity watchers (they are often in a hurry to book profits and tend to over-do things and they do it when nobody expects it, eg. the move down after Apr NFP, they couldn't test the real lows because sadly no everybody was on board, they sailed too early.)
- Greek real deadline being June 30th - July 20th

On the rate hike topic, I believe it is for the good of all to at least start the gradual hike. The longer 0 rate exists, the bigger long term consequences there will be. I think they will at least start it.
  • #134,163
  • Apr 23, 2015 8:48am Apr 23, 2015 8:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} <deleted for space> A breather in dollar to settle down and pullback before the hikes legs A further delay in hikes to 2016, etc will only kill euro volatility (dollar in general) in a extended wide chop zone for a few months which is not good at all for us traders. sisse
Inserted Video
  • #134,164
  • Apr 23, 2015 9:10am Apr 23, 2015 9:10am
Vicious intraday flows in the euro and nasty opening range inside of very noisy chop zone. A bunch misses in the US front and details/gossips from the Greek drama flooding the markets as expected. Between deal with default and deal without it seems to be the latest.

The tweet/gossip it's going to get a lot worst the closer we get to tomorrow.

As we stand right now, the new deal seems like a done deal (some haircuts and extensions as mentioned in the noise yesterdays) but the last line is allowing Greece to default (or not) in some small payments to open the technicalities for renegotiation without having to expel Greece from the Euro Zone.

From how the markets reacted last week and from current market environment we are setting for finally witnessing the first controlled Greek Default in the coming days.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,165
  • Apr 23, 2015 9:14am Apr 23, 2015 9:14am
lol "controlled default".

Wish my creditors were as lenient. Oh you missed your house payment? Here, try again next month. Here's a bit more money to help jump start your failed trading career for the 4th year in a row- you'll get it this time!
  • #134,166
  • Apr 23, 2015 9:18am Apr 23, 2015 9:18am
Quoting Pharm0r
lol "controlled default". Wish my creditors were as lenient. Oh you missed your house payment? Here, try again next month. Here's a bit more money to help jump start your failed trading career for the 4th year in a row- you'll get it this time!
  • #134,167
  • Apr 23, 2015 9:23am Apr 23, 2015 9:23am
Quoting Pharm0r
lol "controlled default". Wish my creditors were as lenient. Oh you missed your house payment? Here, try again next month. Here's a bit more money to help jump start your failed trading career for the 4th year in a row- you'll get it this time!
definitively lol....

I am heading to my bank to see what they say about me negotiating a "controlled default" and then asking to the branch next door to extend me a new loan to pay for my expenses next few months...

sisse

PS: we are getting some official confirmation of the deal ....right now...watchoout for stops triggering at the top...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,168
  • Apr 23, 2015 9:51am Apr 23, 2015 9:51am
Quoting sisse
{quote} definitively lol.... I am heading to my bank to see what they say about me negotiating a "controlled default" and then asking to the branch next door to extend me a new loan to pay for my expenses next few months... sisse PS: we are getting some official confirmation of the deal ....right now...watchoout for stops triggering at the top...
ECB might take the brunt as getting Greece out of EZ may not be good for them too.
  • #134,169
  • Apr 23, 2015 9:54am Apr 23, 2015 9:54am
...and that was it for the session.

Soft stops run at the intraday highs.

It's crunching time for short risk swing. Do or kill for short now as highs are unprotected ... There is not much to do except wait to see how it pans out. Same levels, same trades, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #134,170
  • Apr 23, 2015 10:35am Apr 23, 2015 10:35am
no time atm

took shorts, upper mofu is 0807 stops above last swing high

a close below 0807 and ill keep 'em

0806 is one off another chart so is 0821, ATR is 0818 (current high is 0820)

lots of reasons
  • #134,171
  • Apr 23, 2015 10:49am Apr 23, 2015 10:49am
Quoting Pharm0r
no time atm took shorts, upper mofu is 0807 stops above last swing high a close below 0807 and ill keep 'em 0806 is one off another chart so is 0821, ATR is 0818 (current high is 0820) lots of reasons
which atr is this 3 - 5 - 7 ?on what day start and around what? Thanks
  • #134,172
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:01am Apr 23, 2015 11:01am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} which atr is this 3 - 5 - 7 ?on what day start and around what? Thanks
Sorry was multi-tasking when I posted.

I belive you were the one that said I should use ATR when I inquired about it a few months ago....best decision ever made- thanks for that.

Not sure what the setting are, something I got from kill56's graveyard thread. I want to say its 14 periods, posts a high and low ATR....has been damn accurate. Not precise to the pip, but once ATR is stretched on this one, and a S/R matches, it's usually a no brainer. I'll post setting when I get home in 4 hours or so
  • #134,173
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:04am Apr 23, 2015 11:04am
0801 close, under 0807, both h1 and h4

had to keep a bit of a wider stop, had I not been running anti-virus program and waiting for my computer to boot, i would have caught that at 0820....now I'm sitting in at 0807
  • #134,174
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:15am Apr 23, 2015 11:15am
Holy CAD, guess it wont be getting to that retest I mentioned last week
  • #134,175
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:24am Apr 23, 2015 11:24am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Sorry was multi-tasking when I posted. I belive you were the one that said I should use ATR when I inquired about it a few months ago....best decision ever made- thanks for that. Not sure what the setting are, something I got from kill56's graveyard thread. I want to say its 14 periods, posts a high and low ATR....has been damn accurate. Not precise to the pip, but once ATR is stretched on this one, and a S/R matches, it's usually a no brainer. I'll post setting when I get home in 4 hours or so
Thanks, ATR did not match with mine that's why I was asking. And YW, yes we discussed ATR lately. It is good to hear you use them
  • #134,176
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:42am Apr 23, 2015 11:42am
so.. who wants to call the top

if no break upside (1.0830) , I want to see a roll around 1.0770. I do like these levels I just didnt think we would be here right now.
  • #134,177
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:51am Apr 23, 2015 11:51am
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Thanks, ATR did not match with mine that's why I was asking. And YW, yes we discussed ATR lately. It is good to hear you use them

Looks to be the 30 day on yours. Maybe need a new feature showing 3 day, weekly and monthly on the chart
  • #134,178
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:53am Apr 23, 2015 11:53am
uh oh, may bail here soon
  • #134,179
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:55am Apr 23, 2015 11:55am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Looks to be the 30 day on yours. Maybe need a new feature showing 3 day, weekly and monthly on the chart
Nope I have 5 with 1.0791
  • #134,180
  • Apr 23, 2015 11:56am Apr 23, 2015 11:56am
Quoting darimik
so.. who wants to call the top if no break upside (1.0830) , I want to see a roll around 1.0770. I do like these levels I just didnt think we would be here right now.
For today about 835-845.
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