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Dragon Riders GBP/JPY

  • #10,581
  • Apr 20, 2015 8:56am Apr 20, 2015 8:56am
I know it's not the popular opinion but I still see this going higher. 181.9ish before lower. Also could be wrong but on the 1 hour chart inverted head and shoulders?
  • #10,582
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:27am Apr 20, 2015 9:27am
Quoting raiders
I know it's not the popular opinion but I still see this going higher. 181.9ish before lower. Also could be wrong but on the 1 hour chart inverted head and shoulders?
Indeed and well supported at the 120 and 220 EMA lines on the H1. I could see 179.50.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,583
  • Apr 20, 2015 9:35am Apr 20, 2015 9:35am
Quoting Temujin
{quote} Indeed and well supported at the 120 and 220 EMA lines on the H1. I could see 179.50.
We'll see what happens. I also see a H/S formation on the 1hour. The 4hr/daily shows an inverted H/S which means this maybe going up in the long term. However, I think (or hope) that this re-tests the 175.7 level first before going up to the moon.
Lost....
  • #10,584
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:00am Apr 20, 2015 10:00am
EA
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  • #10,585
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:47am Apr 20, 2015 10:47am
Quoting gespiri
{quote} We'll see what happens. I also see a H/S formation on the 1hour. The 4hr/daily shows an inverted H/S which means this maybe going up in the long term. However, I think (or hope) that this re-tests the 175.7 level first before going up to the moon.
Agreed, H4 indicates another leg lower before a bullish channel is established. This is like a fake interim channel.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,586
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:48am Apr 20, 2015 10:48am
just got back into my ea long. 1.423 target.
  • #10,587
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:52am Apr 20, 2015 10:52am
Since we're talking h&s, I'll leave this here

Edit: Candlestick formations aren't really my type of trading, but this is a proper h&s formation right? high left shoulder, very high head, lower-than-left right shoulder
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  • #10,588
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:57am Apr 20, 2015 10:57am
On the other side of the coin, China is going to initiate stimulus and stocks are higher. There is some risk appetite coming back in. The UK election however is muddled and the bank of Japan won't send another wave until OCT. supposedly. The safer bet could possibly be a short on the retest or until. Many times I've just stared at these charts on the D1 and and H4 and I still see lower before higher. The algos will just provide the short term appearance of a rising channel when banks could be scaling into sell orders the entire time. You have to be razor sharp and paranoid about these indecisive places.

Still working a regular job and don't have the time or energy to scalp yet. Back to my H4. Very scary to be incorrect with that kind of chart. Time and prices can can knock my lights out.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #10,589
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:59am Apr 20, 2015 10:59am
Quoting alexpi
Since we're talking h&s, I'll leave this here Edit: Candlestick formations aren't really my type of trading, but this is a proper h&s formation right? high left shoulder, very high head, lower-than-left right shoulder {image}
That is also a valid scenario. Time will tell. However, I don't think that BOJ will let the yen strengthen that much. I expect a big decisive move just before the UK election regardless of who wins.
Lost....
  • #10,590
  • Apr 20, 2015 11:01am Apr 20, 2015 11:01am
Quoting Temujin
On the other side of the coin, China is going to initiate stimulus and stocks are higher. There is some risk appetite coming back in. The UK election however is muddled and the bank of Japan won't send another wave until OCT. supposedly. The safer bet could possibly be a short on the retest or until. Many times I've just stared at these charts on the D1 and and H4 and I still see lower before higher. The algos will just provide the short term appearance of a rising channel when banks could be scaling into sell orders the entire time. You have to...
Lost....
  • #10,591
  • Apr 20, 2015 11:02am Apr 20, 2015 11:02am
Quoting raiders
I know it's not the popular opinion but I still see this going higher. 181.9ish before lower. Also could be wrong but on the 1 hour chart inverted head and shoulders?
Sorry for my late reply. Yes, it can go higher. As a matter of fact, if the cable goes to the major 100% retracemnet back to the march FOMC spike, we should expect gbp/jpy to be around 180~181.

However, that spike itself was completely unnatural (a false flag pump & dump), so I'm leaning towards downside. Also, refrain from using chart patterns as determinants for trade. You can use it to confirm a new trend/resumed movements, but it's very risky to rely on chart patterns alone. And by very risky, I mean "suicidal in the long term" risky.

Always keep fundamentals & ongoing trend in mind.

I'm not saying you're wrong; we may rise right now, range and then rise, or just drop down a few supports and rise. However, it's too soon to make any predictions for the pound sterling, especially since we've now only 2 weeks before the U.K. elections come into play.

Trade what you see. Everything else is just noise.

Currently risking 2 shorts for eur/usd at 1.07406, 1.07303. hard SL at 1.077, subject to manual close upon triggering soft SL. Targets......1.0670, 1.06300, 1.0600.

Possibly lower, but the cable will find decent support around 1.47600, so those targets are all I'm targeting for the eur/usd for now.

If the eur/usd does hit 1.0500 within 24 hours (very unlikely), I'm taking profit there. I don't care if it goes lower to make new yearly lows; 1.0500 is a price I'll have to take profit at no matter what.
  • #10,592
  • Apr 20, 2015 11:04am Apr 20, 2015 11:04am
^I like that and completely agree on chart patterns being suicidal. I learned a long time ago that hunting for shooting stars is a very good way to get shooting balances
  • #10,593
  • Apr 20, 2015 11:35am Apr 20, 2015 11:35am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Sorry for my late reply. Yes, it can go higher. As a matter of fact, if the cable goes to the major 100% retracemnet back to the march FOMC spike, we should expect gbp/jpy to be around 180~181. However, that spike itself was completely unnatural (a false flag pump & dump), so I'm leaning towards downside. Also, refrain from using chart patterns as determinants for trade. You can use it to confirm a new trend/resumed movements, but it's very risky to rely on chart patterns alone. And by very risky, I mean "suicidal in the long term" risky....
I just use the patterns as targets for theories Im already holding.

As far as the GJ long, i havent jumped in yet and not sure I will at this level. but if we go back to the 14th, weve been going up. could be some consolidation. Im not sure anyone will know until we know. but, the jpy still isnt telling me to buy it.

more than that, the usd could be getting very weak very soon. where does the money go when it leaves the usd? stocks in europe have been kicking ass. currencies usually follow the stocks yes? if this premise holds true, ill be riding that gbp till the wheels fall off
  • #10,594
  • Apr 20, 2015 11:59am Apr 20, 2015 11:59am
Quoting alexpi
Since we're talking h&s, I'll leave this here Edit: Candlestick formations aren't really my type of trading, but this is a proper h&s formation right? high left shoulder, very high head, lower-than-left right shoulder {image}
I believed that we might get a bit higher for this right shoulder ..
  • #10,595
  • Apr 20, 2015 1:32pm Apr 20, 2015 1:32pm
[quote=raiders;8217119]just got back into my ea long. 1.423 target.[/quote
Hey there, I was trying to reply to the earlier post about ea....
on Sundays, we buy the crap out of it at 1 or 2 am New York time.....before that half the time,... depending on P A
Sometimes it goes 340 pips by U. S. open on a Sunday....
  • #10,596
  • Apr 20, 2015 2:15pm Apr 20, 2015 2:15pm
[quote=Gbp/jpy;8217379]
Quoting raiders
just got back into my ea long. 1.423 target.[/quote Hey there, I was trying to reply to the earlier post about ea.... on Sundays, we buy the crap out of it at 1 or 2 am New York time.....before that half the time,... depending on P A Sometimes it goes 340 pips by U. S. open on a Sunday....
im not sure i follow. so you're buying it sat night? Do you do this regularly?
  • #10,597
  • Apr 20, 2015 7:32pm Apr 20, 2015 7:32pm
The issue of chart patterns can be taken to extreme. But their essence is that they absolutely have to confirm. Just because something looks like a H&S or a crab or other such concocted thing does not mean they are real.

One of the few patterns I trust is the diamond reversal/continuation - mainly because they work and can give accurate targets. We had such a pattern which was centred on the FOMC spike some weeks ago. It looked like a diamond, but took ages to confirm. When it broke out and retested, it gave a conservative downside destination of height (385 ish pips) applied to break out retest (178.7) of 174.8. It got to target within a few pips.

The more aggressive downside target was height times 1.618, being 172.5. That hasn't happened.

So far this thing has failed to get over 178/178.2. Should it break up, then 179+ is logical. But in the event that it does not, the H&S idea could become valid. And, curiously, any fall back that had it back to 175.5 would possibly target the H&S height at break down. Allowing for some false breaks earlier, the height applied to break under 175.5 would suggest 172.5 or so.

But as I wrote at the outset, it would really have to confirm - a break under 176.5/6 would be a good start. Until then, it's a throw of the dice.
  • #10,598
  • Apr 20, 2015 7:37pm Apr 20, 2015 7:37pm
Quoting Mpt
The issue of chart patterns can be taken to extreme. But their essence is that they absolutely have to confirm. Just because something looks like a H&S or a crab or other such concocted thing does not mean they are real. One of the few patterns I trust is the diamond reversal/continuation - mainly because they work and can give accurate targets. We had such a pattern which was centred on the FOMC spike some weeks ago. It looked like a diamond, but took ages to confirm. When it broke out and retested, it gave a conservative downside...
I could not have worded it better myself.
  • #10,599
  • Edited 8:09pm Apr 20, 2015 7:56pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting raiders
{quote} more than that, the usd could be getting very weak very soon. where does the money go when it leaves the usd? stocks in europe have been kicking ass. currencies usually follow the stocks yes? if this premise holds true, ill be riding that gbp till the wheels fall off
We are arguably in a global bubble still, but really, the upcoming U.S. presidential elections & the economic policies that the new president will take is the key thing to watch out for. I think George Soros also mentioned the election; the U.S. is showing improvement, but the major potential stumbling block is the elections. But for the time being (mid term), the money is unlikely to leave the USD overall for 2015. 2016 is a different question due to the presidential elections.

The only reason why euro stocks are doing better is because of the QE and aggressive investors from countries like China are cashing in on the temporary stimulus for the Euro as a potential investment opportunity. HOWEVER, a moderate recovery for european stocks for now isn't a reason to invest in european businesses or the euro. Government bonds? Sure. But the euro itself is still slated to devalue further.

I mentioned a few months ago that the ECB's QE program will probably start a recovery by late spring/early summer, which it's showing right now. But this is only a stopgap solution. We need something more tangible before I change my yearly view of the euro.

People have been saying that the dollar has been overvalued against the yen since 2012, 2013 when it started going up and up. But really, if you have to choose between the two for long run, I'd choose fundamentals over technical. The U.S.'s recent string of bad data is but a minor blimp in the quarterly outlook, let alone the yearly.

I actually ended up dragging this post FAR longer than necessary, but basically, what I'm saying is that the U.S. is in good shape....for now. It is NOT slated for any significant weakening in mid-term outlook with the current given events and information. The u.S. pretty much suffered the years 2008-2011 through its interventions as a means of paving the road for the current recovery. Sure, these economic policies raised our deficit, but the economy itself is in a far better shape than it would have been if we had left gov. actions relatively inactive, which Europe and Japan did when compared to the USA. Come to think of it, didn't the Eurozone start getting these issues becoming increasingly noticeable to the public at around 2010, 2011, when the U.S. was getting through the worst of it? The main issue to overcome now is to not drop the proverbial ball.

Obama didn't do a perfect job (well actually, the policies were done by guys in FOMC and the Federal Reserve), but it was far better than nothing. I mean, if the government let all the "big businesses" fail in the recession without bailing them out, it would've caused a catastrophic chain reaction in the U.S. labor, investment, and production markets. I still find it funny that people were screaming "let them die" a few years ago. Let some fail? Okay. But ALL? Yeahhhhhhhh....no.
  • #10,600
  • Apr 20, 2015 8:40pm Apr 20, 2015 8:40pm
The interesting thing here is that the upside break argument could bring a totally different medium - and maybe longer term - outcome from the direct down approach.

Direct down breaks to 175 and (possibly) new lows, then more than likely tries to reclaim 175/176 later and if it fails, falls down again.

Over 178x goes to 179x, falls back towards 176.5, maybe back up again to about 180/181 but eventually/probably survives at about 173/174 to become bullish. Essentially a semi bullish wedge.

Quite different outcomes, dependent on what happens around here. This is probably where its future is mapped out.
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